MIT Energy Laboratory

Steam generator tube rupture study

2019-04-12T13:31:08Z

Steam generator tube rupture study Free, Scott Thomas; Schor, Andrei L. This report describes our investigation of steam generator behavior during a postulated tube rupture accident. Our study was performed using the steam generator, thermal-hydraulic analysis code THERMIT-UTSG. The purpose of our work was to provide an independent assessment of the Los Alamos National Laboratory system code TRAC-PF1 with respect to steam generator tube rupture analysis. Results of our work are presented and compared with previous TRAC-PF1 results. There are substantial differences in the results of the two codes. These discrepancies are discussed and deficiencies in both codes are noted. Our results lead us to believe that further investigation and code development are necessary to gain more than a basic understanding of steam generator behavior during such accidents and to provide a simulation capability that is acceptable.

Final report on Canadian-U.S. natural gas trade

2019-04-11T01:25:49Z

Final report on Canadian-U.S. natural gas trade

Economic predictions for heat mining : a review and analysis of hot dry rock (HDR) geothermal energy technology

2019-04-10T16:58:19Z

Economic predictions for heat mining : a review and analysis of hot dry rock (HDR) geothermal energy technology Tester, Jefferson W.; Herzog, Howard J. The main objectives of this study were first, to review and analyze several economic assessments of Hot Dry Rock (HDR) geothermal energy systems, and second, to reformulate an economic model for HDR with revised cost components.; A general evaluation of the technical feasibility of HDR technology components was also conducted in view of their importance in establishing drilling and reservoir performance parameters required for any economic assessment (see Sections 2-5). In our review, only economic projections for base load electricity produced from HDR systems were considered. Bases of 1989 dollars ($) were selected to normalize costs.; Following the evaluation of drilling and reservoir performance, power plant choices and cost estimates are discussed in Section 6. In Section 7, the six economic studies cited earlier are reviewed and compared in terms of their key resource, reservoir and plant performance, and cost assumptions. Based on these comparisons, we have estimated parameters for three composite cases. Important parameters include: (1) resource quality--average geothermal gradient (oC/km) and well depth, (2) reservoir performance--effective productivity, flow impedance, and lifetime (thermal drawdown rate), (3) cost components--drilling, reservoir formation, and power plant costs and (4) economic factors--discount and interest rates, taxes, etc. In Section 8, composite case conditions were used to reassess economic projections for HDRproduced electricity. In Section 9, a generalized economic model for HDR-produced electricity is presented to show the effects of resource grade, reservoir performance parameters, and other important factors on projected costs. A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using this model is given in Section 10. Section 11 treats a modification of the economic model for predicting costs for direct, non-electric applications. HDR economic projections for the U.S. are broken down by region in Section 12. In Section 13, we provide recommendations for continued research and development to reduce technical and economic uncertainties relevant to the commercialization of HDR.

Modelling energy-economy interactions in small developing countries : a case study of Sri Lanka

2019-04-12T11:48:19Z

Modelling energy-economy interactions in small developing countries : a case study of Sri Lanka Blitzer, Charles R.; Eckaus, Richard S. This report is addressed at modelling energy-economy interactions in small developing countries, those with populations less than 20 million or so and where neither the industrial or energy sectors are dominant. The overall objectives of the research were to learn more about how energy-economy interactions can be usefully modelled for policy purposes, to compare the pros and cons of alternative methods which have been used previously, and to test the feasibility of utilizing simple general equilibrium models by constructing an illustrative model for Sri Lanka.; Various approaches to energy policy analysis--project evaluation, technology assessment, energy sector assessment, macro simulation models, economy-wide optimization models, and computable general equilibrium models-- are surveyed and critically reviewed. A major deficiency of all but the latter two is their failure to account for the important two-way interactions between energy and the rest of the economy which are common in developing countries.; The latter models are general in scope and can include the important energy-economy relationships. Since the computable general equilibrium models are somewhat easier to formulate and solve, they seen most appropriate for the type of countries under consideration. These types of models can analyze a large number of interrelated issues such as: the impact of energy costs and prices on aggregate growth and its sectoral composition; the relationship between energy imports, investment rates, and the balance of payments; the scope for substitution between energy and other factors of substitution; and the effect of energy prices on income distribution and employment.; The Sri Lanka model is meant to illustrate how a simple computable general equilibrium model focussing on these issues can be built rather quickly in a situation with substantial data limitations. The model was constructed with data from existing sources, supplemented by some minimal econometric estimation, and was designed to run on a personal computer.; The model includes eleven sectors: (1) paddy and other annual agricultural crops; (2) tree crops; (3) industry; (4) transportation: (5) housing; (6) services; (7) refined petroleum products; (8) electricity; (9) non-competing imports; (10) crude oil: and (11) traditional fuels. Prices determine factor allocations, production, and final demands. Trade flows are adjusted to ensure that total supply equals total usage. For the tradable goods, prices are exogenous. Electricity prices also are set by government policy. The model calculates prices for transportation and housing which insure supply/demand equilibrium for these non-traded sectors. The model is "closed" by specifying a rule for relating aggregate investment and the balance of payments deficit to national income (GDP). In some cases, the trade deficit is fixed in terms of GDP, and in others aggregate investment is fixed as a share of national income.; Starting from a base year of 1983, the model simulates developments through 1989. Several alternative solutions are discussed to demonstrate how parametric changes can show the sensitivity of key variables to changes in prices, economic policy, and the external environment.

Final report to the National Science Foundation of the project on cartel behavior and exhaustible resource supply : a case study of the world oil market.

2019-04-11T01:25:48Z

Final report to the National Science Foundation of the project on cartel behavior and exhaustible resource supply : a case study of the world oil market.

Numerical simulation of fish larvae entrainment at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station

2019-04-12T11:48:19Z

Numerical simulation of fish larvae entrainment at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station Dimou, Nadia K.

Flue gas desulfurization : cost and functional analysis of large-scale and proven plants

2019-04-11T01:25:47Z

Flue gas desulfurization : cost and functional analysis of large-scale and proven plants Tilly, Jean Flue Gas Desulfurization is a method of controlling the emission of sulfurs, which causes the acid rain. The following study is based on 26 utilities which burn coal, have a generating capacity of at least 50 Megawatts (MW) and whose Flue Gas Desulfurization devices have been operating for at least 5 years. An analysis is made of the capital and annual costs of these systems using a comparison of four main processes: lime, limestone, dual alkali and sodium carbonate scrubbing. The functional analysis, based on operability, allows a readjustment of the annual costs and a determination of the main reasons for failure. Finally four detailed case studies are analyzed and show the evolution of cost and operability along the years.

Appliance purchase and usage adaptation to a permanent time of day electricity rate schedule

2019-04-12T11:48:18Z

Appliance purchase and usage adaptation to a permanent time of day electricity rate schedule Hausman, Jerry A.; Trimble, John L.

Sinterable ceramic powders from laser heated gas phase reactions and rapidly solidified ceramic materials : annual report.

2019-04-12T11:48:17Z

Sinterable ceramic powders from laser heated gas phase reactions and rapidly solidified ceramic materials : annual report. Haggerty, John Scarseth CO[subscript 2] lasers have been employed to heat reactant gases to synthesize Si, Si[subscript 3] N[subscript 4] and SiC powders. The powders are small, uniform in size, nonagglomerated, highly pure and of controlled crystallinity; all parameters considered ideal for fabrication of defect-free ceramic parts. The unique and uniform time-temperature histories achievable with laser heating permit these important characteristics to be realized.; Dispersions of Si powders have been made and characterized extensively. These results have defined an appropriate strategy for making concentrated dispersions and have confirmed earlier preliminary results. Zeta-potential and photon correlation spectrometry have been used to study the effects of water contamination in the alcohol dispersants. Based on current results, we believe that concentrated dispersions will be achieved with steric rather than coulombic stabilization. Coulombic repulsive forces are effective only with dilute dispersions.; Manufacturing cost analysis shows that submicron powders can be made at lower cost with gas phase processes than with comminution proceses. The laser heat source does not contribute significantly to the total costs. Total manufacturing costs are dominated by even lower than present actual feed stock (SiH[subscript 4]) costs. Recent cost reductions indicate that acceptable SIH[subscript 4] costs may be realized soon.; Surface tensions of Al[subscript 2] 0[subscript 3] based melts with MgO, Cr[subscript 2]0[subscript 3], Ti0[subscript 2] and ZrO[subscript 2] additives have been measured In neutral, oxidizing and reducing atmospheres. A new procedure was developed to analyize pendant drops which permits high precisions with the short maximum drop lengths that are characteristic of these materials. A C0[subscript 2] laser heat source was used to melt the polycrystalline feed rods.; Molten oxide drops were splat quenched using a copper piston and anvil quenching apparatus. Approximately 500 samples of 10 oxide materials have been made. These samples are being characterized with respect to crystallinity, grain size, hardness, K[subscript IC] and surface composition. These results will be reported in the future.

Natural gas pipelines after field price decontrol : a study of risk, return and regulation

2019-04-09T17:49:56Z

Natural gas pipelines after field price decontrol : a study of risk, return and regulation Carpenter, Paul R. This is a study of a regulated industry undergoing rapid change. For the first time in its history, following the partial decontrol of field prices in 1978, natural gas is being priced at a level which places it in direct competition with competing fuels, chiefly oil. This change is placing considerable stress on the established institutional relationships in the gas industry and is the source of what has been and will continue to be a protracted public policy debate on the subject. It is the chief purpose of this study to interpret the effect of this change on the gas pipeline segment of the industry and its regulation.; A second purpose is to explore the use of information from the capital market's valuation of natural gas pipeline securities, both as a means of characterizing the industry transition in the terms of financial economics and of evaluating the financial performance of the pipelines (and thus indirectly their regulators) during the transition. As such, the continuing decontrol of field prices constitutes a convenient "natural experiment" that allows us to characterize the likely nature of the gas industry of the future and ultimately to evaluate the various proposals for changing it.; To accomplish these purposes, the study is divided into five parts. After describing the principal structural characteristics, transactional arrangements and regulatory procedures in the industry, the study investigates the origins and historical evolution of these features. This history is important in establishing the role of natural gas field price and pipeline regulatory policy and market conditions in determining the nature of the transactional arrangements prevalent today in the industry. This section closes with some conventional measures of the extent of the post-1978 transition and the disequilibrium that now exists between gas market conditions, regulatory policy and industry transactional arrangments.; In the next two chapters the tools of modern financial economics are used to characterize the effects of the industry transition on the systematic risk borne by gas pipeline industry investors. A significant secular increase in pipeline industry risk is found to persist during the transition period after 1978, an increase that is found to be directly associated with the partial decontrol of field prices. Other sources of risk are examined including what is termed "contractual leverage"--the leverage induced by rigid pipeline contractual relationships. These results are used to evaluate pipeline financial (and thus regulatory) performance during the transition. A significant deterioration in gas pipeline profitability is detected during this period.; The study closes with an examination of the industry's transactional arrangements as they serve to allocate these risks under regulatory service obligations. It is observed that the current regulatory regime ratifies the longstanding transactional arrangements which bundle rights to gas reserves with rights to pipeline capacity. A substantial exogenous change in the risk conditions in the industry may require a regulatory regime which allows for more flexibility in gas supply transactions. It is suggested that to achieve this flexibility it may be necessary to unbundle the two types of rights, allowing a separate, unregulated market for gas reserves and production to form. This could lead to the formation of a liquid spot and futures market for gas, with consequential informational advantages for the rest of the market. This unbundling might be achieved with pipeline deregulation or a system of common carriage, the feasibility of which is examined in a preliminary manner.

Users manual for the LIMIT code : b hydrogen analysis in reactor containments Vincent P. Manno, Michael W. Golay.

2019-04-12T11:48:16Z

Users manual for the LIMIT code : b hydrogen analysis in reactor containments Vincent P. Manno, Michael W. Golay. Manno, V.; Golay, M. The LIMIT code is a new containment analysis code capable of simulating hydrogen transport events. The BEACON [1] code served as the foundation upon which LIMIT is built. The analytical aspects of LIMIT's features are documented in the work of Manno and Golay [2]. This document is the code users manual. It is assumed that the user also possesses the original BEACON code manual since both documents are required for code utilization.

The Commonwealth Electric Open Planning Project : final report

2019-04-09T17:41:57Z

The Commonwealth Electric Open Planning Project : final report Andrews, Clinton J. This report describes the development, application and results of an Open Planning Process performed by the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory's Analysis Group for Regional Electricity Alternatives (AGREA) for, and with the support and close cooperation of the Commonwealth Electric Company (COM/Elec).

Adsorption of inorganic contaminants in ponded effluents from coal-fired power plants

2019-04-11T03:39:48Z

Adsorption of inorganic contaminants in ponded effluents from coal-fired power plants Dzombak, David A.; Morel, Franȯis The objectives of this study were [1] to conduct some experimental tests of the surface precipitation adsorption model, and [2] to work on the development of a simple yet widely applicable approach to modelling adsorption of inorganic ions on oxide surfaces. The latter represents the first portion of our continuing effort to develop a data base for adsorption of inorganic contaminants in oxide suspensions.; An investigation of the kinetics of cadmium adsorption on hydrous ferric oxide at different initial adsorbate/adsorbent ratios was conducted as a partial test of the surface precipitation model. Kibetics of cadmium adsorption were observed to slow considerably as the adsorbate/adsorbent ratio was increased. The results confirm our hypothesis that adsorption kinetics should decrease as the adsorbate/adsorbent ratio is increased because of the shift from surface complexation to surface precipitation as the dominant adsorption mechanism.; A number of constant pH equilibrium adsorption experiments with cadmium and hydrous ferric oxide were conducted in order to verify the isotherm predicted by the surface precipitation model. A recently published, extensive isotherm for zinc adsorption on hydrous ferric oxide was also examined. This investigation revealed that cation adsorption isotherms exhibit adsorptive saturation at high adsorbate concentrations and that the smooth transition from adsorption to precipitation predicted by the surface precipitation model occurs above this saturation. To model these data, a two site-type model with surface precipitation on weak binding sites is needed.; As the first step in our effort to develop a data base for adsorption of inorganics, we reviewed available adsorption data and surface complexation models and identified a modelling approach capable of describing all existing data. The model that we propose is a two site surface complexation model with surface precipitation on weak binding sites, combined with the diffuse layer model for electrostatic corrections. For proton and anion binding, two site-types and surface precipitation will usually not be necessary - these refinements are included for accurate description of cation binding. The basic diffuse layer surface complexation model is thus the nucleus of the proposed universal model.

Fundamental aspects of coal-water fuel droplet combustion and secondary atomization of coal-water mixtures. Volume II, final report

2019-04-11T01:25:46Z

Fundamental aspects of coal-water fuel droplet combustion and secondary atomization of coal-water mixtures. Volume II, final report Beř, J. M.; Sarofim, Adel F. This Final Report is issued in two volumes, covering research into the combustion of Coal Water Fuels (CWF). Two separate but related tasks are discussed; Volume I contains results obtained under Task 1 - Fundamental aspects of Coal-Water Fuel Droplet Combustion in which the experiments were carried out in Laminar Flow Reactors. The present report, Volume II, covers experiments under Task 2 - "Secondary Atomization of Coal-Water Mixtures".; Three methods of improving spray fineness by fuel treatment were investigated - 1) the heating of the CWF under pressure to produce steam as the pressure drops during passage of the CWF through the atomizer nozzle 2) the absorption of CO02 gas in the CWF to produce a similar effect, and 3) the addition of a chemical additive which will cause microexplosions in the droplets upon heating. These treatments are expected to produce disruptive atomization, i.e., the disintegration of slurry droplets subsequent to their leaving the atomizing nozzle, and therefore to yield better burnout and finer fly ash particle size distribution upon combustion. The effects of disruptive atomization upon CWF spray size distribution were studied using a spray test chamber equipped with a laser diffraction particle size analyzer; the data were fitted to the Rosin-Rammler particle size distribution function. The combustion characteristics of the treated CWFs were investigated in the MIT Combustion Research Facility.; The spray chamber tests established that thermally-assisted atomization produced reductions both in the mean droplet size and in the mass fraction of large particles in the spray. For fuel delivery temperatures up to 100*C this effect is attributable to lowered fuel viscosity, while further heat of the CWF (to 1500C in these experiments) produces disruptive atomization.; In-flame measurements and high speed cine pictures made during combustion tests provided detailed information for comparisons of treated and untreated CWF. Thermally-assisted atomization was the most effective of the methods studied for improving carbon conversion efficiency and reducing fly ash particle size. CO02 and picric acid addition techniques showed substantial improvements but they were less effective.

Continued development of nodal methods for reactor analysis

2019-04-12T11:48:16Z

Continued development of nodal methods for reactor analysis Henry, Allan F.; Dias, Antonio Fernando Vilhena; Francis, Winston H. G.; Parlos, Alexander George; Tanker, Ediz; Tanker, Zeynep

Fundamental aspects of coal-water fuel droplet combustion and secondary atomization of coal-water mixtures. Volume I, final report

2019-04-12T11:48:15Z

Fundamental aspects of coal-water fuel droplet combustion and secondary atomization of coal-water mixtures. Volume I, final report Sarofim, Adel F.; Beř, J. M. This Final Report is issued in two volumes, covering research into the combustion of coal-water fuels (CWF). Two separate but related tasks are discussed; the present report, Volume I, contains results obtained under Task 1 - "Fundamental Aspects of Coal- Water Fuel Droplet Combustion." Volume II describes the work of Task 2 - "Secondary Atomization of Coal Water Mixtures," which included experimental measurements in a Spray Test Facility and in the 1-3 MWth Combustion Research Facility.; The processes of devolatilization and char combustion were studied in a laminar flow reactor (LFR) by two experimental procedures. In the first of these, a CWF droplet generator was developed and used to feed CWF droplets directly into the LFR. The CWF droplet generator, which consists of a twin-fluid, internally-mixed atomizer and a series of skimmers to reduce the feed rate of droplets into the LFR, is capable of producing CWF droplets in the size range of 5-500 micrometers at feed rates of less than 3 mg/sec.; In the second parallel study, solid samples withdrawn from a CWF spray flame, close to the atomizing nozzle, were size graded and fed into the LFR in low particle concentrations. Their combustion history in the LFR was determined by monitoring the intensity of radiation emitted by individual particles during combustion (by two-color pyrometry) and by the use of high speed cinematography.; The study has established the importance of rotation induced by the volatile evolution on the break up of coal-aggregates and the release of ash particles. Particle rotation during devolatilization and char combustion generates centrifugal forces at the particle surface which can promote the separation of both weakly adhering char fragments and ash particles.; The results show that there is a competition between centrifugal forces which favors the break up of coal-aggregates and adhesive forces between coal particles during the plastic stage of coal pyrolysis. Based upon the theoretical model of agglomeration, the adhesive force on the process of coalescence of coal particles is strongly dependent on the duration of plasticity of the particles. It is also found that rapid heating reduces the tendency of coal particles to form aggregates during the CWF droplet evaporation. Therefore, whether particles burn individually or as aggregates can be influenced by the temperature history of the CWF particle and hence by burner design.

An investigation of the numerical treatment of condensation

2019-04-12T11:48:14Z

An investigation of the numerical treatment of condensation Sasson, Joseph; Schor, Andrei L. The simulation of complete condensation continues to challenge the numerical methods currently used for multi-phase flow modeling; especially at low pressures, the change of phase process from a two-phase mixture to liquid leads to severe pressure field perturbations and often failure of the calculations. During condensation, the local void fraction and pressure decrease rapidly; at the time of complete condensation, the strong nonlinearities of the equations at the phase-change point lead to convergence difficulties and/or unacceptably large mass or energy errors.; Various ad-hoc "fixes" for this phenomenon - often referred to as "water packing" - have been proposed and/or implemented over the last few years. However, they have failed to clarify the core of the problem and are still unsatisfactory. Indeed these solutions cast doubt on the numerical predictions and occasionally are unable to prevent the breakdown of the calculations.; The present investigations have focused on the roots of these difficulties, particularly on the nonlinear effects involved. A time-step control strategy was developed which removes or at least, greatly mitigates the aforementioned computational problems. Numerical experiments as well as a mathematical analysis have both demonstrated the existence of a critical time-step size beyond which larger time-steps shall accommodate the liquid flow field to any perturbations; smaller time-steps shall cause the pressure to bounce, going out of range as it is indeed witnessed for condensation simulations where the time-steps are drastically reduced when the two phases are still coexisting.; Similar studies have been conduced on variety of numerical methods yielding some unexpected results in terms of time-step limit.

Thermohydraulic analysis of U-tube steam generators

2019-04-09T15:38:19Z

Thermohydraulic analysis of U-tube steam generators da Silva, Hugo Cardoso Recent trends in plant safety analysis reveal a need for benchmark analytical representations of the steam generators to aid in the improvement of system codes and of fast codes for operator assistance. A model for such applications should exhibit four characteristics. First, it should be capable of representing the entire unit. Second, it should be based on detailed physical models, supplemented by well-tested empirical correlations and utilize a reliable numerical method, while still allowing for the assessment of potentially simplifying assumptions. Third, it should be validated. Fourth, it should provide a basic framework for expansion to severe transient (accident) analysis.; A model satisfying these characteristics has been developed. The downcomer, evaporator, and riser are treated by the twofluid, three-dimensional code THERMIT. A zero-dimensional calculation closes the natural circulation loop by linking the riser to the downcowaer. Effects included are: condensation, flashing, structure and liquid heat sinks and compressibility in the steam dome. The primary-side representation allows for any number of tubes per secondary-side computational cell. For each tube, four temperatures are calculated: primary fluid, primary wall, intermediate wall, and secondary wall.; The capability for calculating paraoeter distributions in steady-state at full and half power has been verified. Results are in excellent agreement with measurements conducted at the Westinghouse Model Boiler No. 2, as well as with calculations by the ATHOS code. Global paraiaeter computations for both mild and severe operational transients have also been verified. Calculations compare well with plant start-up data gathered at the Arkansas Nuclear One-Unit 2 facility.; The present research has produced the first integrated U-tube steam generator model which both utilizes the porous body two-fluid formulation and has validated capability of application to operating transients.

Continued development of the QUANDRY code

2019-04-12T11:48:14Z

Continued development of the QUANDRY code Henry, Allan F.

Seasonalepisodic control of acid deposition

2019-04-12T11:48:13Z

Seasonalepisodic control of acid deposition Fay, James A.; Golomb, D. This report contains the climatological, technical and economic factors for episodic and seasonal control of emissions in existing power plants. Analyzing a large data set of acid deposition for the years 1982-85, we find that the bulk of acid deposition comes down in a few precipitation episodes per year, mostly concentrated in the summer months. However, the episodes do not occur over wide areas, and are difficult to predict. About 75% of the annual acid deposition occurs during the summer half-year, April through September. Therefore, it would be effective to reduce acid precursor emissions, SO[subscript x] and NO[subscript x], during that period. One method to accomplish the summer precursor emission reduction is substituting natural gas (NG) for oil and coal in large electric utility and industrial boilers.; Gas contains no sulfur and emits less NO[subscript x] than oil or coal. The cost of a summer fuel substitution is primarily dependent on the delivered fuel price differential and only to a small extent on the retrofit cost for dual fuel use. For example, with a delivered fuel price differential of $1.5/MMBtu, the annualized incremenmtal cost of electricity would be about 8 mills/kWh. For the same fuel price differential, the sulfur removal costs range from $400 - $1750 ton SO[subscript 2] depending on sulfur content of the fuel. If credit were given for the greater effect of summer emission reductions, the "effective" removal costs would be considerably less.

Three dimensional effects in analysis of PWR steam line break accident

2019-04-09T19:27:36Z

Three dimensional effects in analysis of PWR steam line break accident Tsai, Chon-Kwo; Golomb, D.; Henry, Allan F. A steam line break accident is one of the possible severe abnormal transients in a pressurized water reactor. It is required to present an analysis of a steam line break accident in the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) of a nuclear power reactor. Only simple one-dimensional core simulations are currently applied to such accident analysis. However, the asymmetric characteristics of a steam break accident may require more detailed local information in order to determine the potential fuel damage resulting from the transient. TITAN, a coupled (neutronics and thermal-hydraulics) code with state-of-the-art neutronics and thermal-hydraulics models, is therefore modified and applied to steam line break accident simulations.; The capabilities that are added to the code for a steam line break analysis include multiregion core inlet temperature forcing function, total inlet coolant flow rate boundary condition, total inlet coolant flow rate transient simulation capability, boron tracking equations, flow/coolant temperature transient plus control rod transient option, and one-dimensional, fully implicit numerical scheme.for thermal-hydraulics calculations. The modifications to TITAN are tested with a ten-channel PWR model. For inlet coolant temperature transients (one of the transients involved in a steam line break accident) test calculations lead to the conclusion that there is no significant difference between the results of closed- and open-channel calculations until boiling occurs.; A ten-channel model with two partially inserted control rods is employed for the transient simulations. Steady state conditions are obtained first by both open- and closed-channel calculations. Results show that cross flow between channels is insignificant. Thus, the onedimensional, fully implicit numerical scheme for the thermal-hydraulics equations is useful to speed up the calculations. More than half of the computational effort is saved by using this scheme compared to the semi-implicit numerical scheme.; Two extreme situations relevant to a steam line break accident are investigated: (1) Significant boiling due to severe depressurization when no return to power exists. (2) Return to power with no boiling because of high coolant temperature feedback coefficients. It is concluded that even after boiling occurs, the global parameters, such as total power and assembly power, still show no significant difference between the closed- and open-channel calcualtions. However, the local parameters, such as nodal power, void fraction and MDNBR, reveal differences between the two calculations. Results show that the open-channel calculation predicts lower MDNBR values as compared with the results of closed-channel calculation in a vapor generation process, since the coolant is driven away from of the hot spots. On the other hand, during a vapor condensation process, closed-channel calculations predict lower MDNBR results, since no cross flow is allowed to accelerated the condensation process.; A closed-channel, uniform inlet coolant temperature transient calculation is performed. The results verify the necessity for a three-dimensional calculation of the accident simulations, since no boiling was predicted by-the one-dimensional calculation throughout the simulation period.

Industrial interfuel substitution : phase I report : model development and case study

2019-04-12T15:01:35Z

Industrial interfuel substitution : phase I report : model development and case study Tabors, Richard D.; Russo, Gilberto; White, David C.

Economic and market analysis of the photovoltaic technology : final report

2019-04-10T16:45:57Z

Economic and market analysis of the photovoltaic technology : final report Tabors, Richard D.

Ultrasonic flowmetering with reflected pulses

2019-04-12T11:48:12Z

Ultrasonic flowmetering with reflected pulses Hoyle, David C.; Glicksman, Leon R.; Peterson, Carl R. A transit time type ultrasonic flowmeter was tested with two different reflected pulse trajectories in flowing air at ambient conditions against an orifice meter. The flowmeter was designed to be highly accurate, to require minimal excavation for installation (both transducers to be placed on the upper surface of the pipe), and to require no service shutdown for installation or calibration. The two trajectories were two successive tilted diameters with a single reflection, and three successive tilted midradius chords with two reflections. High frequency (100 kHz) narrowband pulses were used. Both ultrasonic flowmetering configurations were tested in 12 inch pipe in fully developed turbulent flow, and in the abnormal flow downstream of a 90 degree elbow. The velocity range was 5.5 fps - 25 fps. The triple midradius chord configuration performed extremely well, with maximum errors of 1.3, and 2.0 percent of reading, in the normal and abnormal flows, respectively. The double tilted diameter configuration gave maximum errors of 7.2, and 9.3 percent of reading in the normal and abnormal flows, respectively. Recommendations for field testing of the two ultrasonic configurations are made.; A numerical simulation of ultrasonic flowmetering in an abnormal flow using single, double, and triple midradius chords, and a double tilted diameter was conducted prior to the experimental tests. The simulation showed that the triple midradius chord and double tilted diameter were, respectively, the most accurate and second most accurate of the four trajectories.; An amplitude difference between the acoustic signals received at the upstream and downstream transducers, in flowing air, was measured. This amplitude difference is believed to be caused by flow effects. A two-dimensional model was developed to explain the amplitude difference in terms of focusing of the downstream ultrasonic beam and defocusing of the upstream beam, due to velocity gradients. The focusing and defocusing predicted by the model was found to be too small to explain the amplitude difference, however.

Ambient monitoring of pollutants around synfuel plants : final report

2019-04-12T11:48:12Z

Ambient monitoring of pollutants around synfuel plants : final report Golomb, D.; Batterman, S. A.; Rubin, T. D. This study was undertaken to aid in the evaluation of Environmental Monitoring Plans (EMP) submitted to the U.S. Synfuel Corporation by prospective operators of large-scale synfuel plants who are applying for financial assistance. In accordance with the Energy Security Act of 1980, such applicants must provide an acceptable EMP in order to qualify for the assistance. The EMP is reviewed in consultation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Energy. This study was sponsored by EPA to aid in their consultative role.; The study is limited to evaluating the ambient monitoring plan of the EMP. Ambient monitoring we interpret as pertaining to the surveillance and measurement of pollutants that may emanate from the synfuel complex but are found outside the perimeter of the plant buildings and facilities. The perimeter usually will coincide with the fence or property lines of the complex. The ambient so-interpreted includes the airspace, and surface- and ground-waters, beyond, above and below the perimeter ("outside-the-fence") of the complex.; Ambient air monitoring. The major emphasis of ambient air monitoring should be in the measurement of unregulated air pollutants such as volatile and condensible organic compounds, trace metals, and radionuclides for which emission standards are not yet defined, but are potentially hazardous to health and biota. As the identity, release rate and release height of the individual pollutants are not known a priori, tentative criteria are given for selecting the number and location of the monitors which can be modified as experience is gained on collected pollutant quantities and instrument sensitivities.; It is expected that most pollutants will emanate from low level (height) sources such as retorts, gasifier columns, sulfur recovery systems, liquid and solid waste disposal sites, and coal storage and handling systems. Ground-level pollutant concentrations will decline exponentially with distance because of horizontal and vertical diffusion. Multihour exposure may be necessary to collect a sufficient quantity of a pollutant for analysis. The meteorological factor having the greatest effect on the duration and frequency of sampling, and the location of the monitors, is the prevailing wind direction. Historical wind persistence analysis must be performed at each plant location to determine the wind sectors where the probability is greatest that multihour exposure will occur repeatedly over the monitoring period, say 1 year. It is proposed that monitors be placed in wind sectors where there is at least a 25% chance (100 days/year) that a collector be exposed to 6 or more hours per day (25%) of steady wind. If no single wind sector satisfies this requirement, monitors should be placed in several wind sectors such that at least 100 samples will have an exposure of 6 hours or more. The radial distance of the monitor should subtend an angle of 22.5 (one wind sector) with a cross section of the synfuel complex perpendicular to the monitor.; Ambient water monitoring. The study involved an analysis of the behavior of organic effluents from a generic synthetic fuel plant in several representative environments. A generic approach was used because of the wide range of technologies used in synfuel development, and the variability of the aquatic environments which will receive their discharges. The approach was also necessary because there are no existing large-size synthetic fuel plants from which to obtain data. The analysis consisted of modeling the behavior of the effluents in generic environments. Specific compounds were chosen to represent broad classes of organic effluents. Also described are the schematizations of environmental processes used in the modeling.; Modeling results indicate that there is not a unique monitoring site or frequency for all compounds in all environments. The optimal monitoring site is determined mainly by effluent chemistry, and the optimal frequency by environmental characteristics. The results presented here will be useful once an effluent stream and environment are specified. Environmental monitoring plans may then be compared for the appropriateness of the planned monitoring sites and adequacy of sampling frequency.

A method for estimating common cause failure probability and model parameters : the inverse stress-strength interference (ISSI) technique

2019-04-11T01:25:45Z

A method for estimating common cause failure probability and model parameters : the inverse stress-strength interference (ISSI) technique Guey, Ching Ning In this study, an alternative for the analysis of common cause failures (CCFs) is investigated. The method studied consists of using the Licensee Event Report (LER) data to get single component failure probability and using stress and strength parameters to evaluate multiple component failure probabilities. Since an inversion of stress-strength interference (SSI) theory is involved, the approach is called the inverse stress-strength interference (ISSI) technique.; The ISSI approach is applied to standby systems in commercial nuclear power plants. At a component level, major pumps and valves are studied. Comparisons with other CCF analysis methods indicate that the medians based on the ISSI method are slightly higher because of the inclusion of potential failure causes. Applications to multiple-train systems show that the ISSI method agrees well with the beta factor method. In all cases studied, it appears that uncertainty intervals associated with the ISSI are smaller than other methods.; This study suggests that the ISSI method is a promising. alternative to estimate CCF probabilities. The method will be particularly valuable when: (1) Component-specific and system specific values are needed. (2) Failure data are scarce. (3) Level of redundancy is high. (4) Uncertainty needs to be quantified.

Ground-level ozone in eastern North America : its formation and transport

2019-04-12T11:48:11Z

Ground-level ozone in eastern North America : its formation and transport Zemba, Stephen G.; Fay, James A.; Golomb, D. Ozone (Os), a natural component of the troposphere, is augmented by photochemical processes involving manmade emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Sufficiently high concentrations of ozone are detrimental to the respiratory system. Ozone exposure also reduces crop yields and damages forests. This study attempts to explain the underlying factors which contribute to observed ozone levels.; Long range transport models of three species - NOx, VOCs and ozone - are developed for eastern North America. The seasonally averaged models include the essential physical and chemical processes in a relatively simple framework. NOx and VOCs are treated as primary species, i.e., they are modeled from their introduction into the atmosphere to their point of removal. Detailed emission inventories serve as input to the precursor models. Ozone is considered a secondary species because it is not directly emitted. Rather, its production is assumed to be a function of ambient NO, and VOCs levels.; Measured concentrations, available for NO 2 and ozone, are compared with model predictions and aid in determining adjustable model parameters. Predicted NOx concentrations are consistent with rural observations but underestimate sites influenced by nearby sources at which the long range assumptions break down. Local models which properly treat proximate sources account for the discrepancy. The VOCs model, having no measurements for verification, adopts parameters consistent with the NOx model and known chemical properties. Both biogenic and manmade emissions contribute to ambient VOCs levels. Biogenic emissions are found to be more important over most of ENA; anthropogenic sources of VOCs are dominant only in urban areas.; Consistent with empirical patterns, the ozone model predicts small regional gradients and hence a limited dependence on NOx and VOCs precursors. The natural background component is determined to be two-thirds of average ozone levels. Regional transport is significant; ozone lifetimes are estimated to be of the order of a day. The high background level and insensitivity to precursors suggests that significant reductions of average ozone concentrations will be difficult to achieve.

Treatment of physical and numerical diffusion in fluid dynamic simulations

2019-04-11T01:25:44Z

Treatment of physical and numerical diffusion in fluid dynamic simulations Huh, Kang Yul; Golay, M. A computer code is developed to predict the behavior of the hydrogen gas in the containment aftet a loss-ofcoolant accident. The conservation equations for the four components, i.e., air, hydrogen, steam and water, are set up and solved numerically by decoupling the continuity and momentum equations from the energy, mass diffusion and turbulence equations. The homogeneous mixture form is used for the momentum and energy equations and the steam and liquid droplets are assumed to be in the saturation state.; There are two diffusion processes, molecular and turbulent, which should be modelled in different ways. Molecular diffusion is modelled by Wilke's formula for the multi-component gas diffusion, where the diffusion constants are dependent on the relative concentrations. Turbulent diffusion is basically modelled by the k- model with modifications for low Reynolds number flow effects. Numerical diffusion is eliminated by a corrective scheme which is based on accurate prediction of cross-flow diffusion. The corrective scheme in a fully explicit treatment is both conservative and stable, therefore can be used in long transient calculations. The corrective scheme allows relatively large mesh sizes without introducing the false diffusion and the time step size of the same order of magnitude as the Courant limit may be used.

TITAN code development for application to a PWR steam line break accident : final report 1983-1984

2019-04-10T20:19:38Z

TITAN code development for application to a PWR steam line break accident : final report 1983-1984 Tsai, Chon-Kwo; Kazimi, Mujid S.; Henry, Allan F. Modification of the TITAN computer code which enables it to be applied to a PWR steam line break accident has been accomplished. The code now has the capability of simulating an asymmetric inlet coolant temperature transient by employing different temperature transient forcing functions for different core inlet regions. Up to ten regions of the core can be considered and each region can have at most 50 channels. A total inlet coolant mass flow rate boundary condition option has been added to the code. Flow/coolant temperature transient and control rod transient can be simulated simultaneously by the code as necessary for a steam line break accident simulation. Also, the transient restart capability has been fixed which allows users to change core conditions during a transient calculation for various purposes. All these modifications have been tested by a ten-channel test calculation.; Three steam line break accident simulations (YA-1, YA-2, and YA-3) with different pressure forcing functions have been performed. Each simulation included both closed and open-channel calculations. The steady-state results show that a 1-D thermalhydraulic analysis gives accurate results.; Case YA-1 employed a pressure forcing function taken from a Yankee Atomic report. No boiling during the whole calculation was observed. Also, no significant difference between closed and open-channel calculations was found.; Case YA-2 employed a reduced pressure forcing function with constant pressure after 45 seconds (because of the limitation of W-3 correlation data base). Boiling was observed around 42 seconds after the beginning of the transient. The MCHFR dropped to a value below 6 after boiling. The MCHFR went back to a high value ("30) at 50 seconds for the open-channel calculation while the MCHFR for the closed-channel case still remained below 6. The open-channel model provided a better condition of flow mixing among channels.; Case YW-3 had the same pressure forcing function as that of case YA-2 except the pressure kept decreasing after 45 seconds. The MCHFR was about equal for open-and closed-channels. It is concluded that the closed-channel calculations may produce conservative core power values, but the effect on MCHFR is not always conservative.

European views on controlling acid rain

2019-04-12T11:48:10Z

European views on controlling acid rain Fay, James A.

Optimal foreign borrowing in a multisector dynamic equilibrium model for Brazil

2019-04-11T01:25:42Z

Optimal foreign borrowing in a multisector dynamic equilibrium model for Brazil Tourinho, Octv̀io A. F. This paper shows how a dynamic multisector equilibrium model can be formulated to be able to analyze the optimal borrowing policy of a developing country. It also describes how a non-linear programming model with the proposed features was constructed for Brazil, and discusses the optimal solution of a base case scenario for the economy in the next 20 years. The sensitivity analysis emphasizes the response of the model to different interest rates on foreign borrowing, alternative export expansion and imports requirements scenarios, and different hypothesis with respect to future petroleum prices and domestic petroleum production. The main conclusion is that the optimal long run borrowing policy for Brazil is quite sensitive to the expected future interest rates, and may be different from some myopic strategies which are currently being suggested to handle the developing countries' foreign debt problems. The other important conclusion is that in the less favorable scenarios - protectionist foreign environment or higher petroleum prices - it is not optimal to postpone the required domestic adjustments by increased foreign borrowing. The usefulness of the model is not restricted to this set of simulations, since it can be readily adapted to address related issues such as foreign trade, investment and indirect taxation policies

Source apportionment of wet sulfate deposition in eastern North America

2019-04-11T01:25:41Z

Source apportionment of wet sulfate deposition in eastern North America Fay, James A.; Golomb, D.; Kumar, Subramanyam An analytical model of long distance transport of air pollutants (Fay and Rosenzweig, 1980) has been adapted for the estimation of long term (e.g. annual) wet sulfate deposition in eastern N. America. The model parameters have been optimized for best agreement with 1980- 1982 measurements at 109 monitoring sites in this region. The mean residual of the model and measurement comparison is 4 kg ha[superscript -l]y[superscript -1] (17% of the mean measured value). Transfer coefficients were found to decrease exponentially with source-receptor distance, having length scales between 1100 and 400 km depending upon whether the source is upwind or downwind of the receptor. Source apportionment calculated for four sites from this model shows that about half of the deposition is due to 7-8 of the largest source contributors to each site (aggregated to the state and sub-province level). A 17-year record of precipitation sulfate measured at Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire, compares favorably with the model calculation. Calculated U.S.-Canada transboundary fluxes agree with previous estimates. Isopleths of 1980-82 yearly depositions were determined, and the deposition effects of a typical U.S. emissions reduction proposal were evaluated.

Analytical modelling of hydrogen transport in reactor containments

2019-04-12T11:48:09Z

Analytical modelling of hydrogen transport in reactor containments Manno, V.; Golay, M. There are two diffusion processes, molecular and turbulent, which should be modelled in different ways. Molecular diffusion is modelled by Wilke's formula for the multi-component gas diffusion, where the diffusion constants are dependent on the relative concentrations. Turbulent diffusion is basically modelled by the k- model with modifications for low Reynolds number flow effects. Numerical diffusion is eliminated by a corrective scheme which is based on accurate prediction of cross-flow diffusion. The corrective scheme in a fully explicit treatment is both conservative and stable, therefore can be used in long transient calculations. The corrective scheme allows relatively large mesh sizes without introducing the false diffusion and the time step size of the same order of magnitude as the Courant limit may be used.; Several validation calculations are reported. Demonstration problems include the successful reproduction of analytical or known solutions, simulation of large scale experiments and analyses of "thought experiments" which test the physical reasonableness of the predictions. In particular, simulation of hydrogen transport tests performed at the Battelle Frankfurt Institute and Hanford Engineering Development Laboratory show good agreement with measured hydrogen concentration, temperature and flow fields. The results also indicate that potential areas of improvement are enhanced computational efficiency, further reduction of numerical diffusion and development of containment spray models. Overall, a useful tool applicable to many nuclear safety problems is described.

An international comparison of the impact of safety regulation on LWR performance

2019-04-12T11:48:08Z

An international comparison of the impact of safety regulation on LWR performance Anderson, Steven Craig During the decade 1975-1984, the US nuclear power industry achieved a lower level of reactor performance than that realized in many other Western nations. Previous work suggested that international differences in safety regulation account for much of the discrepancy. US annual regulatory losses averaged over 10% during the ten-year study period. The present investigation compares nuclear safety regulation in France, Sweden, and Switzerland with that in the United States 1) to determine whether greater regulatory stringency was indeed responsible for poorer US plant performance, and 2) to examine key international differences in the the division and coordination of responsibility between safety regulators and nuclear utilities for recognizing and solving technical problems.; Analysis of the US data revealed that, on average, over 90% of US regulatory outages were attributed to one of the following: technical specification limiting conditions of operation or NRCrequired inspections or NRC-required modifications. It was found that the European nations experienced the same variety of technical problems seen in the United States. Furthermore, the scope and stringency of European and US safety regulation are comparable. It was found that inconsistencies in outage reporting practices account for much of the discrepancy in regulatory loss between the United States and the other nations. Therefore, it is concluded that safety regulation is not the primary cause of differences in reactor performance observed between the United States and other nations.

Advanced methods development for LWR trsansient analysis, final report : 1981-1982

2019-04-12T11:48:08Z

Advanced methods development for LWR trsansient analysis, final report : 1981-1982 Griggs, D. P.; Henry, Allan F.; Kazimi, Mujid S. The initial development of TITAN, a three-dimensional coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics code for LWR safety analysis, has been completed. The transient neutronics code QUANDRY has been joined to the two-fluid thermal-hydraulics code THERMIT with the appropriate feedback mechanisms modeled. A detailed steady-state and transient coupling scheme based on the tandem technique was implemented in accordance with the important structural and operational characteristics of QUANDRY and THERMIT. A two channel sample problem formed the basis for steady-state and transient analyses performed with TITAN. TITAN steady-state results were compared with those obtained with MEKIN and showed good agreement. A fuel pin model sensitivity study was performed for steady-state problems. Null transients, simulated turbine trip transients, and a rod withdrawal transient were analyzed with TITAN and reasonable results were obtained.

An evaluation of joint repair methods for cast iron natural gas distribution mains and the preliminary development of an alternative joint seal

2019-04-11T01:25:40Z

An evaluation of joint repair methods for cast iron natural gas distribution mains and the preliminary development of an alternative joint seal Rogers, Thomas Edward; Glicksman, Leon R.; Peterson, Carl R. Approximately 10 percent of the natural gas pumped into distribution systems is unaccounted for. A significant portion of this amount is leakage from joints in 50 to 100 year old cast iron main. Because of the cumulative effects of many small leaks, these leaks must be repaired even though the repair expense is not always justified by the value of the gas conserved.; Part One identifies and evaluates leak sealing techniques of the past and present by compiling available test data. A major task was to review all documented test results in journals and technical reports. This study followed-up on published articles by contacting all the individuals and organizations concerned. Recommendations for future development of an alternate sealing system are made.; Part Two discusses preliminary criteria for the design of an alternative system to seal main joints from within the main without service interruption. Experiments were performed showing that very soft elastomers pressed against the rough pipe wall could prohibit leakage. Potential cleaning methods were tested. Wire and abrasive wheels, and water-jets were recommended for further development. Based on time-dependent characteristics and resistance to aging and to chemicals found in mains, fluorocarbon was recommended for use as the seal material. Preliminary design of the seal verified its feasibility. Several innovative concepts for the seal are presented. Considerations for the cleaning and sealing device and for the overal'. system are discussed.

Disparities in nuclear power plant performance in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany

2019-04-11T01:25:38Z

Disparities in nuclear power plant performance in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany Hansen, Kent F.; Winje, D. K. This report presents data comparing the performance of light water reactors in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG). The comparisons are made for the years 1980-1983 and include 21 Westinghouse Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs), 22 General Electric Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) in the US; and 6 Kraftwerk Union (KWU) PWRs and 4 KWU BWRs in the FRG.; Data on capacity losses are presented in a disaggregated form for scheduled outages, forced outages, and regulatory imposed outages. Further, within the scheduled and forced outages, the data is subdivided into losses associated with the nuclear island, the balance of plant, or other causes.; The report also surveys a number of observations relating to the causes of discrepancies between the US and West Germany. These observations were obtained from interviews with executives and engineers in both nations, including people from vendors, utilities, regulators, and architect/engineers. These discussions are distilled into observations relating to national differences in the broad areas of economics and economic regulation, safety regulations, and technical and managerial differences.

A frequency domain finite element model for tidal circulation

2019-04-11T01:25:36Z

A frequency domain finite element model for tidal circulation Westerink, Joannes J.; Stolzenbach, Keith D.; Connor, J. J. A highly efficient finite element model has been developed for the numerical prediction of depth average circulation within small scale embayments which are often characterized by irregular boundaries and bottom topography.; Traditional finite element models use time-stepping and have been plagued with requirements for high eddy viscosity coefficients and small time steps necessary to insure numerical stability, making application to small bays infeasible. These problems are overcome by operating in the frequency domain, an intrinsically more natural solution procedure for a highly periodic process such as tidal forcing. In order to handle non-linearities, an iterative scheme which updates non-linearities as right hand side force loadings must be implemented.; Pioneering efforts with the harmonic approach have had shortcomings in either not modeling all physically relevant terms and/or in not gearing towards application to small scale regions. Small embayments are often quite shallow and have rapidly varying depth, making the nonlinear terms in the governing hydrodynamic equations much more significant. This requires that more frequencies be used in order to resolve the tide and account for the greater nonlinear coupling due to bottom friction, convective acceleration and finite amplitude effects. In order to make the process of handling this wide range of frequencies manageable, a hybrid frequency-time domain approach is applied. The iterative scheme revolves around a highly efficient linear core code which can handle a wide range of frequencies. Furthermore, instead of Fourier expanding the nonlinear terms, an efficient least squares error minimization algorithm is used for the discrete spectral analysis of the iteratively updated psuedo-force time history generated by the nonlinearities.; With this highly efficient scheme it is now possible to efficiently study both short period and long term residual circulation within small scale embayments.

Modeling the release of CO2 in the deep ocean

2019-04-12T11:48:06Z

Modeling the release of CO2 in the deep ocean Liro, Christopher R.; Adams, E. Eric; Herzog, Howard J. The idea of capturing and disposing of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the flue gas of fossil fuel-fired power plants has recently received attention as a possible mitigation strategy to counteract potential global warming due to the "greenhouse effect." One specific scheme is to concentrate the CO2 in the flue gas to over 90 mol %, compress and dehydrate the CO2 to supercritical conditions, and then transport it through a pipeline for deep ocean disposal. In Golomb et al. (1989), this scheme was studied, with emphasis on the CO 2 capture aspects. In this follow-on study, we concentrate on the mechanisms of releasing the CO 2 in the deep ocean.; Golomb et al. only considered the release of individual liquid CO 2 droplets in the region below 500 m. In this study, we consider all depths in both the liquid and vapor regions, and we model the entire plume in addition to individual droplets or bubbles. The key design variables in the model that can be controlled are: (1) release depth, (2) number of diffuser ports, N, and (3) initial bubble or droplet radius, ro. The results show that we can lower the height of the plume by increasing the number of diffuser ports and/or decreasing the initial bubble or droplet radius. Figure S-1 summarizes the results for a release depth of 500 m. With reasonable values for N and r. of 10 and 1 cm respectively, we can keep the plume height under 100 m. Since our goal is to dissolve all the CO2 before it reaches the well-mixed surface layer at approximately 100 m, we can release our C02 at depths as shallow as 200 m. However, the residence time of the sequestered CO2 in the ocean is also a function of depth. For releases of CO2 less than 500 m deep, we can estimate a residence time of less than 50 years, and for a release from about 1000 m, a residence time from 200 to 300 years. These residence times may be increased by releasing in areas of downwelling or by forming solid CO 2-hydrates which will sink to the ocean floor. For depths greater than 500 m, CO2-hydrates may form but we have ignored them due to lack of data.; We estimate that the local CO2 concentration will increase about 0.2 kg/m 3 . Added to the background concentration of 0.1 kg/m 3 , the resulting total concentration will be about 0.3 kg/m 3 , much less than saturation levels of about 40 kg/m 3 . Similarly, SO2 and NOx concentration increases will be about 1 .10 - 3 kg/m3 and 2 10- 4 kg/m 3 , respectively. Given an ambient current of 10 cm/s, horizontal dispersion will dilute these concentration increases by a factor of two at a distance of about 4 km downstream.; In implementing a CO2 capture and sequester scheme based on an air separation/ flue gas recycle power plant, the price of electricity would double. The reasons for this doubling are: (1) 44% due to derating of the power plant because of the parasitic power required to capture C02, mainly for air separation and CO compression, (2) 42% due to capital charges and operation and maintenance costs (excluding fuel) of the power plant modifications, including air separation and CO2 compression, and (3) 14% due to capital charges and operation and maintenance costs of a 160 km pipeline for deep ocean disposal. These numbers assume that no additional control measures are required to mitigate potential environmental problems are associated with deep ocean disposal of CO02.

Trade-off analysis for electric power planning in New England : a methodology for dealing with uncertain futures

2019-04-11T01:25:34Z

Trade-off analysis for electric power planning in New England : a methodology for dealing with uncertain futures Connors, Stephen R.; Tabors, Richard D.; White, David C. The use of a multi-attribute trade-off analysis technique as a vehicle to provide information to a diverse group of electric industry interests can play a beneficial role for developing long-range strategies for the electric power sector. The advisory group/analysis team structure presented here allows different groups to evaluate multiple issues simultaneously, incorporating the range of supply and demand options, and future uncertainties characteristic of complex systems.; The initial phase of such an Integrated Resource Planning project for New England electric power industry has identified that: significant gains in the areas of reliability and environmental emissions can be made by the introduction of new generating technologies; the recent emphasis on natural gas fired technologies should be matched by an effort to ensure adequate supplies of gas, and other effort to guard against fuel related vulnerabilities.

The role of methane in tropospheric chemistry

2019-04-11T01:25:34Z

The role of methane in tropospheric chemistry Golomb, D.; Fay, James A. While methane is chemically quite inert to reactions with atmospheric molecular species, it does react with atomic species and molecular radicals. Because of its relatively large abundance in the global troposphere and because of the apparent annual increase of its concentration, it is worthwhile exploring the role of methane in tropospheric chemistry, especialy the role in air pollution.; From a detailed analysis of the reactions of methane with atmospheric species we conclude that while methane does play a role in generating the general background of ozone that permeates the global troposphere, it plays only a minor role in urban and rural ozone formation. In urban areas, most of which fail to meet the ozone standards established by the Clean Air Act, the prime facilitators of ozone formation are various higher hydrocarbon emissions. In rural and forested areas, biogenic emissions of terpenes, pinenes and isoprenes take a dominant role in creating ozone via their peroxy radical. Thus, the omission of methane in urban and rural ozone modeling is justified. The models should use a general ozone background level which in most areas of the U.S. amounts to 10-30 ppb. This background ozone may be due in part to global methane concentrations. Further, for ozone control purposes in exceedance areas, little would be gained by monitoring methane at the emission sources or in the ambient.; Annually between 400-800 million tons (MTy-1) of CH4 are emitted, of which 100-200 MTy come from enteric fermentation, 280-500 MTy-l from wetlands and rice paddies, 16-50 MTy-1 from fossil fuel leakage and combustion and the rest from other minor sources. These emissions produce in the northern hemisphere an annual average concentration of methane in air of about 1600-1700 parts per billion by volume, abbreviated henceforth ppb. The concentration appears to increase by about 1% y-l. For comparison, the tropospheric abundance of other hydrocarbons ranges from 0.1-10 ppb. In urban, polluted areas both methane and non-methane-hydrocarbon (NMHC) concentrations could be larger. Unfortunately, few measurements are available that include the whole spectrum of hydrocarbons.; The most important tropospheric reaction of methane is with the hydroxyl radical OH. This reaction initiates a chain that leads to the formation of the methyl peroxy radical CH302, and to a lesser extent to formaldehyde HCHO and methyl nitrate CH3 ONO 2 . The CH302 radical may be an important oxidant that converts atmospheric nitric oxide NO into nitrogen dioxide NO2 . Nitrogen dioxide is the major precursor of ozone 03. However, peroxy radical formation is much more rapid from higher alkanes, unsaturated hydrocarbons and aromatic hydrocarbons. The NMHC's react 25-830 times faster with hydroxyl than methane. The extent to which CH4 contributes to 03 concentrations is very much dependent on the ratio of ambient concentrations of NMHC/CH4. In our estimation, methane is a contributor to the general tropospheric ozone concentration or "background" ozone, which amounts to 10-30 ppb in the US. In rural and forested areas, where biogenic emissions of terpenes, pinenes and isoprenes are large, these hydrocarbons form rapidly peroxy radicals contributing to excess ozone formation over that of the general background. In urban areas, there are large emissions of higher hydrocarbons due to evaporation of fuels, solvents and paints, industrial (e.g. refinery) emissions, and incomplete combustion of fuels. In urban areas, we expect that these emissions are the prime facilitators of ozone formation, as well as the precursors of other "smog" ingredients, e.g. aldehydes, ketones, acids, organic nitrates and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN).

Application of a 2-D particle tracking model to simulate entrainment of winter flounder larvae at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station

2019-04-11T01:25:33Z

Application of a 2-D particle tracking model to simulate entrainment of winter flounder larvae at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station Dimou, Nadia K.; Adams, E. Eric A 2-D random walk model, developed by Dimou (1989) as part of this research project, was used to simulate entrainment at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station of winter flounder larvae hatched within Niantic River.; Important features of the model include larval behavior (vertical migration as a function of time of day and tidal stage) and tidal dispersion within Niantic River which was calibrated to Ketchum's (1951) Modified Tidal Prism Model. Simulations using larval hatching rates inferred from the densities of yolk-sac larvae collected within the river showed the larvae arriving significantly earlier and in smaller numbers than indicated by observations at the intake. A dye study conducted within the river and available salinity data showed that the hydrodynamic flushing time is actually less than it was simulated to be, so this does not explain the discrepancy in arrival times. However, dates of peak abundance for larvae collected at different locations within the river and Niantic Bay imply that actual larval retention times may be significantly greater than the hydrodynamic residence time, suggesting that adjustments may need to be made in the representation of larval behavior. A second dye study, conducted in the bay, showed that 15-25% of water exiting the river mouth passes through the intake--in excellent agreement with simulations.; Additional factors that could help explain the small entrainment numbers and early arrival times simulated by the model are briefly discussed and include the possibilities that larval hatching rates are too low, possibly due to the method of sampling yolk-sac larvae; simulated mortality rates are too high; and larvae are being imported to the region from different spawning areas.

TEA - a linear frequency domain finite element model for tidal embayment analysis

2019-04-11T01:25:31Z

TEA - a linear frequency domain finite element model for tidal embayment analysis Westerink, Joannes J. A frequency domain (harmonic) finite element model is developed for the numerical prediction of depth average circulation within small embayments. Such embayments are often characterized by irregular boundaries and bottom topography and large gradients in velocity. Previously developed finite element based time domain models require high eddy viscosity coefficients and small time steps to insure numerical stability, making application to small bays infeasible. Application of the harmonic method in conjunction with finite elements overcomes theseproblems. The model TEA, for Tidal Embayment Analysis, solves the linearized problem and is the core of a fully nonlinear code presently under development.; This report discusses in detail both the theory behind TEA and program usage. Furthermore the versatility of TEA is demonstrated in several prototype examples.

A multi attribute trade off and analysis framework for electric utility integrated resource planning

2019-04-09T16:21:03Z

A multi attribute trade off and analysis framework for electric utility integrated resource planning Bespolka, Carl G. The application of this framework to a 1988 Energy Laboratory study served to illustrate the flow of the analysis and the interrelationships among the various components of the framework. The trade off analysis stage - focusing on the trade off vectors and the pairwise dominance comparisons - is at the heart of the framework. These tools allow the participant to explore the set of trade offs that are available given the specified group of options and strategies, rather than trying to select a strategy that somehow maximizes a difficult to determine preference structure.

The effects of technological change, experience and environmental regulation on the construction of coal-burning generating units

2019-04-11T01:25:30Z

The effects of technological change, experience and environmental regulation on the construction of coal-burning generating units Joskow, Paul L.; Rose, Nancy L. This paper provides an empirical analysis of the technological, regulatory and organizational factors that have influenced the costs of building coal-burning steam-electric generating units over the past twenty year. We obtain empirical estimates of economies of scale in construction costs, learning effects associated with utilities and architect-engineers, the costs of environmental regulation, patterns of construction productivity, and cost differences between generating technologies. The analysis is based on a sample of over 400 generating units placed in operation between 1960 and 1980. Information on generating unit availability is integrated with the. construction cost evidence to suggest that the abandonment of supercriticar technology in the early 1980's is likely to be a consequence of pooroperating performance as well-as sharply reduced demand expectations rathev than a consequence of high construction costs for this technology at large scale.

International comparison of LWR performance

2019-04-11T01:25:29Z

International comparison of LWR performance Beckjord, Eric S.

TITAN : an advanced three dimensional coupled neutronicthermal-hydraulics code for light water nuclear reactor core analysis

2019-04-11T01:25:27Z

TITAN : an advanced three dimensional coupled neutronicthermal-hydraulics code for light water nuclear reactor core analysis Griggs, D. P.; Kazimi, Mujid S.; Henry, Allan F. The accurate analysis of nuclear reactor transients frequently requires that neutronics, thermal-hydraulics and feedback be included. A number of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics codes have been developed for this purpose. Of these, only a few combine three-dimensional neutronics and thermal-hydraulics, and these are either not generally available or too expensive for many applications of interest. Therefore, TITAN, a coupled code combining state-of-the-art three-dimensional neutronics and thermal-hydraulics models, was developed and tested.; The three-dimensional nodal neutronics code QUANDRY and the threedimensional two-fluid thermal-hydraulics code THERMIT are combined into TITAN. Steady-state and transient coupling methodologies based upon a tandem structure were devised and implemented. Additional models for nuclear feedback, equilibrium xenon and direct moderator heating were added. TITAN was tested using a boiling water two channel problem and the coupling methodologies were shown to be effective. Simulated turbine trip transients and several control rod withdrawal transients were analyzed with good results. Sensitivity studies indicated that the time-step size can affect transient results significantly.; TITAN was also applied to a quarter core PWR problem based on a real reactor geometry. The steady-state results were compared to a solution produced by MEKIN-B and poor agreement between the horizontal power shapes was found. Calculations with various mesh spacings showed that the mesh spacings in the MEKIN-B analysis were too large to produce accurate results with a finite difference method. The TITAN results were shown to be reasonable. A pair of control rod ejection accidents were also analyzed with TITAN.; The computing time requirements for these analyses were less than 1 hour c.p.u. time on a large mainframe computer. This is reasonable for a severe transient in a large reactor.; A comparison of the TITAN PWR control rod ejection results with results from coupled point kinetics/thermal-hydraulics analyses showed that the point kinetics method used (adiabatic method for contol rod reactivities, steady-state flux shape for core-averaged reactivity feedback) underpredicted the power excursion in one case and overpredicted it in the other. It was therefore concluded that point kinetics methods should be used with caution and that three-dimensional codes like TITAN are superior for analyzing PWR control rod ejection transients.

Forced cooling of underground electric power transmission lines : design manual

2019-04-12T11:48:05Z

Forced cooling of underground electric power transmission lines : design manual Brown, Jay A.; Koc,̕ Paul Frantisek; Glicksman, Leon R. The methodology utilized for the design of a forced-cooled pipe-type underground transmission system is presented. The material is divided into three major parts: (1) The Forced-cooled Pipe-Type Underground Transmission System Design Manual-Part I, (2) The Design Manual-Part II, and (3) the Forced-Cooled Pipe-Type Underground Transmission System Computer Program Design Manual.; The Design Manual Part I provides the thermal and hydraulic design analyses required for the design of a forced-cooled cable system of specified geometry. The thermal design establishes the relationship between the cable amperage, oil flow, and the conductorto- oil temperature difference and provides a coolant loop energy balance which includes an analysis of the pipe-to-soil heat transfer. Combination of both permits the maximization of the cable amperage while maintaining the cable temperature below the maximum allowable value.; The hydraulic design establishes the pressure-flow characteristics for pipe-type cable systems and a systematic analysis is provided which allows for calculation of the pressure drop in the cable line and rturn line of the flow circuit as well as the circuit absolute pressure profile. The pressure drop governs the selection of circulation pumps, pipe strength characteristics, and strongly influences coolant loop length.; The Design Manual-Part II presents a description of the experimental and analytical research performed at M.I.T.'s Heat Transfer Laboratory which provides the relationships used in the design analysis of Design Manual-Part I.; The Computer program design manual provides a detailed description of the forced-cooled system computer program and the necessary program documentation. The computer program is basically a straightforward computerization of the design procedure of Design Manual- Part I. Six different computer design options are provided which permit complete flexibility for the design and optimization of the forced-cooled system. Four of the design options allow for the selection of alternative independent and dependent design variables and two design options provide for the system optimization based on specified optimization criteria.

Utility spot pricing, California

2019-04-11T01:25:26Z

Utility spot pricing, California Schweppe, Fred C. The objective of the present spot pricing study carried out for SCE and PG&E is to develop the concepts which wculd lead to an experimental design for spot pricing in the two utilities. The report suggests a set of experiments and outlines implementation plans that can build upon existing and experimental load management programs and rates. The report also contains a description of spot pricing as well as a survey of the relevant literature. It categorizes the current and experimental rates in use in the two utilities, and relates them to spot pricing. The report further categorizes and evaluates hardware available for spot pricing experiments and implementation based upon the functional requirements of the customer/utility interface.

Cogeneration and utility planning

2019-04-11T01:25:24Z

Cogeneration and utility planning Pickel, Frederick H.

The development of a curb valve flow meter for gas theft detection

2019-04-11T01:25:23Z

The development of a curb valve flow meter for gas theft detection Fitzgerald, Kevin Francis; Glicksman, Leon R.; Peterson, Carl R. As the supply of natural gas continues to dwindle, and government decontrol of pricing progresses, the rising cost of this essential natural resource will drive more individuals to consider various forms of pilferage as a way of reducing their financial burden. Today, according to numerous gas utilities, significant revenues are being lost via theft of service, losses which are ultimately passed on to the businesses' honest customers.; A method to detect such thievery developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for Consolidated Edison of New York, was the design of a secondary flow metering device. Located outside a suspected concern, and placed within the small confines of a modified valve or pipe structure, its function is to act as a cross reference for the existing positive displacement meter. The concept chosen was the phenomena of vortex shedding, a fluid oscillatory instability which is used extensively as a measuruing technique in the process control industry. Feasibility studies were carried out using a flat, non-moving bluff shedding element and a piezo-electric bimorph ceramic cantilevered behind it. Both elements were situated within a curb valve based prototype design having a test section inner diameter of one inch. As predicted, experiments demonstrate a repeatable, linear relationship between frequency of oscillation and volume flow for flow rates between 200 and 1000 CFH. A requirement of less than one inch of water column pressure drop across the test section was also achieved. The output signal of the bimorph varied from millivolts to several volts throughout the same specified flow range. In addition, the oscillations may be simply counted to yield and integration of the total volume delivered.; The success of the concept suggests that a Phase II program, in which the laboratory design is incorporated into a device suitable for rigorous field tests by the utility, should be pursued.

A four-equation two-phase flow model for sodium boiling simulation of LMFBR fuel assemblies

2019-04-12T11:48:04Z

A four-equation two-phase flow model for sodium boiling simulation of LMFBR fuel assemblies Schor, Andrei L.; Todreas, Neil E. A three-dimensional numerical model for the simulation of sodium boiling transients has been developed. The model uses mixture mass and energy equations, while employing a separate momentum equation for each phase. Thermal equilibrium on the saturation line between coexisting phases is assumed.; The four governing equations are supplemented by a number of constitutive relations, addressing the interphase and intraphase exchanges, as well as the fluid-solid interactions. It should be noted that this four-equation two-phase flow model requires only one interfacial relation, i.e., the momentum exchange, compared to the six-equation model which needs two additional relations, describing the mass and energy exchanges. Consequently, the relatively high degree of uncertainty currently associated with the interfacial exchange phenomena is considerably reduced.; From a numerical point of view, the basic approach in this work is a semi-implicit method, in which pressure pulse propagation and local effects characterized by short characteristic times are treated implicitly, while convective transport and diffusion heat transfer phenomena, associated with longer time constants, are handled explicitly. The method remains tractable and efficient in multidimensional applications.; Simulation of a number of experiments has yielded very encouraging results. The numerical method and the constitutive relations have performed well, especially so in light of the extreme severity of the conditions involving sodium boiling.

Evaluation of models for predicting evaporative water loss in cooling impoundments

2019-04-11T01:25:21Z

Evaluation of models for predicting evaporative water loss in cooling impoundments Helfrich, Karl Richard Cooling impoundments can offer a number of advantages over cooling towers for condenser water cooling at steam electric power plants. However, a major disadvantage of cooling ponds is a lack of confidence in the ability to predict various aspects of their hydrothermal performance and consumptive water use. This report focuses on evaporation, which is related to both pond performance (temperatures) and consumptive water use.; A discussion of evaporation equations from both a theoretical and an empirical basis is presented. Several empirical evaporation equations falling into three basic categories - Dalton Law, Modified Dalton Law and Stability Dependent - have been compared to determine accuracy and confidence limits for evaporation from heated water bodies. Comparisons have been carried out using MIT's dynamic cooling pond model MITEMP to evaluate the energy budget for six weeks of comprehensive meteorological and water temperature data taken at Dresden Cooling Pond in Illinois. Results show a large decrease in the variability among the different formulations (measured by mean error and variance of predicted and measured plant intake temperatures) when a dynamic model is used compared with the large variability among the equations for constant meteorological conditions and water surface temperature. Feedback between evaporation and temperature in the dynamic model is suggested as a reason for this decrease. Linear calibrations have been fitted to each equation using these data. The consistency of calibration was then checked using similar data from Powerton Cooling Pond in Illinois. Due to the high non-linearity of some of the equations, the effects of meteorological data averaging period are examined by long term simulations.; Linearized surface heat loss formulations are discussed with emphasis on their use in long term forced evaporation water consumption estimates. An extension of the Harbeck Diagram concept (Harbeck, 1964; Ward, 1980) is presented to better account for non-linearities due to high temperature differences between heated and natural conditions. Surprisingly good agreement has been found between annual water consumption computed from diagram estimates and from dynamic hydrothermal model simulations involving full non-linear heat loss expressions.

Initiation of water hammer in horizontal or nearly-horizontal pipes containing steam and subcooled water

2019-04-12T11:48:03Z

Initiation of water hammer in horizontal or nearly-horizontal pipes containing steam and subcooled water Bjorge, Robert William

Graded index antireflective coatings for glass : final report, September 1978 - February 1982

2019-04-12T11:48:02Z

Graded index antireflective coatings for glass : final report, September 1978 - February 1982 Haggerty, John Scarseth Glass compositions and process conditions by which broad band gradedindex antreflective films can be produced on glass surfaces have been developed. The end use for the treated glass sheet is as cover plates for flat plate solar-thermal collectors; thus, cost issues dictated that the process conditions fall within constraints imposed by the float glass process.; To accomplish this objective, both the film formation process and the characteristics of the graded-index films were investigated in detail. A model, borosilicate glass was used for initial work that served to verify experimental procedures, to confirm essential features of the film forming process and to determine whether the porous surface film and the phase separated structure of the host glass had an adverse effect on mechanical properties. Glasses and film surfaces were characterized chemically (atomic absorption, Auger and SIMS), microstructurally (SEM, TEM and replica microscopy), by weight loss, by specific surface area (BET), by small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and optically.; Based on the results with the borosilicate glass, a candidate soda-limesilica glass composition was defined that satisfied the phase separation and float glass process criteria. Heat treatments were defined for the glass that produced appropriate microstructures and selective etchants were defined that produced porous films by selective dissolution.

Simulation of sodium boiling experiments with THERMIT sodium version

2019-04-12T11:48:01Z

Simulation of sodium boiling experiments with THERMIT sodium version Huh, Kang Yul Natural and forced convection experiments(SBTF and French) are simulated with the sodium version of the thermal-hydraulic computer code THERMIT. Simulation is done for the test secti- -on with the pressure-velocity boundary condition and subsequ- -ently extended to the whole loop. For the test section simu- -lation, a s.teady-state and transient calculations are perform- -ed and compared with experimental data. For the loop simula- -tion, two methods are used, a simulated 1-D loop and an actual 1-D loop. In the simulated 1-D loop analysis, the vapor densi- -ty is increased by one hundred and two hundred times to avoid the code failure and the results still showed some of the impor- -tant characteristics of the two-phase flow oscillation in a loop. A mathematical model is suggested for the two-phase flow oscillation. In the actual 1-D loop, only the single phase calculation was performed and turned out to be nearly the same as the simulated 1-D loop single phase results.; In the process of simulation, it is discovered that the energy conservation equations of THERMIT fails to conserve energy by a small amount due to interfacial mass transfer and frictional dissipation of mechanical into thermal energy. The problems and applicability of the THERMIT physical models are also discussed.

Eulerian-Lagrangian analysis of pollutant transport in shallow water

2019-04-11T01:25:20Z

Eulerian-Lagrangian analysis of pollutant transport in shallow water Baptista, Antonio E. de M.; Adams, E. Eric; Stolzenbach, Keith D. A numerical method for the solution of the two-dimensional, unsteady, transport equation is formulated, and its accuracy is tested.; The method uses a Eulerian-Lagrangian approach, in which the transport equation is divided into a diffusion equation (solved by a finite element method) and a convection equation (solved by the method of characteristics). This approach leads to results that are free of spurious oscillations and excessive numerical damping, even in the case where advection strongly dominates diffusion. For pure diffusion problems, optimal accuracy is approached as the time-step, At, goes to zero; conversely, for pure-convection problems, accuracy improves with increasing At; for convection-diffusion problems the At leading to optimal accuracy depends on the characteristics of the spatial discretization and on the relative importance of convection and diffusion.; The method is cost-effective in modeling pollutant transport in coastal waters, as demonstrated by two prototype applications: hypothetical sludge dumping in Massachusetts Bay and the thermal discharge from Brayton Point Generating Station in Narragansett Bay. Numerical diffusion is eliminated or greatly reduced, raising the need for realistic estimation of dispersion coefficients. Costs (based on CPU time) should not exceed those of conventional Eulerian methods and, in some cases (e.g., problems involving predictions over several tidal cycles), considerable savings may even be achieved.

Energy price changes and the induced revaluation of durable capital in U.S. manufacturing during the OPEC decade

2019-04-12T11:48:00Z

Energy price changes and the induced revaluation of durable capital in U.S. manufacturing during the OPEC decade Berndt, Ernst R.; Wood, David O. When energy prices increased suddenly and unexpectedly in 1973-74 and 1979-80, a portion of the long-lived capital stock in U.S. manufacturing was rendered economically less valuable. In this paper we develop an analytical framework, consistent with the theory of cost and production, that provides an appealing structural interpretation of this capital revaluation phenomenon.; In the spirit of a putty-clay model, we demonstrate that the capital -revaluation elasticity is the negative of the ex ante substitution elasticity between energy and capital equipment. The model is implemented empirically with annual data from U.S. manufacturing, 1958-81, and vintage investment data since 1929. Maximum likelihood estimation is undertaken with nonstatic expectations of future relative price values treated as an unobservable ariables problem.; Our principal empirical findings are (i) that the elasticity of capital valuation with respect to relative energy price increases -- the capital revaluation elasticity -- is between -0.234 and -0.543 in U.S. manufacturing, and (ii) that by 1981 the appropriately revalued capital stock is at least 13% less than traditional measures indicate. We also consider implications of capital revaluation for the measurement of capital-labor ratios, age-shadow price profiles, and vintage-specific Tobin's q's.

Physical and numerical modeling of the external fluid mechanics of OTEC pilot plants

2019-04-11T01:25:19Z

Physical and numerical modeling of the external fluid mechanics of OTEC pilot plants Singarella, Paul N.; Adams, E. Eric This study examined the near field external fluid mechanics of symmetrical OTEC pilot plant designs (20-80 MWe) under realistic deep water conditions. The objective was to assess the environmental impact of different plant configurations and to determine if pilot plants can be expected to operate without degrading the thermal resource available for power production. Physical modeling studies were conducted to investigate the variation of near field plume dynamics and the sensitivity of recirculation to different pilot plant designs. Experiments were conducted in a thermally stratified 12m x 18m x 0.6m basin, at an undistorted length scale ratio of 1:300, which allowed the upper 170m of the ocean to be studied. Measurements included temperature, dye concentration and visual observation from photographs. Both mixed and non-mixed discharge concepts were investigated. Discharge port design included two, four or eight discrete circular ports, with significant variations in the MWe/port ratio, issuing either horizontally or vertically. A range of ambient uniform current speeds was investigated while an ambient density profile, representative of potential sites off of Hawaii and Puerto Rico, was chosen.; A previously calibrated integral jet model (Hirst, 1971a) was tested against experimental observation to develop a valid, predictive tool that would facilitate study of conditions that were not modeled with the present experimental set-up. The model was modified to more accurately represent the dynamics of the OTEC discharge in the near field. Major modifications included adjustment of the equations that characterized the starting length (length of ZOFE); introduction of jet deflection in the ZOFE; introduction of a lateral spreading formulation that allowed the "squeezing" effects of the ambient stratification to be simulated; and introduction of an aspect factor, which accounted for interaction of a number of closely spaced vertical jets issuing from a circular array. Overall agreement between prediction and observation was quite good. The potential environmental impact of the discharge plume from an OTEC plant over a broad range of realistic conditions was assessed through additional sensitivity simulations.; Results indicate that little recirculation occurs for the designs considered in this study. The recirculation that does occur appears to be the result of plume upwash in the lee of the plant and, possibly, internal wake effects on the plant bow. Environmental impact is argued to be proportional to the degree of perturbation caused by the OTEC discharge to the upper mixed layer. For the conditions considered in the sensitivity study the OTEC plume remained below the upper mixed layer except for the largest layer depths considered (H~ 100m). These larger depths are near the maximum values reported for either Hawaii or Puerto Rico and represent the only conditions where significant perturbations may be likely.

Annual report, April 1981 - May 1982 : laser induced deposition of thin films

2019-04-11T01:25:18Z

Annual report, April 1981 - May 1982 : laser induced deposition of thin films Gattuso, Todd Richard; Meunier, M.; Haggerty, John Scarseth A new chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process has been demonstrated with Si thin films. In this process, reactant gases are heated by absorbing light energy emitted from an IR laser. No other surfaces are heated by the reaction, thus contamination is eliminated, the state (stress, crystallinity, grain size, etc.) of the film can be controlled and unwanted heterogeneous reaction sites are eliminated.; Research conducted to date has employed silane (SiH 4) as a reactant and an untuned CO2 laser. Process conditions appropriate for film deposition have been defined. Deposition kinetics, film characteristics and mixed gas optical absorptivities have been measured. Deposition rates are comparable to other low pressure CVD processes (~ 1-10 A/sec) but with much colder substrate temperatures being permitted. The characteristics of initial amorphous Si films indicate that they equal or exceed the quality of films deposited by highly developed plasma or reactive sputtering techniques.

The use of burnable poison to improve uranium utilization in PWRs

2019-04-11T01:25:17Z

The use of burnable poison to improve uranium utilization in PWRs Loh, Wee Tee; Driscoll, Michael J.; Lanning, David D. A methodology based on the linear reactivity model of core behavior has been developed and employed to evaluate fuel management tactics for improving uranium utilization in Pressurized Water Reactors in a once-through fuel cycle mode on a consistent basis. A major focus has been on the benefit of using burnable poison in conjunction with low-leakage fuel management schemes. Key features in the methodology, such as power weighting of batch reactivity values and correlation of neutron leakage effects with peripheral assembly power, were verified against results generated using detailed state-ofthe- art computer analyses. A relation between batch power fraction and batch reactivity was derived from a 1/2-group diffusion theory model, and similarly validated. These prescriptions have been used in two ways: to develop analytical models which allow quick scoping calculations; and, programmed into a code, to facilitate more rigorous applications.; The methodology has been applied to evaluate fuel management schemes of contemporary interest, such as the use of burnable poison to shape the power history profile, the use of low-leakage fuel loading patterns, and extended cycle length/ burnup, and combinations of these individual schemes.; It was found that shaping of the power,history profile in a low-leakage assembly pattern by means of burnable poison, even after accounting for the anticipated residual poison reactivity penalty, has the potential of increasing PWR discharge burnup, and hence uranium utilization by roughly 1%. The overall improvement in uranium utilization for a low-leakage loading over that for the current out-in/scatter scheme, was about 3.6% for current cycle lengths (3-batch, discharge burnup ' 30,000 MWD/MT), and approximately 11.1% for extended cycle operation (3-batch, discharge burnup u 50,000 MWD/MT).

Spot pricing and its relation to other load management methods

2019-04-09T15:42:29Z

Spot pricing and its relation to other load management methods Caramanis, Michael C.; Schweppe, Fred C.; Tabors, Richard D.

Controlling acid rain

2019-04-11T01:25:16Z

Controlling acid rain Fay, James A.; Golomb, D.; Gruhl, Jim High concentrations of sulfuric and nitric acid in raTn fn the northeastern USA are caused by the large scale combustion of fossil fuels within this region. Average precipitation acidity is pH 4.2, but spatial and temporal fluctuations of *1 pH unit have been observed. Amelioration of rain acidity requires significant reduction of precursor emissions--the oxides of sulfur and nitrogen. Such reduction of emissions from existing sources will be difficult and expensive. A pending legislativp proposal to reduce eastern U.S. emissions of SO2 by 10 Mty-' below the 1980 level of 22.5 Mty - 1 would reduce the acid sulfate deposition rate in the Adirondack mountains, an environmentally sensitive area, from 30 to 21.4 kg ha-ly-l. Based upon source/receptor modeling, an equal reduction of Adirondack sulfate deposition rate could be achieved by a 7 Mty- SO2 emission reduction if the reduction is allocated according to source proximity to the sensitive area. The cost of reducing 10 Mty - 1 SO2 emissions is estimated at $5 to $8 billion per year. Considerably lower costs could be realized in an emission control scheme that is the more stringent the nearer the sources are to the environmentally sensitive areas, and if novel approaches are implemented, such as seasonal or episodic emission reduction, NOx vs. SO2 emission control, emission redistribution, and least emission electricity dispatch. Substantial emission reductions will probably be achieved in the more distant future by employing new combustion technology, such as lime injected multistage combustion, fluidized bed combustion, coal gasifier combined cycle, magnetohydrodynamics, and- possibly others.

Residential energy demand modeling and the NIECS data base : an evaluation

2019-04-12T11:48:00Z

Residential energy demand modeling and the NIECS data base : an evaluation Cowing, Thomas G.; Dubin, Jeffrey A.; McFadden, Daniel The purpose of this report is to evaluate the 1978-79 National Interim Energy Consumption Survey (NIECS) data base in terms of its usefulness for estimating residential energy demand models based on household appliance choice and utilization decisions. The NIECS contains detailed energy usage information at the household level for 4081 households during the April 1978 to March 1979 period. Among the data included are information on the structural and thermal characteristics of the housing unit, demographic characteristics of the household, fuel usage, appliance characteristics and actual energy consumption over the 12-month period. In comparison to several earlier surveys of household energy consumption, the NIECS contains approximately twice as many sample households, covers all four of the primary residential fuels - electricity, natural gas, fuel oi and LPG - and is the only national survey to include detailed information on recent household conservation and retrofit activities.; Although NIECS is a highly detailed source of household energy usage information, there are several major problems with the data base which severely limit its usefulness as a source of research data. These problem areas, discussed in detail in Section 3 , include: i) response error, primarily arising from the apparent inability of many households to accurately answer technically-related questions concerning their housing unit; ii) the innoculation procedures used to process the "monthly" or billing period data on fuel consumption and expenditures, including the fact that only the innoculated data is reported; iii) the type of weather information given, especially HDD and CDD data, based on adjusted NOAA weather division aggregates rather than actual weather conditions at each location; iv) the imputation procedures used for a large number of household variables and responses, by which the real data was replaced with "unflagged" imputed estimates; and v) the lack of more specific household location information at the state level, so that the necessary additional price data required to estimate econometric models of residential energy demand can be matched to the NIECS observations.; While each of these problems may seem rather minor in terms of its consequences, this is not the case. Taken together, the effect is quite likely to be substantial in terms of limiting the usefulness of the NIECS data base. Given the significant potential of this data set for accurately modeling household appliance choice and utilization decisions, and thereby better understanding a key aspect of residential energy demand, this constitutes a real tragedy.

Shale oil recovery systems incorporating ore beneficiation : final report, October 1982

2019-04-11T01:25:14Z

Shale oil recovery systems incorporating ore beneficiation : final report, October 1982 Weiss, M. A. This study analyzed the recovery of oil from oil shale by use of proposed systems which incorporate beneficiation of the shale ore (that is, concentration of the kerogen) before the oil-recovery step. The objective was to identify systems which could be more attractive than conventional surface retorting of ore. No experimental work was carried out. The systems analyzed consisted of beneficiation methods which could increase kerogen concentrations by at least four-fold. Potentially attractive low-enrichment methods such as density separation were not examined. The technical alternatives considered were bounded by the secondary crusher as input and raw shale oil as output.; A sequence of ball milling, froth flotation, and retorting concentrate is not attractive for Western shales compared to conventional ore retorting; transporting the concentrate to another location for retorting reduces air emissions in the ore region but cost reduction is questionable. The high capital and energy costs result largely from the ball milling step which is very inefficient. Major improvements in comminution seem achievable through research and such improvements, plus confirmation of other assumptions, could make high-enrichment beneficiation competitive with conventional processing.

Utility spot pricing study : Wisconsin

2019-04-12T11:47:59Z

Utility spot pricing study : Wisconsin Caramanis, Michael C.; Tabors, Richard D.; Stevenson, Rodney E. Spot pricing covers a range of electric utility pricing structures which relate the marginal costs of electric generation to the prices seen by utility customers. At the shortest time frames prices change every five minutes--the same time frame as used in utility dispatch--longer time frames might include 24-hour updating in which prices are set one day in advance but vary hourly as a function of projected system operating costs. The critical concept is that customers see and respond to marginal rather than average costs. In addition the concept of spot pricing includes a "quality of supply" component by which prices are increased at times in which the system is approaching maximum capacity, thus providing a pricing mechanism to replace or augment rationing.; This research project evaluated the potential for spot pricing of industrial customers from the perspective both of the utility and its customers. A prototype Wisconsin (based on the WFPCO system) and its industrial customers was evaluated assuming 1980 demand level and tariff structures. The utility system was simplified to include limited interconnection and exchange of power with. surrounding utilities. The analysis was carried out using an hourly simulation model, ENPRO, to evaluate the marginal operating cost for any hour. The industrial energy demand was adjusted to reflect the price (relative to the present time-of-use pricing system). The simulation was then rerun to calculate the change in revenues (and customer bill) and the amount of consumer surplus generated.; A second analysis assumed a 5 percent increase in demand with no increase in capacity. Each analysis was carried out for an assumed low and high industrial response to price changes.; In an effort to generalize beyond the Wisconsin data and to evaluate the likely implications of a flexible pricing scheme relative to a utility system with a greater level of oil generation, particularly on the margin, the system capacity of the study utility was altered by substitution of a limited number of coal plants by identical but with higher-fuel cost oil-fired plants. The analyses for the modified utility structure are parallel to those for the standard utility structure discussed above.; The results of the analysis showed that the flexible pricing system produced both utility and customer savings. At lower capacity utilization the utility recovered less revenue than it did under the present time-of-use rates. While at higher utilization it recovered more. Under all scenarios tested, consumer surplus benefits were five to ten times greater than were simple fuel savings for the utility. While these results must be evaluated in additional testing of specific customer response patterns, it is significant to note that the ability of the customer to choose his pattern more flexibly holds a significant potential for customers to achieve greater surplus--even if their bill may in fact increase. These results are discussed in detail in the report as are a number of customer bill impact considerations and the issues associated with revenue reconciliation.

Loop simulation capability for sodium-cooled systems

2019-04-10T07:16:00Z

Loop simulation capability for sodium-cooled systems Adekugbe, Oluwole A.; Schor, Andrei L.; Kazimi, Mujid S. A one-dimensional loop simulation capability has been implemented in the thermal-hydraulic analysis code, THERMIT-4E. This code had been used to simulate and investigate flow in test sections of experimental sodium loops and of LMFBR fuel assemblies. Such analyses had required the use of boundary conditions specified at the inlet and outlet. The new code, THERMIT-4E/L simulates the entire primary coolant loop and therefore eliminates the need to specify such boundary conditions. The additions and modifications to the THERMIT-4E code include: constant temperature heat sinks, implicit heat transfer to environment and generalized body force field specification. To date, applications have been focused on natural circulation.; A series of experiments performed in the Sodium Boiling Test Facility (SBTF) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been simulated with the loop code. The results of single-phase calculations are generally in good agreement with the experimental data. However, we have not as yet been able to obtain a stabilized flow configuration when a significant amount of boiling takes place in the heated section. It appears that the extremely violent condensation n the plena loads to the .noted calculational difficulty.; An analytical treatment approximating the single-phase loop behavior has also been developed. The results are quite general and can be applied to other loop systems. Approximate expressions have been obtained for the frequency and damping coefficient of a flow oscillation in a loop. The analysis has also yielded a criterion for stability, dependent on the input power, difference between the upper and lower plena temperatures, and a modified Stanton number.

Progress report to the National Science Foundation for the period July 1, 1980 to December 31, 1981 of the project on cartel behavior and exhaustible resource supply : a case study of the world oil market

2019-04-12T11:47:58Z

Progress report to the National Science Foundation for the period July 1, 1980 to December 31, 1981 of the project on cartel behavior and exhaustible resource supply : a case study of the world oil market The M.I.T. World Oil Project has been developing forecasting methods that integrate the following considerations which influence investment in oil capacity and the level of oil exports: (1) the geology and microeconomics of exploration and production; and (2) macroeconomic and financial effects of oil investment and export sales. The effort is a continuation of previous NSF-sponsored research on the world oil market. Simplified methods of disaggregated analysis of oil exploration and production are being developed, and a country-level model of oil finance has been formulated and tested. This research has proceeded sufficiently well that it appears possible to merge the two into a unified analysis. This research will contribute to our unde-standin of oil supply from critical regions of the world; it also should lead to better supply analysis for inclusion in the oil system models maintained by U.S. government agencies, university research and non-profit groups, and private industries.

Long range transport of acid rain precursors

2019-04-10T20:41:40Z

Long range transport of acid rain precursors Fay, James A. A model of the long range transport of primary and secondary pollutants derived by Fay and Rosenzweig (1) is applied to the problem of the transport of acid rain precursors. The model describes the long term average (annual or seasonal) airborn pollutant concentration due to a single source. Because the chemical transformation and physical deposition processes are assumed to be linear in the concentrations, the contributions of many sources may be determined by superposition. Simplified forms of the source-receptor relation are derived for ranges of the model parameters which are appropriate to sulfur oxide species. Quantitative results of applying the model to airborn sulfate3 in the eastern U.S. are compared with more complex models.

An ultrasonic flowmeter for gases by Donald A. Bender, Leon R. Glicksman, Carl R. Peterson.

2019-04-11T01:25:13Z

An ultrasonic flowmeter for gases by Donald A. Bender, Leon R. Glicksman, Carl R. Peterson. Bender, D. A.; Glicksman, Leon R.; Peterson, Carl R. An ultrasonic flowmeter is developed for use in natural gas mains. The characteristics of the application and the dynamic head device presently employed are described. The performance requirements, design, and prototype testing of the ultrasonic instrument are discussed. The viability of a unique metering technique using reflected acoustic pulses was experimentally demonstrated. The flowmeter developed herein requires access to one side of the gas line and is self calibrating. It was concluded that continued development will produce a unit suitable for use in commercial service.

Controlling acid rain : policy issues

2019-04-11T01:25:12Z

Controlling acid rain : policy issues Fay, James A.; Golomb, D. The policy and regulatory ramifications of U.S. acid rain control programs are examined; particularly, the alternative of a receptor-oriented strategy as constrasted to emission-oriented proposals (e.g., the Mitchell bill) which set sulfur emission reductions to uniform national levels. In receptor strategies, goals for deposition reductions in ecologically threatened areas are determined and the emission reductions are apportioned primarily to sources that cause the bulk of acid deposition in those areas. It is very likely that a receptor-oriented strategy would be less costly (on a national basis) than a uniform emission reduction strategy, and certainly more beneficial to the endangered areas. For a receptor-oriented strategy, a detailed economic analysis needs to be performed to select the least-cost emission control method for the individual sources. Such methods may include scrubbers, combustion modification, total or seasonal fuel substitution, and electricity import (i.e., emission export). An emission control scheme tailored for northern New York and New England would also benefit sensitive areas in southeastern Canada, and thereby help to defuse the present U.S./Canadian impass over acid rain control agreements.

An investigation of the physical and numerical foundations of two-fluid representation of sodium boiling with applications to LMFBR experiments

2019-04-11T01:25:11Z

An investigation of the physical and numerical foundations of two-fluid representation of sodium boiling with applications to LMFBR experiments No, Hee Cheon; Kazimi, Mujid S. This work involves the development of physical models for the constitutive relations of a two-fuid, three-dimensional sodium boiling code, THERMIT-6S. The code is equipped with a fluid conduction model, a fuel pin model, and a subassembly wall model suitable for simulating LMFBR transient events.; Mathematically rigorous derivations of time-volume averaged conservation equations are used to establish the differential equations of THERMIT-6S. These equations are then discretized in a manner identical to the original THERMIT code. A virtual mass term is incorporated in THERMIT-6S to solve the ill-posed problem.; Based on a simplified flow regime, namely cocurrent annular flow, constitutive relations for two-phase flow of sodium are derived. The wall heat transfer coefficient is based on momentum-heat transfer analogy and a logarithmic law for liquid film velocity distribution. A broad literature review is given for two-phase friction factors. It is concluded that entrainment can account for some of the discrepancies in the literature. Mass and energy exchanges are modelled by generalization of the turbulent flux concept. Interfacial drag coefficients are derived for annular flows with entrainment.; Code assessment is performed by simulating three experiments for low flow-high power accidents and one experiment for low flow/low power accidents in the LMFBR. While the numerical results for pre-dryout are in good agreement with the data, those for post-dryout reveal the need for improvement of the physical models. The benefits of two-dimensional non-equilibrium representation of sodium boiling are studied.

An internal seal for repairing natural gas mains

2019-04-10T19:08:49Z

An internal seal for repairing natural gas mains Cooper, Samuel A.; Glicksman, Leon R.; Peterson, Carl R. Joint leakage from low pressure natural gas distribution mains (typical value: 0.25 ft[superscript 3] at 6 inwg gas pressure) is a persistent source of maintenance problems for utitlites. External encapsulation is the usual choice for repairing leaking joints. It is reliable and expensive, about $1000 per joint (80% of which is for excavation and resurfacing).; Consolidated Edison of New York is sponsoring a project to develop a cheap and reliable joint seal. No current sealing methods were found to be acceptable in Phase I. Adhesion failures between the seal and pipe were a major cause of seal failure. Preliminary Phase II research recommended the development of an internal mechanical seal. Such a seal would minimize excavation and eliminate adhesion failures.; To complete Phase II, an internal mechanical seal was developed. The initial research indicated that cleaning of the pipe interior had to be minimized or eliminated. Testing demonstrated that a sealant, either asphalt or vulcanizing silicone, greatly enhanced the sealing of uncleaned pipes, while permitting low stress levels. This led to the development of a new internal mechanical seal concept for sealing uncleaned gas main joints. Joint tests of 2 injected silicone seal concepts were run. The Type 1 seal, which filled the joint recess, completely sealed an uncleaned pipe joint. The Type 2 seal, which spanned the joint recess with an elastomeric bridge, had a leak rate of 0.000038 ft[superscript 3]/hr at 6 inwg gas pressure from an uncleaned joint. The leakage was caused by permiability of the silicone bridge. These flexible and compliant seals, clamped in place with retaining bands, provide mechanical support for the sealant throughout the seal life, and thus do not rely on adhesion.

COBRA IIIcMIT-2 : a digital computer program for steady state and transient thermal-hydraulic analysis of rod bundle nuclear fuel elements

2019-04-09T16:35:01Z

COBRA IIIcMIT-2 : a digital computer program for steady state and transient thermal-hydraulic analysis of rod bundle nuclear fuel elements Jackson, J. W.; Todreas, Neil E.

Homeostatic control : economic integration of solar technologies into electric power operations and planning

2019-04-12T11:47:58Z

Homeostatic control : economic integration of solar technologies into electric power operations and planning Tabors, Richard D. The economic and technical interfaces between the electrical utility and the distributed, nondispatchable electric generation systems are only minimally understood at the present time. This paper will discuss the economic issues associated with the interface of new energy technologies and the electric utility grid. The paper then introduces the concept of Homeostatic Control as developed by the author and others at MIT and discusses the use of such an economic concept applied to the introduction of nondispatchable technologies into the existing utility system. The paper concludes with a discussion of the transition and potential impact of a Homoeostatic Control system working with the existing electric utility system.

Systems studies on the extraction of uranium from seawater

2019-04-11T01:25:06Z

Systems studies on the extraction of uranium from seawater Driscoll, Michael J.; Best, F. R. This report summarizes the work done at MIT during FY 1981 on the overall system design of a uranium-from-seawater facility. It consists of a sequence of seven major chapters, each of which was originally prepared as a stand-alone internal progress report. These chapters trace the historical progression of the MIT effort, from an early concern with scoping calculations to define the practical boundaries of a design envelope, as constrained by elementary economic and energy balance considerations, through a parallel evaluation of actively-pumped and passive current-driven concepts, and thence to quantification of the features of a second generation system based on a shipboard-mounted, actively-pumped concept designed around the use of thin beds of powdered ion exchange resin supported by cloth fiber cylinders (similar to the baghouse flyash filters used on power station offgas).; An assessment of the apparently inherent limitations of even thin settled-bed sorber media then led to selection of an expanded bed (in the form of an ion exchange "wool"), which would permit an order of magnitude increase in flow loading, as a desirable advance. Thus the final two chapters evaluate ways in which this approach could be implemented, and the resulting performance levels which could be attained. Overall, U 308 production costs under 200 $/lb appear to be within reach if a high capacity (several thousand ppm U) ion exchange wool can be developed.

Analysis of forces on core structures during a loss-of-coolant accident

2019-04-10T20:37:10Z

Analysis of forces on core structures during a loss-of-coolant accident Griggs, D. P.

User's manual for MOCUS-BACKFIRE [i.e. MOCUS-BACFIRE] : a computer program for common cause failure analysis

2019-04-12T11:39:07Z

User's manual for MOCUS-BACKFIRE [i.e. MOCUS-BACFIRE] : a computer program for common cause failure analysis Heising, Carolyn D. This report is the user's manual for MOCUS-BACFIRE, a computer programme for qualitative common cause analysis. The MOCUSBACFIRE package code was developed by coupling the MOCUS code and BACFIRE code. The MOCUS code is a computer programme to generate cut sets of a fault tree. BACFIRE is a computer programme to search among the basic events of a minimal cut set for potential common casuse failures. Both codes are written in FORTRAN IV for the IBM 360/370 computer series. The input data to MOCUS-BACFIRE are the fault tree and common cause susceptibilities. The input and output of the programme are described in detail in this handbook.

Utility spot pricing, California

2019-04-10T12:59:33Z

User's guide to the Venezuelan macrofinancial model

2019-04-12T11:39:02Z

User's guide to the Venezuelan macrofinancial model Aliana, Simon; McDonald, Donogh This paper presents a user's guide and documentation for a macrofinancial model of Venezuela. This model was developed under a DOE International Affairs Division grant (contract no. EX-76-A-01-2295) for the project, "A Financial Model of Oil Supply for an Oil-Producing Country." Also, this work was partially supported by the M.I.T. Center for Energy Policy Research. The theoretical development and results of the model are found in Dailami (1979).1 The reader is referred to that paper for an in-depth discussion of the model. This present working paper concerns only the technical aspects of the simulation model and the data developed to support the model. The model is described in Section 2 which includes all of the equations of the model, possible uses of the simulation structure, and detailed instructions on how to actually run the model on TROLL.2 Section 3 concerns the time series data developed for this study. Both the derivation of the data and a guide to their datafile storage on TROLL are included.

Recommendations concerning energy information model documentation, public access, and evaluation

2019-04-10T12:59:32Z

Recommendations concerning energy information model documentation, public access, and evaluation Wood, David O.; Mason, Martha J. In this study we provide an analysis of the factors underlying Congressional concern regarding model documentation, policies for public access, and evaluation procedures of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and its predecessor agencies; we also develop and present recommendations designed to improve current practice. This study reviews the history of Congressional concern; surveys current EIA organization and policies; provides an analysis of the model evaluation process; and presents recommendations to improve organizational efficiency and responsiveness, the model documentation process, public access policies, and model evaluation.

Final report to the National Science Foundation for the period July 1, 1978 to June 30, 1980 of project on cartel behavior and exhaustible resource supply : a case study of the world oil market.

2019-04-10T12:59:31Z

Final report to the National Science Foundation for the period July 1, 1978 to June 30, 1980 of project on cartel behavior and exhaustible resource supply : a case study of the world oil market. The M.I.T. World Oil Project has been developing improved methods and data for analysis of the future course of the world oil market. Any forecast of this market depends on analysis of the likely demand for oil imports by major consuming countries, and the likely supply from exporters who behave as "price-takers" in their oil exploration and production. The resulting net demand for oil from the core members of the oil cartel determines the ability of OPEC to set prices. In the M.I.T. research, study of net demand for cartel oil is accompanied by analysis of the behavior of the price-setters themselves, and exploration of the details of market structure as they influence price behavior and trade patterns.; The work involves a set of studies of oil supply from key producer areas, import demand from consuming nations, integration of supply and demand studies into the overall market analysis, and behavioral studies of the cartel. In the period covered by this report, the focus has been on the further documentation and application of research results from previous years of National Science Foundation support, and the extension of the work in the areas of disaggregated analysis of oil supply, financial influences on supply decisions, and analysis of cartel behavior.; The research contributes to our understanding of the workings of the world oil market and of the likely effects of various national policies. Results include forecasts of likely future price paths, evaluation of various consumer and producer country policies, and study of likely trade patterns in oil and their implications for national security and international finance.

Stainless steel clad for light water reactor fuels

2019-04-10T12:59:31Z

Stainless steel clad for light water reactor fuels Rivera, John E.; Meyer, John E.

A four-equation two-phase flow model for sodium boiling simulation of LMFBR fuel assemblies

2019-04-10T12:59:29Z

Estimation of resources and reserves

2019-04-10T20:57:13Z

Estimation of resources and reserves This report analyzes the economics of resource and reserve estimation. Current concern about energy problems has focused attention on how we measure available energy resources. One reads that we have an eight-year oil supply and a 500-year coal supply, implying that we must inevitably turn to coal. Uranium is either seen as scarce, implying the necessity of the breeder reactor, or it is seen as plentiful, implying no need for plutonium in reactors. Motivating these statements, which profoundly affect the tenor of our future, is an interpretation of how resources and reserves are estimated. And, as we shall see, the interpretation is more often than not incorrect; stocks of resources are confused with flows; flows are what economists call supply.; The five parts of this report take an in-depth look at resource and reserve estimation for oil, gas, coal, and uranium. Our goal is not to provide a "good" estimate of what lies beneath the surface of the earth, but to deal with the crucial concepts lying behind resource and reserve estimation. What do geologists measure and how well does this interact with the economists' notion of supply? The fault in estimation is rarely geological, but rather economic. The concept of abundance is an economic one and we ask what geological information means when interpreted in light of economic reasoning.

Methodology and results of the impacts of modeling electric utilities ; a comparative evaluation of MEMM and REM

2019-04-12T11:39:07Z

Methodology and results of the impacts of modeling electric utilities ; a comparative evaluation of MEMM and REM Baughman, Martin L. This study compares two models of the U.S. electric utility industry including the EIA's electric utility submodel in the Midterm Energy Market Model (MEMM), and the Baughman-Joskow Regionalized Electricity Model (REM). The method of comparison emphasizes reconciliation of differences in data common to both models, and the performance of simulation experiments to evaluate the empirical significance of certain structural differences in the models.

A methodology for assessing alternative water acquisition and use strategies for energy facilities in the American West

2019-04-11T01:25:05Z

A methodology for assessing alternative water acquisition and use strategies for energy facilities in the American West Shaw, John J. This report develops a method for assessing alternative strategies for acquiring and using water at western energy plants. The method has been tested in a case study of cooling water use for a hypothetical steam electric power plant on the Crazy Woman Creek, an unregulated stream in Wyoming.; The results from the case study suggest a careful analysis of reservoir design and water right purchase strategies can reduce the cost of acquiring and using water at an energy facility. The key to this advance arises because water is not a homogeneous good: different sources will deliver water with different costs and different reliabilities. This occurs because water supplies are sensitive to seasonal changes. The methodology recognizes this seasonal component in supply and searches for optimal (or 'non-inferior') tradeoffs between conserving water in the plant cooling system, building larger reservoirs, and purchasing existing water rights.; The method uses simulation models to assess the capital and operating costs and expected monthly water consumption rates for different cooling system designs. The method also uses reservoir operating algorithms to select, for a fixed cooling system design, the optimal tradeoff between building a make-up water reservoir and purchasing water rights. These tradeoffs can be used to derive the firm's true demand curve for different sources of water. The analysis also reveals the implicit cost of selecting strategies which minimize conflicts with other water users.; Three noteworthy findings are revealed for the single case study, though it appears these findings will hold for other small, unregulated rivers where some fraction of the flow remains unappropriated by existing users: 1. Cooling ponds are as good as or preferred to wet towers because their costs already include provisions for storing water for use during the normally dry summer months and during occasional drought years. 2. The energy firm's demand for overall water consumption in the cooling system is inversely proportional to both the cost of installing make-up water reservoirs, and the size of the energy facility. 3. The firm's willingness to pay for existing rights is proportional to both the cost of installing reservoirs, and the size of the energy facility.; Taken together, these last two findings suggest an energy firm's demand for water in general and its demand for existing water rights in particular can move in opposite directions. Contrary to recommendations seen elsewhere in the literature (Bishop and Naryanan, 1978), it does not necessarily follow that water should be transferred away from alternative uses to energy simply because energy firms can pay premium prices for the total water their plants consume.

PV1 model verification and validation

2019-04-10T16:37:30Z

PV1 model verification and validation Fuller, Frank H.; Lilien, Gary L.; Wulfe, Martin The purpose of this document is 1) to describe, in detail, the theoretic foundation on which PV1 is based, 2) indicate the manner in which its theoretical foundation has been translated into a practical, useful tool for the analysis of photovoltaic commercialization policy, 3) document both the sources of data and the variables used in the model, and 4) provide the basis for comments from potential users.

Development of models for the two-dimensional, two-fluid code for sodium boiling NATOF-2D

2019-04-11T01:25:04Z

Development of models for the two-dimensional, two-fluid code for sodium boiling NATOF-2D Zielinski, R. G.; Kazimi, Mujid S. Several features were incorporated into NATOF-2D, a twodimensional, two fluid code developed at M.I.T. for the purpose of analysis of sodium boiling transients under LMFBR conditions. They include improved interfacial mass, momentum and energy exchange rate models, and a cell-to-cell radial heat conduction mechanism which was calibrated by simulation of Westinghouse Blanket Heat Transfer Test Program Runs 544 and 545. Finally, a direct method of pressure field solution was implemented into NATOF-2D, replacing the iterative technique previously available, and resulted in substantially reduced computational costs.; The models incorporated into NATOF-2D were tested by running the code to simulate the results of the THORS Bundle 6A Experiments performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and four tests from the W-1 SLSF Experiment performed by the Hanford Engineering Development Laboratory. The results demonstrate the increased accuracy provided by the inclusion of these effects.

The selective use of thorium and heterogeneity in uranium-efficient pressurized water reactors

2019-04-12T11:39:05Z

The selective use of thorium and heterogeneity in uranium-efficient pressurized water reactors Kamal, Altamash; Driscoll, Michael J.; Lanning, David D. Systematic procedures have been developed and applied to assess the uranium utilization potential of a broad range of options involving the selective use of thorium in Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) operating on the once-through cycle. The methods used rely on state-of-the-art physics methods coupled with batch-wise core depletion models based on the "group-and-one-half" theory.; The possible roles for thorium that were investigated are: as internal and radial blanket material, as thorium pins dispersed within uranium fuel assemblies, its use in PWRs operating on spectral shift control, and its reconstitution and reinsertion as radial blanket assemblies. The use of smaller assemblies in PWRs (for cores with and without thorium) was also investigated, as well as options which can be regarded as reasonable substitutes for employing thorium. The analyses were performed for both current (3-batch, discharge burnup n 30 GWD/MT) and high-burnup (5-batch, discharge burnup% 50 GWD/MT) PWR cores in their steady-state.; It was found that except for special circumstances (dry lattices and/or high burnup), the use of thorium does not save uranium compared to the conventional all-uranium PWRs. When savings are achieved (typically 1-3%, but as high as 9% in special circumstances), they can be, for the most part, equalled or exceeded by easier means: in particular, by the re-use of spent fuel. On the other hand, up to 15 or 20% thorium could be added into PWRs without significant losses in uranium utilization, if policies called for the build up of a U-233 inventory for later use in the recycle mode.; It was also found that, regardless of the deployment of thorium, the use of smaller fuel assemblies with the concurrent deployment of radial blankets is an effective uranium conservation strategy, with accompanying power-shaping advantages.

Steam bubble collapse, water hammer and piping network response

2019-04-10T12:52:12Z

Steam bubble collapse, water hammer and piping network response Gruel, R.; Hurwitz, W. Work on steam bubble collapse, water hammer and piping network response was carried out in two closely related but distinct sections. Volume I of ,,is report details the experiments and analyses carried out in conjunction with the steam bubble collapse and water hammer project. Volume II details the work which was performed in the analysis of piping network response to steam generated water hammer.

Residential photovoltaic worth : a summary assessment

2019-04-11T03:40:36Z

Residential photovoltaic worth : a summary assessment Dinwoodie, Thomas L. Two critical perspectives have been addressed by the analyses of residential photovoltaic worth. For the researcher and designer have been established allowable costs. For the homeowner and institutional decision-makers have been identified investment figures of merit. The first allowable cost figure was established in 197J and set at $0.50/Wp (1976$) for the PV module component alone. This is very nearly the median of allowable costs projected from todays more refined analyses. These show allowable installed system costs ranging from $1.50/Wp to $4.00/Wp (1980 $), depending upon certain critical variables. The more critical variables are few, and are locally defined: level of solar insolation, local utility rates, and locally available tax credit/subsidies (in addition to the federal). Other parameters that are critical, but more predictable (and hence embedded in the analysis) are the PV array efficiency, utility buyback rate, utility rate escalation, and homeowner discount rate.; One concern that appears to impact heavily on residential PV economics, and that has not been treated widely in the literature, is whether homeowners will be taxed at their ordinary income tax rate for electricity sold to the utility. If so, will it be for all PV electricity produced (requiring 2 meters, as in simultaneous purchase and sale), all PV energy in excess of instantaneous load, or on the basis of net energy sold over some pre-established tine period (utility billing period, tax period, etc.). Assumptions here are critical in the final analysis.; With regards to special applications, the simplest are the most surviving. With higher anticipated utility buyback rates, batteries do nothing to enhance the value of PV. Photovoltaics attached to thermal collectors are sub-optimal compared to side by side systems. New construction applications for a simple utility interconnect system offer cost savings over typical retrofit installations.; In matching industry expected costs with the latest assessment of investor allowable costs, one suspects that the residential market will begin to accelerate around 1990. It will happen first in those areas of high solar insolation, high utility electric rates and significant investment incentives (tax credits or others). An analysis of current trends shows that these breakeven years for residential PV should be welcomed by a ready institutional climate.

The economics of photovoltaics in the commercial, institutional and industrical sectors

2019-04-12T11:39:05Z

The economics of photovoltaics in the commercial, institutional and industrical sectors Cox, Alan J. This paper describes the application of a model which computes system break-even capital costs, array break-even capital costs and profits from photovoltaic investments in the industrial, commercial and institutional sectors. Several tax and accounting combinations are described and utilized in this paper. Results indicate that, at rates of return usually found in the industrial and commercial sectors, photovoltaic investments will not be attractive when the costs of those investments are based on the Department of Energy's cost goals for 1986.

Flywheel storage for photovoltaics: an economic evaluation of two applications

2019-04-12T11:39:04Z

Flywheel storage for photovoltaics: an economic evaluation of two applications Dinwoodie, Thomas L. A worth analysis is made for an advanced flywheel storage concept for tandem operation with photovoltaics currently being developed at MIT/Lincoln Laboratories. The applications examined here are a single family residence and a multi-family load center, 8 kWp and 100 kWp, respectively. The objectives were to determine optimal flywheel sizing for the various operating environments and to determine the financial parameters that would affect market penetration. The operating modes included both utility interface and remote, stand-alone logics. All studies were performed by computer simulation.; The analysis concludes that flywheel systems are more attractive in residential applications, primarily because of differences in financing parameters and, in particular, the discount rate.; In all applications flywheel storage is seen to increase the optimum size of a photovoltaic system. For stand-alone environments, optimum configuration sizing is fairly insensitive to hardware cost of photovoltaics and flywheels for a given reliability when no diesel generator is included.; Overall, the worth analysis finds a high sensitivity in the areas of discount rate, PV capital cost, flywheel capital cost, and diesel fuel costs.

The impact on photovoltaic worth of utulity rate and reform and of specific market, financial, and policy variables : a commercialindustrialinstitution sector analysis

2019-04-12T11:39:03Z

The impact on photovoltaic worth of utulity rate and reform and of specific market, financial, and policy variables : a commercialindustrialinstitution sector analysis Dinwoodie, Thomas L.; Cox, Alan J. This work provides an assessment of the economic outlook for photovoltaic systems in the commercial, industrial and institutional sectors in the year 1986. We first summarize the expected cost and performance goals for photovoltaic technology, and then estimate aspects of the market and financial environment pertinent to assessment of a PV investment beginning in that year. Our analysis covers three geographic regions of the U.S., characterized by Boston, Madison, and Phoenix, and examines PV economic performance when operating against five different means for establishing utility backup rates. In addition, we assess the potential of a photovoltaic array to reduce a firm's monthly capacity charge.; Our results break down as follows. For our initial analysis, utilizing a base case set of financial parameters, we find that a peak-shaving credit (reduction in monthly capacity charge) attributed to a photovoltaic array can be significant, but not so much as to prove photovoltaics economic in the commercial sector in 1986. The institutional sector will find photovoltaics profitable if they discount at rates reflective of the returns on long-term government bonds. In our extended analysis, we perform sensitivity studies and examine the impact of combinations of government incentives. We find that photovoltaics will just turn economic in 1986 for the commercial/industrial sector given an optimistic set of incentive policies. We finalize our analysis with an important list of caveats to our conclusions.

A Monte Carlo method for the PDF equations of turbulent flow

2019-04-12T11:39:03Z

A Monte Carlo method for the PDF equations of turbulent flow Pope, S. B. A Monte Carlo method is presented which simulates the transport equations of joint probability density functions (pdf's) in turbulent flows. (Finite-difference solutions of the equations are impracticable, mainly because of the large dimensionality of the pdf's.) Attention is focused on an equation for the joint pdf of chemical and thermodynamic properties in turbulent reactive flows. It is shown that the Monte Carlo method provides a true simulation of this equation, and that the amount of computation required increases only linearly with the number of properties considered. Consequently, the method can be used to solve the pdf equation for turbulent flows involving many chemical species and complex reaction kinetics. Monte Carlo calculations of the pdf of temperature in a turbulent mixing layer are reported. These calculations are in good agreement with the measurements of Batt (1977).

Market diffusion and the effect of demonstrations : a study of the Denver Metro Passive Solar Home program

2019-04-10T12:59:35Z

Market diffusion and the effect of demonstrations : a study of the Denver Metro Passive Solar Home program Lilien, Gary L. This paper is a report on the reactions to and effects of the Denver Metro Passive Solar Home demonstration program, conducted in the Spring of 1981. The purpose of the program was to provide impetus to builders for incorporating passive solar designs in spec-built homes and to demonstrate those designs to prospective buyers to increase buyer-receptivity.; A pre-post exposure analysis of the effect of the program is reported on here, with four separate groups of prospective new home buyers studied. The first group heard publicity about and voluntarily visited a demonstration home. The second group saw the home, but was recruited to come to the site. The third group, also in Denver, did not see the site, but answered the same set of questions after receiving a description of and pictures of passive solar homes. The fourth group was a control group, similar to the third, but located in Kansas City. A total of 245 individuals participated.; Analysis of the study results leads to the following conclusions: 1. Due to the high level of prior awareness and pre-disposition toward passive solar in Denver, relatively few changes in attitudes occurred. 2. The demonstration was effective in reducing concern about aesthetics and about builders' capability of producing passive solar homes. 3. The demonstration encouraged those individuals exposed to the site to actively seek additional information about passive solar. 4. Exposure to the demonstration program reduced individuals' sensitivity to the cost of passive solar.; The study identified the following actions and communications program-messages that builders and public policy makers should consider in accelerating the diffusion of passive solar: 1. Teach prospective buyers how to evalute the financial aspects of passive solar. 2. Show how passive solar can provide protection against fuel price increases. 3. Develop statistics showing that passive solar increases the resale value of homes. 4. Develop relationships with the financial community so that passive solar can easily be included in conventional mortgages.; The implication of the study for evaluating the impact of a demonstration program on market penetration is discussed in terms of the theory of diffusion of innovations and implications for further research are reviewed.

The effect of natural water temperature variation on the monitoring and regulation of thermal discharge impacts : the role of predictive natural temperature models

2019-04-10T12:59:34Z

The effect of natural water temperature variation on the monitoring and regulation of thermal discharge impacts : the role of predictive natural temperature models Ostrowski, Peter; Stolzenbach, Keith D. Pollution control policies have been an outgrowth of increased awareness that measures must be taken to handle the increasing amounts of wastes and by-products of human activity. A particular problem in the policies is how to address wastes that have large natural variations due to natural sources and changing environmental conditions. This is especially true for the control of thermal discharges from steam-electric generating facilities into large bodies of water also influenced by solar heating and inflows of water from natural sources.; The basis for most pollution control policies in the United States is the set of regulations specifying ambient and effluent standards. Technology-based effluent standards have been increasingly used to provide a conservative basis for environmental protection. Ambient standards, based on impacts on humans or other life forms, however provide a viable regulatory approach for those effluents with costly treatment, particularly where large natural variability indicates the environment has a significant capacity to assimilate additional inputs. A major problem with ambient temperature standards indicated by two case studies of large thermal discharges, is the variability in induced and natural conditions which affect facility siting, design, and operation, and verification of compliance.; The Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant is an example of a large thermal discharge into a varying river environment. The final set of ambient temperature limiting standards for the site which have values near naturally occurring conditions, required the owners of the plant to redesign the heat dissipation system. The final design included the use of supplemental cooling (open, helper, or closed mode) to provide flexible plant operation under varying river flow conditions. Problems with real-time monitoring for compliance with the standards led to a study of various methods of verification. Simulation of plant operation found that adjusting the standards higher than naturally occurring values had larger effects than various monitoring strategies utilizing spatial and temporal averaging. A one-dimensional natural change in temperature model used in conjunction with real-time monitoring reduced power losses due to natural variation by about one half, but could not account for all the short-term variations in natural temperatures caused by topographic and river flow changes and density effects.; The Millstone Nuclear Power Station, located in a coastal environment is an example of a thermal discharge into an area with relatively constant long-term mixing conditions. Concerns over natural temperature variation were present throughout the site's history, although this has not affected plant operation since the ambient standards, based on biological evidence, were set to include full open-cycle operation. A natural temperature model, based on finite element circulation and dispersion models was developed as one means of addressing the natural variability issue. The model produced reasonable resolution of the horizontal temperature distribution and relative changes over a tidal cycle. The model had some limitations in those areas where solar heating significantly affects the vertical temperature distribution. If properly combined with baseline temperature monitoring, the natural temperature model provides an assessment tool for characterizing the physical environment around a thermal discharge. It also has potential in verification of compliance by combining with thermal plume monitoring and modeling efforts to define the ambient baseline conditions and the effects of natural conditions on the extent of a thermal plume.; It is recommended that ambient standards continue to be used in the control of thermal discharges to take into account the natural assimilative capacity of large bodies of water. Real-time monitoring of compliance with maximum rise temperature standards should not be used in areas of high natural variability. Natural temperature models which cannot adequately predict highly variable situations should not be used to correct real-time monitoring efforts. Therefore, flexible effluent standards which adapt to large changing conditions should be used based on modeled plant effects and potential biological impacts. Natural temperature modeling (including extensive monitoring of baseline temperature conditions) in both preoperational and operational studies should be used to provide a balance of the understanding between physical and biological characteristics in complex environments.

The ICF, Inc. coal and electric utilities model : an analysis and evaluation

2019-04-12T11:38:58Z

The ICF, Inc. coal and electric utilities model : an analysis and evaluation Wood, David O.; Goodman, Neil L. v.1. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is sponsoring a series of evaluations of important energy policy and electric utility industry models by the MIT Energy Model Analysis Program (EMAP). The subject of this report, an evaluation of the ICF, Inc. Coal and Electric Utilities Model (CEUM), is the second study in the series.; v.2. This volume presents an evaluation of the ICF, Inc. Coal and Electric Utilities Model (CEUM) documentation, and a verification of the model's implementation. Chapter 1 reviews the development history and previous applications of the CEUM. Chapter 2 presents an evaluation of the CEUM documentation, and Chapter 3 extends the existing documentation by providing a detailed mathematical formulation of the LP portion of the CEUM. Chapter 4 reviews the program structure and operating characteristics. Finally, Chapter 5 presents the results of verifying the correspondence between documentation and computer implementation, the accuracy of implementation, and the effect of implementation errors upon model results.; v.3. This volume examines two aspects of the ICF, Inc. Coal and Electric Utilities Model (CEUI1), including (1) the assumption of a constant mine lifetime and (2) the assumption of zero intertemporal rents. Chapter 1 provides an analysis of the determinants of mine lifetime, and empirical results of changing this key CEUM parameter. Chapter 2 describes the classical model of intertemporal rents, calibrates this model using data from the CEUM, and presents the effects on CEUM results of incorporating the estimated rate for intertemporal rents.; v.4. An important objective in evaluating the ICF, Inc. Coal and Electric Utilities Model (CEUM) was to analyze the properties of the coal supply cost portion of the model. In this volume we report the results of this analysis, including development and implementation of an analytical representation of the coal cost function submodel, and comparison of results from the analytic and original submodels.; v.5. This volume contains an overview description and an assessment of the utility generation capacity expansion component of the ICF Coal and Electric Utilities Model (CEUM). The first section includes adiscussion and description of those portions of the CEUM relevant to electric generation expansion. We discuss that version of the model extant in September 1978, which was used for producing the model results published by ICF, Inc. Following the descriptive portion of this volume there is an assessment of the capabilities of the CEUM generation expansion technique. Finally, Section 7 discusses application areas for which the CEUM would be appropriate or inappropriate.; v.6. This volume collects together several short papers and notes relating to demand, transmission, transportation, environmental controls, and other topics considered in the Energy Model Analysis Program (EMAP) review of the ICF, Inc. Coal and Electric Utilities Model (CEUM). Chapter 1 considers the CEUM treatment of electricity and non-utility coal demand, and Chapter 2 presents a method for approximating the CEUM demand component for potential use in simplifying calculation of full model results for supply component computational experiments. While suggestive, this procedure was not employed in the EMAP review. Chapters 3 and 4 consider the CEUM treatment of electricity transmission and environmental controls, respectively. Chapters 5 through 9 are short notes on the topics of the role of long-term contracts, use of the uniform distribution in allocating unclassified resources, issues of reserve classification, transport modes, and the role of the general inflation rate.; v.7. Throughout the Final Report (Volume I) and the companion volumes, reference is made to a series of computational experiments performed with the ICF, Inc. Coal and Electric Utilities Model (CEUM). This volume documents these computational experiments and presents the rationale for each experiment, the actual changes implemented, and the summary results.

Analysis quality report on the EIA Annual Report to Congress 1978, volume III : coal supply

2019-04-10T12:59:28Z

Analysis quality report on the EIA Annual Report to Congress 1978, volume III : coal supply Wood, David O.; Mason, Martha J. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is charged by Congress to prepare an Annual Report to Congress (ARC) which includes projections of energy supplies, consumption and prices, as well as the relation of energy to other economic activity. As an aid to users of ARC, the EIA Office of Analysis Oversight and Access (OAOA) is preparing "Analysis Quality Reports" on particular components of the energy information analysis system used in developing the ARC-78 projections. This report focuses on the Coal Supply Module used for the midterm projections of the ARC-78. The Coal Supply Module is part of the EIA's National Coal Model. The review and analysis presented here is based upon the MIT Energy Model Analysis Program's (EMAP) evaluation of the documentation and implementation of the Coal Supply Module sponsored by OAOA, and an indepth evaluation of a related model--the ICF Coal and Electric Utilities Model--which also employs the EIA Coal Supply Module. The indepth evaluation has been sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute.

Spot pricing of public utility services

2019-04-09T17:39:57Z

Spot pricing of public utility services Bohn, Roger E. This thesis analyzes how public utility prices should be changed over time and space. Earlier static and non spatial models of public utility pricing emerge as special cases of the theory developed here. Electricity is emphasized although the models can be used for natural gas and other public utilities.; If the transactions costs of price changes were zero, optimal prices should be changed continuously as supply and demand conditions change. Such prices are referred to as "full spot" prices. The full spot price of electricity at any point and time depends on total demand, availability of generating units, short run marginal operating costs of generators, the spatial locations of all supplies and demands, and the configuration of the transmission and distribution system. Since all of these are stochastic, so are full spot prices. Optimal "wheeling charges", i.e. price differences between points, also vary stochastically.; In practise actual prices must be changed discreetly, and are therefore only approximations to full spot prices. Price changes are of two basic types. Predetermined price changes are adequate to respond to anticipated changes in conditions. Price recalculations are needed to respond to unanticipated changes. The optimal timing and mix of recalculations and predetermined changes depend on: the transactions costs of each type of change; the stochastic and deterministic rates of change of full spot prices; and the ability of customers and suppliers to change behavior in response to different price patterns. Conventional time-of-use rates recalculate prices systematically only at occasional rate hearings, and change them only a few times a day. Such prices deviate greatly from full spot prices, for many utilities.; The thesis models customer behavior under full spot and other time varying prices, and discusses the types of customers likely to get the largest benefits from full spot pricing. The final chapter simulates behavior by four customers under six rates, from flat prices calculated a year in advance, to full spot pricing. The gross social welfare benefits of full spot pricing, before transactions costs, are three to ten times the benefits of conventional time-of-use pricing. The gross benefits of full spot pricing are less than ten percent of the customers' total energy costs. For small customers this may not be enough to counterbalance higher :ransactions costs from spot pricing. The thesis calculates "breakeven sizes" for each customer type such that larger customers should be on full spot pricing. These are on the order of one megawatt, for the customers and utility system modeled.; The thesis suggests that, for many large customers and independent power producers, conventional time-of-use rates are dominated by properly calculated prices which change every hour and are recalculated at least daily. For some other customers, rates of intermediate sophistication are best.

Development of computer code models for analysis of subassembly voiding in the LMFBR : interim report of the MIT Sodium Boiling Project, covering work through September 30, 1979

2019-04-10T12:59:27Z

Development of computer code models for analysis of subassembly voiding in the LMFBR : interim report of the MIT Sodium Boiling Project, covering work through September 30, 1979 Finkle, William Dean The research program discussed in this report was started in FY1979 under the combined sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), General Electric (GE) and Hanford Engineering Development Laboratory (HEDL). The objective of the program is to develop multi-dimensional computer codes which can be used for the analysis of subassembly voiding incoherence under postulated accident conditions in the LMFBR. This work is expected to contribute to LMFBR safety analysis in two ways. First, it will provide a capability for obtaining more dependable information concerning the effects of subassembly voiding incoherence in LMFBR's of current design. Second, it will provide the calculational tools needed to develop new designs with features that could inhibit radial void growth and thus, enhance the reactor safety.; Two codes are being developed in parallel. The first will use a two fluid (6 equation) model which is more difficult to develop but has the potential for providing a code with the utmost in flexibility and physical consistency for use in the long term. The other will use a "mixture" (< 6 equation) model which is less general but may be more amenable to interpretation and use of experimental data and therefore, easier to develop for use in the near term. To assure that the models developed are not design dependent, geometries and transient conditions typical of both foreign and U.S. designs are being considered.; In addition to the code development, a study is being conducted which is aimed at obtaining a basic understanding of flow oscillations observed in low power, low flow sodium boiling experiments conducted at ORNL using the THORS test facility. This study includes water tests to simulate low power low flow sodium boiling flow oscillations and development of an analytical model to predict the oscillations.; During FY1979 an effort has also been made to coordinate this program with other related DOE sponsored programs and activities concerned with sodium boiling R&D. The objectives of this effort are: (1) to assure maximum use is made of data and information available from related programs and (2) to facilitate eventual acquisition and use of the codes being developed by the appropriate DOE contractors and laboratories.; This report describes work completed on each of the above tasks through September 30, 1979.

Mobile-component housing and solar energy : the possibilities

2019-04-12T11:38:56Z

Mobile-component housing and solar energy : the possibilities Nutt-Powell, Thomas E.; Furlong, Michael This paper is part of a body of work directed at enhancing the acceptance of photovoltaics in various sectors of the U.S. economy. The focus here is on residential applications. The work is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy as part of its photovoltaics program. Earlier work has considered the nature of institutional forces in the housing sector generally, including a study of several housing developments incorporating solar thermal technologies with the assistance of the HUD-DOE Solar Heating and Cooling Demonstration Program. This earlier work resulted in a series of papers summarizing the application of institutional analysis methods to housing, including a research design (Nutt-Powell, 1979), and preliminary sector explorations covering housing production (Swetky and Nutt-Powell, 1979), governmental involvement in housing (McDaniel and Nutt-Powell, 1979), research and socialization in housing (Furlong and Nutt-Powell, 1979), energy provision in housing (Reamer, Heim and Nutt-Powell, 1979), and standards in housing (Parker and Nutt-Powell, 1979). The housing development case studies are reported in three papers (Nutt-Powell et al., 1979; Nutt-Powell, 1979b; Parker, 1980.) Additionally a separate analysis was undertaken of the HUD-DOE program, focused on implications for program design of PV acceptance in the housing sector (Nutt-Powell, 1980). This analytic work has paralleled and contributed to development of specific approaches to residential acceptance, including a Residential Application Implementation Plan (MIT EL/LL, 1979).; The various studies and plans completed to date have taken a very broad view of the housing sector. As the technology develops, coming closer to cost and production feasibility on a large scale, it is appropriate to begin more detailed analyses of the housing sector. Among such detailed analyses are those considering the possibilities for acceptance of PV among different modes of housing construction. This paper is one such analysis. The focus is on that form of housing production defined as "mobile-component housing," a type of housing built in a factory to a single national construction standard administered by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.; There are four sections in this paper. The first section describes the structure of the manufactured housing industry. It provides definitions and terminology necessary to a discussion of mobile-component housing.; It then reviews the production activity and approach, distribution, consumer and financing for this mode of housing. The second section presents the product characteristics of mobile-component housing. The third section reviews solar technologies, and discusses their relation to mobile-component housing. The fourth section focuses specifically on factors influencing receptivity to solar by the mobile-component housing industry. The conclusion to this paper summarizes the analysis as it relates to the possibilities for photovoltaics in mobile-component housing.

Pathways in coal thermolysis : a theoretical and experimental study with model compounds

2019-04-10T12:59:26Z

Pathways in coal thermolysis : a theoretical and experimental study with model compounds Ekpenyong, Ini A.; Virk, Preetinder S. Fundamental aspects of coal thermolysis were investigated, including how the chemical structures of aromatics, hydroaromatics, and alcohols affect their reactivities as hydrogen donors and acceptors in coal processing. The susceptibilities of substructural entities in coals to fragmentation via a number of thermal pericyclic and free radical mechanisms were probed, as were the factors governing relative reactivities within series of such coal model compounds. The theoretical part of the work applied perturbation molecular orbital (PMO) and frontier orbital theories, in conjunction with pi- and pseudo-pi MC's, to the study of model compound reactivity. This enabled prediction of reactivity patterns of H-donors, H-acceptors and coal-like structures as functions of their pi- and o-bond configurations, including heteroatomic effects.; Experimentally, the liquid phase reactions of the coal model compound PhOCH2Ph (Benzyl phenyl ether, BPE) were detailed for the first time in each of the four hydronaphthalene H-donor solvents, (1,4- dihydronaphthalene, or 1,4-DHN), (1,2-DHN), (tetralin), and (trans-decalin), in the temperature range 220*-300*C. The thermolysis of BPE exhibited a pronounced dependence on solvent structure, both with respect to product selectivities and reaction kinetics. The most preferential formation of light products, the most efficient hydrogen transfer, and the fastest kinetics were obtained with 1,4-DHN. In contrast, the overall BPE transformation rates in 1,2-DHN, tetralin and t-decalin were roughly comparable, despite qualitative differences in kinetic detail and heavy product (>C130) formation.; BPE thermolysis pathways were delineated as involving (a) rearrangement, leading to isomerization, (b) hydrogenations, leading ultimately to PhOH and PhCH3 products,and (c) addition reactions, engendering heavy products. Pathways (b) and (c) are competitive and, in each, self-reactions of BPE-derivatives vie against reactions between these and the donor solvent. Of the detailed free radical and pericyclic reaction mechanisms postulated, the latter rationalized many more facets of the BPE results than the former. The theoretical and experimental results were appraised against previous coal thermolysis literature.

Development of a three-dimensional two-fluid code with transient neutronic feedback for LWR applications

2019-04-10T12:59:25Z

Development of a three-dimensional two-fluid code with transient neutronic feedback for LWR applications Griggs, D. P.; Henry, Allan F.; Kazimi, Mujid S. The development of a three-dimensional coupled neutronics/thermalhydraulics code for LWR safety analysis has been initiated. The transient neutronics code QUANDRY has been joined to the two-fluid thermal-hydraulics code THERMIT with the appropriate feedback mechanisms modeled. A literature review of the existing coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics codes is presented. It indicates that all of the known codes have limitations in their neutronic and/or thermal-hydraulic models which limit their generality of application and accuracy. It was also found that a tandem coupling scheme was most often employed and generally performed well. A detailed steady-state and transient coupling scheme based on the tandem technique was devised, taking into account the important operational characteristics of QUANDRY and THERMIT. The two codes were combined and the necessary programming modifications were performed to allow steady-state calculations with feedback. A simple steady-state sample problem was produced for the purpose of testing and debugging the coupled code.

An evaluation of the coal and electric utilities model documentation

2019-04-12T11:38:55Z

An evaluation of the coal and electric utilities model documentation Goldman, Neil L.; Mason, Martha J.; Wood, David O.

Uncertainties in energy technology assessments

2019-04-10T19:48:12Z

Uncertainties in energy technology assessments Coate, David In order to make important contributions, energy technology assessments must be large, interdisciplinary projects, generally becoming very time consuming and expensive. This small project does not involve a large assessment, but instead combines several different types of investigations aimed at exploring the potential for, and significance of, uncertainty in the energy technology assessment process. First, a survey and discussion is presented of technology assessments, primarily from a methodological viewpoint. A general ideal methodology is developed and the potentials for incorporating uncertainties are described. Second, there is a detailed development of meteorology, demographic and health impact components, the key components in energy technology assessments. There is particular emphasis on the impacts of assumptions and potential methods for incorporating concepts of uncertainty. Finally there are included three small examples of energy technology assessments. These have been tailor-made to demonstrate the possibilities and importances of the concept of uncertainty in these assessments.

Model pathways in lignin thermolysis

2019-04-12T11:38:54Z

Model pathways in lignin thermolysis Klein, Michael T.; Virk, Preetinder S.

The photovoltaic market analysis program : background, model development, applications and extensions

2019-04-12T11:38:54Z

The photovoltaic market analysis program : background, model development, applications and extensions Lilien, Gary L.; Fuller, Frank H. The purpose of this report is to describe and motivate the market analysis program for photovoltaics that has developed over the last several years. The main objective of the program is to develop tools and procedures to help guide government spending decisions associated with stimulating photovoltaic market penetration.; The program has three main components: (1) theoretical analysis aimed at understanding qualitatively what general types of policies are likely to be most cost effective in stimuating PV market penetration; (2) operational model development (PV1), providing a user oriented tool to study quantitatively the relative effectiveness of specific government spending options and (3) field measurements, aimed at providing objective estimates of the parameters used in the diffusion model used in (2) above.; Much of this report is structured around the development and use of PV1, an interactive computer model designed to determine allocation strategies for (constrained) government spending that will best accelerate private sector adoption of PV. To motivate the model's development, existing models of solar technology diffusion are reviewed, and it is shown that they a) have not used sound diffusion principles and b) are not empirically based. The structure of the PV1 model is described and shown to address these problems.; Theoretical results on optimal strategies for spending federal market development and subsidy funds are then reviewed. The validity of these results is checked by comparing them with PV1 projections of penetration and cost forecasts for fifteen government policy strategies which were simulated on the PV1 model. Analyses of these forecasts indicate that photovoltaics will not diffuse significantly during the time horizon studied if government market development funds (money allocated to the purchase and installation of PV systems) are withheld. Market development spending has the most positive effect on photovoltaic diffusion in strategies where it is deployed early and concentrated in the residential and commercial sectors. Early subsidy spending had little influence on ultimate diffusion. The analyses suggest that any subsidies for PV should be delayed until photovoltaic costs drop substantially. Extensions of the model and approach to other technologies are discussed.

An institutional analysis of the solar heating and cooling residen tial demonstration program

2019-04-10T12:59:25Z

An institutional analysis of the solar heating and cooling residen tial demonstration program Nutt-Powell, Thomas E.

Homeostatic control : the utilitycustomer marketplace for electric power

2019-04-10T12:59:24Z

Homeostatic control : the utilitycustomer marketplace for electric power Schweppe, Fred C.; Tabors, Richard D.; Kirtley, James L.

OESYS : a simulation tool for non-conventional energy applications analysis : theoretical and operational description with user documentation

2019-04-10T20:24:51Z

OESYS : a simulation tool for non-conventional energy applications analysis : theoretical and operational description with user documentation Dinwoodie, Thomas L. A method is developed for assessing both the operational and economic performance of variable mixes of energy conversion technologies within their specific service environments. This method is incorporated into OESYS (Optional Energy Systems Simulator), a computer model with the specific capability to assess conditions of economic viability and service reliability for energy project evaluation. OESYS is especially well suited to handle stochastic (weather-dependent) generation technologies, and will simultaneously handle the generation, transfer, and demand of multiple energy quality levels (electricity, high/low grade thermal, liquid/gaseous fuels, etc.). The model can be applied to most use sectors, including residential, commercial, industrial and institutional, or combinations of use sectors. A model summary description is given on page 13.; This paper includes a theoretical description of the types of energy applications handled by OESYS, an operational description of the model, user documentation, and three sample studies.

Estimating pollutant exposures from coal fired power plants in a rural region

2019-04-10T12:59:23Z

Estimating pollutant exposures from coal fired power plants in a rural region Batterman, S. A. A critical issue in epidemiological studies of ambient air pollution is the measurement of pollutant exposure in the study population. Accurate characterization of air quality is necessary in any study relating exposure to health effects, and is essential in attempting to quantify risk estimates for specific exposure concentrations. Despite the importance of accurate air quality data, most epidemiological investigations have used relatively crude estimates of pollutant exposure. Results from such investigations may be only qualitative at best.; Early studies of air pollution health effects were limited by a lack of air pollution monitoring sites, and thus, exposures were often based on surrogate measures such as tons of coal consumed. With the introduction of reliable and reasonably accurate measurements of pollutant concentrations, several important constraints remained. These limitations include the relatively sparse siting of monitor sites and the variable relationship of monitor concentrations to the exposure experience of the study population. Other considerations in using monitor data include the selection of the pollutant specie(s), the duration of the sampling period, the use of short-term versus long-term averages, peak versus mean concentrations and the cyclical variation in pollutant levels.; The Chestnut Ridge region of Pennsylvania is the site of an ongoing study of health effects from air pollution. This site was selected in part because of the extensive and well maintained air pollution monitoring network, and the previous studies of pollutant dispersion in the area. Several studies of respiratory symptoms and pulmonary function in women and school age children have been carried out in the area. The current study evaluated aspects of air pollution exposure estimates which are relevant to these epidemiologic studies. Subsequent papers will discuss findings of the various epidemiologic studies which employ these air pollution measures.

Development of a model to predict flow oscillations in low-flow sodium boiling

2019-04-10T12:59:22Z

Development of a model to predict flow oscillations in low-flow sodium boiling Levin, Alan Edward; Griffith, P. An experimental and analytical program has been carried out in order to better understand the cause and effect of flow oscillations in boiling sodium systems. These oscillations have been noted in previous experiments with liquid sodium, and play an important part in providing cooling during Lossof- Piping Integrity (LOPI) accidents that have been postulated for the Liquid Metal-Cooled Fast Breeder Reactor.; The experimental program involved tests performed in a small scale water loop. These experiments showed that voiding oscillations, similar to those observed in sodium, were present in water, as well. An analytical model, appropriate for either sodium or water, was developed and used to describe the water flow behavior.; The results of the experimental program indicate that water can be successfully employed as a sodium simulant, and further, that the condensation heat transfer coefficient varies significantly during the growth andcollapse of vapor slugs during oscillations. It is this variation, combined with the temperature profile of the unheated zone above the heat source, which determines the oscillatory behavior of the system.; The analytical program has produced a model which qualitatively does a good job in predicting the flow behavior in the wake experiment. Quantitatively, there are some discrepancies between the predicted and observed amplitudes of the oscillations. These discrepancies are attributable both to uncertainties in the experimental measurements and inadequacies in modelling the behavior of the condensation heat transfer coefficient. Currently, several parameters, including the heat transfer coefficient, unheated zone temperature profile, and amount of mixing between hot and cold fluids during oscillations, are set by the user, and have a deterministic effect on the behavior of the model.; Additionally, criteria for the comparison of water and sodium experiments have been developed. These criteria have not been fully tested.; Several recommendations for future study are proposed, in order to advance the capability of modelling the phenomena observed.

Photovoltaics and the National Park Service : an institutional analysis

2019-04-10T12:59:21Z

Photovoltaics and the National Park Service : an institutional analysis Nutt-Powell, Thomas E.; Sorrell, Levi Anthony This paper is one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance. The case reported here involves the acceptance of PV by the National Park Service. As part of the Department of the Interior, the NPS is an agency exemplifying the federal nondefense sector. A modified organizational set model which concentrates on exchanges between and among organizational set elements, was used in this study. Though initially the inquiry from the Department of Energy to NPS to do a PV field test at a NPS site was considered the perturbation prompter, preliminary exploration showed an earlier perturbation-- the need for energy conservation. The differentiations which followed on this perturbation provided an envelope within which PV was subsequently considered and accepted. This envelope made an otherwise incomprehensible innovation more comprehensible by its association with an ongoing routine of acceptance of energy conservation initiatives. The critical role of the NPS's Denver Service Center as an innovation mediator is described. The DSC serves such a function routinely for the NPS, a reality which greatly enhances the likelihood of acceptance of innovations disseminated through this institutional entity.

Final report on improved uranium utilization in PWRs

2019-04-10T12:59:20Z

Final report on improved uranium utilization in PWRs Driscoll, Michael J. This is the final summary progress report on a research program' carried out within the MIT Energy Laboratory/Nuclear Engineering Department under the US Department of Energy's program to increase the effectiveness of uranium utilization in light water reactors on the once-through fuel cycle.; Two major themes, methodology and applications, characterize the research. A simple buit. accurate set of algorithms, designated as "the linear reactivity method" were developed to permit self-consistent evaluations of a broad spectrum of changes in core design and fuel management tactics.; More than a dozen suggested improvements were then evaluated, focusing primarily on retrofitable modifications and pressurized water reactors. In common with the findings of many other investigators, high burnup and routine end-of-cycle coastdown were identified as preferred options.

Optimization of the axial power shape in pressurized water reactors

2019-04-10T12:59:20Z

Optimization of the axial power shape in pressurized water reactors Melik, M. A. Analytical and numerical methods have been applied to find the optimum axial power profile in a PWR with respect to uranium utilization. The preferred shape was found to have a large central region of uniform power density, with a roughly cosinusoidal.profile near the ends of the assembly. Reactivity and fissile enrichment distributions which yield the optimum profile were determined, and a 3-region design was developed which gives essentially the same power profile as the continuously varying optimum composition.; State of the art computational methods, LEOPARD and PDQ-7, were used to evaluate the beginning-of-life and burnup history behavior of a series of three-zone assembly designs, all of which had a large central zone followed by a shorter region of higher enrichment, and with a still thinner blanket of depleted uranium fuel pellets at the outer periphery. It was found that if annular fuel pellets were used in the higher enrichment zone, a design was created which not only had the best uranium savings (2.8% more energy from the same amount of natural. uranium, compared to a conventional, uniform, unblanketed design), but also had a power shape with a lower peak-to-average power ratio (by 16.5%) than the reference case, and which held its power shape very nearly constant over life. This contrasted with the designs without part length annular fuel, which tended to burn into an end-peaked power distribution, and with blanket-only designs, which had a poorer peak-to-average power ratio than the reference udblanketed case.

Buoyant jet behavior in confined regions

2019-04-12T11:38:53Z

Buoyant jet behavior in confined regions Fry, David J.; Adams, E. Eric Previous confined jet studies have emphasized the behavior of non-buoyant jets inside ducts or near plane boundaries (Coanda effect). Buoyancy, however, is a major factor in the confined jet behavior experienced in many environmental fluid mechanics problems and, in particular, in the external fluid mechanics associated with an operating Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) plant. In many of these cases confinement and buoyancy offer opposing influences on jet trajectory and diffusion.; An experimental set-up was designed, similar to some encountered in OTEC, but simple enough to facilitate accurate measurements and to allow the results to be interpreted through dimensional analysis. The particular experimental situation chosen was a submerged, negatively buoyant, horizontal, radial jet discharging into ambient water which was initially uniform in temperature and density. A near-surface intake was included in some experiments and not in others. Two distinct flow regimes were possible depending on the relative importance of buoyancy and confinement.; The first flow regime (buoyancy-dominated) is termed a detached jet. The ambient region above the jet is an irrotational flow consisting entirely of original ambient fluid. The flow magnitude is determined by the entrainment requirements of the upper boundary of the jet and the intake flow, if any. The ambient region below the jet is made up of fluid pulled from the jet as it nears a vertical trajectory. The flow here is rotational and at a lower temperature than the original ambient fluid.; The second flow regime (confinement-dominated) is termed an attached jet. Low pressures in the circulating region above the jet pull the jet to the surface. After impact the jet flow splits and no longer can be characterized as a jet. The portion of jet flow downstream from the impact point is negatively buoyant with respect to the original ambient fluid and therefore sinks - some returning as entrainment for the underside of the jet. In this case neither the top nor the bottom ambient region has the temperature of the original ambient water.; Seventeen experiments yielded temperature and trajectory data on the radial jet in both of the flow regimes. Velocity data also were collected in the upper ambient region for the detached jet. Finally discharge conditions that caused transition from one flow regime to the other were determined. A hysterisis effect was noted as the conditions for "attaching" a detached jet were different from those needed to "detach" an attached jet.; Dimensional analysis yielded a single dimensionless number that was fairly successful at predicting the transition points between regimes. However, three dimensionless numbers were apparently needed to completely characterize the experimental behavior. The dimensional analysis was also helpful in formulating an analytical jet model.; An integral jet model (based on a spreading assumption) was successfully adapted to include effects of velocity and pressure fields in ambient regions. The model predicts jet trajectories, velocities, and temperatures, and transitions of experiments between flow regimes. The model can be applied to plane jets as well and buoyant and non-buoyant confined plane jet data from other studies were also compared with model predictions.

Behavior of buoyant moist plumes in turbulent atmospheres

2019-04-10T12:59:18Z

Behavior of buoyant moist plumes in turbulent atmospheres Hamza, Redouane; Golay, M. A widely applicable computational model of buoyant moist plumes in turbulent atmospheres has been constructed. To achieve this a one dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer (P.B.L.) model has been developed to account for atmospheric turbulence while the two dimensional time dependent fluid mechanics equations which govern plume behavior are numerically integrated. A cloud microphysics model has been incorporated into the basic numerical code to account properly for the water content of the plume. The overall dynamics of the plume is quite general. The buoyancy source in the plume include both the sensible heat and the latent heat absorbed or released in the plume. The turbulence of the plume accounts for buoyancy generated or destroyed turbulence and a universal k-E model has been set up along with the k-0 model.; The model is validated against complex field cases to demonstrate its ability to reproduce solutions to problems that are known. Comparisons to visible plume data show that both the dynamics of the plume are calculated with an acceptable accuracy. Comparisons with "conventional" entrainment model show that the model can simulate plumes better since it takes into account more physical phenomena.

The design and implementation of a demonstration supplementary control system

2019-04-10T12:59:17Z

The design and implementation of a demonstration supplementary control system Ruane, Michael Frederick The overall goal of the Chestnut Ridge Supplemental Control System (SCS) demonstration project was to demonstrate how an existing monitoring network, existing air quality models, and existing meteorological forecasting methods could be combined with a new control strategy to integrate SCS into electric power system operation. This final report covers the period February 1, 1974 to May 31, 1976.; A complete SCS for four power plants in the Chestnut Ridge region of Pennsylvania was implemented. The design is described in Section 2. The demonstration period, discussed in Section 3, showed that it is definitely possible to integrate a sophisticated SCS into electric power systems operation. The basic methods used in this project are felt to be directly extendable to other situations.; The only new technology originally envisioned for this project was the control strategy which decides the power system's response to predicted or potential violations. One of the key problems was the need for the control strategy to ensure that standards are not violated in spite of the presence of uncertainties in predicted ambient concentration levels. As discussed in Section 2.6, the implemented control strategy accounted explicitly for the uncertainties.; The only new technology originally envisioned for this project was the control strategy which decides the power system's response to predicted or potential violations. One of the key problems was the need for the control strategy to ensure that standards are not violated in spite of the presence of uncertainties in predicted ambient concentration levels. As discussed in Section 2.6, the implemented control strategy accounted explicitly for the uncertainties.The point source air quality model-used during the demonstration period was primarily a state-of-the-art model. However, as discussed in Section 2.5, a relatively new innovation involving downwash modeling was critical to the success of the demonstration.; During the course of the project, a large data base of SO concentrations, meteorological measurements, weather forecasts, and power systim data was established and stored in a manner which was easy to access and manipulate. Studies were done using these data, both before and after the actual demonstration. Some of the methodologies used and developed are applicable to a variety of problems including many non-SCS types. The results of these studies will now be summarized.; State-of-the-art air quality modeling was not as satisfactory as initially hoped in coping with the rough terrain in the Chestnut Ridge area. Research on improving point source air quality modeling for rough terrain was successfully undertaken using the data base after the demonstration period was over. The results are discussed in Section 5 with details provided in Appendix E.; The Chestnut Ridge area was discovered to have an unexpectedly high background SO level. The data base enabled this background problem to be addressed in %he four ways summarized in Section 4: mean concentration analysis, peak concentration analysis, EPA Larson method, and stochastic modeling. All four approaches are felt to be applicable in other situations where it is desired to understand the true nature of a background concentration. The stochastic modeling appears to be a new methodology with particularly great potential. Details of these four methods are given in Appendixes A, B, C, and D.; Uncertainty arising from air quality modeling errors, weather forecasting errors, fuel sulfur contents, power system economics, and plant availability plays a central role in SCS analysis, design, and implementation. A systematic analysis methodology was applied to the data base to explore how these various uncertainties propagate through the overall SCS and affect its operation. This work is discussed in Section 6.; The control strategy minimizes cost subject to the constraint that ambient standards are not violated. Because of the uncertainties, the control strategy operates in a conservative fashion, that is, it often takes control actions that would not be required if the uncertainties did not exist. The control strategy was applied to the data base to determine how the overall economics behave and how they are affected by the presence of uncertainty. These results are discussed in Section 7.; During the course of the project, opinions were developed on the potentia l future role of SCS. We feel that SCS provides a viable tool for dealing with the energy, economic, environmental crisis. These opinions are discussed in more detail in Section 8.

Sinterable powders from laser driven reactions : final report

2019-04-12T11:38:52Z

Sinterable powders from laser driven reactions : final report Haggerty, John Scarseth Extremely fine, uniform ceramic powders have been synthesized from Sil4 NH3 and C2H4 gas phase reactants that are heated by absorbing optical energy emitted from a C02 laser. Resulting Si, Si3N4 and SiC powders have been characterized in terms of parameters which are important for densification processes. They are virtually ideal. The spherical particles typically have mean diameters from 120 to 1500 A. The standard deviation is typically 25-45% and the diameter of the largest observed particle is typically less than twice that of the smallest particle. Purities are extremely high. The laser heated process has been modeled in terms of fluid flow and heat transfer criteria and characterized with respect to particle growth rates and temperature distribution. Many fundamental property measurements were made to provide data for these calculations. The process is extremely efficient, ~ 95% of the SiH4 is reacted in a single pass through the laser beam and approximately 2 kwhr. of energy are required per kilo of Si3N4.; The resulting powders have been processed into dense pieces using several shaping techniques. The Si powders were densified to precisely controlled levels designed to yield high density reaction bonded silicon nitride (RBSN). Nitriding kinetics were rapid at low temperatures because of the small particle sizes. Characteristic dimensions of RBSN microstructures approximated the initial particle dimensions. Sintering experiments with pure Si3N4 powder indicated that densification occurred without pressure or sintering aids. Characterization of mechanical properties showed that, with lower densities, strengths and KIC's equalled or exceeded those of high quality RBSN materials.

Perspectives on the government role in new technology development and diffusion

2019-04-10T12:59:16Z

Perspectives on the government role in new technology development and diffusion Bottaro, Drew; Carpenter, Paul R.

Shale oil recovery systems incorporating ore beneficiation : final report, October 1982

2019-04-12T11:38:51Z

Delayed neutron assay to test sorbers for uranium-from-seawater applications

2019-04-12T11:38:50Z

Delayed neutron assay to test sorbers for uranium-from-seawater applications Nitta, Cynthia K.; Best, F. R.; Driscoll, Michael J. Delayed Fission Neutron (DFN) assay has been applied to the measurement of uranium content in sorbers exposed to natural seawater for the purpose of evaluating advanced ion exchange resins. DFN assay was found to be particularly suitable for such testing because it is selective, nondestructive, yields quantitative results in the submicrogram range, and requires relatively simple sample preparation. Surplus components for a DFN system were obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, modified, re-assembled, and calibrated for use with M.I.T. irradiation facilities, following which procedures were developed, evaluated and applied to the experiments at hand.; Four experimental ion exchange resins developed by the Rohm and Haas (R&H) Company specifically for uraniumfrom- seawater applications were evaluated, together with hydrous titanium oxide (HTO), the leading inorganic sorber for this purpose. Two types of tests using natural seawater were employed: batch loading experiments (paralleling similar tests done by R&H), and fixed-bed column loading experiments using a test facility at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI). While some qualitatively consistent trends were evident among the various experiments, important quantitative inconsistencies were noted. The WHOI tests most closely approximated true in-service conditions; hence, more importance is assigned to these results.; The MIT/WHOI tests confirmed 1.5 mm HTO particle bed uptake of approximately 300 ppm U for a 30 day exposure, in good agreement with the results reported by other laboratories, worldwide. An anion exchange resin employing an amidoxime functional group also achieved this level of performance, and, in addition, exhibited considerably superior mechanical properties. Moreover, the resin performance is expected to improve when its properties are optimized for the present application.

An evaluation of the ORNL residential energy use model

2019-04-12T11:38:49Z

An evaluation of the ORNL residential energy use model McFadden, Daniel This report provides an evaluation of the architecture, empirical foundation, and applications of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) residential energy use model. A particular effort is made to identify the strengths and shortcomings of the model for alternative uses, and to identify areas where model structure and empirical support could be upgraded. Concrete suggestions are made for improvements in model logic, strengthening the empirical basis for behavioral and technical parameters, and reducing the biases in the model arising from aggregation. The overall conclusion is that the model has the potential to provide adequate forecasts of the aggregate impacts at a regional or national level of policies whose effects on households are relatively homogeneous. There are a number of model changes which would be relatively easy to implement, and which should substantially improve forecasts of this sort. On the other hand, the aggregate architecture of the ORNL model makes it fundamentally unsuitable for applications to geographical areas smaller than DOE regions, or to policies which have a heterogeneous impact on households.

Electric Generation Expansion Analysis System a progress report on RPI 1529

2019-04-10T12:59:15Z

Electric Generation Expansion Analysis System a progress report on RPI 1529 The long and short term behavior of light water reactor stainless steel clad fuel has been investigated in order to establish more adequate or applicable operation/design criteria. The performance record of stainless steel clad fuel used in both the Connecticut Yankee and San Onofre 1 power stations has remained essentially unmarred until the recent past. While the San Onofre 1 plant has maintained this record, the Connecticut Yankee station has experienced a number of fuel element failures since 1977. Consequently, emphasis has been placed on cladding behavior for anomalous operation experienced by the Connecticut Yankee reactor prior to its first observed coolant activity increase.; In order to predict cladding behavior, a fuel performance code (STRESS) has been developed with the capabilities of analyzing long term cladding creepdown behavior, cladding conditioning, and behavior during up-power ramping and power maneuvers. The effects of varied fill gas pressure and cladding creep rate on the stress/deformation behavior of stainless steel cladding for these performance areas have been investigated. Similar calculations are also performed for Zircaloy clad fuel so that a comparison can be made between these materials. Code limitations are discussed and some methods which compensate for insufficient modeling are reviewed.; Fuel element design and reactor operation recommendations are made for Connecticut Yankee (and San Onofre 1) stainless steel clad fuel. These include fill gas pressurization level, up-power ramp rate limitations, and possible cladding material preference. These recommendations are based on the results of the STRESS code and the trends which may be inferred from them.

Deregulating the electric utility industry

2019-04-10T12:59:14Z

Deregulating the electric utility industry Bohn, Roger E. Many functions must be performed in any large electric power system. A specific proposal for a deregulated power system, based on a real-time spot energy marketplace, is presented and analyzed. A central T&D utility acts as a market maker, setting prices to equilibrate supply and demand. Decentralized competitive firms invest and operate in response to current and projected spot prices. The paper explicitly addresses the many practical engineering and economic functions and issues which must be taken into account by any proposal to deregulate electric power generation. It does not answer the question of whether deregulation is a good idea.

Global energy futures and CO\2082-induced climate change : report prepared for Division of Policy Research and Analysis, National Science Foundation

2019-04-12T11:38:47Z

Global energy futures and CO\2082-induced climate change : report prepared for Division of Policy Research and Analysis, National Science Foundation Rose, David J.; Miller, Marvin M.; Agnew, Carson E.

Industrial interfuel substitution : Phase I report, model development and case study executive summary

2019-04-10T16:50:24Z

Industrial interfuel substitution : Phase I report, model development and case study executive summary Tabors, Richard D.; Russo, Gilberto

Electric utility forecasting of customer cogeneration and the influence of special rates

2019-04-10T12:59:14Z

Electric utility forecasting of customer cogeneration and the influence of special rates Pickel, Frederick H. Cogeneration, or the simultaneous production of heat and electric or mechanical power, emerged as one of the main components of the energy conservation strategies in the past decade. Special tax treatment, exemptions from fuel use restrictions, and regulatory policy changes were crafted to encourage its more wide-spread adoption in anticipation of higher energy conversion efficiencies. The expansion of cogeneration still faces a broad spectrum of problems, current and future: environmental restrictions; capital constraints; fuel prices; utility rates and future utility economics; and the difficulties of management.; The most debated issue has been the reform of rates between individual cogenerators and the local electric utility. Many of the major cogeneration studies in the late 1970's urged an analysis of the exact impact from current electric utility rates upon cogeneration project economics (1,2,3). The changes mandated by the Public Utilities Regulatory Policy Act of 1978 (PURPA) are now reaching the final implementation stage and the cogeneration projects of the mid- 1970s are nearing completion. To better understand the relationship between utility rates, the economics of cogeneration, and its potential development, the New England Electric System and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Laboratory Utility Systems Group began a study to refine methods for forecasting cogeneration in a specific utility service area with special attention devoted to the utility rates (4).; This paper surveys the insights gained from this effort, which is now nearing completion. Many of the central issues reflect conditions in New England, but this analysis should provide an approach for examining the question in other regions as well. Since the project has not undergone complete review, however, this paper reflects the opinions of the author alone.

Controlled nucleation and growth process for large grained polycrystalline silicon photovoltaics

2019-04-12T11:38:46Z

Controlled nucleation and growth process for large grained polycrystalline silicon photovoltaics Danforth, Stephen C.; Haggerty, John Scarseth; Van Gieson, Franklin David Research has been conducted to develop a new means of producing large grained polycrystlline thin films for photovoltaic applications. The process is one of growth of controlled crystalline nuclei in an a-Si film. For this process to be practicle, we must develop a-Si films with crystallization behavior such that the rate of spontaneous crystallization (nucleation rate) is essentially zero at temperatures where the growth rates are > 104 A/min. Amorphous Si films, deposited on oxidized single crystal substrates by RF sputtering, E-beam evaporation, and CVD, have been examined. The spontaneous crystallization behavior and the rates of nucleation and growth of crystals in the Si films have been evaluated using X-ray diffraction and TEM. The results show that microstructural features and impurities in the RF sputtered films result in very high nucleation rates and extremely low growth rates. The CVD films have high nucleation rates associated with the high deposition temperatures. The growth rates for Si crystallites into a-Si in the CVD films are only a factor of 20 below desired levels.; For process demonstration one requires a deposition process that will produce extremely high purity (- 1018/cm3) a-Si films at low deposition temperatures. It remains to be seen if this can be done economically by E-beam or conventional CVD processes.

Prospects for the recovery of uranium from seawater

2019-04-10T12:59:13Z

Prospects for the recovery of uranium from seawater Best, F. R.; Driscoll, Michael J. A computer program entitled URPE (Uranium Recovery Performance and Economics) has been developed to simulate the engineering performance and provide an economic analysis O of a plant recovering uranium from seawater. The conceptual system design used as the focal point for the more general AM analysis consists ofa floating oil-rig type platform, Asinlge-point moored in an open ocean current, using either high volume, low head, propeller pumps or the velocity head 4M of the ambient ocean current to force seawater through a mass transfer medium (hydrous titanium oxide (HTO) coated onto particle beds or stacked tubes), as in most process designs previously suggested for this service. Uranium is recovered Sfrom the seawater by an adsorption process, and later eluted . from the adsorber by an ammonium carbonate solution. A multi-product co-generating plant on board the platform burns coal to raise steam for electricity generation, desalination, and process heat requirements. Scrubbed stack gas from the plant is processed to recover carbon dioxide for chemical make-up needs.; The equilibrium isotherm and the diffusion constant for the uranyl-HTO system, which are needed for bed performance calculations, have been calculated based on the rather sparse data reported in the literature. In addition, a technique for calculating the rate constant of a fixed bed adsorbing system has been developed for use with Thomas' solution for predicting fixed bed performance.; The URPE program has been benchmarked against the results of previous studies by ORNL and Exxon, and found to make comparable performance and economic estimates when applied under the same set of ground rules. The URPE code was then used in an extensive series of parametric and sensitivity studies to identify optimum bed operating conditions and important areas for future research and development. The program showed that thin beds of small, thinly-coated particles were the preferred bed configuration, and that actively pumped systems out-perform current driven units.; Based on the URPE analysis, the minimum expected costs nof uranium recovered from seawater would be no lower than ~316 (1979$)/lb U308 for state-of-the-art adsorber material (capacity equal to 210 mg U/kg Ti), but might be reduced to the level of breakeven attractiveness of ~150 (1979$)/lb U30 8 if at least a four-fold increase in adsorption capacity could be achieved. Specific research and development objectives other than increasing particle capacity are also indentified. Prospects are considered to be sufficiently good to warrant recommending further work.

Control of NOx by combustion process modifications

2019-04-10T12:59:12Z

Control of NOx by combustion process modifications Beř, J. M.; Jacques, Malcolm T.; Farmayan, W. F. A theoretical and experimental study was carried out to determine lower bounds of NOx emission from staged combustion of a 0.7%N #6 fuel oil. Thermodynamic and chemical kinetic calculations have shown minimum NOx emissions at fuel rich stage equivalence ratios between 1.6 and 1.8 and fuel rich stage temperatures in the range of 1900 to 2100 K (2960 to 3812 0F).; In the experimental investigations the use of the MIT Combustion Research Facility permitted the detailed study of aerodynamically complex industrial-type turbulent flames in thermal and chemical environments similar to those in utility boiler furnaces. The primary stage fuel equivalence ratio, the flow and mixing pattern in the flame, the level of air preheat and the mode and quality of fuel atomization, were varied to determine their effect upon the NOx and combustibles emission.; Unstaged flame studies were carried out to establish baseline data for comparison with those obtained in fuel rich-lean staged flames in which a fuel rich stage was formed near the burner and the lean stage was established by the admixing of the rest of the combustion air at a distance farther downstream.; Results of the computational modeling studies have shown that in the fuel rich zone of the flame the fuel bound nitrogen compounds (FBN) can be converted to molecular nitrogen, N2, which renders the FBN innocuous for forming NOx in the lean stage of the flame.; Care has to be taken however to ensure that the mixing of the secondary air with the products from the fuel rich stage does not produce high flame temperatures, in excess of 1800K (27800K) and hence "thermal NOx." The modeling studies have shown also that the FBN conversion to N2 goes through a minimum as the fuel equivalence ratio is varied and that this minimum is lower, and shifts more towards the fuel rich as the fuel rich stage temperature is raised.; The experiments guided by the modeling have led to significant reduction in NOx emission; NOx was reduced from a level of 0.51 lb/106 Btu (400 ppm @ 3% 02) in a single stage flame to 0.10 lb/106 Btu (80 ppm @ 3% 02) in staged combustion when the fuel equivalence ratio in the fuel rich stage was maintained in the range of =1.5 to 1.7 (50 to 70% fuel rich), very close to that predicted from the model. The overall excess air was maintained in all experiments at EA=10%, and the combustibles (soot) emission was generally low, always well below the emission standard of 0.1 lb/106 Btu.; It is considered that an important factor in the very low NOx emission levels obtained in this study is the favorable mode of secondary air admixing with the fuel rich flame gases which ensure complete combustion without any additional "thermal" NOx formation.; It is emphasized that the conditions for these experiments were carefully selected to approach optimum values for the concentration and temperature history of the fuel. The tight controls of combustion aerodynamics and of the heat extraction along the flame available in the MIT Combustion Research Facility were highly favorable for the physical realization and experimental study of these flames.; Due to the practical difficulties in controlling mixing and heat extraction in existing utility boiler furnaces, it is not considered realistic to expect the same low NOx and soot emission levels by combustion WINY modifications. It is thought that the results of this study should be used as guidance in design strategy for low NOx emission from the combustion of high nitrogen-bearing fuels rather than as an indication of the absolute levels of NOx which can be achieved by staged combustion techniques in utility boilers.; Because of the significance of the flow and mixing pattern in the flame for both the formation of NOx and carbonaceous particulates it is recommended that in the second phase of this study the effect of mixing and heat extraction along both single and multiple staged flames be studied in more detail with a view of application of these controls to the combustion in large utility boilers.

Residential photovoltaic worth : an assessment of retrofit vs. new construction

2019-04-12T11:38:46Z

Residential photovoltaic worth : an assessment of retrofit vs. new construction Dinwoodie, Thomas L. This paper characterizes the basic differences between photovoltaic retrofit and new construction applications. It quantifies the tradeoffs forced by rooftop area constraints, special array mounting costs, maintenance costs, energy loads of older homes, and available terms of finance.; While the larger average energy loads of older homes tend to enhance the value of retrofit applications, other conditions serve to enhance the relative financial attractiveness of PV on newly constructed homes. New construction applications benefit from more attractive financing terms, lower installed system costs, enhanced efficiency with architectural integration (appropriate orientation), and generally lower costs of operation, maintenance and insurance. Many of the differences characterizing these two applications may be reduced or eliminated when retrofit PV systems are simply packaged, vis-a-vis both long-term financing and easily installed hardware.

Alternative electric generation impact simulator : final summary report

2019-04-10T12:59:11Z

Alternative electric generation impact simulator : final summary report Gruhl, Jim; Coate, David; Schweppe, Edmund This report is a short summary of three related research tasks that were conducted during the project "Alternative Electric Generation Impact Simulator." The first of these tasks combines several different types of investigations aimed at exploring the potential for, and significance of, uncertainty in the energy technology assessment process. A survey and discussion is presented of technology assessments, primarily from a methodological viewpoint. A general ideal methodology is developed and the potentials for incorporating uncertainties are described. There is particular emphasis on the impacts of assumptions and potential methods for incorporating concepts of uncertainty.; The implementation of an ideal assessment methodology resulted in the second task involving the coding of a simulator that should be viewed as a framework for assembling and manipulating information about the economics, emissions, ambient concentrations, and potential health impacts of different types and configurations of electric power generating facilities. The framework is probabilistic, and thus results in several measures of the range of various consequences, in other words a graphic display of the quality of the various predictions. The simulator is structured so that it is easy to improve the sophistication of certain manipulations, or to replace generic data, or update or add new data. The latest version of the simulator is available from the authors and can be operated in batch or interactive modes.; The third task involved the prediction of the ambient air quality standards over the next thirty years. This was required in order to have benchmarks against which to compare the performance of facilities which are simulated in the task 2 simulator. This third task required the development of a standards prediction methodology through a modified Delphi-style survey of a large set of consultants.; In the face of a neverending battle to gather current data and update the computer codes, the material described in this report is of general interest. The annotated computer codes are available separately.

Management decisions for cogeneration : executive summary

2019-04-10T12:59:10Z

Management decisions for cogeneration : executive summary Radcliffe, Robert R.; Tabors, Richard D. This report summarizes two interdependent studies which explore the underlying factors in the decision by private, private non-profit, and public sector facility owners to invest in cogeneration technology. They employ factor analysis techniques to explain the decision to invest and discriminant analysis to group the survey respondents into non-cogenerators and potential cogenerators. Data for both studies come from a survey of commercial, industrial, and institutional electric energy consumers who used more than 750 KW demand in any one month of 1981 for a selected electric utility in the Boston area. There were 129 usable responses to the survey or 32.2 percent of the population.; Cogeneration is the sequential production of thermal energy and electricity at one facility. A technology advocated for its high thermodynamic efficiency compared to separate production of steam and electricity, cogeneration represents an opportunity for a facility owner to substitute capital expenditure today for future operating expenditures. For the past six years, projections of increased cogeneration of electricity and steam consistantly occurred in the literature. Over the same period output of steam and electricity from cogeneration plants has declined. In the face of contradictions between thermodynamic efficiency based projections of cogeneration potential and the reality of declining actual use, most reports offer anecdotal references to market imperfections and non-economic decision variables to justify the contradiction.; First, The studies reported here confirm that a number of factors other than purely economic considerations may prevent use of cogeneration technology at the present time. These factors include: Uncertainty caused by regulatory action, Desire for energy self sufficiency by the organization, Financial flexibility, Experience with electricity cogeneration or self generation, Capital budget planning methods; Second, these studies provide a ranking of the factors involved in the cogeneration decision explaining most variance to least variance. However, the ranking of factors provides no measure of the "importance" of these factors in the decision to adopt or not adopt cogeneration technology.; Finally, the results of these studies can be used to provide a rough estimate of capacity (KW) and energy (KWH) available from potential cogenerators in this electric utility service territory and the probability that a facility can be a cogenerator. These studies project a maximum potential of 106 MW and 559,000 MWH of cogenerated electrical energy in the utility service territory between 1982 and 2002.

Coupled near and far field thermal plume analysis using finite element techniques

2019-04-10T12:59:10Z

Coupled near and far field thermal plume analysis using finite element techniques Kaufman, John T.; Adams, E. Eric The use of the open cycle cooling process for thermal power plants requires significant effluent discharges into aquatic environments. Both engineering and environmental considerations require accurate prediction of resulting temperature distribution in the receiving waters. Most predictive models have looked at one of two distinct regions of the discharge--the near or the far field--to the neglect of the other.; A methodology is developed in this work to combine the attributes of both near and far field models. A finite element far field code is utilized which calculates both the circulation and heat distribution over a large area of the domain. From the far field coarse grid, a semi-circular area is removed which corresponds to the near field region of the discharge. At the new edge of the domain, which represents the near-far field boundary, mass flux and temperature boundary conditions are specified which simulate both the discharge into and entrainment out of the domain resulting from the surface discharge jet.; Initial verification and testing of the model's characteristics is carried out in a hypothetical idealized domain. A more realistic verification is done at two prototype sites by comparing calculated results to previously acquired field data. The two sites are Millstone Nuclear Power Station (on Long Island Sound near Waterford, Connecticut) operating with two units and Brayton Point Generating Station (in Mt. Hope Bay near Somerset, Massachusetts) operating with three units on open cycle (existing conditions) and with four units on open cycle (proposed future condition). These comparisons suggest that the model can realistically describe the far field flow patterns associated with near field mixing thus making the model a useful tool in evaluating induced circulations, the source of entrained organisms, etc. These flow patterns are a direct function of the near field entrainment and discharge distributions which are specified as model boundary conditions and are thus easily calibrated and, if necessary, modified. Comparison between measured and predicted temperatures indicates that the predicted lengths and areas of isotherms are similar to measured lengths and areas. Predicted temperatures generally indicate greater dispersion than measured temperatures thus leading to overprediction of intake recirculation. Also, because boundary conditions on the near-far boundary have been assumed constant, the shape of predicted isotherms is not as responsive to changes in ambient current direction (e.g., tidal variations) as the measurements indicate.; Future efforts should emphasize grid and program coding refinement to improve computational efficiency, use of methods to reduce numerical dispersion and incorporation of time-varying near-far field boundary conditions.

A description of the thermal power system analyser structure and commands

2019-04-10T12:59:09Z

A description of the thermal power system analyser structure and commands Margulies, B. I.; Sarmma, Pradipa Kumara This report describes a system comprised of a set of interactive commands and a data base which aids in the modeling of thermal power systems with the aid of a computer. This system, named TPSA (Thermal Power System Analyser), is implemented as a subsystem within the Multics interactive system, which runs on a Honeywell 6180 computer. TPSA deals with models and data bases. A TPSA model is a program capable of computing various output parameters of a thermal power system when given the values of necessary input variables. A TPSA data base is a collection of named variables which a model can access to obtain the value of a parameter or record a result. The interactive commands facilitate setting desired values of the input variables, executing the program, and displaying the selected output variables at the end of the program run. Some special commands, generally found useful in modeling work are also included. Procedure to modify the data base or to create a new data base is described. Some typical examples are included that provide a record of the interactive session with TPSA, illustrating model execution and use of the "probe" command for debugging the program.

Common cause analysis : a review and extension of existing methods

2019-04-10T12:59:08Z

Common cause analysis : a review and extension of existing methods Heising, Carolyn D.; Rasmussen, Norman C.; Mak, Cho H. The quantitative common cause analysis code, MOBB, is extended to include uncertainties arising from modelling uncertainties and data uncertainties. Two methods, Monte Carlo simulation and the Method-of-Moments are used to propagate uncertainties through the analysis. The two different capabilities of the code are then compared. When component failure rates are assumed lognormallv distributed, bounded lognormal (Sb) distributions are used to evaluate higher moment terms, as required by the Method-of-Moments, in order to minimize the effect of the tail of the lognormal. A code using the discrete probability distribution (DPD) method is developed for analyzing system unavailability due to common initiating events (internal and external). Sample problems demonstrating each approach are also presented.

Strategic planning for electric energy in the 1980's for New York City and Westchester County

2019-04-10T12:59:07Z

Strategic planning for electric energy in the 1980's for New York City and Westchester County

An analysis of oil supply disruption scenarios

2019-04-11T01:05:34Z

An analysis of oil supply disruption scenarios Mork, Knut Anton This report brings the results of simulations of some oil supply disruptions on the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory Energy Macro Model. This model has previously been used to study the macroeconomic effects of the 1973-74 and 1979 oil price shocks, as well as for policy simula- -tions related to these historical events (Mork and Hall, 1980a, 1980b, 1981). Recent extensions of the model allow it to be used for simulation of possible future oil supply disruptions, such as the loss of oil deliveries from Saudi Arabia or the entire Persian Gulf region.; The extensions go mainly in the direction of more explicit modeling of thedomestic energy sector and of the world oil market. Although very important, these extensions are still in an experimental stage. Richard Gilbert of the University of California at Berkeley provided invaluable help in modeling the domestic energy sector. The short-run functioning of the world oil market was modeled along the lines suggested by Chao and Manne (1980). Sanjay Srivastava provided useful research assistance in preparing and programming the solution algorithm for the model. None of these persons are, however, in any way responsible for the contents of this report.; Three basic disruption scenarios are analyzed, of 3, 10, and 18 million barrels per day (mmbd) on the world level, respectively. Disruptions are modeled as leftward shifts in the world supply curve for oil (OPEC's 'price reaction' curve). All disruptions are assumed to last for one year, but another three years are assumed to be needed to restore the lost capacity. Each disruption scenario is simulated under three different policy assumptions. The first case assumes no new policy. The second case assumes a specific tariff on oil imports, rising from $2.50 in 1981 to a long-run value of $10.00 in 1984. In the third case, an ad valorem tariff is introduced gradually in the same way, from 7.5 percent of the world price in 1981 to 30 percent in 1984. As a last exercise, a 10 mmbd disruption is simulated under the assumption that all relative prices adjust perfectly to clear all markets.; Oil supply disruptions are found to add substantially to inflation during the disruption year and to cause substantial real losses. For a 10 mmbd disruption (the possible loss of Saudi Arabia), 6.4 percentage points are expected to be added to the inflation rate in the disruption year, and the net social cost in real terms is projected as $489 billion in 1980 dollars. An 18 mmbd disruption (the possible loss of the Persian Gulf) is expected to lead to an 8 percent drop in real GNP in the year of the disruption, to add 14 percent to the inflation rate and 6.5 percent to the unemployment rate in the same year, and to incur a net loss of $1,010 billion in 1980 dollars.; The two tariffs are found to lead to very similar results. The ad valorem tariff may hold a slight edge over the specific tariff by reducing transfer the real income to oil exporters during a disruption by slightly more than it increases the loss due to unemployment. Both tariffs are, however, clearly inferior to the alternative of no new policy because of the added losses and inefficiencies in normal periods.; If all prices and wages were free to adjust instantaneously, so that full employment were maintained everywhere during a disruption, then the world oil market would be.much higher and the price increase more than three times as high. This effect of unemployment on oil prices provides an automatic stabilizer in the world market and is an important part of the explanation of the apparent resilience of the U.S. economy to large disturbances in the world oil market.

A review of the Energy Productivity Center's Least-Cost Energy Strategy study

2019-04-09T17:33:43Z

A review of the Energy Productivity Center's Least-Cost Energy Strategy study Berndt, Ernst R.; Manove, Michael; Wood, David O. The Mellon Institute's Energy Productivity Center (EPC) has recently completed a study asking the question, "How would the nation have provided energy services in 1978 if its capital stock had een reconfigured to be optimal for actual 1978 energy prices?" Interest in this question is motivated by the unanticipated increases in oil prices since 1973. If policy makers are to learn from history it is important to know what would have happened if the increases in energy prices had been foreseen and if the nation had taken full advantage of that knowledge to minimize costs.; EPC concludes that if the 1978 capital stock had been transformed in conformance with a least-cost principal for providing energy services, then, given actual 1978 energy prices and energy service demands, per capita energy service costs would have been reduced by 17%. Market shares of the various energy types would also have been affected substantially. For example, while the gas share of total energy service demand would have increased slightly from actual 1978 levels, the share of purchased electricity would have fallen from 30% to 17% of total energy service demand, and improvements in energy efficiency would have increased from 10% to 32%.; EPC's findings have received considerable attention, both from the press and from policy makers. EPC interprets its results as indicating "... the direction in which we coul move to begin realizing some of the benefits of a least-cost strategy." The purpose of this report is to assess and evaluate the EPC methodology, data base, and results. Here we briefly summarize our principal findings.

Reactor core thermal-hydraulic analysis ; improvement and application of the code COBRA-IIICMIT

2019-04-10T12:59:05Z

Reactor core thermal-hydraulic analysis ; improvement and application of the code COBRA-IIICMIT Loomis, James N.; Hinkle, William D. Several improvements have been made to COBRA-IIIC/MIT. All of the improvements, except for one, have been made in response to the recommendations of past research. The improvements are included in a new version of the code as new modeling options. The new modeling options overcome limitations and disadvantages of old modeling options. The improvements are as follows: 1. Addition of a new fuel pin conduction model which includes temperature dependent properties and burnup dependent gap heat transfer coefficient. 2. Addition of a new heat transfer package which covers a broad range of flow regimes and contains more consistent logic. 3. Addition of a quality dependent mixing model for two-phase flow. 4. Addition of new correlations for BWR, CHFR and CPR calculation. 5. Addition of new options for calculating transverse momentum coupling parameters use for the single pass method.; The improvements have been tested individually and during application of the improved code to transient PWR and BWR test cases. Testing mainly involved comparison of the predictions of different modeling options and in some instances, comparison of predictions with experimental measurements. MDNBR, MCPR and MCHFR predictions showed only small sensitivities to the fuel rod and heat transfer modeling options used for the test cases analyzed. Differences in predictions of the old and new heat transfer models resulted in different clad temperature predictions. Clad temperature varies more smoothly in the axial direction when the new heat transfer model is used. The new heat transfer model predictions vary smoothly from one time step to the next with changing coolant conditions. Discontinuous change in old heat transfer model predictions caused failure of the flow solution to converge during transient BWR analysis. Fuel rod surface heat flux predictions of the old and new fuel rod models were close even though fuel rod temperature predictions showed some differences. The new mixing model did not improve subchannel flow and enthalpy predictions for BWR conditions. However, some improvement was seen in predictions for sub-cooled conditions. The CISE-4 MCPR predictions were in agreement with experimental CHF measurements. Hench- Levy MCHFR predictions were conservative for the CHF test cases. The new transverse momentum parameters had no significant effect on steady state hot channel predictions of the single-pass method.

The effect of virtual mass on the characteristics and the numerical stability in two-phase flow

2019-04-10T20:37:11Z

The effect of virtual mass on the characteristics and the numerical stability in two-phase flow No, H. C.; Kazimi, Mujid S. It is known that the typical six equation two-fluid model of the two-phase flow possesses complex characteristics, exhibits unbounded instabilities in the short-wavelength limit and constitutes an ill-posed initial value problem. Among the suggestions to overcome these difficulties, one model for the virtual mass force terms was studied here, because the virtual mass represents real physical effects to accomplish the dissipation for numerical stability. It was found that the virtual mass has a profound effect upon the mathematical characteristic and numerical stability. Here a quantitative bound on the coefficient of the virtual mass terms was suggested for mathematical hyperbolicity and numerical stability. It was concluded that the finite difference scheme with the virtual mass model is restricted only by the convective stability conditions with the above suggested value.

Integration of decentralized generators with the electric power grid

2019-04-10T12:59:03Z

Integration of decentralized generators with the electric power grid Finger, Susan This report develops a new methodology for studying the economic interaction of customer-owned electrical generators with the central electric power grid. The purpose of the report is to study the reciprocal effects of the operation and expansion plans of the utility, and the resulting price of electricity, and the demand patterns and expansion plans of customers. The system is modeled in an open-loop feedback mode that allows both the utility and the customers to update their plans and expectations for the next time period based on the other's actions in the current time period and based on any new information such as the current price of oil. The utility and the customers solve similar operation and expansion problems, except that each has control over different variables. In addition, each may have different expectations about the future. A complete methodology encompassing these ideas is developed and implemented.

PV1 : an interactive computer model to support commercialization policy for photovoltaics policy analysis

2019-04-12T11:38:45Z

PV1 : an interactive computer model to support commercialization policy for photovoltaics policy analysis Wulfe, Martin The purpose of this report is the demonstrate the use of PVI as a policy analysis device. This analysis consists of the creation of a base case and the subsequent running of 50 additional cases to demonstrate the effects of changes in spending levels.; Acording to PV1, government policy to accelerate the commercialization of PV takes the form of spending in five areas: advertising, market development, subsidy, technology development and advanced research and development. Each of these spending areas, or policy options, has a unique effect on the acceptability of PV in the potential market, and on the price of PV. The effects of a particular policy are measured by using four policy criteria: the total number of KWp of PV installed after 8 years; the rate at which the market is being penetrated during those 8 years; the percent of total KWp installed after 8 years that orginates from the private sector; and the overall efficiency of the policy, as measured by the total cost of the policy divided by the total KWp installed.; The purpose of the 50 cases was to illustrate the sensitivity of the policy criteria to changes in the spending levels of the five policy options. Each of these cases is examined separately, and then the results were used to contrast multiple regression equations. The equations, one for each policy criterion as a dependent variable, have 50 cases and use the policy option spending levels as independent variables. These equations act as linear versions of PV1, and as such can help the policy maker to estimate the effects of various spending levels on the policy criteria for policies that are similar to the base case.; The most important conclusions involved subsidy and market development. It was found that both of these spending options would be most effective if they started at low levels and gradually increased over time. Compared to the base case, it was found that market development spending could be reduced and subsidy spending increased, thereby improving all of the policy criteria. In general, market development and subsidy spending should be coordinated.

Cost goals for a residential photovoltaicthermal liquid collector system set in three northern locations

2019-04-10T12:59:03Z

Cost goals for a residential photovoltaicthermal liquid collector system set in three northern locations Dinwoodie, Thomas L.; Kavanaugh, John P. This study compares the allowable costs for a residential PV/T liquid collector system with those of both PV-only and side-by-side PV and thermal collector systems. Four types of conventional energy systems provide backup: all oil, all gas, all electric resistance, and electric resistance hot water with space heating by parallel heat pump. Electric space cooling is modeled, and the electric utility serves as backup for all electrical needs.; The analysis is separated into two parts. The first is a base case study using conservative market and financial parameters for comparing PV/T economics in three northern locations: Boston, Madison, and Omaha. All parameter estimates are for a privately purch.-sed residence, newly constructed in 1986. Three measures are used for establishing allowable costs, including system breakeven capital cost, al.owable levelized annual costs, and an allowable combined collector cost when compared directly with a side-by-side collector system. In the second portion of this study we examine the sensitivity of PV/T economics to pertinent physical, market, and financial variables. Here also we estimate the difference in economic outlook for PV/T in retrofit applications.; The results indicate that, for those northern locations modeled, the allowable cost for a combined collector system is roughly $10-$30/m2 less than that of separate (side-by-side) collector systems, at total array areas between 40-80 m . Below this range, allowable costs diverge, benefiting optimally sized separate collector systems. All systems look best when operating against all-electric homes. Retrofit applications appear favorable over newly designed homes, although here there is need to assess alternative retrofit options such as conservation.

Technological change, tax policy, and the derived demand for energy

2019-04-12T11:38:44Z

Technological change, tax policy, and the derived demand for energy Berndt, Ernst R.; Wood, David O.

User's guide for THERMIT-2 : a version of THERMIT for both core-wide and subchannel analysis of light water reactors

2019-04-10T12:59:02Z

User's guide for THERMIT-2 : a version of THERMIT for both core-wide and subchannel analysis of light water reactors Kelly, J. E.; Kao, S. P.; Kazimi, Mujid S. This report provides the THERMIT-2 user with programming and input information. THERMIT-2 is the most recent version of THERMIT. This new version contains all of the features and options of the original version of THERMIT documented in References 1 and 2. Additionally, the ability to analyze subchannels as well as improved modeling have been added to the code. These new additions are described in detail in Reference 3. The interested reader is referred to these references for further information about the physical modeling.; In this report, the programming information is given first. This information includes details concerning the code and data structure. The description of the required input variables is presented next. After the meanings of these variables are given, the sample problems are described and the THERMIT-2 results are presented.; THERMIT-2 contains subroutines from the IMSL Library, a proprietary package from International Mathematical and Statistical Libraries, Inc., Houston, Texas. These routines may not be redistributed or removed from this software for use in other software development, IMSL routines included are: LEQTIB, UERTST and UGETIO.

Management decisions for cogeneration : a survey analysis

2019-04-12T11:38:43Z

Management decisions for cogeneration : a survey analysis Radcliffe, Robert R.; Tabors, Richard D. This study explores the underlying factors in the decision by private, private non-profit, and public sector facility owners to invest in cogeneration technology. It employs alpha factor analysis techniques to develop factors with maximum generalizability to the universe of variables which potentially explain the decision to invest. Data for this study come from a survey of commercial, industrial, and institutional electric energy consumers who used more than 750 KW demand in any one month of 1981 for a selected electric utility in the Boston area. There were 129 usable responses to the survey(32.2 percent).; Cogeneration is the sequential production of thermal energy and electricity at one facility. A technology advocated for its high thermodynamic efficiency compared to separate production of steam and electricity, cogeneration represents an opportunity for a facility owner to substitute capital expenditure today for future operating expenditures. For the past six years, projections of increased cogeneration of electricity and steam consistantly occurred in the literature. In reality, output of steam and electricity from cogeneration plants has declined over the past decade. In the face of contradictions between thermodynamic based projections of cogeneration potential and the reality of declining actual use, most reports offer anecdotal references to market imperfections and non-economic decision variables to justify the contradiction.; This study confirms that a number of factors other than purely economic considerations may prevent use of cogeneration technology at the present time. These factors include: Uncertainty caused by regulatory action, Desire for energy self sufficiency by the organization, Financial flexiibility, Experience with electricity cogeneration or self generation, Capital budget planning methods; Second, this study provides a ranking of the factors involved in the cogeneration decision explaining most variance to least variance. However, the ranking of factors provides no measure of the "importance" of these factors in the decision to adopt or not adopt cogeneration technology.; Finally, the results of this study can be used to provide a rough estimate of capacity (KW) and energy (KWH) available from potential cogenerators. This study projects a maximum potential of 106 1MW and 559,000 tIWH of cogenerated electrical energy in the utility service territory between 1982 and 2002.

Analysis of strategies for improving uranium utilization in pressurized water reactors

2019-04-10T12:59:01Z

Analysis of strategies for improving uranium utilization in pressurized water reactors Sefcik, Joseph A.; Driscoll, Michael J.; Lanning, David D. Systematic procedures have been devised and applied to evaluate core design and fuel management strategies for improving uranium utilization in Pressurized Water Reactors operated on a once-through fuel cycle. A principal objective has been the evaluation of suggested improvements on a self-consistent basis, allowing for concurrent changes in dependent variables such as core leakage and batch power histories, which might otherwise obscure the sometimes subtle effects of interest. Two levels of evaluation have been devised: a simple but accurate analytic model based on the observed linear variations in assembly reactivity as a function of burnup; and a numerical approach, embodied in a computer program, which relaxes this assumption and combines it with empirical prescriptions for assembly (or batch) power as a function of reactivity, and core leakage as a function of peripheral assembly power. State-of-the-art physics methods, such as PDQ-7, were used to verify and supplement these techniques.; These methods have been applied to evaluate several suggested improvements: (1) axial blankets of low-enriched or depleted uranium, and of beryllium metal, (2) radial natural uranium blankets, (3) lowleakage radial fuel management, (4) high burnup fuels, (5) optimized H/U atom ratio, (6) annular fuel, and (7) mechanical spectral shift (i.e. variable fuel-to-moderator ratio) concepts such as those involving pin pulling and bundle reconstitution.; The potential savings in uranium requirements compared to current practice were found to be as follows: (1) O0-3%, (2) negative, (3) 2-3%; possibly 5%, (4) "15%, (5) 0-2.5%, (6) no inherent advantage, (7) 10%. Total savings should not be assumed to be additive; and thermal/hydraulic or mechanical design restrictions may preclude full realization of some of the potential improvements.

Interfacial exchange relations for two-fluid vapor-liquid flow : a simplified regime map approach

2019-04-12T11:38:43Z

Interfacial exchange relations for two-fluid vapor-liquid flow : a simplified regime map approach Kelly, J. E.; Kazimi, Mujid S. A simplified approach is described for selection of the constitutive relations for the inter-phase exchange terms in the two-fluid code, THERMIT. The approach used distinguishes between pre-CHF and post-CHF conditions. Interfacial mass, energy and momentum exchange terms are selected and tested against one dimensional measurements for a wide range of mass flow rate, pressure and void fraction conditions. It is concluded that the simplified regime map approach leads to accurate predictions for LWR applications, excluding depressurization events.

Management decisions for cogeneration : discriminating between users and non users

2019-04-10T12:59:00Z

Management decisions for cogeneration : discriminating between users and non users Radcliffe, Robert R.; Tabors, Richard D.

Uranium from seawater research : final progress report, FY 1982

2019-04-09T16:20:54Z

Uranium from seawater research : final progress report, FY 1982 Borzekowski, J.; Driscoll, Michael J.; Best, F. R. During the FY '82 campaign 14 new ion exchange resin formulations, prepared by the Rohm & Haas Company, were tested by MIT at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. The best of these chelating resins was again of the acrylic amidoxime type; it picked up approximately 100 ppm uranium in seven days' exposure to seawater, which represents a factor of better than two improvement over thq seven-day results for the best FY '81 candidate (which saturated at roughly 100 ppm U after 30 days' exposure). Saturation was not reached and, within experimental accuracy, uranium accumulated at a constant rate over the seven-day period; it is speculated that a useful capacity of over 300 ppm U would be achieved.; All resins of the styrenic amidoxime type were found to be an order of magnitude lower in their effective capacity for uranium in seawater than the best of the acrylic forms. Particle size effects, which were found to be less than expected from theoretical computations of both fluid and solid side mass transfer resistance, can not account for this difference.; Scanning electron microscope examination by R & H scientists of ion exchange resin beads from beds subjected to seawater flow for 30 days in MIT's WHOI columns showed that the internal pores of the macroretiCular- type resins become filled with debris (of undetermined nature and effect) during exposure.

Proceedings of a topical meeting on the recovery of uranium from seawater

2019-04-12T11:38:42Z

Proceedings of a topical meeting on the recovery of uranium from seawater Driscoll, Michael J. This report is the proceedings of a topical meeting on the recovery of uranium from seawater, held at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology on December 1-2, 1980. The meeting was sponsored by the United States Department of Energy and hosted by the MIT Energy Laboratory and Nuclear Engineering Department.; Workers from six different countries presented a total of sixteen papers in three major categories: the state-ofthe art resulting from past efforts; detailed results from sorber preparation and performance experiments; and overall system design aspects.; Sorbers discussed include hydrous titanium oxide, ion exchange resins, chitosan, humic acids and activated carbon. Systems for contacting seawater with the sorber include actively pumped, current and wave-powered concepts. Filter configurations include thin multilayer stacks, fluidized beds and free falling particles.; Several of the researchers estimated eventual production costs in the 200-400 $/lb U308 range, although values as high as 2000 $/lb were also quoted.; The bulk of the proceedings is comprised of the unedited papers, as provided by the authors. The proceedings also include edited transcripts of the discussions on all papers and the panel and concluding discussions.

Research on the external fluid mechanics of ocean thermal energy conversion plants : report covering experiments in a current

2019-04-11T10:47:15Z

Research on the external fluid mechanics of ocean thermal energy conversion plants : report covering experiments in a current Fry, David J. (David James); Adams, E. Eric; Coxe, David H. This report describes a set of experiments in a physical model study to explore plume transport and recirculation potential for a range of generic Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) plant designs and ambient conditions. Tests were conducted in a thermally-stratified 12 m x 18 m x 0.6 m basin, at an undistorted length scale ratio of 1:300, which allowed the upper 180 m of the ocean to be studied. Conditions which have been tested include a range of plant sizes (nominally 200 MWe - 600 MWe); a range of discharge configurations (mixed vs. non-mixed evaporator and condenser flows, multiple vs. radial slot discharge port(s), variation of discharge-intake separation and variation of discharge angle); and a range of ambient current speeds (0.15 - 1.0 m/s), and density profiles (surface mixed layers of 31 to 64 m). The tests described herein complement those reported previously (Adams et al., 1979) for a stagnant-ambient environment.; Measurements included temperature, dye concentration and visual observations from still and motion pictures. Results derived from these measurements are presented in tables and graphs in prototype dimensions for direct use by OTEC designers. Many of the results are also analyzed and presented in non-dimensional terms to extend their generality. No significant recirculation was observed for any tests with a discharge directed with a vertical (downward) component. For tests with a horizontal discharge, recirculation was observed to be a complex function of a number of parameters. For sufficiently shallow discharge submergence, low to moderate current speeds, and with plants employing a radial slot discharge, recirculation could result from dynamic pressures caused by the proximity of the free surface - despite the negative plume buoyancy. This mode was labelled "confinement-induced" recirculation and led to measurements of direct recirculation ranging from 25% to 40%.; For certain combinations of ambient current speed and generally positive plume buoyancy (resultIng from deeper discharge submergence), the plume was observed to billow upward resulting in "current-induced" recirculation. This was observed for both radial slot and multiple port discharge configurations although somewhat greater recirculation was observed with the former configuration. Measured recirculation for current-induced recirculation fell in the range 0 to 10% with a peak occurring at intermediate current speeds of about 0.5 m/s. Experiments with a mixed evaporator and condenser discharge showed less tendency for direct recirculation of either type than the separate (evaporator only) discharges, but the effects of recirculation, as measured by the drop in evaporator intake temDerature (below the ambient temperature at the level of the intake) were not very different. A simple mathematical model, based on the governing length scales, was successfully calibrated to the observed values of direct recirculation for the radial discharge case.; Various measures of plume transport were summarized to help designers predict the impact of OTEC operation on the environment and to establish guidelines for spacing of multiple plants. Minimum near field dilutions were observed in the range between 5 and 10 indicating that the peak concentration of any chemicals contained in the discharge would be between 10 and 20% of the discharge concentration. Near field horizontal and vertical dimensions of the plume wake were found to be correlated with a length scale derived from discharge kinematic momentum flux and ambient current speed. The rise and fall of the equilibrium plume elevation (above or below the discharge elevation) was found to be governed by a ratio of length scales based on the ambient density profile and the discharge kinematic momentum and buoyancy fluxes.

FINREG : a financialregulatory model for utility capacity expansion plan evaluation

2019-04-09T18:25:32Z

FINREG : a financialregulatory model for utility capacity expansion plan evaluation Klosowicz, Peter C. A corporate financial/regulatory model, called FINREG, is presented to simulate a utility's accounting practices, financial policy and constraints, and ratemaking environment. For each year of simulation FINREG will yield as output electricity rates, pro-forma accounting statements, selected accounting ratios, and the accumulated present value of dividends less common stock offerings. The model is used to perform a financial evaluation of two feasible expansion options for Boston Edison Company.; The two options are generated by OPTGEN, an MIT Energy Laboratory dynamic programming capacity expansion program. OPTGEN provides the capacity additions and annual fuel costs for each option. For the first plan, OPTGEN added an 800 MW coal unit in 1987 and a 250 MW coal unit in 1992 to the existing Boston Edison system. For the second, a 1000 MW nuclear unit was prespecified to begin operation in 1989, and OPTGEN added a 250 MW coal unit in 1987.; Financial and regulatory assumptions were specified for each option. FINREG generated selected statistics for the two options through 1998. The equity value associated with each option is estimated. Under the given assumptions, Boson Edison's shareholders are better off with the two coal unit expansion plan.

Energy laboratory data and model directory

2019-04-09T16:12:12Z

Energy laboratory data and model directory Lahiri, S.; Carson, J. Over the past several years M.I.T. faculty, staff, and students have produced a substantial body of research and analysis relating to the production, conversion, and use of energy in domestic and international markets. Much of this research takes the form of models and associated data bases that have enduring value in policy studies (models) and in supporting related research and modeling efforts (data). For such models and data it is important to ensure that the useful life cycle does not end with the conclusion of the research project.; In an effort to develop a mechanism for supporting the maintenance and appropriate access to Energy Laboratory associated models and data, the Laboratory's Center for Energy Policy Research (CEPR) has sponsored a project to prepare this Energy Laboratory Data and Model Directory, edited by Dr. Supriya Lahiri and Ms. Jacqueline Carson. The Directory provides a survey of selected models and data bases and includes descriptive information, current status, mode of access, and contact persons. This directory represents the conclusion of this project.

The international uranium market

2019-04-12T11:38:40Z

The international uranium market Neff, Thomas L.; Jacoby, Henry D.

The economic impact of state ordered avoided cost rates for photovoltaic generated electricity

2019-04-12T11:38:39Z

The economic impact of state ordered avoided cost rates for photovoltaic generated electricity Bottaro, Drew; Cox, Alan J.; Wheatley, Nancy J. The Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) of 1978 requires that electric utilities purchase electricity generated by small power producers (QFs) such as photovoltaic systems at rates that will encourage the development of new energy technologies. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's regulations for PURPA require state regulatory authorities to ensure that utilities pay their full "avoided costs" to the QFs for the energy and capacity provided.; This paper examines the various methods the states have devised to implement the federal policy, particularly the methods chosen for setting buy-back rates. The rates ordered by the states were based on the widely accepted method for determining avoided costs, and the states have approached the problem in a number of ways. The paper tries to compare several states' actions with rates estimated using utility expansion and rate-setting models and determines the impact on the potential break-even capital costs of a photovoltaic system using models which calculate photovoltaic worth.; This paper concludes that PURPA has increased the potential for the development of photovoltaics somewhat by guaranteeing the purchase of PY-generated electricity at a minimum price. Much of the benefit comes from guaranteeing utility purchase of photovoltaic power rather than from higher buy-back rates paid by the utility. However, there is little agreement among the states as to the "correct" method for setting avoided-cost buy-back rates. The models and techniques used in this analysis and developed at the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory offer a possible solution for estimating buy-back rates.

THERMIT-2 : a two-fluid model for light water reactor subchannel transient analysis

2019-04-12T11:38:30Z

THERMIT-2 : a two-fluid model for light water reactor subchannel transient analysis Kelly, J. E.; Kao, S. P.; Kazimi, Mujid S.

Use of virtual machines in information systems

2019-04-12T11:38:29Z

Use of virtual machines in information systems Donovan, John J. This paper presents a scheme using the virtual machine concept for creating: 1) An environment for increasing the effectiveness of researchers who must use analytical, modeling systems and have complex data management needs; 2) A mechanism for multi-user coordination of access and update to a central data base; 3) A mechanism for creating an environment where several different modeling facilities can access the same data base; 4) A mechanism for creating an environment where several different and potentially incompatible data management systems can all be accessed by the same user models or facilities.; The paper investigates and formalizes the performance implications of this scheme specifically directed at the question of response time degradation as a function of number of virtual machines, of locked time of the data base machine, and of query rate of the modeling machine.

Recent proposals for government support for the commercialization of shale oil : a review and analysis

2019-04-10T12:58:51Z

Recent proposals for government support for the commercialization of shale oil : a review and analysis This report is intended to accompany a paper prepared by the Policy Study Group of the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory, entitled "Government Support for the Commercialization of New Energy Technologies: An Analysis and Exploration of the Issues". The paper was prepared for the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration and is referred to herein as "Issue Paper".; The Issue Paper discusses the general principles of government-supported commercialization programs. This report applies those principles to a specific case, that of a proposed program for the commercial demonstration of shale oil production. This case has significance as a result of the national goal of greater energy independence.; The report begins with a brief discussion of a proposed commercial demonstration program, followed by a section that sketches the historical, technological and economic background of shale oil. The commercial implications of this background are discussed in the next section. Based on this information, the report then outlines probable industry action in the shale oil field if no government action were taken. The next section discusses rationales for the proposed program, both those explicitly offered by the government and others that could have been offered. The program is then evaluated for its effectiveness in dealing with the various problems involved in starting and maintaining a commercially viable shale oil industry. The findings of the analysis are summarized in the final section.

The residential demand for electricity in New England,

2019-04-09T17:39:34Z

The residential demand for electricity in New England, Levy, Paul F. The residential demand for electricity, studied on the national level for many years, is here investigated on the regional level. A survey of the literature is first presented outlining past econometric work in the field of electrical energy demand. An econometric model is then presented using a 1970 cross-section of sixty-seven New England electric utilities and their service areas as the data base. The special nature of the market for electricity, characterized by decreasing block rate structures, requires that both a supply price equation and a demand equation be estimated. A suitable technique, two-stage least squares, is used to obtain consistent coefficients, and elasticities of demand are obtained.; The residential demand for electricity is found to be significantly correlated with its average price, family income, family size, heating degree days, and the ownership -- public or private -- of the electric utility. Price and income are found to be the most important determinants of demand. The cross-elasticities of demand with respect to the average prices of natural gas and fuel oil are unexpectedly negative. This is thought to be due to poor data in the case of fuel oil and the unavailability of natural gas in much of the region. Another explanation may be the inability of the model to portray what might be a non-linear cross-elasticity function. The supply price is correlated with the quantity of electricity consumed, utility operation and maintenance costs, total number of customers, degree of urbanization, and the ownership of the utility. The structural supply and demand equations are also estimated using the ordinary least squares procedure. The coefficients derived in this manner are not significantly different from those obtained using the two-stage least squares technique, a rather surprising result considering the simultaneity of the demand and supply price equations.; Three methods are investigated for obtaining the total elasticities of demand from the reduced-form of the demand equation. These elasticities, contrasting with the direct elasticities derived from the structural equations, are presented for comparative purposes. Policy implications of the results of the equation estimation are discussed as are suggestions for further research in this field.

Solar heating and cooling of housing : five institutional analysis case studies

2019-04-10T12:58:50Z

Solar heating and cooling of housing : five institutional analysis case studies Nutt-Powell, Thomas E. This paper is one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance. The case studies reported here involve use of solar thermal technologies in variuos residential settings. All of the projects are part of the DOE-HUD Solar Heating and Cooling Demonstration Program. This program provides grants to developers to prompt them to use this innovation. Each of the five cases illustrates one or more institutional forces which influence the acceptance of solar energy in the residential sector. Friends Community is an instance of developer involvement for reasons other than profit, and the way in which other factors (such as designers and consumers) react to such housing development. Reservoir Hills Solar Houses illustrates the process of entry by new development firms, the role of public agencies in encouraging various forms of housing and the problems of using product innovations without adequately developed industry support infrastructures. Project Solar for Indiana illustrates the importance of supporting institutional networks, in this case the homebuilders association, the state government and key individuals, who play mediating and legitimating roles in solar acceptance. Solar in California discusses public efforts at a city level -- Santa Clara, a county level -- San Diego, and the state level in what is generally regarded as the state most active in turning to forms of solar energy. Finally, PNM/AMREP illustrates the process of large development corporation decision making, and the manner in which an investorowned utility is shifting its orientation of energy provision.

A user's guide to the MIT natural gas model

2019-04-12T11:38:29Z

A user's guide to the MIT natural gas model Lloyd, Kevin Richard

Summary : Photovoltaic International Plan Meeting, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 9, 1979.

2019-04-09T15:45:39Z

Summary : Photovoltaic International Plan Meeting, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, July 9, 1979.

The design of regulatory rules

2019-04-09T15:19:08Z

The design of regulatory rules Vogelsang, Ingo

Photovoltaics and the National Park Service : an institutional analysis

2019-04-10T19:20:01Z

Photovoltaics and the National Park Service : an institutional analysis Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan; Sorrell, Levi Anthony This paper is one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance. The case reported here involves the acceptance of PV by the National Park Service. As part of the Department of the Interior, the NPS is an agency exemplifying the federal non- defense sector. A modified.organizational set model which concentrates on exchanges between and among organizational set elements, was used in this study. Though initially the inquiry from the Department of Energy to NPS to do a PV field test at a NPS site was considered the perturba- tion prompter, preliminary exploration showed an earlier perturbation-- the need for energy conservation. The differentiations which followed on this perturbation provided an envelope within which PV was subsequently considered and accepted. This envelope made an otherwise incompre- hensible innovation more comprehensible by its association with an ongoing routine of acceptance of energy conservation initiatives. The critical role of the NPS's Denver Service Center as an innovation mediator is described. The DSC serves such a function routinely for the NPS, a reality which greatly enhances the likelihood of acceptance of innovations disseminated through this institutional entity. On cover: Energy Laboratory Utility Systems Program.

Individual burner air/fuel ratio control optical adaptive feedback control system

2019-04-12T08:35:01Z

Individual burner air/fuel ratio control optical adaptive feedback control system Beér, James Miklós; Jacques, M. T.; Teare, J. Derek Conventional combustion control systems for multiburner installations which rely on monitoring the average C02 and/or 02 content of the gases have a number of inherent limitations on their ability to maintain efficient plant operation. Air infiltration'into the flue or sampling lines has the same effect as an instrumental error in causing the control system to adjust the stoichiometry to an incorrect level. Even' when the overall stoichiometry of the furnace is correctly and accurately controlled it is still extremely difficult to ensure that no individual burners are operating inefficiently due to local maldistributions of air or fuel, or to poor nozzle spray characteristics. The potential for fuel savings and for'improved limitation of pollutant emissions has provided strong incentive for the development of individual burner fuel/air ratio control systems which would eliminate the shortcomings associated with the global control method. The present report first reviews past attempts to identify some unique property of an individual flame which can be reliably interpreted as an indicator of the flame behavior over a wide range of operating conditions.. Information potentially usable in this manner could be contained in the acoustic characteristics of the flame, in the local distribution of key chemical species, or in the electromagnetic radiation or absorption behavior of regions of the flame. For many reasons the previous studies have tended to concentrate on the optical portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, with particular emphasis on emission from flames over much of the ultraviolet (u.v.), visible and infrared (i.r.) wavelength regions. A brief review is given of the pioneering work of Penzias and his associates, and of the later work carried out at Sheffield University by Smith which led to the development of the LandTM control system. All of these studies dealt with the infrared emission from flames, wilth particular emphasis on the CO2 barnd at 4.3 pm, and on the H0/CO2 binds near 2.8 m. The report then addresses the experimental work carried out at M.I.T under the sponsorship of five utility companies supporting the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory Electric Power Program. This focused initially on attempts to use a Land control system in the Combustion Research Facility (CRF), with limited success in terms of achieving stability and adequacy of control when operating conditions were varied over a moderate range. The experiments in the CRF also yielded very useful data on the intensities and sources of u.v. emission from No. 6 fuel oil flames over a wide range of fuel equivalence ratio. One other set of experiments carried out in the CRF made use of equipment and personnel supplied by the Foxboro Company, and results of this work are discussed. Also included in the report is a summary of measurements carried out on a small methane-fueled burner which add appreciably to the available information on the dependence of the infrared emission on viewing location relative to the flame front and on fuel equivalence ratio. The overall results obtained under this program do not leave the prospect of individual fuel/air ratio controllers within immediate grasp, but they substantially advance the state of knowledge required for attainment of such control. They give a strong indication that satisfactory control could be obtained over a wide range of furnace operating conditions if both i.r. and u.v. signals were monitored and used in the control system. On cover : Combustion Research Facility.

Photovoltaic technology : a review

2019-04-11T10:15:36Z

Photovoltaic technology : a review McCleary, Janet

The political economy of the Middle East : changes and prospects since 1973

2019-04-09T18:54:49Z

The political economy of the Middle East : changes and prospects since 1973 Adelman, Morris Albert

The effect of increased national oil company sales on OPEC and the long run structure of the international petroleum market

2019-04-12T08:34:48Z

The effect of increased national oil company sales on OPEC and the long run structure of the international petroleum market Owsley, Henry Furlow Originally presented as the author's thesis, M.S. in the M.I.T. Alfred P. Sloan School of Management, 1979.

Some evidence on differential inventory behavior in competitive and non-competitive market settings

2019-04-09T16:15:35Z

Some evidence on differential inventory behavior in competitive and non-competitive market settings Hartman, Raymond S.

A probabilistic model of oil discovery

2019-04-15T00:42:04Z

A probabilistic model of oil discovery Smith, James Lee

The clumsy cartel

2019-04-15T00:42:04Z

The clumsy cartel Adelman, Morris Albert

Energy-income coefficients : their use and abuse

2019-04-12T08:35:00Z

Energy-income coefficients : their use and abuse Adelman, Morris Albert

Legislative mandates for energy model documentation and access : a historical analysis

2019-04-12T08:34:47Z

Legislative mandates for energy model documentation and access : a historical analysis Mason, Martha J.

Electricity demand in primary aluminum smelting

2019-04-12T08:34:59Z

Electricity demand in primary aluminum smelting Mork, Knut Anton The demand for electricity by primary aluminum smelters is estimated econometrically. Cross section data is used, including plant data for the U.S. and Norway and a national average for Japan. The data are sampled for two periods, one before and one after the 1973-74 energy price increase. The paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between electricity and an aggregate of all other inputs, assumed to exist. The estimated value of 0.1 is low, but significantly different from zero. Large price in- creases, such as the equalization of hydro and other power prices are found to result in substantial energy savings.

A game theoretic analysis of the economics of deep ocean mining

2019-04-15T00:41:59Z

A game theoretic analysis of the economics of deep ocean mining Dar, Vinod Krishna

Assessment of light water reactor power plant cost and ultra-acceleration depreciation financing

2019-04-10T20:17:30Z

Assessment of light water reactor power plant cost and ultra-acceleration depreciation financing El-Magboub, Sadek Abdulhafid.; Lanning, David D. Although in many regions of the U.S. the least expensive electricity is generated from light-water reactor (LWR) plants, the fixed (capital plus operation and maintenance) cost has increased to the level where the cost plus the associated uncertainties exceed the limits deemed acceptable by most utilities. The operation and maintenance cost has increased about 25% annually during the early 1970s. The main causes are increased requirements due to safety, environmental, and security considerations. The largest improvement is co-location of units, which gives up to 37% savings in O&M cost. The rising trend of LWR capital cost is investigated. Increased plant requirements of equipment, labor, material, and time due to safety, environmental, availability, and financial considerations and due to lower productivity and public intervention are the major causes of this rising cost trend. An attempt is made to explore the elements of a comprehensive strategy for capital cost improvement. The scope of the strategy is divided into three areas. The first includes improving the current design, project management, and licensing practices. The second area, standardization, is found to reduce cost by 6 to 22% through Duplication and Reference System options. Due to lack of commercial experience, the status of Flotation is not clear. Replication presents no significant improvement. The third area is improved utility structure and finance. Electric utilities with improved organizational structure can save up to 30% of their regional average capital cost. A proposed option of Ultra-accelerated Depreciation (UAD) financing is investigated. In addition to increasing the availability of capital, this UAD financing, unlike other financial schemes, is expected to decelerate future rise of electricity prices. A computer code, ULTRA, is developed to assess this option. Originally presented as the first author's thesis, (SC.D.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1979.

Financial influences on the behavior of oil exporters

2019-04-12T08:34:59Z

Financial influences on the behavior of oil exporters Dailami, Mansoor On cover: World Oil Project.

Hydrocarbon formation and oxidation in spark-ignition engines

2019-04-12T08:34:46Z

Hydrocarbon formation and oxidation in spark-ignition engines Heywood, John Benjamin; Keck, James Collyer; Rife, Joe Merrill This report summarizes the key results and conceptual findings from a three year research program on hydrocarbon formation and oxidation mechanisms in spark-ignition engines. Research was carried out in four areas: laminar flame quenching experimental and analytical studies; quench layer studies in a spark-ignition engine using a rapid-acting gas sampling valve; flow visualization studies in a transparent engine to determine quench layer and quench crevice gas motion; studies of heat transfer, mixing and HC oxidation in the exhaust port. More detailed descriptions of the individual research activities in these areas can be found in the theses and publications completed to date which form Volumes II to XI of the final report on this program.

A simultaneous preference reporting methodology applied to the Nebraska agricultural community

2019-04-12T08:34:46Z

A simultaneous preference reporting methodology applied to the Nebraska agricultural community Nutt-Powell, Bonnie R.; Sorrell, Levi Anthony. One of a series of publications which are part of the institutional analysis research conducted under the Department of Energy's Photovoltaic (PV) Program, this paper describes the Simultaneous Preference Reporting Methodology and reports the results of collecting data in conjunction with an agricultural field test of PV in rlead, Nebraska. The authors find that in the Nebraska Agricultural Community, PV is an undifferentiated innovation. They also conclude that the Simultaneous Preference Reporting Methodology is a promising diagnostic and predictive tool regarding the acceptance of institutional innovation. Prepared for the United States Dept. of Energy under Contract no. EX-76-A-01-2295, Task order 37.

Measuring the purchasing power of major currencies from OPEC's viewpoint

2019-04-12T08:38:27Z

Measuring the purchasing power of major currencies from OPEC's viewpoint Dailami, Mansoor

Institutional analysis of housing production : a preliminary exploration

2019-04-12T11:28:05Z

Institutional analysis of housing production : a preliminary exploration Swetky, Carole; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan This paper is one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic acceptance. It presents an initial inquiry into the housing production process, assuming a private sector perspective. Combined with other papers in this series, it forms a basis for institutional analysis of the DOE-HUD Solar Heating and Cooling demonstration program. In this paper the housing production process is characterized by six stages: * Building Concept -- the generation of an idea * Building Design -- establishing uses, designs, specifications * Building Finance -- price estimation and obtaining funds * Construction -- actual physical production * Service and Occupancy -- maintenance, management, repair, improvement, additions * Distribution -- sale, resale, refinance.c The final element, team selection, involves choosing persons and/or organizations appropriate to complete each aspect of housing production; it occurs through- out the process. Each of the stages is discussed, noting activities, actors, and constraints.

Cogeneration in the U.S. : an economic and technical analysis

2021-07-05T14:03:20Z

Cogeneration in the U.S. : an economic and technical analysis Pickel, Frederick H. Traditionally, only space heating and transportation have consumed more fuel than industrial process steam generation. Several recent studies have examined electricity and industrial steam supply and have recommended vigorous federal efforts to increase the cogeneration, or joint production, of electricity and process steam. The conceptual approach and analytic methods employed in these studies contain flaws that make them incomplete. The studies' recommendations are premised upon the existence of distortions in the markets surrounding cogeneration, but they offer only anecdotal evidence of such market failures. They propose increased cogeneration, citing aggregate energy savings for a single year and cumulative capital savings, but the analytic techniques they use in simulating market behavior and evaluating the desirability of various levels of cogeneration lack needed sophistication. This research addresses several of the methodological objections to the earlier studies. To unite this effort, the report poses two focal questions on cogeneration policy and economics: * Can the historical decline in cogeneration's importance be explained by changes in fuel prices and technologies alone? * What is the best future role for cogeneration if the choice is based on economic efficiency? First, the markets associated with cogeneration are examined from a qualitative perspective, employing the classic basic conditions/market structure/conduct/performance approach of industrial economics to explore the potential for inefficient market performance. Engineering production and cost functions are developed for a simple cogeneration plant design, offering insights into the economies of scale and joint production problems involved in the choice between cogeneration and separated production alternatives. Second, a multi-period linear programming model, called the Joint Generation Supply Model or JGSM, is form- ulated to simulate competitive market behavior in the aggregate U,S. electricity and process steam supply markets throughout a given time interval. JGSM is used to study the historical performance of these markets for 1960 to 1972 and the future role o cogeneration for 1975 to 2000, Appendices survey cogeneration technologies and the issues in integrating cogeneration plants into the utility system. The modeling of the historical question shows the decline can be explained by changes in cost conditions, but these results are very sensitive to the engineering cost assumptions. Analysis of cogeneration's future role indicates cogeneration should increase from its 4.5% share of electricity supply in 1975 to 9% in 1985; it should also serve more than half the process steam supply. If cogeneration remains at its 1975 share through 2000, the additional costs imposed are worth about $10 billion in discounted capital and operating expenses. Too much cogeneration can hurt as much as too little: forcing it up to a 20% share by 1985 imposes similar costs. For comparison of these losses to another issue, JGSM calculated that failure to develop low-Btu coalgasifying combined cycle power technologies results in losses worth $4 billion. Originally presented as the author's thesis, (M.S.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1978.

A two dimensional, two fluid model for sodium boiling in LMFBR fuel assemblies

2019-04-15T00:41:58Z

A two dimensional, two fluid model for sodium boiling in LMFBR fuel assemblies Granziera, Mario Roberto; Kazimi, Mujid S. A two dimensional numerical model for the simulation of sodium boiling transient was developed using the two fluid set of conservation equations. A semiimplicit numerical differencing scheme capable of handling the problems associated with the ill-posedness implied by the complex characteristic roots of the two fluid problems was used, which took advantage of the dumping effect of the exchange terms. Of particular interest in the development of the model was the identi- fication of the numerical problems caused by the strong disparity between the axial and radial dimensions of fuel assemblies. A solution to this problem was found which uses the particular geometry of fuel assemblies to accelerate the convergence of the iterative technique used in the model. The most important feature of the model was its ability to simulate severe conditions of sodium boiling, in particular flow reversal, which was shown in the tests performed with the model. Three sodium boiling experiments were simulated with the model, with good agreement between the experimental results and the model predictions.

Supply instability and oil market behavior

2019-04-12T11:28:05Z

Supply instability and oil market behavior Jacoby, Henry D.; Paddock, James Lester This paper analyzes the disruption in world oil markets which was triggered by the 1978-79 Iranian revolution. The resultant price rises are explored in the context of the behavior of the spot market and key OPEC countries. In particular, the economic and political roles of excess oil supply in the Persian Gulf nations are discussed. Conclusions for the likely future are presented, along with the implications for United States policy.

LWR fuel performance analysis : fuel cracking and relocation

2019-04-09T15:44:55Z

LWR fuel performance analysis : fuel cracking and relocation Maki, John T.; Meyer, John E.

A photovoltaic assisted residence with supplemental battery storage : searching for a complementarity

2019-04-12T08:38:25Z

A photovoltaic assisted residence with supplemental battery storage : searching for a complementarity Dinwoodie, Thomas Linn A significant mismatch may exist between residential load characteristics and array output from photovoltaic energy conversion systems. This has warranted a closer look at incorporating energy storage as a supplement device. Storage enhances total system energy capture although its weighted benefit is highly sensitive to the particular operating scheme. For utility interfaced systems which include a schedule for utility purchase of excess PV output, the advantage of the additional capture becomes a fairly complex function of the rated price structure, utility buy-back, and the system control logic. The problem arises since photovoltaics and storage each stand as independent investment opportunities for grid interconnected users, thus offering the potential for competition between them. This competition is characterized by a total system value somewhere below their additive stand-alone values. This study includes a search for a system control logic, along with the economic and location-specific conditions, which maximize total system (PV ana storage) value. The latter is defined in terms of the breakeven capital costs at which a user-owner would be economically indifferent toward purchase, given the utility as the sole competitor. Numerous customer-utility relationships are possible in addition to a variety of system configurations. Here, a utility interfaced storage operation without photovoltaics is examined against a tandem (PV-battery) arrangement with a range of utility buy-back policies. No studies were made to assess the value of only photovoltaics or only storage to the utility, though analysis on photovoltaics can be found in both Tatum (8) and Carpenter and Taylor (3). The residence hardware and behavioral simulation were accomplished with the use of models previously developed by members of the MIT Energy Laboratory. Photovoltaics Project

Institutional analysis of research and socialization in housing : a preliminary exploration

2019-04-12T08:34:45Z

Institutional analysis of research and socialization in housing : a preliminary exploration Furlong, Michael; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan This paper is one of a series prepared under the sponsorship of DOE's Photovoltaic(PV) Program as part of the institutional analysis of housing. It considers research and socialization functions of housing. In addition to a brief discussion of the theory and methods of institutional analysis, the paper presents a brief historical review of building in the US, identi- fying an historic heritage for the independence of institutional entities in the building industry. A review of the building industry's response to innovation (including a brief description of the introduction of PVC piping) suggests that the industry may be characterized as fragmented and localized, with many actors, each responsive to the dispositions of all others (especially the ultimate source of motivation, the consumer and his/her purchasing power). The building industry is structured such that no single actor predominates, but that any or several may be the source of either facilitation or obstruction of innovation. Overcoming economic and technological constraints is not enough. Given the normative importance of housing, anything identified as "new and different" will meet resistance, while innovations labelled as providing "the same with less uncertainty" will find a more willing audience.

Sinterable powders from laser driven reactions : annual report

2019-04-12T08:34:53Z

Sinterable powders from laser driven reactions : annual report Haggerty, John S.; Cannon, W. Roger. Novel methods for producing ideal powders for fabricating Si3N ceramic parts have been investigated. The characteristics sought were principally uniformly small diameter, equiaxed, high purity particles which are free of agglomerates. Two laser processes were studied. In the first, a CO2 laser source was used to heat the: reactant gases by coupling directly to them. Silicon (Si) and Si3N4 powders have been synthesi- zed directly from SiH4 and NH 3/SiH4 mixtures respectively. The spatially well- defined reaction zone and the combination of the rapid heating rates with the short times at reaction temperatures yielded very uniform and small diameter particles. Si N powders were produced with particle diameters entirely with- in the range o 00-200 A. The particles are equiaxed and nearly spherical. The Si powders had the same general characteristics, but exhibited a slightly larger range of diameters. An analytical model gives an approximate description of the process. The reaction proceeds as a thermal reaction at thresholds which agree with measured optical absorptivities. The absorptivities are high, which will permit good efficiencies to be achieved. We were not successful in inducing a multiphoton, unimolecular reaction. The second process uses selective heating to reduce the size of over- sized particles or agglomerates as well as modifying the shape of high aspect ratio particles. This process is based on the decreasing absorption efficiency of a particle to light when its diameter is less than the wavelength cf the incident light. Light induced comminution was demonstrated. The power required for comminution is higher than was originally anticipated, but it agrees with present analytical models. While the process was demonstrated with a 150 watt CO2 laser, this power limitation precluded an orderly investigation of process variables. It appears that 750-1500 watts are required to operate continuously. These and higher power C02 lasers are commercially available. We have successfully demonstrated both processes for producing superior Si ane Si3N4 powders. The results of the direct synthesis approach are viewed as extremely important. Their uniform, small particle sizes make them unique with respect to all other powders. While demonstrated with Si and Si3N4 powders, the process appears applicable to other materials. More work is required to determine the ultimate significance of the laser commi- ntion process. It appears that the process will work as anticipated and will induce the desired size and shape changes. It is apparent that it will be an energy intensive process. Prepared for U.S. Department of Defense under Contract no. N00014-77-C-0581.

Uncertainty and the pricing of exhaustible resources

2019-04-12T08:34:50Z

Uncertainty and the pricing of exhaustible resources Pindyck, Robert S. Demand and reserve uncertainty are included in a simple model of an exhaustible resource market by allowing the demand function and the reserve level to fluctuate via continuous-time stochastic processes. Thus, producers always know current demand and reserves, but do not know what demand and reserves will be in the future. We show that demand uncertainty has no effect on the expected dynamics of market price, while reserve uncertainty shifts the expected rate of change of price only if extraction costs are nonlinear in reserves. However if the demand function is nonlinear, both demand and reserve uncertainty affect the dynamics of production, whatever the character of extraction costs. The model is also extended to include exploration, first as a means of reducing uncertainty, and second as a means of accumulating reserves, with uncertainty over the future response of discoveries to exploratory effort.

Waste heat management in the electric power industry : issues of energy conservation and station operation under environmental constraints

2019-04-12T08:34:53Z

Waste heat management in the electric power industry : issues of energy conservation and station operation under environmental constraints Adams, E. Eric; Harleman, Donald R. F. Over the past three years, the Energy Laboratory, in cooperation with the R.M. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics at M.I.T. has been under contract with DOE/ECT to study various water and waste heat management issues associated with the choice of cooling systems for large steam-electric power plants. The purpose of this report is to summarize the major findings to-date of this study. In addition, an introduction or background section proceeds the summary so that the results can be better integrated into the larger picture of water and waste heat management.

The development and critical review of annual stock and gross investment data for residential energy-using capital

2019-04-12T11:28:04Z

The development and critical review of annual stock and gross investment data for residential energy-using capital Braid, Ralph Malcolm. The purpose of this paper is to develop pooled time-series cross-sectional stock and gross investment data for residential energy-using capital by state over the period 1960 to 1974. In the process of doing so, it is necessary to examine theoretical issues and empirical techniques, and to evaluate the accuracy of data sources currently available. One section of the paper is devoted to a careful theoretical and empirical discussion of appliance depreciation rates and their relationship to average appliance lifetimes. Another discusses benchmarking techniques and the conditions under which they are liable to be effective. The remainder of the paper concerns the development and evaluation of the actual data series. Whereas most of the discussion focuses on household appliances, the techniques discussed, evaluated, and utilized should be of wider interest. Similar techniques will allow construction of accurate gross investment data for household heating equipment.

Models of new product diffusion : current status and research agenda

2019-04-11T06:58:44Z

Models of new product diffusion : current status and research agenda Kalish, Shlomo; Lilien, Gary Louis Diffusion models, mathematical attempts to describe the growth patterns of new products and relate them to variables such as price and population characteristics, have seen major development trends in the past few years. This paper reviews that progress in order to isolate those areas most likely to be fruitful for further development. The paper first reviews some of the behavioral underpinnings of diffusion models: the phenomena being modeled. Next, the major explicit form models are reviewed and classified according to whether they have market-controls or not and according to the number of stages they explicitly consider. These models are related to larger-scale simulation models (especially in the solar energy area) that use explicit-form models as building blocks. The paper concludes with a discussion of some important advances that still need to be made in this important and rapidly-growing area.

Institutional analysis of governmental involvement in housing : a preliminary exploration

2019-04-15T00:41:58Z

Institutional analysis of governmental involvement in housing : a preliminary exploration McDaniel, Patricia; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan This paper, one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance, provides a preliminary exploration of governmental acitvities in the housing sector. It is based on theoretical formulations and utilizes methods developed in an earlier paper in this series. The housing process is examined in terms of seven institutional functions -- finance, research, political, regulation, production, service, and socialization -- from a governmental perspective. It is concluded that the federal government is most active in providing for finance, research, and political functions. State and local governments tend to perform the bulk of the regulation functions, though recent trends show increased federal involvement in large-scale regulation, through such mechanisms as the Environmental Impact Statement. The production, service, and socialization functions tend to be performed as a result of the direct realization of the first four.

The future development and acceptance of light water reactors in the U.S.

2019-04-12T11:28:03Z

The future development and acceptance of light water reactors in the U.S. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Light Water Reactor Study Group This report summarizes a two-year effort by the M.I.T. Light Water Reactor Study Group to assess the institutional, regulatory, technical, and economic factors influencing the development and deployment of LWR technology. The nuclear industry is confronted by a mix of problems which, if not addressed, may soon eliminate LWRs as a practical source of electric energy. The Study Group found that technical developments could improve nuclear plant capacity factors by 10 percent; furthermore, substantial economic benefits are possible through better use of existing technology, further technological improvements, and various financing schemes. However, the most pronounced problems are institutional and social, not technical and economic. Regulatory and institutional problems in licensing, constructing, and operating nuclear plants have created such uncertainty in the electric utility sector that the economic and environmental advantages of LWRs are seriously jeopardized. Regulatory constraints, unpredictability of government policy, unnecessary construction delays, and the resultant difficulty in obtaining the large-scale financing needed for new plant construction all discourage the electric utility sector from making long-term commitments to nuclear power. In the absence of a concerted government attempt to resolve these and other problems, public mistrust and legal intervention in the nuclear industry grow increasingly serious. Thus, the technical and economic improvements that could benefit the industry will be negated unless the government, the industrial sector, the electric utilities, and the public address the regulatory and institutional problems that are threatening to cripple the industry.

Mathematical predictive models for cooling ponds and lakes. Part B, User's manual and applications of MITEMP. Part C. A transient analytical model for shallow cooling ponds

2019-04-15T00:42:03Z

Mathematical predictive models for cooling ponds and lakes. Part B, User's manual and applications of MITEMP. Part C. A transient analytical model for shallow cooling ponds Octavio, Kathleen Ann Hurley; Adams, E. Eric; Koussis, Antonis D. In Part B a computer code, '"MITEMP: M.I.T. Transient Temperature Prediction Model for Natural Reservoirs and Cooling Impoundments," is presented as a feasible and efficient tool for the prediction of transient performance of man-made impoundments. Particular emphasis is placed on waste heat dissipation from steam-electric power stations. The code allows the simulation of the physical regime (temperature and flow patterns) of impoundments as a function of design and for long time periods. The code contains the following elements: (1) Natural Deep Lake and Reservoir Model, (2) Deep Stratified Cooling Pond Model, (3) Shallow Vertically Mixed Dispersive Cooling Pond Model, and (4) Shallow, Vertically Mixed Recirculating Cooling Pond Model. The physical and mathematical basis for the present computer code is developed in an earlier report entitled, "Mathematical Predictive Models for Cooling Ponds and Lakes, Part A: Model Development and Design Considerations," by G. Jirka, M. Watanabe, K.H. Octavio, C. Cerco and D.R.F. Harleman, R.M. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics, Technical Report No. 238, December 1978. The user's manual presented herein gives a detailed description of the computational structure of MITEMP and discusses input and output requirements. The application to several case studies is presented. A complete code listing is given in the appendix, as are some sample computations. In Part C, an analytical model is developed to predict the transient performance of shallow, vertically mixed cooling ponds. This model is suggested as an aid in the initial design or screening process, eliminating the need for repeated use of MITEMP for long term simulations. When a candidate design(s) is selected, its long term performance can be analyzed with the more precise MITEMP. "Also published as R.M. Parsons Laboratory Technical Report No. 262."

Papers presented at a Conference on Energy Prices, Inflation and Economic Activity, November 7-9, 1979.

2019-04-12T08:34:50Z

Papers presented at a Conference on Energy Prices, Inflation and Economic Activity, November 7-9, 1979. MIT Energy Lab

Methodology and definition of solar photovoltaic planning regions

2019-04-11T06:58:43Z

Methodology and definition of solar photovoltaic planning regions Tabors, Richard D.; Carpenter, Paul R. There are in use at the present time at least 10 differently defined sets of energy planning regions for the United States. This paper identifies and describes the existing energy planning regions and discusses their intended function. It then presents an argument for development of a set of solar regions within the United States and discusses the criterion (climate, economics and energy supply/demand) which are required for definition of such a set of regions. The final two sections of the paper discuss a methodology two stage factor analysis, for the definition of solar planning regions and the application of that methodology to the definition of a set of seven planning regions for the United States. Those regions so defined are: the Northeast (south as far as Virginia); the south (west as far as Oklahoma and Kansas); the southwest (including California and Nevada); the northwest (as far east as the Dakotas); the midwest (stretching from Minnesota to Ohio) and individually the state of Texas. Prepared for the United States Dept. of Energy under Contract no. EX-76-A-01-2295, Task Order 37.

Institutional analysis of energy provision in housing : a preliminary exploration

2019-04-12T08:34:58Z

Institutional analysis of energy provision in housing : a preliminary exploration Reamer, Andrew; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan; Heim, Steven This paper, one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance, provides preliminary exploration of the energy industry in relation to energy provision in the residential sector. It is based on theoretical formulations and utilizes methods of institutional analysis developed in an earlier paper in this series. Seven institutional functions -- production, financing, regulation, political, research, service and socialization -- are reviewed as to the manner in which they are performed in the energy industry. The structure of the energy industry is described, as is the regulatory web within which its financial decisions are made and its operations conducted. The persistent and increasing activity of all levels of government in determining the practices of the energy industry is dis- cussed. The research section identifies recent efforts to develop alternative energy sources. The services section especially emphasizes the delivery of energy to residences, while the discussion of the social- ization function highlights the ways in which attitudes on energy availability and use are developed.

Economic implications of open versus closed cycle cooling for new steam electric power plants : a national and regional survey

2019-04-11T06:58:42Z

Economic implications of open versus closed cycle cooling for new steam electric power plants : a national and regional survey Shaw, John J.; Adams, E. Eric; Barbera, Robert J.; Arntzen, Bruce C.; Harleman, Donald R.F. Current and anticipated thermal pollution regulations will prevent many new steam electric power plants from operating with once-through cooling. Alternative cooling systems acceptable from an environmental view fail to operate with the same efficiencies, in terms of resources consumed per Kwh of electricity produced, offered by once-through cooling systems. As a consequence there are clear conflicts between meeting environmental objectives and meeting minimum cost and minimum resource consumption objectives. This report examines, at both the regional and national level, the costs of satisfying environmental objec- tives through the existing thermal pollution regulations. This study forecasts the costs of operating those megawatts of new generating capacity to be installed between the years 1975 and 2000 which will be required to install closed cycle cooling solely to comply with thermal regulations. A regionally disaggregated approach is used in the forecasts in order to preserve as much of the anticipated inter-regional variation in future capacity growth rates and economic trends as possible. The net costs of closed cycle cooling over once- through cooling are based on comparisons of the costs of owning and operating optimal closed and open-cycle cooling configurations in separate regions, using computer codes to simulate joint power plant/ cooling system operation. The expected future costs of current thermal pollution regulations are determined for the mutually exclusive - collectively exhaustive eighteen Water Resources Council Regions within the contiguous U.S., and are expressed in terms of additional dollar expenditures, water losses and energy consumption. These costs are then compared with the expected resource commitments associated with the normal operation of the steam electric power industry. It is found that while energy losses appear to be small, the dollar costs could threaten the profitability of those utility systems which have historically used once-through cooling extensively throughout their system. In addition the additional water demands of closed cycle cooling are likely to disrupt the water supplies in those coastal areas having few untapped freshwater supplies available. Originally published as the author's thesis (M.S.), M.I.T., Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1979.

Planning and analysis for development and commercialization of photovoltaic energy conversion systems : final report

2019-04-15T00:42:03Z

Planning and analysis for development and commercialization of photovoltaic energy conversion systems : final report Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Laboratory in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning.. Near term consideration of development and commercialization requirements of photovoltaic power systems will increase the potential information generated during the experimental and field test phases of the photovoltaic technology development process. This report summarizes the research activities of the MIT Energy Laboratory Photovoltaics Project during its first year. The report discusses results of residential systems modeling, or market survey analysis and institutional analysis carried out in conjunction with the large scale photovoltaic field test at Mead, Nebraska, preliminary analysis of the social and environmental costs of photovoltaic power system development relative to conventional electrical power generation and the development of energy system R&D decision models. In addition, the report lists project reports and briefly discusses research work to be carried out in the second year of the project. Prepared for the United States Dept. of Energy under Contract EX-76-A-01-2295, Task Order 37.

Institutional analysis of daytime radio : an overview of the broadcast industry

2019-04-15T00:42:02Z

Institutional analysis of daytime radio : an overview of the broadcast industry Hendrickson, Ellen; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan One of a series of papers as part of the institutional analysis of acceptance of photovoltaic (PV) energy, this paper presents an exploration of the radio broadcasting sector in the US. Organized according to the seven functions fulfilled by institutions -- political, regulatory, socialization, production, financial, research,and service -- the paper shows that the radio broadcasting industry is strongly focused and centralized at the federal level in terms of the political and regulatory functions. The other strong force influencing the nature of the industry is the mutual dependency between radio stations and advertisers. Subsequent papers in this series will complete the institutional analysis of a field test of PV in the daytime radio area.

Application of sector and location specific models of the "worth" of renewable energy technologies

2019-04-11T10:15:37Z

Application of sector and location specific models of the "worth" of renewable energy technologies Tabors, Richard D Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind hold the potential for providing a significant portion of the U.S. energy requirements in the decades ahead. Unlike other energy sources their availability is determined by nonrandom events beyond the control of the consumer. In addition, macro-, meso-, and microclimatic conditions play a major role in determining the worth of such renewable energy sources to their owners. The worth of these new technologies will be a function of owner, location, and application as well as the traditional capital and operating cost, i.e., their worth to an owner in the southwest will be different form that to an owner in the northeast or the southeast. Dealing with energy sources, with geographic and sectorally specific energy values and with energy technologies with which we have little or no experience in the marketplace has created a set of challenges in analysis and modeling of these new technologies in competition with traditional energy technologies and with other emerging technologies. This paper will look at one simulation methodology for estimating the worth of renewable energy systems providing electricity, such as wind or solar photovoltaic power systems, and will discuss the interaction between such systems and traditional electric utilities with which they may or may not be integrated, be owned or be co-located. The paper concludes with a discussion of the issues associated with the incorporation of econometric techniques into such a simulation modeling structure.

An approach to parameter sensitivity analyses in model assessment

2019-04-15T00:42:02Z

An approach to parameter sensitivity analyses in model assessment Wong, Cecilia Sau Yen

An environmental and economic comparison of cooling system designs for steam-electric power plants

2019-04-12T11:28:04Z

An environmental and economic comparison of cooling system designs for steam-electric power plants Najjar, Kenneth F.; Shaw, John J.; Adams, E. Eric; Jirka, Gerhard H.; Harleman, Donald The selection of waste heat rejection systems for steam-electric power plants involves a trade-off among environmental, energy and water conservation, and economic factors. This study compares four general types of cooling systems on the basis of these factors. The cooling systems chosen for study are: once-through systems including surface canals and submerged multiport diffusers; shallow closed cycle cooling ponds; mechanical and natural draft evaporative cooling towers; and mechanical draft dry towers. The cooling system comparison involves, first, an optimization of each cooling system and then a comparison among optimal systems. Comparison is made for an 800 MWe fossil unit and a 1200 MWe nuclear unit located at a hypothetical midwestern river site. A set of models has been developed to optimize the components of each cooling system based on the local meteorological and hydrological conditions at the site in accordance with a fixed demand, scalable plant concept. This concept allows one to compare the costs of producing the same net power from each plant/cooling system. Base case economic parameters were used to evaluate the optimum system for each of the four general cooling systems followed by a sensitivity study for each parameter. Comparison of energy and water consumption follows from the results of the performance model, while comparison of environmental impacts is mostly qualitative. Some quantitative modelling was performed for the environmental effects of thermal discharges from once-through systems, fogging from wet cooling towers and water consumption from the ponds, wet towers and once-through. The results of the optimization models of each of the systems are compared on the basis of: performance - discrete distributions of environmental conditions and transient simulation; economics - using base case scenarios and sensitivity values to arrive at costs expressed in terms of production costs, annualized costs and present value costs; energy and water consumption; and environmental effects. The once-through systems were found to be the least expensive of the four systems, the most energy efficient, but potentially the most environmentally damaging. On the other extreme, dry cooling towers are the most environmentally sound while being the most expensive and least energy efficient. Finally, the results of the economic optimization are compared with results from previous comparative studies. Originally presented as a thesis (M.S.), M.I.T., Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1978, by Kenneth F. Najjar.

Development of models for the sodium version of the two-phase three dimensional thermal hydraulics code THERMIT

2019-04-12T08:34:58Z

Development of models for the sodium version of the two-phase three dimensional thermal hydraulics code THERMIT Wilson, Gregory James; Kazimi, Mujid S. Several different models and correlations were developed and incorporated in the sodium version of THERMIT, a thermal- hydraulics code written at MIT for the purpose of analyzing transients under LMFBR conditions. This includes: a mechanism for the inclusion of radial heat conduction in the sodium coolant as well as radial heat loss to the structure surrounding the test section. The fuel rod conduction scheme was modified to allow for more flexibility in modelling the gas plenum regions and fuel restructuring. The formulas for mass and momentum exchange between the liquid and vapor phases were improved. The single phase and two phase friction factors were replaced by correlations more appropriate to LMFBR assembly geometry. The models incorporated in THERMIT were tested by running the code to simulate the results of the THORS Bundle 6A experiments performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The results demonstrate the increased accuracy provided by the inclusion of these effects.

SERI photovoltaic venture analysis : long term demand estimation

2019-04-15T00:42:01Z

SERI photovoltaic venture analysis : long term demand estimation Tabors, Richard D.; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Energy Laboratory. This report presents the results of a sectoral demand analysis for photo- voltaic power systems used in the residential sector single family homes], the service, commercial, and institutional sector [schools] and in the central power sector. The results described are the output of a set of three normative modeling activities carried out by the MIT Energy Laboratory, They are based on the assumption that the actors, i.e., the utilities, schools, and homeowners, will switch to photovoltaic power systems when they are cost-effective relative to the competition, that is, centralized power generation using conventional fuels. In each case the assumption is made that the market for photovoltaic power systems will be a new market, not a retrofit market. As a result the annual (total for utilities) sales potential at a given price is estimated for each sector assuming a specific level of new installations in that sector, i.e., new single-family homes, new schools, and additions to utility stocks. As such, the results presented are maxima for a given application. While the methodology presented does not allow for any early acceptors, it does assume that once economic all new homeowners, school-builders, and utilities will buy to a fixed level.

Shale oil : potential economies of large-scale production, preliminary phase

2019-04-12T08:34:49Z

Shale oil : potential economies of large-scale production, preliminary phase Weiss, Malcolm A.; Ball, Benjamin Calhoun; Barbera, Robert J. Producing shale oil on a large scale is one of the possible alternatives for reducing dependence of the United States on imported petroleum. Industry is not producing shale oil on a commercial scale now because costs are too high even though industry dissatisfaction is most frequently expressed about "non-economic" barriers: innumerable permits, changing environmental regulations, lease limitations, water rights conflicts, legal challenges, and so on. The overall purpose of this study is to estimate whether improved technology might significantly reduce unit costs for production of shale oil in a planned large-scale industry as contrasted to the case usually contemplated: a small industry evolving slowly on a project-by-project basis. In this preliminary phase of the study, we collected published data on the costs of present shale oil technology and adjusted them to common conditions; these data were assembled to help identify the best targets for cost reduction through improved large-scale technology They show that the total cost of producing upgraded shale oil (i.e. shale oil accpetable as a feed to a petroleum refinery) by surface retorting ranges from about $18 to $28/barrel in late '78 dollars with a 20% chance that the costs would be lower than and 20% higher than that range. The probability distribution reflects our assumptions about ranges of shale richness, process performance, rate of return, and other factors that seem likely in a total industry portfolio of projects. About 40% of the total median cost is attributable to retorting, 20% to upgrading, and the remaining 40% to resource acquisition, mining, crushing, and spent shale disposal and revegetation. Capital charges account for about 70% of the median total cost and operating costs for the other 30%. There is a reasonable chance that modified in-situ processes (like Occidental's) may be able to produce shale oil more cheaply than surface retorting, but no reliable cost data have been published; in 1978, DOE estimated a saving of roughly $5/B for in-situ. Because the total costs of shale oil are spread over many steps in the production process, improvements in most or all of those steps are required if we seek a significant reduction in total cost. A June 1979 workshop of industry experts was held to help us identify possible cost-reduction technologies. Examples of the improved large-scale technologies proposed (for further evaluation) to the workshop were: - Instead of hydrotreating raw shale oil to make syncrude capable of being refined conventionally, rebalance all of a refinery's processes (or develop new catalysts/processes less sensitive to feed nitrogen) to accommodate shale oil feed -- a change analogous to a shift from sweet crude to sour crude. - Instead of refining at or near the retort site, use heated pipelines to move raw shale oil to existing major refining areas. - Instead of operating individual mines, open-pit mine all or much of the Piceance Creek Basin. - Instead of building individual retorts, develop new methods for mass production of hundreds of retorts.

Operational issues involving use of supplementary cooling towers to meet stream temperature standards with application to the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant

2019-04-11T03:48:48Z

Operational issues involving use of supplementary cooling towers to meet stream temperature standards with application to the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Stolzenbach, Keith D.; Freudberg, Stuart; Ostrowski, Peter; Rhodes, John A mixed mode cooling system is one which operates in either the open, closed, or helper (once-through but with the use of the cooling towers) modes. Such systems may be particularly economical where the need for supplementary cooling to meet environmental constraints on induced water temperature changes is seasonal or dependent upon other transient factors such as stream- flow. The issues involved in the use of mixed mode systems include the design of the open cycle and closed cycle portions of the cooling system, the specification of the environmental standard to be met, and the monitoring system and associated decision rules used to determine when mode changes are necessary. These issues have been examined in the context of a case study of TVA's Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant which utilizes the large quantity of site specific data reflecting conditions both with and without plant operation. The most important findings of this study are: (1) The natural temperature differences in the Tennessee River are of the same order of magnitude (50F) as the maximum allowed induced temperature increase. (2) Predictive estimates based on local hydrological and meteorological data are capable of accounting for 40% of the observed natural variability. (3) Available algorithms for plant induced temperature increases provide estimates within 1F of observed values except during periods of strong stratification. (4) A mixed mode system experiences only 10% of the capacity losses experienced by a totally closed system, (5) The capacity loss is relatively more sensitive to the environmental standard than to changes in cooling system design. (6) About one third of the capacity loss incurred using the mixed mode system is the result of natural temperature variations. This unnecessary loss may be halved by the use of predictive estimates for natural temperature differences.

Residential demand for electricity and gas in the short run : an econometric analysis

2019-04-09T17:28:21Z

Residential demand for electricity and gas in the short run : an econometric analysis Werth, Alix Short-run residential demand equations for electricity and gas are estimated in this study. Short-run demand depends on the appliance stock in existence. Use of the appliance stock is a function of the price of fuel, income, and the weather. The major difference between this study and others explicitly using appliance stock data is that appliances are not aggregated into a single stock measure. Demand consists of the sum of the individual demands for energy for each fuel-burning appliance type. Consequently, different price, income, and weather elasticities are estimated for each use of the fuels. The data consist of annual observations for each state for the years 1960-1975. Most of the appliance stock data were developed by Data Resources, Inc. These are supplemented by appliance data developed for use in this study. Two different methods of pooling time-series and cross-section data, the random and fixed effects models, are used, and a specification test is performed to test for consistency of the random effects model estimates. The results are somewhat mixed. However, they do suggest directions for further research. Fairly reasonable estimates in terms of average energy consumption for each type of appliance are obtained. The aggregate price and income elasticities fall in the range found in previous work. Price elasticities appear to vary among the demands for fuel for different end uses, but the differences are not statistically significant. Income elasticities for the individual fuel uses are disappointing; they are often of the wrong sign and magnitude. The most reasonable results are obtained for the appliances which consume the most fuel. Further work most likely would benefit from aggregation of the small appliances, leaving only for estimation the coefficients of demand for the major users of fuel and the residual aggregate appliance stock. Prepared under Dept. of Energy contract no. EX-76-A-01-2295, Task order no. 37.

Supply assurance in the nuclear fuel cycle

2019-04-11T10:15:37Z

Supply assurance in the nuclear fuel cycle Neff, Thomas L.; Jacoby, Henry D. The economic, technical and political issues which bear on the security of nuclear fuel supply internationally are addressed. The structure of international markets for nuclear fuel is delineated; this includes an analysis of the political constraints on fuel availability, especially the connection to supplier nonproliferation policies. The historical development of nuclear fuel assurance problems is explored and an assessment is made of future trends in supply and demand and in the political context in which fuel trade will take place in the future. Finally, key events and policies which will affect future assurance are identified. Errata sheet inserted.

Institutional analysis of standard setting in the United States : a preliminary exploration

2019-04-11T06:58:47Z

Institutional analysis of standard setting in the United States : a preliminary exploration Parker, Barbara; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan This paper, one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance, discusses standards and the standard setting process in the United States. Standards, and the manner in which standards are established, can play a significant role in facilitating or impeding the acceptance of solar technologies. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of standards for those concerned with ensuring the timely and appropriate acceptance of needed new energy sources in diverse economic and geographic sectors. The paper has three sections. The first provides a conceptual framework for understanding standards. The second section discusses a number of approaches for categorizing standards. Finally, the third section identifies the processes employed and the persons and organizations involved in the standards development process in the US.

Computer optimization of the MIT advanced wet/dry cooling tower concept for power plants

2019-04-12T08:34:55Z

Computer optimization of the MIT advanced wet/dry cooling tower concept for power plants Choi, Michael; Glicksman, Leon R. There is a projected water shortage problem in the electrical power industry by the end of this century. Dry and wet-dry cooling towers are going to be the solution of this problem. Our previous study on the combination of separate dry and wet cooling towers indicated that wet-dry cooling is an economical choice over all-dry cooling when some water is available but the supply is insufficient for an evaporative tower. An advanced wet-dry cooling tower concept was experimentally studied at MIT's Heat Transfer Laboratory and a computer model was developed for predicting the performance of this cooling concept. This study has determined the cost of the cross-flow type of this cooling concept in conjunction with steam electrical power plants. Aluminum is found to be economically preferable to galvanized steel as the cooling plate material. In our base case study using aluminum plates for a 1094 MWe nuclear plant at Middletown, the MIT advanced cooling concept is comparable to conventional wet-dry towers at water makeups larger than 45% and is slightly more economical at makeup larger than 50%. The incremental costs over the power production cost, 32.3 mills/Kwhr, of zero condenser system are 14, 13 and 12 percent for makeups of 45, 60 and 55 percent, respectively. For an 800 MWe fossil plant at Moline, this cooling concept is more economical than conventional wet-dry towers at water makeups larger than 27%. The incremental costs over 20.8 mills/Kwhr of zero condenser system are 12.2 and 10.6 percent for makeups of 37 and 50 percent, respectively. For these two makeups, going from conventional wet-dry to MIT advanced concept results in 13 and 21 percent, respectively, savings in the incremental cost. When the water makeup exceeds 30%, the MIT advanced wet-dry concept is pre- ferable to conventional wet-dry towers for a 1200 MWe nuclear plant at Moline, Ill. The incremental costs over zero condenser system of 21.1 mills/ Kwhr are 12.8 and 11.5 percent for makeups of 40 and 50 percent, respectively. Using the MIT advanced concept instead of conventional wet-dry towers results in 28 and 33 percent reduction of incremental power production cost for these two makeups, respectively.

Between market supply and vertical integration : the role of long-term contracts in coal trade

2019-04-12T08:34:52Z

Between market supply and vertical integration : the role of long-term contracts in coal trade Vogelsang, Ingo

Center pivot irrigation in Nebraska : an institutional analysis case study

2019-04-12T08:35:00Z

Center pivot irrigation in Nebraska : an institutional analysis case study Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan; Landers, Stewart Jay This paper is one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance. It reports the results of a study of institutional factors influencing acceptance of center-pivot irrigation in the Nebraska agricultural community. Center-pivot irrigation (CP) was an interesting topic for study because (1) it was a major recently introduced technological' innovation in agriculture which (2) had potentially detrimental attributes--water and energy intensity. A brief historical review of the introduction and acceptance of center-pivot irrigation in the Nebraska agricultural community is presented. Institutions which were a likely part of this institutional arena relative to CP introduction and acceptance were identified. Their likely responses were hypothesized, then data collected regarding actual response. Three broad conslusions are drawn. First, there were definite, even controlling institutional influences in the acceptance of CP in the Nebraska agricultural community. Second, acceptance was facilitated in the Nebraska agricultural community because the innovation differentiation process yielded secondary attributes of CP that met prevailing social orders--productivity, automation, and felt need. Third, the innovation differentiation process for CP in the Nebraska agricultural community yielded both transformation and disconnection of detrimental attributes, creating the circumstances for attribute redefinition in the first instance and another innovation in the second instance.

Computer optimization of dry and wet/dry cooling tower systems for large fossil and nuclear power plants

2019-04-15T00:42:00Z

Computer optimization of dry and wet/dry cooling tower systems for large fossil and nuclear power plants Choi, Michael; Glicksman, Leon R. There is a projected shortage of water supply for evaporative cooling in electric power industry by the end of this century, Thus, dry and wet/dry cooling tower systems are going to be the solution for this problem. This study has determined the cost of dry cooling compared to the conventional cooling methods. Also, the savings by using wet/dry instead of all-dry cooling has been determined. A total optimization has been performed for power plants with dry cooling tower systems using metal-finned-tube heat exchangers and surface condensers. The optimization minimizes the power production cost. The program does not use pre-designed heat exchanger modules. Rather, it optimizes the heat exchanger and its air and water flow rates. In the base case study, the-method of replacing lost capacity assumes the use of gas turbines. As a result of using dry cooling towers in an 800 MWe fossil plant, the incremental costs with the use of high back pressure turbine and conventional turbine over all-wet cooling are 11% and 15%, respectively. For a 1200 MWe nuclear plant, these are 22% and 25%, respectively. Since the method of making up lost capacity depends on the situation of a utility, considerable effort has been placed on testing the effects of using different methods of replacing lost capacity at high ambient temperatures by purchased energy. The results indicate that the optimization is very sensitive to the method of making up lost capacity. It is, there- fore, important to do an accurate representation of all possible methods of making up capacity loss when optimizating power plants with dry cooling towers. A solution for the problem of losing generation capability by a power plant due to the use of a dry cooling tower is to supplement the dry tower during the hours of peak ambient temperatures by a wet tower. A separate wet/dry cooling tower system with series tower arrangement has been considered in this study. In this cooling system, the physical separation of the dry and wet towers protects the dry tower airside heat transfer surface from the corrosion problem. It also allows complete freedom of design and operation of the dry and wet towers. A wet/dry cooling system can be tailored to meet any amount of water available for cooling. The results of the optimization show that wet/dry cooling towers have significant savings over all-dry cooling, For example, in either fossil or nuclear plant, the dry tower heat transfer surface of 30% makeup water wet/dry cooling system is only about fifty percent of that in all-dry cooling using high back pressure turbines. This results in a reduction of 27% and 37% of the incremental cost in the fossil and nuclear plant, respectively, over all-wet cooling. Even the availability of a small percentage of makeup water reduces the incremental cost significantly. Thus, wet/dry cooling is an economic choice over all-dry cooling where some water is available but supplies are insufficient for a totally evaporative cooling towers. On the other hand, the advantage of wet/dry cooling over evaporative towers is conservation of water consumption. Originally issued as the author's thesis (M.S.), M.I.T., Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 1978.

Log-linear models of petroleum product demand : an international study

2019-04-09T18:30:08Z

Log-linear models of petroleum product demand : an international study Heide, Ross J.

The impact of uncertainty on the effect of rate of return regulation remains highly uncertain

2019-04-12T12:55:11Z

The impact of uncertainty on the effect of rate of return regulation remains highly uncertain Vogelsang, Ingo; Neuefeind, Wilhelm

Solar energy conversion systems engineering and economic analysis. Volume II

2019-04-12T08:34:48Z

Solar energy conversion systems engineering and economic analysis. Volume II Russo, Gilberto Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management.Photovoltaics Project.

Center pivot irrigation in Nebraska : an institutional analysis case study

2019-04-15T00:41:57Z

Center pivot irrigation in Nebraska : an institutional analysis case study Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan; Landers, Stewart This paper is one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance. It reports the results of a study of institutional factors influencing acceptance of center-pivot irrigation in the Nebraska agricultural community. Center-pivot irrigation (CP) was an interesting topic for study because (1) it was a major recently introduced technological innovation in agriculture which (2) had potentially detrimental attributes--water and energy intensity. A brief historical review of the introduction and acceptance of center-pivot irrigation in the Nebraska agricultural community is presented. Institutions which were a likely part of this institutional arena relative to CP introduction and acceptance were identified. Their likely responses were hypothesized, then data collected regarding actual response. Three broad conslusions are drawn. First, there were definite, even controlling institutional influences in the acceptance of CP in the Nebraska agricultural community. Second, acceptance was facilitated in the Nebraska agricultural community because the innovation differentiation process yielded secondary attributes of CP that met prevailing social orders--productivity, automation, and felt need. Third, the innovation differentiation process for CP in the Nebraska agricultural community yielded both transformation and disconnection of detrimental attributes, creating the circumstances for attribute redefinition in the first instance and another innovation in the second instance.

The pricing of durable exhaustible resources

2019-04-12T08:34:56Z

The pricing of durable exhaustible resources Levhari, David

Solar energy conversion systems engineering and economic analysis. Volume I

2019-04-12T08:34:57Z

Solar energy conversion systems engineering and economic analysis. Volume I Russo, Gilberto After defining Solar Energy Conversion System Input characteristics, an analytical model of the atmosphere is developed. This model is capable of computing the Solar Energy Flux on the collector area for a techno-economic feasibility analysis of Solar Energy Systems. A deterministic approach permits the evaluation of the energy input to the system, at proper intervals of time, on the basis of a few meteorological data. The selective inter- action of the electromagnetic energy flux and atmospheric matter is described: the analytical model is derived and imple- mented on CIRR2 codes for the global energy flux computation; and comparison with experimental values is performed. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management. Photovoltaics Project.

An aggregate model of petroleum production capacity and supply forecasting

2019-04-09T17:42:26Z

An aggregate model of petroleum production capacity and supply forecasting Adelman, Morris Albert; Paddock, James Lester This paper presents a complete discussion and documentation of the M.I.T. World Oil Project Aggregate Supply Model. First, the theoretical development and methodology are presented. The relationships between geologic and economic characteristics are analyzed and a system of equations representing the inertial process model are derived. Next, the construction of the data is described and the data, by country segment, is presented in detail. Methods of bridging the many gaps in the data are discussed. Finally, the simulation forecasts of the model are presented through 1990. *This research has been supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DAR 78-19044. However, any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF. The work also is supported by the M.I.T. Center for Energy Policy Research. We wish to thank the following individuals for their comments on earlier drafts: P. Eckbo, H. Jacoby, R. Pindyck, J. Smith, and M. Zimmerman. Also, for research assistance and help in data analysis we thank J. Carson, W. Christian, D. McDonald, H. Owsley, G. Ward, and, in particular, A. Sterling. For editing and typing we are grateful to S. Mehta and A. Sanderson.

Sinterable powders from laser driven reactions : annual report

2019-04-12T08:34:56Z

Sinterable powders from laser driven reactions : annual report Haggerty, John S.; Cannon, W. Roger; Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Laboratory. Extremely fine, uniform ceramic powders were synthesized from laser heated gas phase reactions. Resulting Si, Si N4 and SiC powders have been characterized in terms of parameters wich are important for densification processes. They are virtually ideal. The spherical particles typically have mean diameters from 120 to 1000 A. The standard deviation is typicaliy 25-45% and the diameter of the largest observed particle is typically less than twice that of the smallest particle. Purities are extremely high. The laser heated process has been modeled in terms of fluid flow and heat transfer criteria. Many fundamental property measurements were made to provide data for these calculations. The process is extremely efficient; X 95% of the SiH4 is reacted in a single pass through the laser beam and approximately 2 kwhr. of energy are required per kilo of Si3N4.

Institutional analysis of the acceptance of photovoltaics in daytime radio broadcasting

2019-04-09T16:39:12Z

Institutional analysis of the acceptance of photovoltaics in daytime radio broadcasting Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan; Wagner, Judith This paper, one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance, is undertaken in relation to a field test of PV applicability for use by a small-scale daytime AM radio station. Hypotheses in five areas of institutional comprehension of PV as an innovation are pro- posed. The five areas are: (1) decision structure of the station; (2) technical knowledge of the decision-maker; (3) prior information about solar energy of the decision-maker; (4) image potential of the field test to the station; and (5) financial contribution of the station. In the course of data collection, a sixth area -- the PON-RFP process -- was identified. Thirty-one radio stations which met the requirements for potential test site were studied to determine the institutional factors influencing their disposition to accept PV. The findings reveal a considerable capability on the part of small, daytime radio stations to deal with technologically based information about solar energy, coupled with a strong commitment to the encouragement of its broader use. Many revealed a considerable familiarity with solar energy applications, but did not view its use in their setting as primarily contributing to their station's image. Stations had limited financial resources for participation in the project, but more importantly, were confused about the project's de- mands on these resources, because of their unfamiliarity with the PON-RFP process. This last finding is an interesting example of how money may be misused as a proxy variable, and how this misuse can be a major barrier to facilitating innovation acceptance. Photovoltaics Project.

Short-run residential demand for fuels: a disaggregated model

2019-04-12T08:34:54Z

Short-run residential demand for fuels: a disaggregated model Hartman, Raymond Steve; Werth, Alix

A generalized logit formulation of individual choice

2019-04-12T12:55:14Z

A generalized logit formulation of individual choice Hartman, Raymond S. Probability models of individual choice consist of two components: a formulation of random utility and the stochastic specification of that utility. Usually separable direct random utility is assumed. With Weibull error terms, logit analysis results. However, logit analysis suffers from the "assumed" "independence of irrelevant alternatives". It is the contention of this paper that these difficulties result from the usual restrictive utility formulation. A more general indirect random utility formulation is introduced. Estimates of the resulting generalized logit and the more restrictive logit models are presented. Hypothesis testing is reported which rejects the restrictive utility formulations which dominate the literature.

Solar heating and cooling of housing : |b five institutional analysis case studies

2019-04-15T00:41:56Z

Solar heating and cooling of housing : |b five institutional analysis case studies Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan; Furlong, Michael; McDaniel, Patricia; Parket, Barbara; Reamer, Andrew This paper is one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance. The case studies reported here involve use of solar thermal technologies in various residential settings. All of the projects are part of the DOE-HUD Solar Heating and Cooling Demonstration Program. This program provides grants to developers to prompt them to use this innovation. Each of the five cases illustrates one or more institu- tional forces which influence the acceptance of solar energy in the resi- dential sector. Friends Community is an instance of developer involvement for reasons other than profit, and the way in which other factors (such as designers and consumers) react to such housing development. Reservoir Hills Solar Houses illustrates the process of entry by new development firms, the role of public agencies in encouraging various forms of housing and the problems of using product innovations without adequately developed industry support infrastructures. Project Solar for Indiana illustrates the import- ance of supporting institutional networks, in this case the homebuilders association, the state government and key individuals, who play mediating and legitimating roles in solar acceptance. Solar in California discusses public efforts at a city level -- Santa Clara, a county level -- San Diego, and the state level in what is generally regarded as the state most active in turning to forms of solar energy. Finally, PNM/AMREP illustrates the process of large development corporation decision making, and the manner in which an investor- owned utility is shifting its orientation of energy provision.

Development and testing of three dimensional, two-fluid code THERMIT for LWR core and subchannel applications

2019-04-10T21:00:12Z

Development and testing of three dimensional, two-fluid code THERMIT for LWR core and subchannel applications Kelly, John Edward; Kazimi, Mujid S. At head of title: Energy Laboratory and Dept. of Nuclear Engineering.

A financial analysis of selected synthetic fuel technologies

2019-04-11T06:58:46Z

A financial analysis of selected synthetic fuel technologies Majd, Saman

Research design for institutional analysis of HUD's solar heating and cooling demonstration program

2019-04-11T06:58:46Z

Research design for institutional analysis of HUD's solar heating and cooling demonstration program Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan This paper is one of a series prepared under the sponsorship of DOE's Photovoltaic (PV) Program as part of the institutional analysis of housing. After an introduction describing the theory and methods of institutional analysis, the paper is organized into three sections. ABSTRACT, the first section, presents the research design used for institutional analysis of HUD's Solar Heating and Cooling Demonstration Program. It contains an hypothesized institutional arena, which describes the institutional entities in the housing arena by function and activity and then arrays them according to intensity of interaction across function. The second section of the paper describes the HUD program and describes how it serves as the perturbation prompter for institutional analysis. The third section of the paper presents the specific research design used in the study. From the first three cycles of the HUD program, 11 projects were chosen for on-site case study. A special open-ended semi-structured survey instrument was used to collect information from a set of informants identified for each project. The results of this data collection effort are reported in subsequent reports in this project.

Shale oil : potential economies of large-scale production, workshop phase

2019-04-11T06:58:44Z

Shale oil : potential economies of large-scale production, workshop phase Ball., Benjamin Calhoun; Barbera, Robert J.; Weiss, Malcolm A. A workshop on shale oil, sponsored by M.I.T., was held on June 4-5, 1979. The purpose of the workshop was to identify technological opportunities for significant reduction in the cost of producing shale oil on a large scale (at least 2 million barrels per day). Large-scale production of shale oil is of current interest as one of the alternatives for reducing imports of petroleum. The workshop participants included 11 industry and 9 M.I.T. people expert in technologies or approaches potentially applicable to shale oil. The participants reached general consensus on three major conclusions: - Large-scale production of shale oil would make possible a reduction of cost through new technological applications and innovations. There are opportunities for new technology in individual mining, retorting, and upgrading steps. Perhaps more important, there are also opportunities for combinations of technology which would make best use of various processing methods, the natural resources in place, economies of scale, the mix of products, etc. - A shale oil industry must exist and must be producing shale oil on a meaningful scale in order to develop these improved technologies most effectively. This is particularly true for those technologies whose impact is on the whole system (such as combinations of technology) rather than on individual process steps. If industry growth is not accelerated, it will be a long time before shale oil can contribute significantly to easing U.S. energy problems, and current technical, economic, and environmental uncertainties will remain uncertainties. - Creating a large-scale shale oil industry soon would require capital, human skills, and materials well beyond the capacity of one company or a small group of companies. Those needs, plus some unique characteristics of the shale land (its federal ownership, and its concentration with consequent potential for heavy local impact on population and envrionment), suggest the desirability of a new structure to manage U.S. shale resources in the common interest. That structure would include some type of joint participation by the private sector, the public, and government (federal, state, and local) to ensure getting contributions and cooperation of all affected groups, and to best meet all their needs.

Solar heating and cooling standard setting : an institutional analysis case study

2019-04-15T00:42:00Z

Solar heating and cooling standard setting : an institutional analysis case study Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan; Wagner, Judith As a companion to other studies of the standards problem for photovoltaics, this paper reports results of an institutional analysis case study of the effort to create solar thermal standards during the period 1974-78. The standards setting institutional arena is described. In the US, most standards are achieved through a voluntary consensus process; there are mandatory standards only when referenced or formally adopted by a governmental body. The justification most frequently offered for having two systems is that the voluntary consensus approach resolves primarily technical issues, while the mandatory system encompasses political questions. This study found that the solar standards development process from 1974-78 was characterized by * a horizontal rather than vertical structure; * extensive public prompting, albeit by agencies for which standards development is at best a secondary mission; * rapid acceptance of the concept of solar energy, despite continuing and considerable technical debate. It is concluded that the development of standards is a story of the interaction of self-interest, and that the failure to account for significant interests (whether technical or political) can effectively scuttle a standard development effort. For the case reported here, the process for the development of solar standards was inclusive of many interests, and, as a consequence, appeared to proceed at a rapid rate. However solar standards development is entering a second stage, with the consumer/producer debate (the "political" dimension) assuming a more central role. Photovoltaics Project

CANAL user's manual

2019-04-12T08:34:45Z

CANAL user's manual Faya, Artur José Goncalves; Wolf, Lothar; Todreas, Neil E. This report gives a detailed description of the input data and contains a listing of the computer program CANAL. A sample problem is also provided.

Coal markets and hierarchies

2019-04-15T00:41:56Z

Coal markets and hierarchies Vogelsang, Ingo In "Markets and Hierarchies" (1975) Oliver Williamson has developed a heuristic framework (Organization Failures Framework = OFF) to attack the issue of institutional borderlines between markets and firms. Below we discuss this concept and apply it to local coal markets. Differences in larger domestic and international coal markets then cast some doubts on the practical usefulness of the approach. Errata sheet inserted.

Assessment of integrated urban energy options

2019-04-11T03:45:08Z

Assessment of integrated urban energy options Pine, Gerald Dean An initial comparison is carried out for the following residential space and water heating options: electric resistance heating, electrically- driven heat pumps, distribution of condenser temperature water combined with heat pumps to extract heat at the point of use, district heating via hot water from a combined heat-electric utility energy source, and individual gas furnaces. This comparison indicates that district heating is potentially competitive with conventional technologies for new urban areas. A more detailed analysis of the district heating option is undertaken to clarify its economics. Base case urban models, economic assumptions and distribution networks are defined and a computer program is developed to select optimum pipe sizes for the networks and to calculate life cycle costs. Cost optimization is carried out by considering thermal energy production costs as well as thermal conveyance costs. Because of the large number of variables entering into the cost determination, sensitivity analyses are performed to examine the effects of variations from base case assumptions. Variations in the installed pipe cost, interest rate, maintenance costs and degree of market penetra- tion are shown to have the greatest effect on energy cost. Pumping power and heat loss are found to be relatively insignificant cost items. Proper phasing of system inplementation with urban growth is shown to be very important. Initial use of temporary heat sources located near the loads coupled with implementation of only local piping networks is advantageous for present gas and oil prices if the urban growth occurs over a period of 15-30 years. There is shown to be an economically optimum time for conversion to a large centralized thermal energy source. Several potential institutional barriers to district heating system implementation are identified. These barriers will be more difficult to overcome than any technical or economic barriers, and success in over- coming them will determine the national significance of district heating. Given positive government efforts to overcome the institutional barriers, district heating can play a major role in the U.S. Originally presented as the author's thesis, Ph.D. in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1978

Should the government subsidize non-conventional energy supplies?

2019-04-09T17:23:41Z

Should the government subsidize non-conventional energy supplies? Joskow, Paul L.; Pindyck, Robert S.

Development of a method for BWR subchannel analysis

2019-04-10T19:24:04Z

Development of a method for BWR subchannel analysis Faya, Artur José Goncalves; Wolf, Lothar; Todreas, Neil E. This study deals with the development of a computer pro- gram for steady-state and transient BWR subchannel analysis. The conservation equations for the subchannels are obtained by area-averaging of the two-fluid model conservation equa- tions and reducing them to the drift-flux model formulation. The conservation equations are solved by a marching type technique which limits the code to analysis of operational transients only. The transfer of mass, momentum and energy between adjacent subchannels is split into diversion cross- flow and turbulent mixing components. The transfer of mass by turbulent mixing is assumed to occur in a volume-for- volume scheme reflecting experimental observations. The phenomenon of lateral vapor drift and mixing enhancement with flow regime are included in the mixing model of the program. The following experiments are used for the purpose of the assessment of the code under steady-state conditions: 1) GE Nine-Rod tests with radially uniform and nonuniform heating 2) Studsvik Nine-rod tests with strong radial power tilt 3) Ispra Sixteen-rod tests with radially uniform heating Comparison of calculated results with these data shows that the program is capable of predicting the correct trends in exit mass velocity and quality distributions. Originally presented as the author's thesis, Ph.D. in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1980.

Heavy water and nonproliferation : topical report

2019-04-11T03:39:40Z

Heavy water and nonproliferation : topical report Miller, M. The following report is a study of various aspects of the relationship between heavy water and the development of the civilian and military uses of atomic energy. It begins with a historical sketch which traces the heavy water storyfrom its discovery by Harold Urey in 1932 through its coming of age from scientific curiosity to strategic nuclear material at the eve of World War II and finally into the post-war period, where the military and civilian strands have some- times seemed inextricably entangled. The report next assesses the nonproliferation implications of the use of heavy water- moderated power reactors; several different reactor types are discussed, but the focus in on the natural uranium, on- power fueled, pressure tube reactor developed in Canada, the CANDU. The need for and development of on-power fueling safe- guards is discussed in some detail. Also considered is the use of heavy water in plutonium production reactors as well as the broader issue of the relative nuclear leverage that suppliers can bring to bear on countries with natural ura- nium-fueled reactors as compared to those using enriched designs. The final chapter reviews heavy water production methods and analyzes the difficulties involved in implemen- ting these on both a large and a small scale. It concludes with an overview of proprietary and nonproliferation constraints on heavy water technology transfer. Our major conclusions are as follows: 1. On-power fueling of CANDU reactors leads to special, well recognized safeguarding problems. These have been addres- sed by a safeguards development program, encompassing both systems analysis and hardware development, jointly sponsored by Atomic Energy of Canada, Ltd. (AECL), the Canadian Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB), and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The approach involves surveillance, containment, and item-counting of irradiated fuel bundles. Although the complete system has not as yet been tested on an operating reactor, it appears to be a good example of "proliferation resistance engineering." The major problem may be the political one of obtaining agreement to incorporate the system in operating reactors and those under construction. 2. The question of relative leverage on natural uranium vs. enriched uranium fuel cycles does not have a neat answer. At the moment, most of the countries of proliferation concern have neither large amounts of uranium ore nor the ability to enrich it. (There are, of course, some significant excep- tions, the most obvious being South Africa which has both.) In the near term, the chances of achieving a consensus among current suppliers of separative work, all of whom belong to the London Club, not to supply it in the event of violations of nonproliferation agreements, also seems greater than the prospects of reaching a similar agreement among all countries who might be able to supply uranium ore. If we assume in ad- dition that the malefactor also can produce heavy water--no small matter--the potential leverage advantage would seem to lie with enriched reactors. On the other hand, the spread of enrichment technology--which is easier to rationalize on civil- ian grounds if enriched reactors are in place--could tip the scales the other way. In general, however, this weighing of enriched vs. natural uranium fuel cycles is unnecessarily restrictive. Experience has shown that there are many poten- tial levers--nuclear and non-nuclear--which can be used to persuade countries to adhere to nonproliferation norms. The heart of the matter is the political will to use these in the face of conflicting policy objectives. 3. Unlike uranium enrichment via gaseous diffusion and the gas centrifuge, key aspects of which are closely held on nonproliferation grounds, techniques for heavy water produc- tion, particularly by hydrogen sulfide-water exchange (the GS process), have been extensively documented in the open liter- ature. Nevertheless, construction and operation of large plants are difficult, and thus there is good reason to believe that the technology will not spread rapidly through the indig- enous efforts of developing countries. Unlike uranium enrich- ment and fuel reprocessing, heavy water production does not provide a direct route from civilian fuel cycle to weapons- usable materials; on these grounds a logical quid pro quo forits transfer would be adherence to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or acceptance of the principle of full-scope safeguards by the recipient.

SYSGEN : production costing and reliability model user documentation

2019-04-12T08:34:52Z

SYSGEN : production costing and reliability model user documentation Finger, Susan "Updated February 1980".

Institutional analysis of solar heating and cooling of housing : summary report

2019-04-15T00:41:59Z

Institutional analysis of solar heating and cooling of housing : summary report Nutt-Powell, Thomas E. This paper is one of a series resulting from institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance. It is the summary report on a study of several residential projects which are part of the DOE-HUD Solar Heating and Cooling Demonstration Program. Other papers in this series look in detail at aspects of the residential institutional arena, and more fully present the cases. The study of solar thermal applications in housing provides useful guidance in structuring programs for PV acceptance in the residential sector. The five cases illustrate one or more institutional forces which influence the acceptance of solar energy in housing. The cases involve residential developments of various sorts, located in Massachusetts, Maryland, Indiana, New Mexico and California. It is determined that each actor in the residential sector has different, and complex motivations for considering, using and continuing to use an innovation such as solar energy. The choices of any given actor are a function of the type, source, density and continuity of information exchanges found within the institutional arena in which he/she operates. Finally, the probability of rate and extent of innovation acceptance will be increased to the degree that the innovation is made comprehensible. Photovoltaics Project

Comments on proposed rulemaking concerning electric rates for solar users

2019-04-09T18:34:50Z

Comments on proposed rulemaking concerning electric rates for solar users Bottaro, Drew Energy Laboratory Utility Systems Program.

Simulation analysis of energy production in the B. C. pulp and paper industry

2019-04-11T03:46:17Z

Simulation analysis of energy production in the B. C. pulp and paper industry Helliwell, John F.; Cox, Alan J. ABSTRACT This paper describes a dynamic simulation model of energy production and use by pulp and paper mills. The model can be used to assess the costs and benefits of the use of different proportions of wood waste (referred to as 'hog fuel') and fossil fuels to generate process steam and electricity, with the costs and benefits measured from several points of view, principally those of the mill management and of the economy as a whole. Using either point of view, the model has been fitted to the eighteen major pulp and paper mills in British Columbia, and used to assess the consequences of the size and nature of optimal hog fuel projects. Some results are reported in this paper and references are given to other papers containing more complete results of various aspects of the research project. INTRODUCTION Whenever there are big changes in technology or relative prices, many of the standard rules of thumb for optimal choices fall apart, and many new alternatives have to be considered in a systematic way. This offers great scope for the design and use of simulation models that capture the key elements of an industrial process and expose the key alternatives for This paper was presented to the conference on Simulation Modelling and Decision in Energy Systems, held in Montreal in June, 1978 and sponsored by the International Association of Science and Technology for Development. It represents early results of work also reported in [1], [2], [3] and [4]. While Helliwell is a continuing member of U.B.C.'s Department of Economics, Cox is currently at M.I.T.'s Energy Laboratory Cambridge, Mass.

Peat as a fuel at the proposed Central Maine Power Company 600 mw plant

2019-04-11T09:50:13Z

Peat as a fuel at the proposed Central Maine Power Company 600 mw plant Jones, William J.

A water rights transfer evaluation procedure with applications for western energy development

2019-04-11T09:50:15Z

A water rights transfer evaluation procedure with applications for western energy development Gerstle, John Herman; Marks, David H. This report deals with questions of water supply for coal deve- lopment in the semiarid western United States. A method is developed to evaluate yields of water rights in "appropriation" or "permit" systems of water administration. Water rights are characterized in terms of location, priority, decreed maximum diversion, actual diver- sion in periods of low flow, and consumptive use. Transfers of water rights are evaluated in this method by using institutional procedures as a framework for analysis. A case study is performed on the North Fork of the Powder River, Wyoming, in which institutional considera- tions are discussed, and water rights are evaluated for a hypothetical facility. This procedure is not limited to energy facilities, but may be used in most cases of water rights trasnfers. The method is designed for use with easily obtained data in order to facilitate its use in practice.

Social cost factors and the development of photovoltaic energy systems

2019-04-10T07:33:12Z

Social cost factors and the development of photovoltaic energy systems Neff, Thomas L. This report presents the results of a social cost evaluation of three prospective photovoltaic electricity supply technologies. The technologies-based on cadmium sulfide, silicon, and gallium arsenide--are compared with each other and with coal in three categories of direct social impacts: occupational and public health and environmental effects. Indirect impacts, due to opportunity costs and benefits, or to health or other effects of use of material, labor or energy itself, are also considered. Special attention is given to regulatory issues that will arise in connection with these social costs and to their potential importance to government programs and commercial development. Prepared for the United States Dept. of Energy.

The economics of water lifting for small scale irrigation in the third world: traditional and photovoltaic technologies

2019-04-11T09:50:15Z

The economics of water lifting for small scale irrigation in the third world: traditional and photovoltaic technologies Tabors, Richard D. Much of the non-traditional, irrigated, agricultural land in developing nations utilizes pumping technologies which have been adapted from the developed nations. These technologies are adaptable to the medium and large scale farms (individual farms in excess of 2 hectares) but are not adaptable to smaller farms. It has been these larger third world farmers who have been able to take the fullest advantage of the benefits of new seed varieties in wheat and rice combined with fertilizer and water, the ingredients of the "green revolution." This short paper summarizes the experience to date of developing water pumping systems for small farms in selected deltaic areas of the 'third world,' those areas in which irrigation water is available at depths between 1.5 and 4.5 meters (m). These areas include the Nile, Euphrates, Indus, Ganges, Irrawaddy, and Mekong River Basins which combined encompass 50 million hectares of the earth's surface (less than one percent of the earth's land area) and contain roughly 250 million people (nearly 7 percent of the world's population). The analyses evaluate water supplied by traditional means--human and animal--by conventional systems--diesel, gasoline and electric--and by renewable resource systems, in particular photovoltaic powered systems. A review of previous studies indicate that the value of water for irrigation is in the range of two to three cents (U.S.) per cubic meter (m3). The methods of lifting water, available to farmers on land areas of one hectare or less, provide water at costs in excess of this two to three cents (U.S.) per m3. Investigations of the Shadoof systems of North Africa and Asia show costs of water as high as seven cents (U.S.) per cubic meter. An evaluation of animal power used to operate a Persian wheel resulted with water costs that varied with the amount of feed required by the animal from 1 to 4/m3. Four pumping systems were investigated using conventional power systems: two diesel, one gasoline, and one electric. Since pumping systems have relatively fixed sizes and prices, the costs generally exceed the benefits for the small farmer. The cost per cubic meter for irrigating one hectare averaged: 3.5¢ (U.S.) for diesel in Chad; 4.0¢ (U.S.) for gasoline in Chad; 3.5Q (U.S.) for diesel in India; and 3.0t (U.S.) for electricity in India. In each of these instances, the cost of supplying small scale farmers with water using conventional systems was greater than the economic value of the water supplied. A fifth pumping system investigated herein utilized a high technology power system, photovoltaic cells combined with efficient electric motor and pump devices. The cost of providing water utilizing the photovoltaic power system resulted in costs of 2.8t/m3 (U.S.) to lift the water 1.5m and 5.44/m3 (U.S.) for lifting heads of 4.5m, at today's cell prices ($10/Wp). If photovoltaic power system costs are reduced to $4.00 per peak watt (Wp), the cost of irrigation water for a lift of 1.5m would be 1.2¢/m3, and for a lift of 4.5m would be 2.3*/m3. Previously issued as MIT Energy Laboratory Working paper # MIT-EL-78-015wp, August 1978.

Frontiers in energy demand modeling

2019-04-12T08:38:00Z

Frontiers in energy demand modeling Hartman, Raymond Steve

A condensed review of nuclear reactor thermal-hydraulic computer codes for two-phase flow analysis

2019-04-12T08:38:23Z

A condensed review of nuclear reactor thermal-hydraulic computer codes for two-phase flow analysis Kazimi, Mujid S.; Massoud, Mahmoud A review is made of the computer codes developed in the U.S. for thermal-hydraulic analysis of nuclear reactors. The intention of this review is to compare these codes on the basis of their numerical method and physical models with particular attention to the two-phase flow and heat transfer characteristics. A chronology of the most documented codes such as COBRA and RELAP is given. The features of the recent codes as RETRAN, TRAC and THERMIT are also reviewed. The range of application as well as limitations of the various codes are discussed.

Alternative electric generation impact simulator : aegis, description and examples

2019-04-11T03:41:39Z

Alternative electric generation impact simulator : aegis, description and examples Gruhl, James This simulator should be viewed as a framework for assembling and manipulating information about the economics, emissions, ambient concentrations, and potential health impacts of different types and configurations of electric power generating facilities. The framework is probabilistic, and thus results in several measures of the range of various consequences, in other words, a graphic display of the quality of the various predictions. The current version of the model is to be considered a testing version, as there are certain approximations implicit in some of the manipulations, scaling procedures, and the data base is incomplete in portions. As a result of additional fundings, the data base should be at the state of the art by September 1979 and additional refinements to various manipulations, in particular the economic and dispersions, should be completed by June 1980. There are, nevertheless, a tremendous number of useful exercises that can be performed on the current model version. In addition, the simulator is structured so that it is easy to improve the sophistication of certain manipulations, or to replace generic data, or update or add new data. Versions of the simulator are available so that it can be operated in batch or interactive modes.

Standards, warranties and commercialization of new energy technologies

2019-04-09T16:34:39Z

Standards, warranties and commercialization of new energy technologies Bottaro, Drew Several federal energy programs aim to "commercialize" new energy tech- nologies, i.e., to bring them from research to the market. Product standards and warranties are sometimes a part of these programs. Yet the benefits which the standards and warranties are to achieve are rarely articulated, and how these benefits will be achieved is often even less clear. This article takes the view that the substantive goals of standards and warranties can be articulated. It examines the functions of standards and warranties and the processes which produce them, and casts their effects in terms of impacts upon the new technology's demand, supply and industrial market structure. The relevance of these impacts upon commercialization programs is then discussed, covering the role of standards in the new in- dustry's development, the need for standards and warranties in demonstration projects and in the private financing of new energy systems, and mechanisms for development of standards and warranties. The need for basic research on standards and warranties is then addressed. Photovoltaics Project

ELECTRA : Time dependent power generation operation model user documentation

2019-04-11T09:50:19Z

ELECTRA : Time dependent power generation operation model user documentation Finger, Susan Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Energy Laboratory in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning,1979.

Funding criteria for research, development, and exploration projects

2019-04-12T08:38:23Z

Funding criteria for research, development, and exploration projects Roberts, Kevin W. S.; Weitzman, Martin Lawrence The sequential nature of activities like research, development, or exploration requires optimal funding criteria to take account of the fact that subsequent funding decisions will be made throughout the future. Thus, there is a continual possibility of reviewing a project's status, based on the latest information. After setting up a model to capture this feature, optimal funding criteria are investigated. In an important special case, an explicit formula is derived. As well as throwing light upon the nature of development activities, the analysis is also relevant to the general theory of information gathering processes.

Study of New England utilities' particulate air pollution control facilities to determine relative viability of approaches to upgrade and retrofit

2019-04-11T09:50:18Z

Study of New England utilities' particulate air pollution control facilities to determine relative viability of approaches to upgrade and retrofit Melcher, James R.; Zieve, Peter Brian

Institutional analysis of the National Park Service : |b a preliminary exploration

2019-04-12T08:38:02Z

Institutional analysis of the National Park Service : |b a preliminary exploration Siczewicz, Peter John; Nutt-Powell, Thomas Evan This paper is one of a series resulting from the institutional analysis of photovoltaic (PV) acceptance. It reports the results of an initial exploration of the federal non-defense arena. This exploration was undertaken in connection with a PV field test at the Natural Bridges National Monument in Utah. This field test is a collaborative venture of the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Park Service (NPS). As the procuring agency, NPS is the focus for the paper, serving as an example of institutional action in the federal non-defense arena. Like others in this arena, NPS is involved in the legislative process, as well as program implementati;on. The primary mission of the National Park Service is to make federally-owned land available to the public in a manner which enhances the use and enjoyment ;.of natural and historic resource. NPS has nearly 300 operating units. It is organized by regions, and has two service centers (the larger of which is in Denver) which provide a variety of technical and support services to the operating units. The most important operating units are national parks, monuments and historic sites. Procurements contributing to program activities are guided by federal and agency regulation. One regulation limits procurements to proven technologies, which constitutes a formal barrier to innovation acceptance.

Sensitivity analysis of the reactor safety study

2019-04-12T08:38:25Z

Sensitivity analysis of the reactor safety study Parkinson, William; Rasmussen, Norman C.; Hinkle, William D. The Reactor Safety Study (RSS) or Wash-1400 developed a methodology estimating the public risk from light water nuclear reactors. In order to give further insights into this study, a sensitivity analysis has been performed to determine the significant contributors to risk for both the PWR and BWR. The sensitivity to variation of the point values of the failure probabilities reported in the RSS was determined for the safety systems identified therein, as well as for many of the generic classes from which individual failures contributed to system failures. Increasing as well as decreasing point values were considered. An analysis of the sensitivity to increasing uncertainty in system failure probabilities was also performed. The sensitivity parameters chosen were release category prob- abilities, core melt probability, and the risk parameters of early fatalities, latent cancers and total property damage. The latter three are adequate for describing all public risks identified in the RSS. The results indicate reductions of public risk by less than a factor of two for factor reductions in system or generic failure probabilities as hignh as one hundred. There also appears to be more benefit in monitoring the most sensitive systems to verify adherence to RSS failure rates than to backfitting present reactors. The sensitivity analysis results do indicate, however, possible benefits in reducing human error rates. Originally presented as the first author's thesis, (M.S.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1979.

Equilibrium patterns of competition in OCS lease sales

2019-04-11T09:50:22Z

Equilibrium patterns of competition in OCS lease sales Smith, James Lee An equilibrium model of bidding behavior is developed that accounts for observed fluctuations in the degree of competition to acquire offshore petroleum leases. As one might expect, such fluctuations are related to the heterogeneity of geological prospects that are offered for sale, with a relatively high degree of competition to acquire tracts of the highest quality. The equilibrium configuration of bids is also shown to reflect structural characteristics, such as capital market constraints, that may restrict competition in the lease auction. Empirical evidence is presented which tends to confirm our general theory of bidding equilibria, but which contradicts the popular notion that capital constraints have restricted competition in OCS lease sales. Policy implications are discussed in the concluding section.

A photovoltaic assisted residence with supplemental battery storage : searching for a complementarity

2019-04-12T08:38:00Z

A photovoltaic assisted residence with supplemental battery storage : searching for a complementarity Dinwoodie, Thomas Linn A significant mismatch may exist between residential load characteristics and array output from photovoltaic energy conversion systems. This has warranted a closer look at incorporating energy storage as a supplement device. Storage enhances total system energy capture although its weighted benefit is highly sensitive to the particular operating scheme. For utility interfaced systems which include a schedule for utility purchase of excess PV output, the advantage of the additional capture becomes a fairly complex function of the rated price structure, utility buy-back, and the system control logic. The problem arises since photovoltaics and storage each stand as independent investment opportunities for grid interconnected users, thus offering the potential for competition between them. This competition is characterized by a total system value somewhere below their additive stand-alone values. This study includes a search for a system control logic, along with the economic and location-specific conditions, which maximize total system (PV and storage) value. The latter is defined in terms of the breakeven capital costs at which a user-owner would be economically indifferent toward purchase, given the utility as the sole competitor. Numerous customer-utility relationships are possible in addition to a variety of system configurations. Here, a utility interfaced storage operation without photovoltaics is examined against a tandem (PV-battery) arrangement with a range of utility buy-back policies. No studies were made to assess the value of only photovoltaics or only storage to the utility, though analysis on photovoltaics can be found in both Tatum (8) and Carpenter and Taylor (3). The residence hardware and behavioral simulation were accomplished with the use of models previously developed by members of the MIT Energy Laboratory.

SunDay: a second application of a simultaneous preference reporting methodology

2019-04-11T09:50:17Z

SunDay: a second application of a simultaneous preference reporting methodology Sorrell, Levi; Nutt-Powell, Bonnie R. This paper, the second of three publications reporting on a Simultaneous Preference Reporting Methodology (SPRM), describes the collection of data on SunDay in May 1978. Respondents were drawn from among public visitors to SunDay activities on the Boston Common. The authors find among this presumably sophisticated and knowledgeable respondent group that photovoltaic (PV) solar energy is an undifferentiated innovation, that i PV is too new for a broad sample of the public to comprehend and thus to make distinctions about the technology or its application. However, as in a previous application, the Simultaneous Preference Reporting Methodology appears to be an effective technique for collecting data on public preferences.

Productivity measurement using capital asset valuation to adjust for variations in utilization

2019-04-10T20:42:04Z

Productivity measurement using capital asset valuation to adjust for variations in utilization Berndt, Ernst R.; Fuss, Melvyn A. Although a great deal of empirical research on productivity measurement has taken place in the last decade, one issue remaining particularly controversial and decisive is the manner by which one adjusts the productivity residual for variations in capital and capacity utilization. In this paper we use the Marshallian framework of a short run production or cost function with certain inputs quasi-fixed to provide a theoretical basis for accounting for variations in utilization. The theoretical model implies that the value of services from stocks of quasi-fixed inputs should be altered rather than their quantity. This represents a departure from previous procedures that have adjusted the quantity of capital services for variations in utilization. In the empirical illustration, we employ Tobin's q to measure the shadow value of capital, and find that for the U.S. manufacturing sector, we can attribute 25% of the traditionally measured decline in productivity growth during 1973-77 to a decline in capacity utilization. Also released as Working Paper No. 8125, Institute for Policy Analysis, University of Toronto. *An earlier version was presented at the econometric Society Summer Meetings, San Diego, California, June 24-27, 1981.

New electric utility management and control systems : proceedings of conference, held in Boxborough, Massachusetts, May 30-June 1, 1979

2019-04-09T18:42:18Z

New electric utility management and control systems : proceedings of conference, held in Boxborough, Massachusetts, May 30-June 1, 1979 MIT Energy Laboratory; MIT Homeostatic Control Study Group

The availability of capital for developing photovoltaic markets

2019-04-12T08:38:24Z

The availability of capital for developing photovoltaic markets Ellis, Phillip Allen Capital availability is not a problem in a well-functioning market. However, the market for photovoltaic cells is immature; in fact, the market for grid-connected photovoltaic applications (the primary concern of this study) does not yet exist. Therefore, the capital markets cannot easily evaluate the credit-worthiness, the economic attractiveness of the variety of photovoltaic production processes, research programs, or end-use applications currently being developed. Only when photovoltaic technologies converge to a roughly standardized set of mass production methods and consumer applications will private capital markets perform their job of allocating financial resources to the photovoltaic industry. Until then, investigations into the question of capital availability for this industry must focus on firm-by-firm "case" studies. This paper examines capital availability for both the production and consumption sides of this young industry. The experiences of photovoltaic producers in obtaining and allocating capital are described for three groups: oil company photovoltaic subsidiaries, electronic firm subsidiaries, and independent producers. This discussion is based on telephone and personal interviews with officials of the companies described. The capital availability problems of solar thermal consumers provide a basis for anticipating such problems for future photovoltaic grid-connected consumers. This basis is used to project the probable behavior of capital markets once mass production is economically feasible. Recent Congressional hearings on the creation of a Solar Energy Development Bank provide the primary backdrop for this discussion. It is concluded that given no change in federal programs to support photovoltaic production and/or consumption, only "large," capital-rich firms will enter the mass-production of photovoltaic cells. Small independents can survive only if they are proficient in serving the specialty, or systems, photovoltaic market. Large firms not currently active in the photovoltaic industry will enter production through acquisition or accelerated research programs once the mass-production market develops and the profit potential is recognized. Finally, consumers will have difficulty in locating financing for their photovoltaic purchases for some time after the mass market opens up. Recommendations include (a) no government subsidies until private industry defines the best photovoltaics technology, and (b) creation of a Solar Energy Development Bank after mass markets develop to dissolve the reluctance of financial intermediaries to lend. Photovoltaics Project

Electric power system production costing and reliability analysis including hydroelectric, storage, and time dependent power plants

2019-04-11T09:50:21Z

Electric power system production costing and reliability analysis including hydroelectric, storage, and time dependent power plants Finger, Susan

Near field performance of staged diffusers in shallow water

2019-04-11T09:50:16Z

Near field performance of staged diffusers in shallow water Adams, E. Eric; Trowbridge, John Howard Submerged diffusers are commonly used to dilute condenser cooling water from coastal power plants. A staged diffuser, in which the diffuser centerline is perpendicular to shore and the nozzles are direc- ted essentially offshore, is often used at sites where there is a long- shore, reversing current. Because of the symmetry of this design, dilution is improved by a longshore current in either direction, and the diffuser's position perpendicular to shore allows it to intercept a crossflow effectively. The performance of a staged diffuser in shallow water of constant depth has been analysed previously by treating the diffuser as a continuously distributed line source of momentum (Almquist and Stolzen- bach, 1976). This theory has been reviewed and extended to consider the case of a sloping bottom and to compute the external (entrainment) flow field set up by the diffuser. In these analyses the important parameters are the gross diffuser dimensions, including total flow rate, discharge velocity, water depth and diffuser length. Length scales are on the order of one diffuser length, and the characteristics of the individual jets are assumed to be insignificant in describing diffuser performance at this level. A more detailed analysis of staged diffuser performance in the near field is useful if one wishes to describe the temperatures and shear stresses experienced by organisms that are entrained into the diffuser plume. Length scales in this problem are on the order of the port spacing, and characteristics of the individual jets are very important at this level. Relevant diffuser dimensions are discharge velocity, port diameter D , port spacing, port elevation h, water depth H, and discharge orientation. A description of the near field at this level has been obtained by solving for the trajectories, velocities, temperatures and flow rates of individual jets. Boundary layer approximations are made similar to those used in the classical analysis of free turbulent jets, and the analysis includes the effects of shallow water, the flowfield set up by adjacent jets, and an ambient current. Theoretical predictions are compared with the results of an experimental program. The analysis is then used to evaluate different diffuser designs from the stand- point of temperature and shear stress exposure of entrained organisms. This work was performed by John H. Trowbridge as part of his masters thesis in the M.I.T. Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1979.

Detection of geologic anomalies by grid line search

2019-04-09T17:18:56Z

Detection of geologic anomalies by grid line search Barouch, Eytan; Kaufman, Gordon Mayer

Nuclear fuel assurance : origins, trends, and policy issues

2019-04-12T08:38:03Z

Nuclear fuel assurance : origins, trends, and policy issues Neff, Thomas L.; Jacoby, Henry D. The economic, technical and political issues which bear on the security of nuclear fuel supply interna- tionally are addressed. The structure of international markets for nuclear fuel is delineated; this includes an analysis of the political constraints on fuel availability, especially the connection to supplier nonproliferation policies. The historical development of nuclear fuel assurance problems is explored and and assessment is made of future trends in supply and demand and in the political context in which fuel trade will take place in the future. Finally, key events and policies which will affect future assurance are identified.

The consumer response to photovoltaics: the MIT Sun Day experience

2019-04-10T19:37:04Z

The consumer response to photovoltaics: the MIT Sun Day experience Lilien, Gary Louis; McCormick, S. Thomas This paper reports on the results of the MIT Energy Laboratory Sun Day PV study. This study continued our assessment of likely market response to photovoltaics. The Sun Day exhibit attracted a high proportion of solar inno- vators. The study determined that the key issues relating to PV preference are - economical and ecological soundness - complexity of the system and - secondary benefits. A key result is that this population is much more receptive to PV than were populations previously studied, but we were not able to identify external characteristics associated with that innovativeness.

Evaluation of health effects of air pollution in the Chestnut Ridge area : preliminary analysis

2019-04-11T09:50:14Z

Evaluation of health effects of air pollution in the Chestnut Ridge area : preliminary analysis Gruhl, Jim; Schweppe, F. C.; Maher, W. F.; Speizer, F. E.; Schenker, M. B.; Samet, J. This project involves several tasks designed to take advantage of (1) a very extensive air pollution monitoring system that is operating ..n the Chestnut Ridge.region of Western Pennsylvania and (2) -the very well developed analytic dispersion models that have been previously fine-tuned to this particular area.. The major task in this project is to establish, through several distinct epidemiolopic approaches, health data to be used to test hypotheses about relations of air pollution exposures to morbidity and mortality rates in this region. Because the air quality monitoring network involves no expense to this contract this project affords a very cost-effective 6pportunity-for state-of-the-art techniques to be used in both costly areas of air pollution and health -effects data col1 ection. . The closely spaced network of monitors, plus the dispersion modeling capabilities,.allow for the investigation- of health impacts of. various pollutant gradients in neighboring geographic areas, thus minimizing -the confounding effects of social, ethnic, and economic factors. The pollutants that are monitored in this network include total gaseous sulfur, sulfates, total suspended particulates, NOx, NO, ozone/oxidants, and coefficient of haze. In addition to enabling the simulation of exposure profiles between monitors, the air quality2 modeling, along with extensive source and background inventories, will allow for upgrading the quality of the monitored data. as well as simulating the exposure levels for about 25 additional air pollutants. Another important goal of this project is to collect and test the many available models for associating.health effects with air pollution, to determine their predictive validity and their usefulness in the choice and siting of future energy facilities.

Steam bubble collapse, water hammer and piping network response

2019-04-12T08:38:01Z

Steam bubble collapse, water hammer and piping network response Gruel, R.; Hurwitz, W.; Huber, P.; Griffith, P.

Industrial response to spot electricity prices: some empirical evidence

2019-04-11T09:50:11Z

Industrial response to spot electricity prices: some empirical evidence Bohn, Roger E. Time of day prices for electricity are usually preferable to constant rates, as the true cost of generating energy varies over the course of a day. But time of day rates are still inefficient, because prices do not change in step with day by day random fluctuations in actual generating costs. Spot prices, which change every five minutes, can avoid this inefficiency by tracking actual marginal cost. This paper empirically estimates the ability of industrial customers to respond to rapidly varying prices. The conclusion is that some customers will be able to react quickly to such prices. Because the estimates were made from a rate structure which is not a full spot pricing system, the magnitude of customer response remains problematic. Also, it appears that the utility in questions could make a minor change to its rate structure which would help both it and its customers.

A note on the use of aggregate data in individual choice models : discrete consumer choice among alternative fuels for residential appliances

2019-04-11T09:50:20Z

A note on the use of aggregate data in individual choice models : discrete consumer choice among alternative fuels for residential appliances Hartman, Raymond Steve

Analysis of the world oil market

2019-04-11T09:50:23Z

Analysis of the world oil market Jacoby, Henry D.

An analysis of Department of Energy residential appliance efficiency standards

2019-04-10T16:53:25Z

An analysis of Department of Energy residential appliance efficiency standards Hartman, Raymond Steve

Qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis of safety systems

2019-04-12T08:38:01Z

Qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis of safety systems Karimi, Roohollah A code has been developed for the comprehensive analysis of a fault tree.' The code designated UNRAC (UNReliability Analysis Code) calculates the following characteristics of an Tnput fauTt tree: a) minimal cut sets, b) top event unavailability as point estimate and/or in time dependent form, c) quantitative importance of each component involved, and d) error bound on the top event unavailability UNRAC can analyze fault trees, with any kind of gates (EOR, NAND, NOR, AND, OR), up to a maximum of 250 components and/or gates. For generating minimal cut sets the method of bit manipu- lation is employed. In order to calculate each component's time dependent unavailability, a general and consistent set of mathematical models is developed and the repair time density function is allowed to be represented by constant, exponen- tial, 2nd order erlangian and log-normal distributions. A normally operating component is represented by a three-state model in order to be able to incorporate probabilities for revealed faults, non-revealed faults and false failures in unavailability calculations. For importance analysis, a routine is developed that will rearrange the fault tree to evaluate the importance of each component to system failure, given that a component and/or a sub-system is unavailable (ie. down or failed). The impor- tance of each component can be evaluated based on the instan- taneous or average unavailabilities of each components. To simulate the distribution of top event uncertainty, a Monte- Carlo sampling routine is used. This method allows the user to input uncertainties on the component's failure characteri- stics (ie. failure rate, average test time, average repair time, etc.) and assign different distributions for subsequent simulation. The code is benchmarked against WAMCUT, MODCUT, KITT, BIT-FRANTIC and PL-MODT. The results showed that UNRAC pro- duces results more consistent with the KITT results than either BIT-FRANTIC or PL-MODT. Overall it is demonstrated that UNRAC is an efficient and easy to use code and has the advantage of being able to do a complete fault tree analysis with this single code.

The incorporation of solar photovoltaics into a model of residential energy demand

2019-04-09T18:06:57Z

The incorporation of solar photovoltaics into a model of residential energy demand Hartman, Raymond S.

An evaluation of tight-pitch PWR cores

2019-04-10T09:58:55Z

An evaluation of tight-pitch PWR cores Correa, Francisco; Driscoll, Michael J.; Lanning, David D. The impact of tight pitch cores on the consumption of natural uranium ore has been evaluated for two systems of coupled PWR's namely one particular type of thorium system-U-235/U02: Pu/Th02: U-233/ThO2--and the conventional recycle-mode uranium system- U-235/U02: Pu/UO . The basic parameter varied was the fuel-to-moderator volume ratio (F/M) o the (uniform) lattice for the last core in each sequence. Although methods and data verification in the range of present interest, 0.5 (current lattices)< F/M < 4.0 are limited by the scarcity of experiments with F/M > l.0,the EPRI-LEOPARD and LASER programs used for the thorium and uranium calculations, respectively, were successfully benchmarked against several of the more pertinent experiments. It was found that by increasing F/M to "3 the uranium ore usage for the uranium system can be decreased by as much as 60% compared to the same system with conventional recycle (at F/M 0.5). Equivalent savings for the thorium system of the type examined here are much smaller (10%) because of the poor performance of the intermediate Pu/ThO2 core--which is not substantially improved by increasing F/M. Although fuel cycle costs (calculated at the indifference value of bred fissile species) are rather insensitive to the characteristics of the tight pitch cores, system energy production costs do not favor the low discharge burnups which might other- wise allow even greater ore savings (80%). Temperature and void coefficients of reactivity for the tight pitch cores were calculated to be negative. Means for implementing tight lattice use were investigated, such as the use of stainless steel clad in place of zircaloy; and alternatives achieving the same objective were briefly examined, such as the use of D20/H20 mixtures as coolant. Major items identified requiring further work are system redesign to accommodate higher core pressure drop, and transient and accident thermal-hydraulics. Originally presented as the author's thesis, Ph.D. in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1979.

Numerical modeling of buoyant plumes in a turbulent, stratified atmosphere

2019-04-12T08:06:32Z

Numerical modeling of buoyant plumes in a turbulent, stratified atmosphere Bennett, Ralph Gregory; Golay, Michael Warren A widely applicable computational model of buoyant, bent-over plumes in realistic atmospheres is constructed. To do this, the two-dimensional, time-dependent fluid mechanics equations are numerically integrated, while a number of important physical approximations serve to keep the approach at a tractable level. A three-dimensional picture of a steady state plume is constructed from a se- quence of time-dependent, two-dimensional plume cross sec- tions--each cross section of the sequence is spaced pro- gressively further downwind as it is advected for a pro- gressively longer time by the prevailing wind. The dyna- mics of the plume simulations are quite general. The buoyancy sources in the plume include the sensible heat in the plume, the latent heat absorbed or released in plume moisture processes, and the heating of the plume by a radioactive pollutant in the plume. The atmospheric state in the simulations is also quite general. Atmospheric variables are allowed to be functions of height, and the ambient atmospheric turbulence (also a function of height) is included in the simulations. A demonstration of the ability of the model to repro- duce the solutions to problems that are known is under- taken. Comparisons to buoyant line-thermal laboratory experiments show that the model calculates the dynamics of the fluid motions to an acceptable accuracy. Comparisons to atmospheric plume rise and dispersion experiments show that the model can simulate individual plumes more accur- ately than existing correlations because it calculates the effect of the atmospheric turbulence and stratification from first-principles. The comparisons also show that improvements to the model are likely to be made by more accurately describing the anisotropic nature of atmospheric turbulence, and the production of turbulence by the sources of buoyancy.

Radioactivity releases to the environment by nuclear plants : locally and for the total fuel cycle

2019-04-10T09:58:45Z

Radioactivity releases to the environment by nuclear plants : locally and for the total fuel cycle Marlay, Robert Charles The nuclear fuel cycle is categorized into nine components. Each component is described with respect to its operations and radioactive effluent streams. Engineering estimates of radioactive releases to the environment are summarized for each component from the 1976 report of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission entitled, "Final Generic Environmental Statement on the Use of Recycle Plutonium in Mixed Oxide Fuel and Light Water Cooled Reactors." Actual radioactivity release data reported semi- annually by licensed facilities in the U.S., plus actual release data found in the literature for Canadian and European facilities, are summarized to the extent that data are available for the years 1970 through 1976. These actual data are compared with the engineer- ing estimates of the NRC. Particular emphasis is given to a comparison of reactor types, including: pressurized water reactors, boiling water reactors, high temperature gas cooled reactors, European gas cooled reactors and several types of heavy water cooled and/or moderated reactors. Figures showing relative magnitudes of releases for the different reactor types and trends versus time are drawn. Estimates of world population exposures for each fuel cycle component are calculated for the actual release data from information provided for the estimated release data. Similarly, total radiological health effects resulting from the production of one giga-watt- year of power for the various nuclear fuel cycles are estimated. Lastly, a comparison is made of these health effects to the radiological health effects of the fossil fuel cycles of natural gas, oil and coal. No attempt is made to characterize the non-radiological health effects of any fuel cycle.

Users' guide for numerical modeling of buoyant plumes in a turbulent, stratified atmosphere

2019-04-12T08:35:42Z

Users' guide for numerical modeling of buoyant plumes in a turbulent, stratified atmosphere Bennett, Ralph Gregory; Golay, Michael Warren A widely applicable computational model of buoyant, bent- over plumes in realistic atmospheres is constructed. To do this, the two-dimensional, time-dependent fluid mechanics equations are numerically integrated, while a number of important physical ap- proximations serve to keep the approach at a tractable level. A three-dimensional picture of a steady state plume is constructed from a sequence of time-dependent, two-dimensional plume cross sections--each cross section of the sequence is spaced progres- sively further downwind as it is advected for a progressively longer time by the prevailing wind. The dynamics of the plume simulations are quite general. The buoyancy sources in the plume include the sensible heat in the plume, the latent heat absorbed or released in plume moisture processes, and the heating of the plume by a radioactive pollutant in the plume. The atmospheric state in the simulations is also quite general. Atmospheric var- iables are allowed to be functions of height, and the ambient atmospheric turbulence (also a function of height) is included in the simulations.

The fuel cycle economics of improved uranium utilization in light water reactors

2019-04-12T08:35:42Z

The fuel cycle economics of improved uranium utilization in light water reactors Abbaspour, Ali Tehrani; Driscoll, Michael J. A simple fuel cycle cost model has been formulated, tested satisfactorily (within better than 3% for a wide range of cases) using a more elaborate computer program, and applied to evaluate a variety of PWR fuel cyclesand fuel management options, with an emphasis on issues pertinent to the NASAP/INFCE efforts. The uranium and thorium cycles were examined, lattice fuel-to-moderator and burnup were varied, and once-through and recycle modes were examined. It was found that increasing core burnup was economically advantageous, particularly if busbar or total system cost is considered in lieu of fuel cycle cost only, for both once-through and recycle modes, so long as the number of staggered core batches is increased concurrently. When optimized under comparable ground rules, the once-through fuel cycle is competitive with the recycle option; differences are well within the rather large (+ 20%) one sigma uncertainty estimated for the overall fuel cycle costs by propagating uncertainties in input data. Optimization on mills/kwhre and ore usage, tones/GWe,yr, are generally, but not universally, compatible criteria. To the extent evaluated, the thorium fuel cycle was not found to be economically competitive. Cost-optimum thorium lattices were found to be drier than for current PWRs, while cost-optimum uranium lattices are essentially those in use today. The cost margin of zircaloy over stainless steel decreases as lattice pitch is decreased, to the point where steel clad could be useful in very dry cores where its superior properties might be advantageous. Increasing the scarcity-related escalation rate of ore price, or the absolute cost of ore, does not alter any of the major conclusions although the prospects for thorium and recycle cores improve somewhat. Originally presented as the first author's thesis, (Nuclear Engineer) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1979.Nuclear Engineering Department report ; no. MITNE-224

Predicting the time rate of supply from a petroleum play

2019-04-09T16:58:09Z

Predicting the time rate of supply from a petroleum play Kaufman, Gordon Mayer; Runggaldier, W.; Livne, Zvi A.

Distribution channels for residential photovoltaic systems

2019-04-10T09:58:56Z

Distribution channels for residential photovoltaic systems Wheatley, Nancy J.

Non-aggressive bidding behavior and the "winner's curse"

2019-04-10T09:58:45Z

Non-aggressive bidding behavior and the "winner's curse" Smith, James Lee Previous authors have noted a curious result that arises in the context of sealed-bid auctions: in certain situations it is in the bidder's interest to respond non-aggressively to increased competition. We consider a decision-theoretic formulation of the bidder's problem, and derive necessary conditions for the choice of a non-aggressive bidding strategy. The resulting conditions relate closely to a phenomenon that has been described rather loosely by bidding practitioners as the "winner's curse". In the course of this paper we develop a specific definition of the winner's curse, and demonstrate how it affects the firm's competitive behavior.

Recommendations for modeling upper plenum injection system for a pressurized water reactor

2019-04-12T08:25:46Z

Recommendations for modeling upper plenum injection system for a pressurized water reactor Griffith, Peter; Kan, John The present work examines the unique heat transfer modeling problems associated with analysis of performance of an upper plenum emergency core cooling injection system during a postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) in a pressurized water reactor. The particular system under study consists of four 4-inch pipes conveying emergency core cooling water from outside the pressure vessel through four spare control and rod mechanism housings and internal pipings, discharging the water directly over the top of the reactor core. Previously, it has been assumed that the water injected into the upper plenum passes through the reactor core to the lower plenum without any heat interaction with the fuel rods during a LOCA. This simplified model neglects the many beneficial and adverse effects that accompany the upper plenum injection. This study is undertaken to examine the following items · heat transfer to the emergency core coolant before reaching the core · flow and heat transfer through the reactor core · reflood heat transfer. The phenomena occurring will be delineated and recommendations made for calculating both conservative and best estimate values. The method of solving these problems will be illustrated in a series of examples given in the appendices.

A comparative analysis of fuel price forecasts

2019-04-12T07:24:36Z

A comparative analysis of fuel price forecasts Marlay, Robert C. A comparative analysis of four sets of fuel price forecasts is made for each of the four primary energy sources: coal, oil, natural gas and uranium. These forecasts, together with historical data over the period from 1960 to 1977, are presented in graphical and tabular form to the year 2000. A graphical summary is then made of a synthesized forecast considered most likely for each fuel, plotted in common units of 1977 cents per million BTU, showing relative trends among competing energy forms.

Comparing advanced energy cycles and developing priorities for future R&D

2019-04-12T08:25:55Z

Comparing advanced energy cycles and developing priorities for future R&D Gruhl, Jim; Sotak, Arthur E. This report lists and discusses the types of information that are necessary for making decisions about the allocation of R&D funds among various electric power related energy technologies. The discussion is divided into two parts: (1) the task of choosing among different technologies and (2) the task of guiding toward the most important specific projects within an individual technology. To choose among alternative energy technologies requires assumptive information, assessment infor- mation, probabilistic information, and techniques for quantifying the overall desirability of each alternative. Guidance toward the most important projects requires information about levels and uncertainties of certain performance measures and their importance relative to external thresholds or relative to the performance of competing technologies. Some simple examples are presented to illustrate the discussion. A bibliography of more than 200 important references in this field was compiled and is appended to this report.

Macro-engineering : how to decide?

2019-04-12T08:25:52Z

Macro-engineering : how to decide? Jones, William J.

Some long-term problems in OPEC oil pricing

2019-04-12T08:25:52Z

Some long-term problems in OPEC oil pricing Pindyck, Robert S.

The determination and control of money supply in an oil exporting country : the Iranian experience

2019-04-12T07:24:36Z

The determination and control of money supply in an oil exporting country : the Iranian experience Dailami, Mansoor Revised Feb. 1979

Nuclear plant reliability analysis : optimization of test intervals for standby purposes in nuclear power plants

2019-04-12T08:25:51Z

Nuclear plant reliability analysis : optimization of test intervals for standby purposes in nuclear power plants Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Laboratory; Karimi, Roohollah

The choice of an optimal currency for denominating the price of oil

2019-04-12T07:24:38Z

The choice of an optimal currency for denominating the price of oil Dailami, Mansoor

LWR core thermal-hydraulic analysis : assessment and comparison of the range of applicability of the codes COBRA IIIC/MIT and COBRA IV-I

2019-04-12T08:25:50Z

LWR core thermal-hydraulic analysis : assessment and comparison of the range of applicability of the codes COBRA IIIC/MIT and COBRA IV-I Kelly, J. E.; Loomis, James N.; Wolf, Lothar This report summarizes the result of studies concerning the range of applicability of two subchannel codes for a variety of thermal-hydraulic analyses. The subchannel codes used include COBRA IIIC/MIT and the newly developed code, COBRA IV-I which is considered the benchmark code for the purpose of this report. Hence, through the comparisons of the two codes, the applicability of COBRA IIIC/MIT is assessed with respect to COBRA IV-I. A variety of LWR thermal-hydraulic analyses are examined. Results of both codes for steady-state and transient analyses are compared. The types of analysis include BWR bundle-wide analysis, a simulated rod ejection and loss of flow transients for a PWR. The system parameters were changed drastically to reach extreme coolant conditions, thereby establishing upper limits. In addition to these cases, both codes are compared to experimental data including measured coolant exit temperatures in a core, interbundle mixing for inlet flow upset cases and two-subchannel flow blockage measurements. The comparisons showed that, overall, COBRA IIIC/MIT predicts most thermal-hydraulic parameters quite satisfactorily. However, the clad temperature predictions differ from those calculated by COBRA IV-I and appear to be in error. These incorrect predictions are caused by the discontinuity in the heat transfer coefficient at the start of boiling. Hence, if the heat transfer package is corrected, then COBRA IIIC/MIT should be just as applicable as the implicit option of COBRA IV-I. Based on the M.S. thesis of the first author in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1978.

How much do you know about energy? : a quiz from the Energy Lab

2019-04-12T08:25:50Z

How much do you know about energy? : a quiz from the Energy Lab Energy Laboratory

A user's guide to the three sector quarterly macro data base

2019-04-12T08:25:48Z

A user's guide to the three sector quarterly macro data base Mork, Knut Anton; Flavin, Marjorie; Pauls, Barbara Dianne

WOSUB : a subchannel code for steady-state and transient thermal-hydraulic analysis of BWR fuel pin bundles. Volume III. Assessment and Comparison

2019-04-12T13:39:24Z

WOSUB : a subchannel code for steady-state and transient thermal-hydraulic analysis of BWR fuel pin bundles. Volume III. Assessment and Comparison Wolf, Lothar; Levin, A.; Faya, A.; Boyd, W.; Guillebaud, Louis Jean Marie The WOSUB-codes are spin-offs and extensions of the MATTEO-code [1]. The series of three reports describe WOSUB-I and WOSUB-II in their respective status as of July 31, 1977. This report is the third in a series of three, the first of which [2] contains all the information about the models, solution methods and constitutive equations and the second [3] being the user's manual of the code. This report summarizes the assessment of the WOSUB- code against experiments and compares its results with the results of other subchannel codes. The following experiments are used for the purpose of the assessment of the code under steady-state conditions: 1) 9-rod GE-tests with radially uniform and non- uniform peaking factor patterns. 2) 16-rod Columbia tests with slight power tilts. 3) Planned 9-rod Swedish tests with very strong power tilts. 4) Actually performed 9-rod Swedish tests with power tilt. 5) 9-rod GE-CHF experiments. The comparison with these data shows that WOSUB is capable of predicting the lower-than-average behavior of the corner sub- channel and the higher-than-average behavior of the center subchannel for both quality and mass flux. None of the other well-known subchannel codes is indeed capable of specifically predicting the correct corner subchannel behavior. These codes seem to inherently suffer from major deficiencies associated with their incorporated mixing models. Therefore, it is con- cluded that only improved models for the description of two- phase flow phenomena are capable of handling these situations and that the vapor drift flux model together with the vapor diffusion model as incorporated into WOSUB is doing a good job. The fact that WOSUB does not perfectly match the experimental results over the whole spectrum of experimental evidence can be attributed to the vapor diffusion model which was originally fitted to air-water test results in a geometry consisting of two subchannels only. Obviously, this geometry leads to over- emphasizing the importance of the vapor diffusion as compared to what actually happens in a multi-rod geometry. WOSUB gives the user the option of calculating the critical power as a function of the boiling length - a concept which is especially useful to easily account for axially nonuniform power profiles and which closely resembles the procedure now used by GE. Furthermore, the code determines four heat transfer coefficients around the circumference of the fuel pin, thus giving the user the possibility of selecting the minimal one for the purpose of hot spot calculations. Overall, the assessment and comparison presented in this volume show that the WOSUB-code has to be considered a valuable tool for BWR bundle and PWR test bundle analysis with a potential for further improvements. The commonly used concept of power-to-flow ratio fails to explain most of the test data used for comparison in this report. The WOSUB-code is still in the stage of evolutionary development. In this context, the results presented in this present report have to be considered preliminary. They reflect the development as of July 1977.

WOSUB : a subchannel code for steady-state and transient thermal-hydraulic analysis of BWR fuel pin bundles. Volume II. User's Manual

2019-04-12T08:25:51Z

WOSUB : a subchannel code for steady-state and transient thermal-hydraulic analysis of BWR fuel pin bundles. Volume II. User's Manual Guillebaud, Louis Jean Marie.; Levine, A.; Boyd, W.; Faya, A.; Wolf, Lothar The WOSUB-codes are spin-offs and extensions of the MATTEO- code [ 2 ]. The series of reports describe WOSUB-I and WOSUB-II in their respective status as of July 31, 1977. This report is the second of a series of three reports describing the WOSUB code. It gives a detailed description of the input data, flow charts, and output, and contains the list- ings of WOSUB-I and WOSUB-II. For the purpose of future ex- tensions parameters, common blocks and variables used in the code are listed in full detail. WOSUB-I and WOSUB-II are subchannel computer codes for the steady-state and transient analysis of the thermal-hydraulic characteristics of Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) fuel rod bundles. Both codes are also applicable'to analyze PR bundles, especially when these are ducted--a situation which most often arises in experimental set-ups. The main difference between WOSUB-I and WOSUB-II is that the former is designed to analyze small bundles, whereas the latter is capable to handle symmetric sections of today's large- sized BWR bundles. In addition, WOSUB-II does not contain all of the additions made in WOSUB-I yet, because it is deemed appropriate to introduce these into the smaller code first, before they are implemented into the bigger one. Both codes are still in the stage of evolutionary develop- ment. Thus, changes are to be expected in the near future. There- fore, it should be noticed that this report reflects the develop- ment as of July 1977 only. WOSUB (Computer program).

The purpose and role of product standards in the commercialization of new energy technologies : a preliminary analysis

2019-04-12T07:24:37Z

The purpose and role of product standards in the commercialization of new energy technologies : a preliminary analysis Bottaro, Drew This paper discusses the role of product standards in a commercialization program. The usefulness of standards is explained as arising from the existence of transaction costs and other market failures in the operation of markets, and the effects of standards upon market operation are broadly discussed. The role of standards in a commercialization program is then explored and is seen as justified by the existence of market failures and the lack of suitable options other than standards available for remedying certain particulars of the situation. A description of the voluntary standards system follows to show how its use in a commercialization program may modify the governmental role.

WOSUB : a subchannel code for steady-state and transient thermal-hydraulic analysis of BWR fuel pin bundles.

2019-04-12T08:25:49Z

WOSUB : a subchannel code for steady-state and transient thermal-hydraulic analysis of BWR fuel pin bundles. Wolf, Lothar; Guillebaud, Louis Jean Marie; Faya, A. The WOSUB-codes are spin-offs and extensions of the MATTEO-code [1]. The series of three reports describe WOSUB-I and WOSUB-II in their respective status as of July 31, 1977. This report is the first in a series of three, the second of which contains the user's manual [2] and the third [3] summarizes the assessment and comparison with experimental data and various other subchannel codes. The present report introduces the drift-flux and vapor diffusion models employed by the code, discusses the solution method and reviews the constitutive equations presently built into the code. Wherever applicable, possible exteriors of the models are indicated especially with due regard of the findings presented in [3]. Overall, the review of the model and the package of constitutive equations demonstrate that WOSUB-I and II constitute true alternatives for BWR bundle and PWR test bundle calculations as compared to the commonly applied COBRA-IIIC, and COBRA-IIIC/MIT codes which were primarily designed for PWR subchannel and core calculations, respectively. In fact, the incorporation of the drift flux and the vapor diffusion pro- cesses into a subchannel code has to be cdnsidered.a major step towards a more basic understanding and a well balanced engineer- ing approach without the extra burden of a true two-fluid two- phase model. Recommendations for improvements in the various areas are indicated and should serve as guidelines for future develop- ment of this code which in light of the encouraging results pre- sented in [3] seems to be highly warranted. The WOSUB-code is still in the stage of evolutionary development. In this context, the review reflects the achieve- ments as of July 1977.

Methods and examples of model validation : an annotated bibliography

2019-04-12T08:25:48Z

Methods and examples of model validation : an annotated bibliography Gruhl, Jim; Gruhl, N.

The demand for electricity: comment and further results

2019-04-12T08:25:47Z

The demand for electricity: comment and further results Berndt, Ernst R.

The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling, calibration and implications for government policy

2019-04-12T08:25:47Z

The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling, calibration and implications for government policy Lilien, Gary Louis Prepared for the United States Dept. of Energy under Contract no. EX-76-A-01-2295, Task order 37.

A regulatory adjustment process for optimal pricing by multiproduct monopoly firms

2019-04-12T07:24:34Z

A regulatory adjustment process for optimal pricing by multiproduct monopoly firms Vogelsang, Ingo; Finsinger, Jörg This paper describes an incentive mechanism that is shown to enforce the use of Ramsey prices by multiproduct monopolies. The constraint given is simple. It limits information requirements on the regulatory agency to bookkeeping data of the firm. Its implementation could be easily controlled by outside courts or auditors. The process, therefore, makes use of invisible hand properties shifting the workload of welfare optimization from the regulatory agency to the regulated firm. This may lead to the ironical conclusion that regulatory commissions should fire their economists. It, however, becomes both profitable and socially beneficial for the regulated firms to employ them. *University of Bonn and M.I.T. Energy Laboratory, Cambridge, Mass.; University of Bonn and International Institute of Management, Berlin, respectively. We owe thanks to various readers of a previous version. Truman Bewley, Peter Diamond, Jonathan Goodman, Ray Hartman, Martin Hellwig, Roger Sherman, Christian von Weizs'acker and an anonymous referee will find that their suggestions have left traces in this paper.

Extensions and revisions of the MIT regional electricity model

2019-04-12T08:25:45Z

Extensions and revisions of the MIT regional electricity model White, David Edwin

Toward a theory of institutional analysis

2019-04-12T07:24:32Z

Toward a theory of institutional analysis Nutt-Powell, Thomas E. This paper provides the basic analytic framework for institutional analysis with particular reference to the acceptance of innovations. A theory of institutions is developed, then assessed in light of various theories of organizations. It is posited that there are six types of institutional entities -- formal and informal organizations, members, persons, collectivities and social orders. Institutions are characterized by function, activity and role. Institutional action consists of exchanges for which the critical datum is information. Such exchanges occur within an institutional arena. Innovation forces institutional action by disrupting existing social meaning. Based on this theory a methodology is developed which enables study of innovation acceptance in various institutional arenas. The methodology involves several steps: (1) Determine study sector and purpose; (2) Preliminary sector exploration; (3) Construct hypothesized institutional arena; (4) Identify perturbation prompter; (5) Devise specific research design; (6) Monitor perturbation; (7) Analyze institutional arena.

Coal-fired open cycle magnetohydrodynamic power plant emissions and energy efficiences

2019-04-12T08:25:44Z

Coal-fired open cycle magnetohydrodynamic power plant emissions and energy efficiences Gruhl, Jim This study is a review of projected emissions and energy efficiencies of coal-fired open cycle MHD power plants. Ideally one would like to develop empirically-based probabilistic models of MHD performance. However, with the lack of empirical information about full-sized facilities this survey concentrates on modeling analytically developed data. Also presented are discussions of unresolved MHD issues of importance, comprehensive lists of recent and ongoing research, and a bibliography of material related to emissions and efficiencies of coal-fired open cycle MHD power plants.

The energy price shock and the 1974-75 recession

2019-04-12T08:37:07Z

The energy price shock and the 1974-75 recession Mork, Knut Anton

Why are prices so rigid?

2019-04-11T04:57:47Z

Why are prices so rigid? Mork, Knut Anton. Based in part on the author's thesis, (Ph.D.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Economics, 1977.

Design and fuel management of PWR cores to optimize the once-through fuel cycle

2019-04-12T07:40:34Z

Design and fuel management of PWR cores to optimize the once-through fuel cycle Fujita, Edward Kei; Driscoll, Michael J.; Lanning, David D. The once-through fuel cycle has been analyzed to see if there are substantial prospects for improved uranium ore utilization in current light water reactors, with a specific focus on pressurized water reactors. The types of changes which have been examined are: (1) re-optimization of fuel pin diameter and lattice pitch, (2) Axial power shaping by enrichment gradation in fresh fuel, (3) Use of 6-batch cores with semi-annual refueling, (4) Use of 6-batch cores with annual refueling, hence greater extended (.doubled) burnup, (5) Use of radial reflector assemblies, (6) Use of internally heterogeneous cores (simple seed/blanket configurations), (7) Use of power/temperature coastdown at the end of life to extend burnup, (8) Use of metal or diluted oxide fuel, (9) Use of thorium, and (10) Use of isotopically separated low a cladding material. a State-of-the-art LWR computational methods, LEOPARD/PDQ-7/FLARE-G, were used to investigate these modifications. The most effective way found to improve uranium ore utilization is to increase the discharge burnup. Ore savings on the order of 20% can be realized if greatly extended burnup (- double that of current practice) is combined with an increase in the number of batches in the core from 3 to 6. The major conclusion of this study is that cumulative reductions in ore usage of on the order of 30% are fore- seeable relative to a current PWR operating on the once-through fuel cycle, which is comparable to that expected for the same cores operated in the recycle mode. Originally presented as the first author's thesis, (Sc.D.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1978.

Effects of environmental protection and public safety regulatory practices upon light water reactor economics

2019-04-09T15:38:22Z

Effects of environmental protection and public safety regulatory practices upon light water reactor economics Golay, Michael Warren.; Saragossi, Isi Isaac. Submitted to the Department of Nuclear Engineering On May 16, 1978 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Nuclear Engineering. While there is a consensus regarding the need for extensive regulation of the nuclear power industry, the regulatory process has been the subject of almost constant controversy during recent years. Those subject to regulation complain that regulation is inefficient, that it causes unnecessary licensing and construction delays, and costs; the opponents of nuclear power charge that regulation is inadequate. This study is an effort to evaluate the performance of the regulatory process to which nuclear power plants are subject. The study is subdivided into three parts. Part one presents an analysis of the effects of regulation upon the leadtime and costs of Nuclear Power Plants in the United States. Licensing and construction delays and power plant cost increases caused by regulatory decisions during the past decade are evaluated. Part two is a brief review of the evolving differences between nuclear power plants and its main rival for base load generation, coal-fired plants, from the viewpoint of the electric utility planners. Finally, in Part three, the fundamental problems of the current regulatory process are assessed, and suggestions regarding how to address these problems are presented. The study is based on a survey of electric utility companies and on data available in the literature. The findings can be summarized as follows: 1. The liberal rules of the NRC licensing hearings and the lack of coordination between the NRC and state agencies are the major sources of uncertainty in the licensing of nuclear plants; 2. Redesigns and field reworks imposed by the NRC are responsible for an average of 50% of construction delays (15 months); 3. The increasing construction duration, resulting in and increasing amount of interest during construction has been the major cause of the rapid escalation of nuclear plant capital costs in the recent years. There appears to be a stabilization of the real value (constant dollars, excluding interest during construction) of nuclear plants coming on line after 1973; 4. The historically observed frequent and costly "ratchetings" and "backfittings" of nuclear plants were the inevitable result of the course of commercialization chosen by the industry rather than the consequence of inefficient regulation; 5. The current mix of political and technical issues which must be considered at the level of the NRC in licensing nuclear plants is identified as the major weakness of the current regulatory process; 6. The disparity between the "actuarial" view and the "catastrophic" view of the risks of nuclear energy indicates the need for formal consideration of social values in decision making.

Oil gaps, prices and economic growth

2019-04-12T08:37:11Z

Oil gaps, prices and economic growth Adelman, Morris Albert.; Jacoby, Henry D. M.I.T. World Oil Project.

A user's guide to the World Oil Project demand data base

2019-04-10T19:56:04Z

A user's guide to the World Oil Project demand data base Carson, Jacqueline

Optimal search for the best alternative

2019-04-11T06:23:21Z

Optimal search for the best alternative Weitzman, Martin Lawrence. Prepared under Contract no. EX-76-A-01-2295, Task order 37.

Robust techniques for developing empirical models of fluidized bed combustors

2019-04-09T19:23:45Z

Robust techniques for developing empirical models of fluidized bed combustors Gruhl, Jim; Tung, Shao-E.; Schweppe, Frederic C. This report is designed to provide a review of those data analysis techniques that are most useful for fitting m-dimensional empirical surfaces to very large sets of data. One issue explored is the improvement of data (1) using estimates of the relative size of measurement errors and (2) using known or assumed theoretical relationships. An apparently new concept is developed, named robust weighting, which facilitates the incorporation of a Driori knowledge, based upon the values of input and response variables, about the relative quality of different experiments. This is a particularly useful technique for obtaining statistical inferences from the most relevant portions of the data base, such as concentrating on important ranges of variables or extrapolating off the leading edge of the frontier of knowledge for an emerging technology. The robust weightings are also useful for forcing a priori known asymptotic behaviors, as well as for fighting biases due to shear size of conflicting data clusters and for formulating separate models for conflicting clusters. Another new development has evolved from the two very different objectives of the empirical modeling in this project. The first objective is the usual requirement for the best possible predictive mechanism, and standard techniques are useful with their emphasis on model building, specifically the successive separation of trend techniques. In addition, a second objective involves the pursuit of high-dimensional, yet simple, models that could provide insight into analytic gaps and scientific theories that might govern the situation. For this second objective a new stepwise process was developed for rapidly sweeping the data base and producing crude quantitative measures of the next (or the first) most important m-tuple relationship to incorporate into the empirical model. These quantitative guidelines have been named the fit improvement factors. Some of the standard statistical techniques reviewed include: graphical displays, resistant models, smoothing processes, nonlinear and nonparametric regressions, stopping rules, and spline functions for model hypothesis; and robust estimators and data splitting are reviewed as polishing and validating procedures. The concepts of setting, depth and scope of the validation process are described along with an array of about sixty techniques for validating models. Actual data from the recent literature about the performance of fluidized bed combustors is used as an example of some of the methods presented. Also included is a bibliography of more than 150 references on empirical model development and validation.

An economic analysis of grid-connected residential solar photovoltaic power systems

2019-04-11T04:57:49Z

An economic analysis of grid-connected residential solar photovoltaic power systems Carpenter, Paul R.; Taylor, Gerald Alan. The question of the utility grid-connected residential market for photovoltaics is examined from a user-ownership perspective. The price is calculated at which the user would be economically indifferent between having a photovoltaic system and not having a system. To accomplish this, a uniform methodology is defined to determine the value to the user-owner of weather-dependent electric generation technologies. Two models are implemented for three regions of the United States, the first of which is a previously developed simulation of a photovoltaic residence. The second is an economic valuation model which is required to translate the ouputs from the simulation into breakeven array prices. Special care is taken to specify the input assumptions used in the models. The accompanying analysis includes a method for analyzing the year-to-year variation in hourly solar radiation data and a discussion of the appropriate discount rate to apply to homeowner investments in photovoltaic systems. The results of this study indicate that for the regions characterized by Boston, Omaha, and Phoenix, under the assumptions noted, photovoltaic module breakeven costs for the residential application are in the range of $.68, $.43 and $1.27 per peak system watt respectively (.42, .24, .89 per peak module watt). Prepared for the United States Dept. of Energy under Contract no. EX-76-A-01-2295, Task order 37.

Photovoltaic power systems : review of current market studies : methodology for long term demand projection

2019-04-12T08:37:10Z

Photovoltaic power systems : review of current market studies : methodology for long term demand projection Tabors, Richard D.

The economics of water lifting for small scale irrigation in the third world: |b traditional and photovoltaic technologies

2019-04-11T04:57:46Z

The economics of water lifting for small scale irrigation in the third world: |b traditional and photovoltaic technologies Tabors, Richard D.

Micro irrigation with photovoltaics

2019-04-09T18:24:39Z

Micro irrigation with photovoltaics Smith, Douglas Virgil; Allison, Steven V. Prepared under contract no. EX-76-A-01-2295-037.

Comparative analysis of United States and French nuclear power plant siting and construction regulatory policies and their economic consequences

2019-04-09T17:56:32Z

Comparative analysis of United States and French nuclear power plant siting and construction regulatory policies and their economic consequences Golay, Michael Warren.; Saragossi, Isi Isaac.; Willefert, Jean-Marc. Despite the substantial commitments of time and money which are devoted to the nuclear power plant siting process, the effectiveness of the system in providing a balanced evaluation of the technical, environmental and public interest considerations is periodically questioned. Until now, all improvements in the siting process have introduced increased complexity and delays. In order to approach this problem from a new point of view, it is interesting to evaluate U.S. siting and licensing processes in contrast with corresponding foreign policies. This work compares the American and French policies. Initially, the economic structures, procedures and regulations in both countries that determine the siting policies and procedures for nuclear power plants are examined. Then, the results of a survey of American utilities' practices concerning their licensing histories and delays that have affected U.S. nuclear power reactors since 1965 are analyzed. It is found that although the French experience is more limited than the American one, French practices emphasize an attempt to shift consideration of major design issues in the early stages of the construction permit process, before major on-site construction commitments are made. Other important differences are that the French process is cooperative and flexible while the American process is adverserial, legalistic and rigid; and the French process allows for very little public participation or review of regulatory decisions while the American process allows relatively easy participation of public and non-federal agencies in the licensing process and has the possibility for review of regulatory decisions at several administrative and judicial levels. Power station construction and operation delays are common in the United States experience and rare in the French experience.

Empirical models of emissions and energy efficiencies of coal-fired fluidized bed power plants

2019-04-12T08:37:09Z

Empirical models of emissions and energy efficiencies of coal-fired fluidized bed power plants Gruhl, Jim; Teare, J. Derek Mass and energy balances of fluidized bed energy technologies are to a significant degree dependent upon the specific design being investigated. It is difficult to make any generally accurate comments. about these balances. This study attempts to solve this difficulty by displaying a large amount of available data, especially on parametric experiments, for the specific designs. To the extent that generalizations about the efficiencies and emissions of these cycles are.possible empirical correlation models have been developed, along with measures of the predictive quality of these models over existing data bases. These empirical correlations consist of probabilistic models that have been fit to published experimental data. In several instances, there have been comparison of these empirical models with available analytic models. In the cases of unavailable experimental data, such as for the potassium topping cycles, models have been fit to analytic data. Although the overall scale of this effort was very small compared to other fluidized bed reviews, such as those performed at Babcock and Wilcox, Burns and Roe, and Battelle-Columbus, the empirical models are new and in the narrow scope of this study some of-the literature reviews are more comprehensive than others available at this time. Extensive bibliographic research and identification-of on-going projects is also included in this report.

ERDA's role in the development and acceptance of light water reactors

2019-04-12T08:37:05Z

ERDA's role in the development and acceptance of light water reactors Light Water Reactor Study Group.

Aggregate energy, efficiency and productivity measurement

2019-04-12T08:25:47Z

Aggregate energy, efficiency and productivity measurement Berndt, Ernst R.

Estimating a policy model of U.S. coal supply

2019-04-11T04:57:42Z

Estimating a policy model of U.S. coal supply Zimmerman, Martin B.

Proceedings of the eighth International Closed-Cycle Specialists' Meeting held at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Laboratory, Cambridge, Massachusetts, May 19-20, 1977.

2019-04-12T07:24:35Z

Proceedings of the eighth International Closed-Cycle Specialists' Meeting held at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Laboratory, Cambridge, Massachusetts, May 19-20, 1977. Prepared under D.O.E. Order no. ET-78-X-01-2975.

Engineering and econometric approaches to industrial energy conservation and capital formation : a reconciliation

2019-04-11T04:57:41Z

Engineering and econometric approaches to industrial energy conservation and capital formation : a reconciliation Berndt, Ernst R.; Wood, David O.

The inflationary impact of higher energy prices 1973-1975

2019-04-11T04:57:45Z

The inflationary impact of higher energy prices 1973-1975 Mork, Knut Anton

Financial markets and the adjustment to higher oil prices

2019-04-12T08:37:04Z

Financial markets and the adjustment to higher oil prices Agmon, Tamir; Lessard, Donald R.; Paddock, James Lester

The effectiveness of government initiatives in energy conservation

2019-04-12T07:24:35Z

The effectiveness of government initiatives in energy conservation Boshier, John F. Energy policy in the US is characterized by two motivations: to stem the flow of currency to the oil producing nations, and to prevent energy prices rising as much as it is now being feared they will. Conservation has been seized upon as a principal initiative, and the two most important components of present policy are the investment tax credit and energy taxes. The investment tax credit is aimed toward improving the way energy is used without raising the price. It lowers the price of capital relative to energy for applications where there is a tradeoff. But this measure is working against the current of wider taxation measures which stimulate energy growth through lowering the price of capital and raising the price of labor, thus encouraging investment in energy intensive equipment to substitute for labor. The conservation investment tax credit does not reverse this trend. Nor does it have a significant effect in raising the rate of return on an investment in conservation, which is dominated by the energy savings and the expected inflation in energy prices. In summary, it appears that the tax credit will have difficulty achieving the goals set for it. An encouragement of activities that conserve or substitute for energy by promoting employment rather than extra capital investment is necessary. In a society, which has been built on low cost energy, taxation measures which increase the price of energy are both unpopular and disruptive. But higher prices are inevitable and the rise is likely to be rapid after 1985. Recession both in the US and throughout the world is very likely. A policy of phasing in higher prices through taxes will enable the economic and social effects to be monitored and will encourage the necessary new technologies.

Producers, consumers, and multinationals : problems in analyzing a non-competitive market

2019-04-11T04:57:40Z

Producers, consumers, and multinationals : problems in analyzing a non-competitive market Adelman, Morris Albert A paper written two years ago gave a general analysis of the current world oil market, indicating why the price had nothing to do with real scarcity, but was set by a monopoly both vulnerable and very strong. The purpose is now t analyze the market more closely, with a view to making some predictions about future prices. Non-competitive markets are notoriously hard to analyze, because we have no precise theory of small-group actions. Furthermore, the current cartel2 is very recent, and its great successes since the 1970 Libyan negotiations have been and still are a learning process. But we can at least identify the principal factors, and eliminate irrelevant or wrong hypotheses.

The conditional/generalized maximum likelihood logit computer program : instructions for use, energy management and economics

2019-04-11T04:57:45Z

The conditional/generalized maximum likelihood logit computer program : instructions for use, energy management and economics Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Laboratory in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning. Prepared for the U.S. Dept. of Energy under Contract no. EX-76-A-01-2295, Task order 37.

The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural - irrigation sector

2019-04-12T07:24:33Z

The diffusion of photovoltaics : background, modeling and initial reaction of the agricultural - irrigation sector Lilien, Gary Louis This paper deals with the background, development and calibration of a model of innovation-diffusion, designed to help allocate government field test and demonstration resources in support of a photovoltaic technology across sectors, regions and over time. The paper reviews current work in the area of diffusion and substitution models, and gives a brief review of current theory in the buyer behavior area. A model is developed, drawing upon concepts in these areas, and its computer implementation is reviewed. The measures needed to calibrate the model are performed in the agricultural-irrigation sector in conjunction with a field installation in Mead, Nebraska. The analysis of those results indicated that - only three to four demonstration projects are needed to eliminate new product risk-perception among farmers; - exposure to a working PV site makes farmers more aware of potential energy savings than does a description of the system; - key factors associated with PV are - newness/expense - complexity of the system and use of untried concepts - independence from traditional fuel sources. - exposure to the site has little effect on preference; - PV is acceptable to a wide range of farmers; - a premium would be paid for the product. Additional model developments and the potential of a model-use to support decision-making for government programs are reviewed.

An oligopolistic pricing model of the U.S. copper industry : a probability model approach

2019-04-10T16:53:32Z

An oligopolistic pricing model of the U.S. copper industry : a probability model approach Hartman, Raymond Steve.

Automobile safety regulation : technological change and regulatory process

2019-04-12T08:37:03Z

Automobile safety regulation : technological change and regulatory process Lorang, Philip Alphonse; Linden, Lawrence Howard. This report examines the history of automobile safety regulation since 1966, viewed as an attempt to substitute public decisions on the design of new automobiles for private decisions. The focus of the examination is on the problems which confront regulators in the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in their attempt to affect the design and performance of automobiles and on the effect regulation has actually had on automotive technology. Congress gave the NHTSA two ways of bringing about changes in the design and performance of automobiles. The NHTSA may set mandatory performance standards for automobiles and may conduct research and development on new automobile safety technology. Congress did not set a programmed goal that was to be achieved through these methods, however. Instead, the NHTSA must continually decide in an ad hoc fashion the desirability of particular changes in the attributes of new cars. Those that it finds desirable must be forced into practice through standards. The purpose of the agency's R&D is to make possible for the first time additional changes in vehicle attributes which the agency may then choose to force into practice as well. Several inherent problems in developing the technical requirements in proposals for new standards and in judging the desirability of proposals have not been fully resolved by the NHTSA. They have had a detrimental effect on the number and quality of standards promulgated since the initial set. The agency's efforts in developing new technology have also faced problems and have so far not contributed to its standards. In order for regulatory action to be taken, policy decisions must be made to compensate for uncertainties in predictions of the impacts of. proposed standards. Policy decisions must also be made as to the desirable balance between reductions in traffic risks and increased costs. The uncertainties could be reduced if more reliance were placed on large-scale experimental testing of contemplated safety modifications in actual use. The policy choices that would remain, of both types, could be improved if they were recognized as such and the process for making them opened up to greater outside inspection and participation.

Consumer choice of durables and energy demand

2019-04-12T07:24:33Z

Consumer choice of durables and energy demand Hausman, Jerry A.

International management of spent fuel storage : technical alternatives and constraints, topical report

2019-04-11T04:57:44Z

International management of spent fuel storage : technical alternatives and constraints, topical report Miller, Marvin M. Some of the important technical issues involved in the implementation of a spent fuel storage regime under international auspices are discussed. In particular, we consider: the state of the art as far as the different possible storage modes are concerned, the relevant accident, sabotage, and transportation considerations, and the impact of recent technical spent fuel safeguards initiatives on the nonproliferation rationale for international spent fuel management. Prepared for the U.S. Dept. of Energy under Contract no. EN-77-S-02-4571.A000.

The incomplete means estimation procedure applied to flood frequency analysis

2019-04-12T08:37:02Z

The incomplete means estimation procedure applied to flood frequency analysis Houghton, John C.

A critical review of single fuel and interfuel substitution residential energy demand models

2019-04-12T08:25:45Z

A critical review of single fuel and interfuel substitution residential energy demand models Hartman, Raymond Steve The overall purpose of this paper is to formulate a model of residential energy demand that adequately analyzes all aspects of residential consumer energy demand behavior and properly treats the penetration of new technologies, particularly solar photovoltaics, in an explicit fashion. An adequate treatment of energy demand must take account of the fact that both fuel demand and the demand for fuel-burning equipment are jointly derived from the demand for fuel related services. This requires modelling both demand for fuels and for their related equipment. In order to model the equipment demand and the demand for new technologies, the technological characteristics of the alternative equipment must be explicitly analyzed. The formulated model attempts such explicit analyses. In order to formulate such a model this paper first introduces and reviews 19 existing residential energy demand models to ascertain how well they have dealt with these issues. Prepared by Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Energy Laboratory Cambridge, Mass., for the United States Department of Energy under contract no. EX-876-A-01-2295, task order 37.

Birth of a parent : the Wakeby distribution for modeling flood flows

2019-04-12T08:37:01Z

Birth of a parent : the Wakeby distribution for modeling flood flows Houghton, John C.

Independent assessment of energy policy models : two case studies

2019-04-11T04:57:43Z

Independent assessment of energy policy models : two case studies Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Model Assessment Group. Energy policy models are playing an increasingly important and visible role in supporting both private and public energy policy research and decision making. As importance has increased so too has the need for model review and assessment to assist in establishing model credibility for users and those affected by model-based policy research. Toward this end EPRI has sponsored the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory in a one-year project to assess two important energy system models, the Baughman-Joskow Regionalized Electricity Model and the Wharton Annual Energy Model, and to identify and analyze organizational and procedural issues in the model assessment process. Prepared for the Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA.

Externalities and the placement of property rights : an alternative formulation to the standard Pigouvian results

2019-04-11T04:57:39Z

Externalities and the placement of property rights : an alternative formulation to the standard Pigouvian results Hartman, Raymond Steve.

Cyclical variation in the productivity of labor

2019-04-09T16:44:05Z

Cyclical variation in the productivity of labor Mork, Knut Anton A revision of parts of the author's thesis, (Ph.D.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Economics, 1977.

Consistent projections of energy demand and aggregate economic growth : a review of issues and empirical studies

2019-04-09T18:30:13Z

Consistent projections of energy demand and aggregate economic growth : a review of issues and empirical studies Berndt, Ernst R.; Wood, David O.

Nuclear power and nuclear weapons proliferation

2019-04-11T04:57:38Z

Nuclear power and nuclear weapons proliferation Moniz, Ernest J.; Neff, Thomas L.

Alternative methods of oil supply forecasting

2019-04-11T04:57:37Z

Alternative methods of oil supply forecasting Adelman, Morris Albert.; Jacoby, Henry D. This paper represents a collective effort by the Supply Analysis Group of the M.I.T. World Oil Project.

Workshop on Institutional Aspects of Proliferation Resistance

2019-04-12T08:25:43Z

Workshop on Institutional Aspects of Proliferation Resistance Dalzell, Mark; Miller, Marvin M. Prepared for the U.S. Dept. of Energy under Contract no. EN-77-S-02-4571.A000. Organized by the MIT Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, PSIA, and the U.S. Dept. of Energy.

Prices and shortages : evaluating policy options for the natural gas industry

2019-04-12T08:37:00Z

Prices and shortages : evaluating policy options for the natural gas industry Pindyck, Robert S.

The economics and regulation of user-owned photovoltaic systems : a preliminary analysis

2019-04-12T08:37:00Z

The economics and regulation of user-owned photovoltaic systems : a preliminary analysis Carpenter, Paul R.; Taylor, Gerald Alan

Rent & regulation in unit-train rate determination regional discrimination and inter-fuel competition

2019-04-12T08:37:07Z

Rent & regulation in unit-train rate determination regional discrimination and inter-fuel competition Zimmerman, Martin B.

The solar photovoltaics industry : the status and evolution of the technology and the institutions

2019-04-12T08:36:59Z

The solar photovoltaics industry : the status and evolution of the technology and the institutions Linden, Lawrence H. Prepared for the United States, Department of Energy, under contract no. EX-76-A-01-2295, task order 37, by Energy Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Residential demand for electricity in Massachusetts

2019-04-12T08:36:59Z

Residential demand for electricity in Massachusetts Wills, John

International comparisons of the residential demand for energy

2019-04-12T08:37:12Z

International comparisons of the residential demand for energy Pindyck, Robert S. A revised and updated version of "International comparisons of the residential demand for energy: a preliminary analysis," Working paper #MIT-EL 76-023WP, by the same author.

Photovoltaic decision analysis

2019-04-12T08:37:10Z

Photovoltaic decision analysis Goldman, Neil L. This paper is concerned with the development and implementation of a methodology that analyzes information relating to the choice between flat plate and concentrator technologies for photovoltaic development. A Decision Analysis approach is used to compare and systematically evaluate the two photovoltaic energy conversion systems. This methodology provides a convenient framework for structuring the decision process in an orderly sequential fashion via decision trees, incorporating information on subjective probabilities of future outcomes, and focusing attention on critical options and uncertainties. A significant tenet of the analysis is that any set of energy technologies must be compared on the basis of the cost of generated energy rather than simply on the basis of the cost of hardware production. As a result, the cost analyses presented focus on a comparison of energy generated by the photovoltaic systems in units of $/kWh, rather than on a comparison based on units of $/peak kW. The criterion for choice between the alternative technologies is chosen to be minimization of expected cost per unit of energy generated. After presenting the decision tree framework used to structure the problem, including a classification of the components of the competing technologies, a detailed procedure for calculating the system cost per kilowatt-hour for each path through the decision tree is described for each technology and methods for assessing subjective probability distributions are discussed. This paper is a product of the Photovoltaics Project Decision Analysis task of the Planning and Analysis for Development of Photovoltaic Energy Conversion System project, supported at the MIT Energy Laboratory, under subcontract to the MIT Lincoln Laboratory, by the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration

A generic study of strip mining impacts on groundwater resources

2019-04-09T19:15:23Z

A generic study of strip mining impacts on groundwater resources Hamilton, David Andrew; Wilson, John Loyd This report evaluates the influence of strip mining features, commonly found in the Northern Great Plains Coal Region, on ground water hydrology. The features examined are: reclaimed mine geometry, relative transmissivity between the reclaimed spoil and the surrounding unmined coal bed aquifer, anisotropy, the gravity sorted rubble layer, coal wedges left between trench cuts, and the position and size of an operational mine in the regional flow system. A finite element computer model was used to simulate the groundwater flow field from three frames of reference: a local plan view of the mine site (local hydrology), a cross sectional view of flow through the reclaimed mine interior (interior flow), and a cross sectional view of a regional flow system (regional hydrology). The simulation model solved for the piezometric head distribution in each system. For each simulation the piezometric head contours were plotted, and in some cases, the increase in flux induced by the mine properties, and the contact time of water passing through the reclaimed spoil were calculated. Although only the flow of water through the spoil was modeled, water quality effects were inferred through a set of indices dealing with the reclaimed mine size and amount of water passing through it. The effects of a reclaimed mine were studied in the local and interior flow simulations. The influence of an operational mine was examined in the regional simulation. In all cases, the long term impacts were simulated by solving for the steady state condition. Regional location is found to be the most important factor in the influence of an operational mine on groundwater resources. Relative transmissivity is the most important factor in determining the influence of a reclaimed mine. When present, the rubble layer dominates the flow pattern through the mine spoil. The coal wedges are apparently of little hydrologic consequence. Equidimensional mine shapes are preferred to elongated shapes because they induce the least amount of flow through the spoil per unit extracted coal. Originally presented as the first author's thesis, (M.S.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1977.

OPEC, oil prices, and the Western economies

2019-04-12T08:37:09Z

OPEC, oil prices, and the Western economies Pindyck, Robert S.

esidential demand for electricity in Massachusetts

2019-04-12T08:36:58Z

esidential demand for electricity in Massachusetts Wills, John

Issues in federally supported research on advanced automotive power systems

2019-04-10T20:59:57Z

Issues in federally supported research on advanced automotive power systems Linden, Lawrence H.; Samuelson., Paul R.; Kumar, Subramanyam

Interfuel substitution and the industrial demand for energy : an international comparison

2019-04-12T08:37:08Z

Interfuel substitution and the industrial demand for energy : an international comparison Pindyck, Robert S

Modelling of unidirectional thermal diffusers in shallow water

2019-04-11T04:57:36Z

Modelling of unidirectional thermal diffusers in shallow water Lee, Joseph Hun-Wei; Jirka, Gerhard Hermann; Harleman, Donald R. F. This study is an experimental and theoretical investigation of the temperature field and velocity field induced by a unidirectional thermal diffuser in shallow water. A multiport thermal diffuser is essentially a pipe laid along the bottom of the water body and discharging heated water in the form of turbulent jets through a series of ports spaced along the pipe. A unidirectional diffuser inputs large momentum in one direction; it can achieve rapid mixing within relatively small areas, and has the advantage of directing the thermal effluent away from the shoreline. The theory considers a unidirectional diffuser discharging into shallow water of constant depth in the presence of a coflowing ambient current. A fully mixed condition is hypothesized downstream of the diffuser. A two dimensional potential flow model is formulated and solved in'the near field, where flow is governed by a dominant balance of pressure and inertia. A control volume analysis gives the total induced flow, which is used as an integral boundary condition in the potential flow solution. The shape of the slip streamline is solved using Kirchoff's method; the velocity and pressure field are then computed by a finite difference method. The correct boundary conditions along the diffuser are deduced. Knowledge of the flow field defines the extent of the near field mixing zone. The near field solution is coupled into an intermediate field theory. In this region turbulent lateral entrainment, inertia and bottom friction are the governing mechanisms of the flow, and the mixed flow behaves like a two dimensional friction jet. An integral model is formulated and solved numerically. The model predictions of induced temperature rises, velocities, plume widths enable comparisons of the overall effectiveness of different heat dissipation schemes. A model for calculating the near field dilution and plume trajectory of a unidirectional diffuser discharging into a perpendicular crossflow is formulated and solved. The phenomenon of heat recirculation from the far field is ascertained in the laboratory and a semi-empirical theory is developed to evaluate the potential temperature buildup due to far field recirculation. A comprehensive set of laboratory experiments have been carried out for a wide range of diffuser and ambient design conditions. The model is validated against the experimental results of this study as well as those of hydraulic scale model studies by other investigators. The analytical and experimental insights gained in this study will aid future numerical modelling efforts and in better design of physical scale models. The principal results are applied to establish general design guidelines for diffusers operating in coastal regions. The ecological implications of the model predictions are discussed.

An examination of the use of probability modeling for the analysis of interfuel substitution in residential fuel demand

2019-04-09T16:17:55Z

An examination of the use of probability modeling for the analysis of interfuel substitution in residential fuel demand Hartman, Raymond Steve; Hollyer, Mark R.

The supply of North Sea oil

2019-04-12T08:36:58Z

The supply of North Sea oil Eckbo, Paul Leo; M.I.T. World Oil Project. Supply Analysis Group. This paper represents a collective effort by the Supply Analysis Group of the M.I.T. World Oil Project and was partly supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant no. SIA75-00739.

A uniform economic valuation methodology for solar photovoltaic applications competing in a utility environment

2019-04-09T16:42:45Z

A uniform economic valuation methodology for solar photovoltaic applications competing in a utility environment Carpenter, Paul R.; Tabors, Richard D. The question of how the economic benefits of weather-dependent electric generation technologies should be measured is addressed, with specific reference to dispersed, user-owned photovoltaic systems. The approach to photovoltaic R&D investment that has historically been practiced by the Federal Government is described in order to demonstrate the need for an economic value measure. Two methods presently in common use, busbar energy costs and total systems costs, are presented and their strengths and weaknesses highlighted. A methodology is then presented which measures the "worth" of a system to a user and the implications of this analysis for R&D investment are discussed. Finally, a simple simulation model of a photovoltaic residence is designed which demonstrates the use of the suggested methodology.

An analysis of exposure panel data collected at Millstone Point, Connecticut

2019-04-12T08:36:57Z

An analysis of exposure panel data collected at Millstone Point, Connecticut Brown, Russell Thomas; Moore, Stephen Fesler. Published jointly by Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Fuel cycle optimization of thorium and uranium fueled PWR systems

2019-04-12T08:37:06Z

Fuel cycle optimization of thorium and uranium fueled PWR systems Garel, Keith Courtnay; Driscoll, Michael J. The burnup neutronics of uniform PWR lattices are examined with respect to reduction of uranium ore requirements with an emphasis on variation of the fuel-to-moderator ratio (lattice pitch at constant fuel pin diameter) and the use of thorium. Fuel cycles using all combinations of the major fissile (U-235, U-233, Pu) and fertile (U-238, Th) species are examined. The LEOPARD code and prescriptions developed from a linear reactivity model are used to determine initial core and annual makeup fissile requirements for input into an in-house, simple, systems model, MASFLO-2, which calculates ore (and separative work) requirements per GWeyr for growing, declining, or finite-life nuclear electric systems. For low growth scenarios drier lattices are favored, and the thorium fuel cycle requires as much as 23% less ore than a comparably optimized uranium cycle with full recycle. For unmodified lattices, the thorium fuel cycle with full recycle exhibits long term uranium ore savings of 17% over the comparable uranium cycle with full recycle. For rapidly growing systems, drier lattices, and those using thorium, are less attractive because of their high startup inventories. Thus the introduction of thorium may increase ore and separative work requirements in the short term but will more than repay the ore investment in the very long term. Very little improvement was achieved by varying fuel pin diameter at a given fuel-to-moderator ratio, but itwas found to be slightly advantageous to recycle plutonium (or U-233) into dedicated reactors having individually optimized lattices: a strategy which may also be attractive for safeguards purposes. Originally presented as the first author's thesis, (Ph.D.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1978.

Solar Photovoltaic Technology: Current Processes And Future Options

2019-04-12T08:37:05Z

Solar Photovoltaic Technology: Current Processes And Future Options Bottaro, Drew; Moscowitz, Jacob

Improvement of the environmental and economic characteristics of the rotary cooling tower

2019-04-11T04:57:35Z

Improvement of the environmental and economic characteristics of the rotary cooling tower MIT Energy Laboratory; Valenzuela Davila, Javier Alberto Heat Transfer Lab report ; no. 80047-99

Small scale energy activities in India and Bangladesh : trip reports, March 17-31, 1977 and April 3-14, 1977

2019-04-12T08:37:04Z

Small scale energy activities in India and Bangladesh : trip reports, March 17-31, 1977 and April 3-14, 1977 Smith, Douglas Virgil

Technical change in the primary metals industry

2019-04-12T08:37:03Z

Technical change in the primary metals industry Wills, John

The GMIS 2 architecture

2019-04-12T08:36:56Z

The GMIS 2 architecture Lamb, Jerry; Selinger, Robert; Chat Yu Lam. 23 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm.

The future of nuclear power in the developing countries

2019-04-11T04:57:34Z

The future of nuclear power in the developing countries Strout, Alan M.

DRIFT : a numerical simulation solution for cooling tower drift eliminator performance

2019-04-12T08:36:56Z

DRIFT : a numerical simulation solution for cooling tower drift eliminator performance Chan, Joseph Kwok-Kwong; Golay, Michael Warren A method for the analysis of the performance of standard industrial evaporative cooling tower drift eliminators using numerical simulation methods is reported. The simulation methods make use of the computer code SOLASUR as a subroutine of the computer code DRIFT to calculate the two dimensional laminar flow velocity field and pressure loss in a drift eliminator geometry. This information is then used in the main program to obtain the eliminator collection efficiency by performing trajectory calculations for droplet's of a given size by a fourth' order Runge-Kutta numerical method. Topical report for Task #3 of the Waste Heat Management Research Program

Cartel pricing and the structure of the world bauxite market

2019-04-10T18:39:59Z

Cartel pricing and the structure of the world bauxite market Pindyck, Robert S. Prepared for the Ford Foundation World Commodities Conference, Airlie, Virginia, March 18, 1977 under National Science Foundation Grant # GSF SIA75-00739

Solar energy dehumidification experiment on the Citicorp Center building : final report

2019-04-12T08:36:47Z

Solar energy dehumidification experiment on the Citicorp Center building : final report The technical and economic feasibility of using solar energy to reduce conventional energy consumption of a large urban commercial building were studied in depth. Specifically, solar assisted dehumidification of ventillation air to reduce conventional air conditioning requirements for the Citicorp Center in New York City was investigated. A detailed computer simulation of yearly operation was made on an hourly basis using New York City temperature, humidity and solar data. Several system configurations were examined and were defined each operating in its most efficient fashion. It was found that maximum energy savings was achieved by optimizing the operation of the conventional system. Maximum energy savings could be achieved by the following, in order of decreasing impact: optimization of the operation of the conventional system, use of additional conventional equipment for energy savings, and use of the solar assisted system. NSF/RA-760003 Prepared for National Science Foundation, RANN/Research Applied to National Needs under Grant no. PTP-75-05156

Energy conservation at the Purnell School

2019-04-10T16:37:26Z

Energy conservation at the Purnell School Jones, William J William J.; Meyer, James Wagner

Comparative evaluation of cooling tower drift eliminator performance

2019-04-12T07:24:26Z

Comparative evaluation of cooling tower drift eliminator performance Chan, Joseph Kwok-Kwong; Golay, Michael W. The performance of standard industrial evaporative cooling tower drift eliminators is analyzed using experiments and numerical simulations. The experiments measure the droplet size spectra at the inlet and outlet of the eliminator with a laser light scattering technique. From these measured spectra, the collection efficiency is deduced as a function of droplet size. The numerical simulations use the computer code SOLASUR as a subroutine of the computer code DRIFT to calculate the two-dimensional laminar flow velocity field and pressure drop in a drift eliminator. The SOLASUR subroutine sets up either no-slip or freeslip boundary conditions at the rigid eliminator boundaries. This flow field is used by the main program to calculate the eliminator collection efficiency by performing trajectory calculations for droplets of a given size with a fourth-order Runge-Kutta Numerical method. The experimental results are in good agreement with the collection efficiencies calculated with no-slip boundary conditions. The pressure drop data for the eliminators is measured with an electronic manometer. There is good agreement between the measured and calculated pressure losses. The results show that both particle collection efficiency and pressure loss increase as the eliminator geometry becomes more complex, and as the flowrate through the eliminator increases. Originally presented as the author's thesis, (Ph.D.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1977.

Advanced wet-dry cooling tower concept

2019-04-12T08:25:37Z

Advanced wet-dry cooling tower concept Snyder, Troxell Kimmel; Bentley, Jeffrey; Giebler, Martin; Glicksman, Leon R.; Rohsenow, Warren M. The purpose of this years' work has been to test and analyze the new dry cooling tower surface previously developed. The model heat transfer test apparatus built last year has been instrumented for temperature, humidity and flow measurement and performance has been measured under a variety of operating conditions. Tower Tests showed approximately 40-50% of the total energy transfer as taking place due to evaporation. This can be compared to approximately 80 to 85% for a conventional wet cooling tower. Comparison of the model tower test results with those of a computer simulation has demonstrated the validity of that simulation and its use as a design tool. Computer predictions have been made for a full-size tower system operating at several locations. Experience with this counterflow model tower has suggested that several design problems may be avoided by blowing the cooling air horizontally through the packing section. This crossflow concept was built from the previous counterflow apparatus and included the design and fabrication of new packing plates. Instrumentation and testing of the counterflow model produced data with an average experimental error of 10%. These results were compared to the predictions of a computer model written for the crossflow configuration. In 14 test runs the predicted total heat transfer differed from the measured total heat transfer by no more than 8% with most runs coming well within 5%. With the computer analogy's validity established, it may now be used to help predict the performance of fullscale wet-dry towers. Thesis. 1977. M.S.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Mechanical Engineering.

Some implications and applications of a new oxidant control strategy

2019-04-12T07:24:25Z

Some implications and applications of a new oxidant control strategy Iverach, David Prepared under National Science Foundation Grant no. OEP 76-00284.

Alternative electrical energy sources for Maine

2019-09-12T16:28:44Z

Alternative electrical energy sources for Maine Jones, William J.; Ruane, M. Prepared for the Central Maine Power Company Summary report.--Appendix A. Glaser, C. and Ruane, M. Conversion of biomass.--Appendix B. Jones, W. J. [et al.]. Conservation.--Appendix C. Waterflow, A. Geothermal energy conversion.--Appendix D. Ruane, M. Ocean thermal energy conversion.--Appendix E. Jones, W. J. Fuel cells.--Appendix F. Geary, J. and Jones, W. J. Solar energy conversion.--Appendix G. Ruane, M. Conversion of solid wastes.--Appendix H. Ruane, M. Storage of energy.--Appendix I. Mays, J. Wave energy conversion.--Appendix J. Mays, J. Ocean and riverine current energy conversion.--Appendix K. Labuszewski, T. Wind energy conversion.--Appendix L. Gruhl, J. Environmental impacts.

Preliminary analysis of Carter’s energy conservation plan with respect to New England issues

2019-04-12T07:24:18Z

Preliminary analysis of Carter’s energy conservation plan with respect to New England issues Donovan, John J.

The comparison of available data on PWR assembly thermal behavior with analytical predictions

2019-04-12T07:24:17Z

The comparison of available data on PWR assembly thermal behavior with analytical predictions Liu, Jack S. H.; Todreas, Neil E. The comparison of available data with analytical predictions has been illustrated in this report. Since few data on the cross flow are available, a study of parameters in the transverse momentum equation were performed to assess the sensitivity of results to their assumed values. It is confirmed that effects of these parameters on the overall results are not significant under PWR operating conditions. Data on subchannel properties of quality and mass flux were also assessed. From the data comparisons, it is evident that COBRA which is the tool of the simplified method can successfully predict the PWR normal operating conditions and cannot predict the trend under bulk quality conditions (e>0.02). "PB-299 393." Topical report for Task #3 of the Nuclear Reactor Safety Research Program sponsored by New England Electric System, Northeast Utilities Service Co. under the MIT Energy Laboratory Electric Power Program.

The comparison of available data on PWR assembly thermal behavior with analytical predictions

2019-04-12T08:25:33Z

The comparison of available data on PWR assembly thermal behavior with analytical predictions Liu, J.; Todreas, Neil E. "PB-299 393." Topical report for Task #3 of the Nuclear Reactor Safety Research Program sponsored by New England Electric System, Northeast Utilities Service Co. under the MIT Energy Laboratory Electric Power Program.

Uranium dependence and the proliferation problem

2019-04-12T07:24:15Z

Uranium dependence and the proliferation problem Jacoby, Henry D.

Transient thermal analysis of PWR’s by a single-pass procedure using a simplified nodal layout

2019-04-10T20:19:44Z

Transient thermal analysis of PWR’s by a single-pass procedure using a simplified nodal layout Liu, Jack S. H.; Todreas, Neil E. PWR accident conditions and analysis methods have been reviewed. Limitations of the simplified method with respect to analysis of these accident conditions are drawn and two transients ( loss of coolant flow, seized rotor) identified as candidates for analysis by this method. These transients have been examined in detail by this one-stage approach (the simplified method). It is concluded that the steady state one-stage simplified method can be applied to the above two transient conditions. Draft: June 1977, final: Feb. 1979.

Technology options to meet energy demand and the economic impact on Black America

2019-04-12T08:25:28Z

Technology options to meet energy demand and the economic impact on Black America Jones, William J. Talk given at the Fourth Annual Meeting of the National Organization for the Professional Advancement of Black Chemists and Chemical Engineers.

Regulating the automobile

2019-04-12T07:24:13Z

Regulating the automobile Heywood, John B.; Jacoby, Henry D.; Linden, Lawrence H.; Margolis, Howard; Iverach, David; Jacobs, E. Allen; Lerman, Frank; Martin, Michael K.

A regression approach for Zircaloy-2 in-reactor creep constitutive equations

2019-04-12T08:25:28Z

A regression approach for Zircaloy-2 in-reactor creep constitutive equations Liu, Yung-Yuan; Bement, Arden Lee Typical data analysis procedures used in developing current phenomenological in-reactor creep equations for Zircaloy cladding materials are examined. It is found that the data normalization assumptions and the curve fitting techniques generally adopted in these procedures can make the prediction of creep strain rate from the resulting equations highly questionable. Multiple regression analysis performed on a set of carefully selected Zr-2 in-reactor creep data on the basis of comparable as fabricated metallurgical conditions indicates that models of the form e = Aaynm exp (-Q/RT) can give significant account for the data. Both regression statistics and residual plots have provided strong evidences for the significance of the regression equations.-- ABSTRACT OF THE ADDENDUM The addendum of this report contains the results and discussions of the analysis we made on our revised Zircaloy-2 in-reactor creep data. Although fewer creep rate data were used, much of the same general conclusions can be made as we did previously. The differences between the final recommended regression Zircaloy-2 in-reactor creep equations in the report and the addendum are primarily those of the estimated coefficients. The starting model equations continue to provide excellent correlations for the creep strain rate data. Our attempt to verify the additivity of thermal and irradiation creep components directly from the creep data set show that there is little merit in using a composite formula made up by the above two components for ranges covered by the test parameters. This statement should not be looked upon as a denial to such a treatment, however, especially in situations of combinations of high , a and T where changes in dominating deformation mechanism are possible. At present, we do not have reliable data in those regimes. Special report for Task 2 of the Fuel Performance Program.

Optimal exploration and production of a nonrenewable resource

2019-04-12T07:24:06Z

Optimal exploration and production of a nonrenewable resource Pindyck, Robert S. Earlier studies of exhaustible resource production and pricing usually assume that there is a fixed reserve base that can be exploited over time. In reality there is no "fixed" reserve base (in an economically meaningful sense), since as price rises, additional proved and potential reserves become economical. Here we view a resource like oil as being "nonrenewable" rather than "exhaustible." There is a proved reserve base which is the basis for production, and exploratory activity is the means of increasing or maintaining this proved reserve base. "Potential reserves" are unlimited, but as depletion ensues, given amounts of exploratory activity result in ever-smaller discoveries. Thus resource producers must determine simultaneously their optimal rate of exploratory activity and their optimal rate of production. Optimal trajectories for exploratory activity and production are determined for both competitive and monopolistic producers, and are applied to a simple model of oil production in the Permian region of Texas. This report was partly sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI). Neither EPRI, members of EPRI, nor the Massachusetts Institute of Tecnnology, nor any person acting on behalf of either; a. Makes any warranty or representation, express or implied, with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the information contained in this report, or that the use of any information, apparatus, method, or process disclosed in this report may not infringe privately owned rights; or b. Assumes any liabilities with respect to the use of, or for damages resulting from the use of, any information, apparatus, method, or process disclosed in this report. This work was supported by the RANN Division of the National Science Foundation, under Grant # NSF SIA-00739, and by the Electric Power Research Institute, under Grant # RP871-1.

Computer-aided industrial process design; the ASPEN Project. First annual report for the period.

2019-04-12T08:10:06Z

Computer-aided industrial process design; the ASPEN Project. First annual report for the period. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Energy Laboratory. Work during the first year of this contract concentrated on acquiring the project staff, development of a prototype simulator, the simulation of three coal conversion processes, a survey of software for acquisition, the development of a preliminary physical property subsystem, and the setting up of an advisory committee consisting of industrial government and university representatives. The prototype simulator, PLEXSYS II has been completed and is now being used in the simulation of the IGT HYGAS process, the Conoco CO2 Acceptor process and the Exxon Donor Solvent process. Simulations of the HYGAS process and the CO2 Acceptor process will be completed in August, 1977. Negotiations are under way with Exxon to release the proprietary data necessary to complete the simulation of the Donor Solvent process. The preliminary physical property subsystem incorporating properties of coal is being used in conducting these simulation studies. The software survey has been completed. The programs surveyed are now being evaluated for possible acquisitions. Negotiations will be conducted with holders of proprietary software for release of their programs to the ASPEN project. An advisory committee, consisting of representatives from 28 companies, 8 universities and 6 government laboratories has been formed to aid in the design of the system. A list of seven reports and/or papers published during the year is included. Vols. for 1976/77- issued as MIT-2295T9-4, etc.

Oil cargo preference legislation : its potential impact on New England

2019-04-12T08:09:58Z

Oil cargo preference legislation : its potential impact on New England Barker, Joseph L. 21, [58] leaves : ill. ; 28 cm.

Energy policy : what is really at issue

2019-04-10T19:54:47Z

Energy policy : what is really at issue Ball, Benjamin Calhoun

Ocean thermal energy conversion plants : experimental and analytical study of mixing and recirculation

2019-04-12T14:50:39Z

Ocean thermal energy conversion plants : experimental and analytical study of mixing and recirculation Jirka, Gerhard H.; Johnson, R. Peter; Fry, David J.; Harleman, Donald R.F. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is a method of generating power using the vertical temperature gradient of the tropical ocean as an energy source. Experimental and analytical studies have been carried out to determine the characteristics of the temperature and velocity fields induced in the surrounding ocean by the operation of an OTEC plant. The condition of recirculation, i.e. the reentering of mixed discharge water back into the plant intake, was of particular interest because of its adverse effect on plant efficiency. The studies were directed at the mixed discharge concept, in which the evaporator and condenser water flows are exhausted jointly at the approximate level of the ambient ocean thermocline. The OTEC plant was of the symmetric spar-buoy type with radial or separate discharge configurations. A distinctly stratified ocean with uniform, ambient current velocity was assumed. The following conclusions are obtained: The recirculation potential of an OTEC plant in a stagnant ocean is determined by the interaction of the jet discharge zone and a double sink return flow (one sink being the evaporator intake, the other the jet entrainment). This process occurs in the near-field of an OTEC plant up to a distance of about three times the ocean mixed layer depth. The stratified internal flow beyond this zone has little effect on recirculation, as have small ocean current velocities (up to 0.10 m/s prototype). Conditions which are conducive to recirculation are characterized by high discharge velocities and large plant flow rates. A design formula is proposed which determines whether recirculation would occur or not as a function of plant design and ocean conditions. On the basis of these results, it can be concluded that a 100 MW OTEC plant with the mixed discharge mode can operate at a typical candidate ocean site without incurring any discharge recirculation. Also issued as Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics. Report no.231. Prepared by the Energy Laboratory in association with Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics.

Oil supply forecasting : a disaggregated process approach

2019-04-12T08:25:39Z

Oil supply forecasting : a disaggregated process approach Eckbo, Paul Leo; Jacoby, Henry D.; Smith, James Lee This paper represents a collective effort by the Supply Analysis Group of the M.I.T. World Oil Project which is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant no. SIA75-00739.

Solar energy and conservation at St. Mark’s School

2019-04-12T08:17:30Z

Solar energy and conservation at St. Mark’s School Jones, William J.; Meyer, James W. This report is a result of a request to investigate the possibility of employing solar energy at a residential secondary school to reduce energy costs. Our approach was to explore this possibility in the context of a more general survey of opportunities to conserve energy (in particular, fuel)at the school. Our purpose was more to illustrate how to go about an appraisal of conservation opportunities plus implementation and evaluation of the most productive conservation measures, than a rigorous examination of the facility with detailed instructions on how to take care of specific problems. A large number of actions that would result in net energy cost savings considerably greater than could be realized from solar systems were discovered. For a solar application, a domestic hot water system,supplementing that heated bytankless coils in oil burning furnaces,has the greatest potential for significant return on investment. The school's total utility system (total energy, co-generation) meets all electrical and steam needs with the exception of the electric power required for one building. A heat recovery system on the diesel engines for the electric generators furnishes a sizeable portion of the steam. Areas discussed in detail are: (1) optimization of the efficiency of oil fueled residential heating furnaces; (2) optimized operation of a total energy system; (3) lighting, insulation, air infiltration control; (4) heat management, scheduling and control. A methodology for preparing energy audits, energy flow charts and procedures for the evaluation of the need for the amounts of energy consumed for each individual purpose are also given. The importance of considering the application of solar energy in the broader conservation context is emphasized. ca. 200 p. in various pagings : ill. ; 28 cm

Solar energy and conservation at St. Mark's School

2019-04-11T09:10:23Z

Solar energy and conservation at St. Mark's School Jones, William J.; Meyer, James Wagner This report is a result of a request to investigate the possibility of employing solar energy at a residential secondary school to reduce energy costs. Our approach was to explore this possibility in the context of a more general survey of opportunities to conserve energy (in particular, fuel) at the school. Our purpose was more to illustrate how to go about an appraisal of conservation opportunities plus implementation and evaluation of the most productive conservation measures, than a rigorous examination of the facility with detailed instructions on how to take care of specific problems. A large number of actions that would result in net energy cost savings considerably greater than could be realized from solar systems were discovered. For a solar application, a domestic hot water system,supplementing that heated bytankless coils in oil burning furnaces,has the greatest potential for significant return on investment. The school's total utility system (total energy, co-generation) meets all electrical and steam needs with the exception of the electric power required for one building. A heat recovery system on the diesel engines for the electric generators furnishes a sizeable portion of the steam. Areas discussed in detail are: (1) optimization of the efficiency of oil fueled residential heating furnaces; (2) optimized operation of a total energy system; (3) lighting, insulation, air infiltration control; (4) heat management, scheduling and control. A methodology for preparing energy audits, energy flow charts and procedures for the evaluation of the need for the amounts of energy consumed for each individual purpose are also given. The importance of considering the application of solar energy in the broader conservation context is emphasized.

Externality valuation versus systemwide analysis : identifying cost and emissions reduction strategies for electric service

2019-04-12T08:25:54Z

Externality valuation versus systemwide analysis : identifying cost and emissions reduction strategies for electric service "January 1992."; Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-22).

Finding and developing costs in the USA 1945-1985

2019-04-12T07:24:40Z

Finding and developing costs in the USA 1945-1985 "Revision of 86-008WP"--T.p.; Includes bibliographical references.

Fighting the last war : preparations for the next oil crisis

2019-04-12T08:25:54Z

Fighting the last war : preparations for the next oil crisis "This is a revised version of a paper presented to the 1986 Midwest Political Science Association Meeting, April 10, 1986."--p. [1].; Includes bibliographical references.

Estimating energy consumption from cross-country relationships

2019-04-12T07:24:39Z

Estimating energy consumption from cross-country relationships Includes bibliographical references.

The hidden world trade in energy

2019-04-12T07:24:39Z

The hidden world trade in energy Includes bibliographical references.

Government intervention in production and incentives theory : a review of recent contributions

2019-04-12T08:25:53Z

Government intervention in production and incentives theory : a review of recent contributions Includes bibliographical references.

Quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system

2019-04-12T08:25:53Z

Quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system Includes bibliographical references.

Managerial switching and myopia

2019-04-12T07:24:38Z

Managerial switching and myopia "Incomplete and very preliminary draft. October 16, 1987."--3rd prelim page.; Includes bibliographical references.

The excess co-movement of commodity prices

2019-04-09T16:07:37Z

The excess co-movement of commodity prices Includes bibliographical references.

Repeated auctions of incentive contracts, investment and bidding parity : with an application to takeovers

2019-04-12T13:39:23Z

Repeated auctions of incentive contracts, investment and bidding parity : with an application to takeovers Includes bibliographical references.

Discounting rules for risky assets

2019-04-12T13:39:22Z

Discounting rules for risky assets Includes bibliographical references.

Numerical methods for contingent claims analysis of investment decisions

2019-04-09T17:12:36Z

Numerical methods for contingent claims analysis of investment decisions Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1988.; Includes bibliographical references.

Price control in long term contracts : the case of coal

2019-04-12T07:24:49Z

Price control in long term contracts : the case of coal "Revised March, 1987."--T.p.; Includes bibliographical references.

The economic organization of nuclear plant projects : some cross-national comparisons

2019-04-09T18:36:52Z

The economic organization of nuclear plant projects : some cross-national comparisons Includes bibliographical references.

A mathematical programming/economic equilibrium model for the quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system

2019-04-12T07:24:48Z

A mathematical programming/economic equilibrium model for the quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system Includes bibliographical references.

The value of flexibility

2019-04-09T15:33:09Z

The value of flexibility "Revised: March 1986."--3rd prelim. page.; Includes bibliographical references.

Price discrimination and patent policy

2019-04-09T18:58:53Z

Price discrimination and patent policy "September, 1986. Current version: March 15, 1988."--3rd prelim. page.; Includes bibliographical references.

Exploration in competitive nonrenewable resource markets : an extension of Pindyck's perfect foresight model

2019-04-12T08:25:59Z

Exploration in competitive nonrenewable resource markets : an extension of Pindyck's perfect foresight model Includes bibliographical references.

World oil : availability and price the next ten years

2019-04-12T13:39:31Z

World oil : availability and price the next ten years "This report was prepared as a background paper for presentation and discussion at the Asian Development Bank's Regional Meeting on Energy Policy held on December 11-12, 1986 in Manila."--T.p.; Includes bibliographical references.

Oil producing countries' discount rates

2019-04-10T20:24:56Z

Oil producing countries' discount rates Includes bibliographical references.

Mineral depletion, with special reference to petroleum

2019-04-10T07:58:50Z

Mineral depletion, with special reference to petroleum "Revised May 1988."--T.p.; Includes bibliographical references.

The competitive floor to world oil prices

2019-04-12T08:25:59Z

The competitive floor to world oil prices "Revised July 1986."--T.p.; Includes bibliographical references.

Interdependencies between operating options

2019-04-12T08:25:59Z

Interdependencies between operating options Includes bibliographical references.

Valuing the flexibility of flexible manufacturing systems

2019-04-12T08:25:58Z

Valuing the flexibility of flexible manufacturing systems Includes bibliographical references.

A review of the state-level advanced utility simulation model

2019-04-12T07:24:46Z

A review of the state-level advanced utility simulation model "December 1985, Revised February 1986."; Includes bibliographical references.

Molecular simulation of gas hydrates : final report to Norsk Hydro

2019-04-12T07:24:45Z

Molecular simulation of gas hydrates : final report to Norsk Hydro Series statement from publisher's list.; Includes bibliographical references.

The effects of regulation on the performance of nuclear power in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany

2019-04-12T08:25:58Z

The effects of regulation on the performance of nuclear power in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technology and Policy Program, 1986.; Series from publisher's list.; Includes bibliographical references.

A numerical comparison of international light water reactor performance, 1975-1984

2019-04-12T07:24:44Z

A numerical comparison of international light water reactor performance, 1975-1984 Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1986.; Series from publisher's list.; Includes bibliographical references.

Predicting circulation and dispersion near coastal power plants : applications using models TEA and ELA

2019-04-12T08:25:57Z

Predicting circulation and dispersion near coastal power plants : applications using models TEA and ELA Includes bibliographical references.

Continued development of nodal methods for nuclear reactor analysis

2019-04-12T08:25:57Z

Continued development of nodal methods for nuclear reactor analysis Final report;; Includes bibliographical references.

Extending the life of nuclear power plants : technical and institutional issues

2019-04-12T08:25:56Z

Extending the life of nuclear power plants : technical and institutional issues Includes bibliographical references.

Economics of seasonal gas substitution in coal- and oil-fired power plants

2019-04-12T07:24:43Z

Economics of seasonal gas substitution in coal- and oil-fired power plants Includes bibliographical references.

Use of source apportionment model for designing acid deposition mitigating strategies in Massachusetts

2019-04-12T07:24:43Z

Use of source apportionment model for designing acid deposition mitigating strategies in Massachusetts Includes bibliographical references.

Sinterable ceramic powders from laser-heated gases

2019-04-12T07:24:42Z

Sinterable ceramic powders from laser-heated gases Final report;; Includes bibliographical references.

Field analysis of groundwater for volatile organic contaminants using on-column aqueous injection capillary gas chromatography

2019-04-12T07:24:42Z

Field analysis of groundwater for volatile organic contaminants using on-column aqueous injection capillary gas chromatography Includes bibliographical references.

Feasibility and cost of converting oil- and coal-fired utility boilers to intermittent use of natural gas

2019-04-12T08:25:55Z

Feasibility and cost of converting oil- and coal-fired utility boilers to intermittent use of natural gas Includes bibliographical references.

Western Europe natural gas trade : final report

2019-04-12T07:24:41Z

Western Europe natural gas trade : final report Final report;; Series from publisher's list.; Includes bibliographical references.

Controlling acid deposition by seasonal gas substitution in coal- and oil-fired power plants

2019-04-10T16:41:38Z

Controlling acid deposition by seasonal gas substitution in coal- and oil-fired power plants Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1986.; Includes bibliographical references.

East Asia/Pacific natural gas trade : final report

2019-04-09T17:34:06Z

East Asia/Pacific natural gas trade : final report Final report;; Series from publisher's list.; Includes bibliographical references.

Low prices or self-sufficiency : the conflicting goals of national energy policy

2019-04-10T20:57:21Z

Low prices or self-sufficiency : the conflicting goals of national energy policy Hall, Robert Ernest; Pindyck, Robert S.

The U.S. supersonic transport program, 1961-1971 : an examination in search of lessons for current energy technology commercialization projects

2019-04-10T07:23:18Z

The U.S. supersonic transport program, 1961-1971 : an examination in search of lessons for current energy technology commercialization projects Bugos, Beverly Jeane Prepared for the United States Energy Research and Development Administration under Contract no. E(49-18) 2295, Task order 6

The U.S. Government's automotive safety program : a preliminary examination

2019-04-12T08:38:50Z

The U.S. Government's automotive safety program : a preliminary examination Rothberg, David L.

The U.S. government synthetic rubber program, 1941-1955 : an examination in search of lessons for current energy technology commercialization projects

2019-04-10T20:57:00Z

The U.S. government synthetic rubber program, 1941-1955 : an examination in search of lessons for current energy technology commercialization projects Samuelson, Paul Reid Prepared for the United States Energy Research and Development Administration under Contract no. E(40-18) 2295, Task order 6

New Zealand electricity supply

2019-04-12T08:38:50Z

New Zealand electricity supply Boshier, John F.

Sensitivity analysis of the Brookhaven energy system optimization model

2019-04-12T08:38:53Z

Sensitivity analysis of the Brookhaven energy system optimization model Shapiro, Jeremy F.; White, David Edwin; Wood, David O.

International comparisons of the residential demand for energy : a preliminary analysis

2019-04-11T02:45:01Z

International comparisons of the residential demand for energy : a preliminary analysis Pindyck, Robert S. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

A note of residential heating oil inventory policies

2019-04-12T08:38:52Z

A note of residential heating oil inventory policies Fischer, Walter P. The question whether present inventory policies of residential heating oil consumers are stable or likely to change as a result of higher oil prices or a shortage situation is investigated on the basis of a model which explains heating energy cost as a function of a consumer's tank capacity, the size of oil deliveries, his choice of a safety level of oil in his tank, and on the basis of data for Massachusetts. For the most common situation of a consumer who owns a 270 gallon tank and consumes 1000 to 2000 gallons per heating season, the result is: Unless the consumer expect substantial fluctuations in the price of oil to occur during each year throughout the depreciation period of the tank, there is little incentive to change the present inventory policy: One 270 gallon tank and the avoidance of policies which reduce the delivery size through partial fills or a large safety level, are stable policies. This work was conducted in part under an M.I.T./IBM Joint Study in association with the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory, the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management's Center for Information Systems Research, and the NEEMIS Project

Applied solar energy at the Shiraz Technical Institute

2019-04-11T02:45:00Z

Applied solar energy at the Shiraz Technical Institute Meyer, James Wagner Factors affecting the application of solar energy and the preliminary design of a solar system to supplement the service hot water system at the Shiraz Technical Institute are described. In addition to the solar energy demonstration, the educational benefits of selected solar projects and laboratory experiments are discussed. An effective, yet expandable, initial installation can be made at reasonably low cost because advantage is taken of architectural features of the buildings and the nature of the conventional service hot water heating system. Opportunities for the future are also briefly considered.

Health/environmental consequences of energy conversion alternatives : a bibliography

2019-04-12T08:38:52Z

Health/environmental consequences of energy conversion alternatives : a bibliography Gruhl, Jim

Report on computer usage of accounts under the IBM/M.I.T. joint study agreement

2019-04-11T02:44:59Z

Report on computer usage of accounts under the IBM/M.I.T. joint study agreement NEEMIS Staff, Systems Programming Group, Energy Lab Prepared in association with the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

A note on performance of VM/370 in the integration of models and databases

2019-04-11T02:44:57Z

A note on performance of VM/370 in the integration of models and databases Donovan, John J. As the proliferation of programming systems and database systems continues and, correspondingly, as the need for integrating these systems for certain applications increases, VM/370 offers a mechanism for such integration. This paper analyzes the performance of a configuration of virtual machines using VM/370 that allows for the sharing of a database system among several incompatible programs in an interactive environment. Specifically, two aspects of performance are addressed--an experimental study of the overhead cost incurred in the interface mechanisms employed, and a theoretical study of the degradation of response time due to the locking mechanisms employed. The conclusion of the experimental observations is that for sophisticated, complex accesses to the database system, the overhead costs are relatively small. The result of the theoretical study is the quantification of that degradation as a function of speeds of the database machine and the rate with which queries are made. The discussion of the practical implications of this theoretical study presents ways to improve this degradation. The observed conclusion of this work is our feeling that, for certain application areas, the benefits resulting from increased effectiveness of users outweigh the costs incurred. Prepared in association with the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

Database system approach to management decision support

2019-04-12T08:38:51Z

Database system approach to management decision support Donovan, John J. As the complexity of modern day life increases with astonishing rapidity, the complexity of the problems the policymaker must face increases at a correspondingly rapid rate. Traditional intuitive methods of decision-making are no longer adequate to deal with these complex problems. Thus systems must be developed to provide the information and analysis necessary for the decisions which must be made. We call these systems Decision Support Systems (DSS). While database systems provide a key ingredient to decision support systems, the characteristics of the problems now facing the policymaker are different from those problems to which database systems have been applied in the past. That is, the problems are usually not known in advance, they are constantly changing, and answers are needed within a short time frame. Hence, additional technologies, methodologies,and approaches must expand the traditional areas of database and operating systems research (as well as other software and hardware research) in order for them to become truly effective in supporting policymakers. This paper describes our work in this area. In indicating where future work is needed, it is a call for action as we feel that decision support systems are absolutely essential to decision makers dealing with today's complex and ever-changing problems. Specifically, the paper discusses: (1) why there exists a vital need for decision support systems; (2) examples from our work in the field of energy which make explicit the characteristics which distinguish these decision support systems from traditional operational and managerial systems; (3) how an awareness of decision support systems has evolved, including a brief review of work done by others and a statement of the computational needs of decision support systems which is consistent with contemporary technology; (4) an approach we have made to meet many of these computational needs through the development and implementation of a computational facility, GMIS (Generalized Management Information System); and (5) the application of this computational facility to a complex and important energy problem facing New England in a typical study within the NEEMIS (New England Energy Management Information System) Project. Prepared in association with the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

Review of methods for assessing the carcinogenic hazards from coal-using energy technologies

2019-04-11T02:45:07Z

Review of methods for assessing the carcinogenic hazards from coal-using energy technologies Gruhl, Jim This report contains material relevant to the development of methodologies for evaluating the cancer risks associated with atmospheric pollutants from coal combustion and conversion processes. Information is presented on methods and sources (1) of regression analyses in this field, and (2) of physically significant simulation mechanisms, including potential functional modules of such mechanisms, particularly those modules dealing with energy facility emission characterizations, atmospheric dispersion, aerochemistry, population exposure patterns, and carcinogenic dose-response studies. In addition to listings of several key references and bibliographies in these areas, there is a discussion of some of the research in progress, the urgency of the situation, and some of the barriers to the development and dissemination of timely results.

Scientific background on probabilistic air pollution dosage modeling

2019-04-12T08:39:19Z

Scientific background on probabilistic air pollution dosage modeling Gruhl, Jim

Federal support for the development of alternative automotive power systems : the general issue and the Stirling, diesel, and electric cases

2019-04-12T08:39:22Z

Federal support for the development of alternative automotive power systems : the general issue and the Stirling, diesel, and electric cases Linden, Lawrence Howard

Health implications of oil-to-coal conversion in New England power plants

2019-04-12T08:39:19Z

Health implications of oil-to-coal conversion in New England power plants Gruhl, Jim

Methanol as an automotive fuel : a summary of research in the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory

2019-04-11T02:45:10Z

Methanol as an automotive fuel : a summary of research in the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory Donnelly, Richard George

Gains to producers from the cartelization of exhaustible resources

2019-04-12T08:39:21Z

Gains to producers from the cartelization of exhaustible resources Pindyck, Robert S. The potential gains to producers from the cartelization of the world petroleum, copper, and bauxite markets are calculated under the assumption of optimal dynamic monopoly pricing of an exhaustible resource. Small quantitative models for the markets for each resource are developed that account for short-term lag adjustments in demand and supply as well as long-term resource depletion. Potential gains from the cartelization of each resource are measured by calculating optimal price trajectories under competition and under cartelization, and comparing the sums of discounted profits resulting from each. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

Systematic methodology for the comparison of environmental control technologies for coal-fired electric generation

2019-04-12T08:39:21Z

Systematic methodology for the comparison of environmental control technologies for coal-fired electric generation Gruhl, Jim This report describes work performed as a subcontract to Argonne National Laboratory's project "Environmental Control Technology for Generation of Power from Coal." The intention of thatArgonne Program is to provide an independently developed assessment of alternative environmental control technologies for coal-fired electric power generation and to develop an independently evaluated set of recommendations for future environmental control technology research, development, and demonstration programs for these processes. This report describes a probabilistic, systems analytic methodology appropriate for use in comparing the alternative control technologies. In addition to the discussions about this probabilistic framework, there are examples.of the use of the framework for comparative purposes. Information is presented on the methods and sources for making these comparisons on health effects bases, as well as the relevant economic, technological, availability, resource use, emissions, and ambient-level information. In addition, there are bibliographies of key references in the related areas.

A user's guide to the M.I.T. world energy demand data base

2019-04-11T02:45:16Z

A user's guide to the M.I.T. world energy demand data base Demand Analysis Group, M.I.T. World Oil Project Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

Radioactive waste management and regulation

2019-04-11T02:45:15Z

Radioactive waste management and regulation Willrich, Mason

Accommodation in the international capital markets and the recycling of oil funds

2019-04-11T02:45:12Z

Accommodation in the international capital markets and the recycling of oil funds Agmon, Tamir; Lessard, Donald R.; Paddock, James L. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

Oil supply forecasting using disaggregated pool analysis

2019-04-11T02:45:10Z

Oil supply forecasting using disaggregated pool analysis Supply Analysis Group, M.I.T. World Oil Project Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

Government support for the commercialization of new energy technologies : an analysis and exploration of the issues

2019-04-09T19:24:51Z

Government support for the commercialization of new energy technologies : an analysis and exploration of the issues Policy Study Group, MIT Energy Lab This report examines the issues associated with government programs proposed for the "commercialization" of new energy technologies; these programs are intended to hasten the pace at which target technologies are adopted by the private sector. The "commercial demonstration" is the principal tool used in these programs. Most previous government interventions in support of technological change have focussed on R&D and left to the private sector the decision as to adoption for commercial utilization; thus there is relatively little in the way of analysis or experience which bears direct application. The analysis is divided into four sections. First, the role of R,D&D within the structure of the national energy goals and policies is examined. The issue or "prices versus gaps" is described as a crucial difference of viewpoint concerning the role of the government in the future of the energy system. Second, the process of technological change as it occurs with respect to energy technologies is then examined for possible sources of misaligment or social and private incentives. The process is described as a series of investments. Third, correction of these sources of misalignment then becomes the goal of commercial demonstration programs as this goal and the means for attaining it are explored. Government-supported commercialization may be viewed as a subsidy to the introduction stage of the process; the circumstances under which such subsidies are likely to affect the success of the subsequent diffusion stage are addressed. The discussion then turns to the political, legal, and institutional problems. Finally, methods for the evaluation and planning of commercial demonstration programs are analyzed. The critical areas of ignorance are highlighted and comprise a research agenda for improved analytical techniques to support decisions in this area.

Pricing policies for a two-part exhaustible resource cartel: The case of OPEC

2019-04-09T16:29:52Z

Pricing policies for a two-part exhaustible resource cartel: The case of OPEC Hnyilicza, Esteban; Pindyck, Robert S. This paper examines pricing policies for OPEC under the assumption that the cartel is composed of a block of spender countries with large cash needs and a block of saver countries with little immediate need for cash and a lower rate of discount. The decision problem for the two-part cartel is embodied in a game-theoretic framework and the optimal bargaining solution is computed using results from the theory of cooperative games developed by Nash. The set of feasible bargaining points -- and the corresponding Nash solution -- is computed under two assumptions on the behavior of output shares: that they are subject to choice and that they are fixed at historical values. Our results suggest that for fixed output shares, there is little room for bargaining and the price path approximates the optimal monopoly price path. If the shares are subject to control, optimal paths depend significantly on the relative bargaining power of each block. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Economics

International diffusion of energy technology : report of a workshop held on June 2-3, 1976, at Dedham, Massachusetts

2019-04-12T08:39:20Z

International diffusion of energy technology : report of a workshop held on June 2-3, 1976, at Dedham, Massachusetts MIT Energy Lab Prepared in association with Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Electric power transmission and distribution systems : costs and their allocation

2019-04-11T02:45:39Z

Electric power transmission and distribution systems : costs and their allocation Baughman, Martin L.; Bottaro, Drew

Net energy analysis in the Energy Research and Development Administration plan

2019-04-09T19:17:44Z

Net energy analysis in the Energy Research and Development Administration plan Polenske, Karen R. Report prepared for the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory and the Office of Technology Assessment

Dynamics of petroleum industry investment in the North Sea

2019-04-12T08:39:20Z

Dynamics of petroleum industry investment in the North Sea Beall, Arthur Oren This investigation has attempted to provide acurrent estimate of the oil potential of the northern North Sea from which estimates of exploration investment, development investment, and accruing cash-flows can be derived. Current proven reserves are estimated at 29.4 billion barrels oil equivalent, of which 22.6 billion barrels are oil. Of the 59 discoveries documented, 8 can be classed as true gas accumulations. Undiscovered potential for the area of study is estimated at 24.3 billion barrels, giving a most probable ultimate recoverable reserve of 53.7 billion barrels oil equivalent. Depending on minimum commercial field size, recoverable oil reserves should vary between 33.7 and 39.2 billion barrels. Current development of 14.8 billion barrels of recoverable oil involves an estimated capital investment of $16.8 billion dollars. Peak daily production is estimated to occur in 1981 at 4.12 million barrels daily. An additional 4.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil is in various stages of evaluation and will probably be developed, yielding a total of 19.4 billion barrels of reserves and a total peak production of 4.95 million barrels per day in 1981. Capital investment is estimated at $27 billion dollars for the total. In order to develop current plus discovered plus future discoveries, private industry is estimated to require between $56 and $70 billion dollars. Most of this investment, including approximately $6 billion additional outlay for exploration, is anticipated to occur between now and 1985. Peak production of 6.58 to 7.85 million barrels per day is estimated to occur around 1986, representing a total reserve development of approximately 34.4 to 38.4 billion barrels of oil. Private industry is anticipated to earn between $30 and $56 billion dollars whereas government take, assuming a lower discount rate, is estimated to run between $83 and $222 billion dollars. Critical to this analysis are assumptions about host-government tax policy and the world price of crude oil, especially as pertaining to "marginal" North Sea fields. Utilizing an econometric model developed by the Supply Analysis Group of the M.I.T. World Oil Project, investigation of discounted cash-flow profiles for various field sizes indicates that access to crude supply and development of subsequent discoveries appear to be the primary economic incentives for continuing to operate smaller fields after peak production is obtained. Tax policy and high operating costs relative to productive capacity tend to make small fields less attractive investments. Finally, it is patently obvious that very high per-well productivity is essential for viable development of North Sea fields under current economic, political, fiscal, and technical constraints. Originally presented as the author's thesis, (M.S.) in the M.I.T. Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

Improvement of the environmental and economic characteristics of cooling towers : [Part 1] The periodic cooling tower - small scale, full scale, and surface roughening tests

2019-04-11T02:45:38Z

Improvement of the environmental and economic characteristics of cooling towers : [Part 1] The periodic cooling tower - small scale, full scale, and surface roughening tests Hon, Pou Cheong This report describes research for the past year on methods to enhance the environmental and economic performance of dry cooling towers. The work has concentrated on dry cooling towers utilizing periodic water to air heat exchangers. Periodic towers have sheet metal discs partially submerged in hot, power plant condenser effluent. As the discs rotate, the discs alternately absorb heat from the effluent and discharge heat to the air. The means of heat transfer on the air side can be either evaporative and/or convective, depending upon the amount of effluent carried into the air side on the surface of the plates. An oil layer, floated on the water's surface, has been shown to be effective in eliminating water carry-over to the air side. The advantages of the periodic tower lie in the low cost of the discs and the ability to operate dry . A periodic tower should be significantly less expensive than a conventional dry tower fabricated with finned tubes. Further, since the periodic tower can also operate wet, by removing the oil film, the high capacity losses incurred during warm months by conventional dry towers can be eliminated. In the past year, tests on a 20 inch model of the periodic tower indicated that at operational speeds of the full sized disc, no noticeable churning of the oil layer ocurred. Heat transfer rates measured with the 20 inch model were 20 percent higher than predicted by an approximate analysis. Finally, silicone oils' low vapor pressure make them superior to hydrocarbon oils on the basis of evaporation rates, but their higher costs and possible ecological impact necessitates a closer look at hydrocarbon oils. Construction of the full scale test facility is complete. Shaped, rigid five foot diameter discs have been designed, fabricated, and assembled into an initial test module. Instrumentation for heat transfer tests is also complete; including instrumentation for measuring disc temperatures, and both air and water flow rates and temperatures. A parametric study of the oil film thickness on the air side of the test module has been completed. Measured thicknesses were 20 percent less than that previously predicted. This thinner oil layer means an increase in the disc heat transfer. A test apparatus to study the further enhancement of disc performance by surface roughening has been constructed, instrumented and calibrated. The apparatus has reproduced experimental friction factor and heat transfer coefficient curves for flat plates, and will be used to evaluate enhancement as a function of rib shape, size, spacings and Reynold's number. Visits to several architectural engineers across the country were made with representatives of Air Preheater Company to gage their acceptance of the rotary concept. All felt that if the reliability of the rotary concept could be demonstrated and the costs were less than equivalent conventional dry towers, the rotary desing would be the preferred choice. Based on these findings, Air Preheater is planning to do design and cost studies of the rotary concept for the coming year. Prepared in association with Heat Transfer Laboratory, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

Hydrothermal modeling for optimum temperature control : an estimation-theoretic approach

2019-04-12T08:39:25Z

Hydrothermal modeling for optimum temperature control : an estimation-theoretic approach Schrader, Bradley Philip; Moore, Stephen Fesler A short-term temperature forecasting (STF) system is proposed to predict and control plant intake and discharge temperatures at Salem Harbor Electric Generating Station. It is desired to minimize receiving-water (i.e., intake-water) temperatures during peak power demand periods, in order to minimize the cost of complying with the maximum discharge water temperature limit. This study addresses the hydrothermal modeling requirements of an STF system. An important element of an STF system is a predictive model of plant intake water temperatures. For application to Salem Harbor Station, strict model performance criteria exist, defining a model development problem: Develop a simple model to predict plant intake water temperatures 24 hours ahead, predicting daily peak intake temperatures within 10F on 90% of the days, and using only existing measurements. An estimation-theoretic approach to model development is used, which quantifies and minimizes the uncertainties in the model. The approach employs optimal filtering and full-information maximum- likelihood (FIML) estimation to obtain optimum parameter estimates. A two-basin, two-layer hydrothermal model of Salem Harbor is developed. The model computes hourly intake temperatures, incorporating tidal flushing, stratification, surface heat exchange, and wind advection of the plume. Twenty-eight model parameters and five noise statistics are estimated from intake-temperature data. Preliminary best-fit parameter values are obtained subjectively, followed by FIML parameter estimation using a data base of 96 hourly measurements (7/29 - 8/2/74). The model is tested for 106 days (5/17- 9/20/74) and various performance measures are computed, including sum- of-squares of measurement residuals (S), whiteness (P), percent of daily peak temperature predictions within 10F of actual (T), and others. Visual inspection of 24-hour intake temperature predictions shows that the two-basin, two-layer model performs qualitatively well. However, the model fails statistical tests on S and P, indicating structural weaknesses. FIML estimation yields physically unrealistic values for certain parameters, probably compensating for inadequate model structure. Despite structural flaws in the two-basin, two-layer model, FIML estimation yields parameters with consistently better performance than the preliminary estimates (by a small amount). It is concluded that the two-basin, two-layer model is presently unsuitable for STF use, largely due to structural weaknesses. Possible corrections are suggested; however, a statistical model of hourly temperatures appears to offer greater potential accuracy than physically-derived models. FIML parameter estimation is shown to be useful for water quality model development on a real system, particularly after subjective model development has been exhausted. Originally presented as part of the first author's thesis, (Environmental Engineer) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Civil Engineering

The international petroleum market : some behavioral options

2019-04-12T08:39:44Z

The international petroleum market : some behavioral options Eckbo, Paul Leo This thesis describes a behavioral model of the international petroleum market and presents the results from it. The purpose of this study is to develop a framework for analysis of the implications of the likely degree of non-competitive behavior to be observed in the international petroleum market. The focus of the model is on the market strategies that may be pursued by the world's oil exporters on a joint or an individual basis. The structure of the model is designed to combine features of formal modelling and of informal "story-telling" in a consistent framework. Such a structure requires a simulation type model. The "stories" that are being told are constructed from cartel theory, from the empirical evidence on previous commodity cartels, and from the special characteristics of the individual oil exporters. The model described is evolutionary in the sense that each exporter is assumed to behave according to a set of decision rules which may reflect a competitive market structure, a monopolistic market structure, or any combination of the two. The change of the decision rules being applied provides for the evolution of the market price. An attempt has been made to combine the merits of formal competitive and monopoly models with those of the informal "story-telling" approach. The price- and quantity-paths consistent with the various "stories" over the period from 1974 to 1990 are reported. Originally presented as the author's thesis, (Ph.D.) in the M.I.T. Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

The FEA Project Independence report: an analytical review and evaluation

2019-04-11T02:45:41Z

The FEA Project Independence report: an analytical review and evaluation MIT Energy Laboratory Policy Study Group Final report to Office of Energy Research and Development Policy, National Science Foundation, Contract NSF C-1030

Fuel utilization by the electric utility industry in the United States, 1975-1995

2019-04-12T08:39:25Z

Fuel utilization by the electric utility industry in the United States, 1975-1995 Joskow, Paul L.; Rosanski, George

Progress on analysis of the world oil market

2019-04-12T08:39:46Z

Progress on analysis of the world oil market M.I.T. World Oil Project A six-month report to the National Science Foundation on the project "Analysis of the world oil market", Contract no. SIA75-00739

Methods for steady state thermal-hydraulic analysis of pressurized water reactor cores

2019-04-12T08:39:24Z

Methods for steady state thermal-hydraulic analysis of pressurized water reactor cores Moreno Palacios, Pablo; Chiu, Chong A one-pass simplified analysis method for steady state PWR core has been developed. The advantages over the other multistage approaches have been discussed and compared- Recommended nodal patterns for modelling the reactor core have been proposed. Also the effect due to the lumped channel technique utilized in both the simplified method and existing multistage methods has been investigated for both D and 3D problems. For the nodal pattern recommended with the proposed one-pass analysis method, use of the lumped channel technique introduces negligible errors.

Primer for GMIS : General Management Information System

2019-04-12T07:20:54Z

Primer for GMIS : General Management Information System Donovan, John J. GMIS (Generalized Management Information System) is a set of tools for building information systems. These tools include a flexible data management capability, various modeling and analytical capabilities. Facilities for on line queries and execution as well as facilities for multi- user access to a data base. These tools have been applied to produce a facility (NEEMIS, New England Energy Management Information System) for energy planning and analysis within New England. This manual's purpose is to be a primer for using GMIS and the NEEMIS facility. For motivation and overview of the research involved in GMIS, see "GATIS - An Experimental System for Data Management and Analysis", by J. Donovan and H. Jacoby. For a complete description of the facility, see GMIS User's Guide. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management.

Monographs on alternate energy and electric power source: assembled and prepared for Public Service Company of New Hampshire

2019-04-11T02:45:40Z

Monographs on alternate energy and electric power source: assembled and prepared for Public Service Company of New Hampshire Jones, William J.; Meyer, James Wagner

Final report on energy, supply, demand/need and the gaps between : to the M.W. Kellogg Co., Houston, Texas and the Environmental Protection Agency under Task 27 of EPA Contract 8-01-1308

2019-04-12T08:39:52Z

Final report on energy, supply, demand/need and the gaps between : to the M.W. Kellogg Co., Houston, Texas and the Environmental Protection Agency under Task 27 of EPA Contract 8-01-1308 Meyer, James Wagner; Jones, William J.; Kessler, Myer M. This paper is a summary, based on a critical review of selected literature pertaining to energy supply, demand, supply/ demand imbalances and the operational/technological developments needed to redress imbalances. Crises have been a recurrent feature of man's history. There was a crisis based on a shortage of wood fuel in the early 17th century. Whale oil was so short during the Civil War that the price doubled, yet it then dropped by a factor of six before the end of the century as kerosene became an alternate option. Energy demand growth soared in the U.S. over the last two decades not because of need but because real energy prices dropped. Energy was substituted for labor and material which were costing more. Now we have materials as well as energy shortages and massive unemployment. There is little agreement regarding our future supply of fossil fuels and no consensus on the best way to reduce demand. History tells us that the imbalance will be resolved. It is our task to make sure that the resolution occurs with the lowest possible social and environmental cost. Price can resolve the imbalance, but because price dbes not often reflect all costs this resolution can be very disruptive. Alternatives must be developed and options broadened. Opportunities for conservation should not be overlooked for the marginal barrel of oil saved is of greater value than the marginal barrel of new production. A series of working papers and monographs which discuss certain aspects of this review more broadly are included in Volume II of this report.

Stability and mixing of submerged turbulent jets at low Reynolds numbers

2019-04-10T20:51:59Z

Stability and mixing of submerged turbulent jets at low Reynolds numbers Ungate, Christopher David; Harleman, Donald R. F.; Jirka, Gerhard Hermann An experimental study is made of the variation of volume and centerline dilution as a function of Reynolds number in non- buoyant and buoyant round jets discharged vertically from a submerged nozzle. The jet Reynolds numbers covered the laminar- turbulent transition with values ranging from Re = u D/v = 100 to 20,000 where u = jet exit velocity, D = jet diameter, and V = kinematic viscosity. Measurements of jet temperature profiles are obtained by using both fast and slow thermistor probes. Turbulent dilution is found to be independent of Reynolds number for non-buoyant jets above a critical Reynolds number of about 1,500. For buoyant jets (densimetric Froude numbers in the range 25 to 50), the critical Reynolds number is about 1,200. Reasonable agreement is obtained with the results of previous investigators for dilution values at high Reynolds numbers. Dye studies of transition Reynolds numbers are compared with a study by A.F. Pearce (1966) and good agreement is found. The results are useful in determining the minimum length scale ratio for hydro-thermal model studies, especially those of submerged multiport diffusers. It is concluded that modeling of turbulent jets is acceptable provided the model Reynolds number is larger than the critical Reynolds number and provided no other constraint becomes binding. In addition, the model jet's laminar length, if any, must be insignificant when compared to the total length of the path of the jet. Originally presented as the first author's thesis (M.S.), Temperature reduction in a submerged vertical jet in the laminar-turbulent transition, M.I.T. Dept. of Civil Engineering

GMIS : an experimental system for data management and analysis

2019-04-11T02:45:45Z

GMIS : an experimental system for data management and analysis Donovan, John J.; Jacoby, Henry D. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management

The international finance aspects of OPEC : an informational note

2019-04-12T08:39:24Z

The international finance aspects of OPEC : an informational note Agmon, Tamir; Lessard, Donald R.; Paddock, James Lester

Modeling conventional and pumped hydro-electric energy using Booth-Baleriaux probabilistic simulation

2019-04-12T08:39:51Z

Modeling conventional and pumped hydro-electric energy using Booth-Baleriaux probabilistic simulation Finger, Susan

Energy system modeling and forecasting

2019-04-12T08:39:45Z

Energy system modeling and forecasting Hoffman, Kenneth C.; Wood, David O.

Project Independence report : a review of U.S. energy needs up to 1985

2019-04-11T02:45:46Z

Project Independence report : a review of U.S. energy needs up to 1985 Hausman, Jerry A.

OPEC and the experience of previous international commodity cartels

2019-04-12T07:20:54Z

OPEC and the experience of previous international commodity cartels Eckbo, Paul Leo

Water tests for determining post voiding behavior in the LMFB : final report

2019-04-12T08:39:23Z

Water tests for determining post voiding behavior in the LMFB : final report Hinkle, William D. The most serious of the postulated accidents considered in the design of the Liquid Metal Cooled Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) is the Loss of Pipe Integrity (LOPI) accident. Analysis models used to calculate the consequences of this accident assume that once boiling is initiated film dryout occurs in the hot assembly as a result of rapid vapor bubble growth and consequent flow stoppage or reversal. However, this assumption has not been put to any real test. Once boiling is initiated in the hot assembly during an LMFBR LOPI accident, a substantial gravity pressure difference would exist between this assembly and other colder assemblies in the core. This condition would give rise to natural circulation flow boiling accompanied by pressure and flow oscillations. It is possible that such oscillations could prevent or delay dryout and provide substantial post-voiding heat removal. The tests described in this report were conceived with the objective of obtaining basic information and data relating to this possibility. To accomplish this objective a natural circulation test loop was designed to simulate LMFBR geometry and flow conditions predicted to exist at the time boiling is initiated in a LOPI accident. The test loop included: (l) a vertical tube test section, (2) upper and lower plenum tanks, (3) an external down-commer, (4) sight flow indicators and (5) instrumentation. The test section was an electrically heated tube designed with a hydraulic diameter and length similar to current LMFBR (FTR) design. The upper and lower plenum tanks were provided with means for controlling liquid subcooling above and below the test section. The down-commer was large enough to eliminate down-commer hydraulics. Water at a pressure of 1 atmosphere was used to simulate sodium. Sight flow indicators were provided to observe flow conditions at the test section inlet and exit. Instrumentation was provided to measure test section pressures, inlet and exit temperatures, tube wall temperatures, heat flux and oscillation frequencies. Steady state tests were conducted for subcooled flow boiling, saturated flow boiling, CHF and post CHF conditions. Subcooled flow boiling was observed for heat fluxes below 1 x 104 BTU/hr ft2. For this condition, both pressure oscillations and temperature oscillations at the heated surface were observed; but the pressure oscillations were not observed continuously. Saturated flow boiling was observed for heat fluxes between 3 x 104 BTU/hr ft2 and CHF. For this condition, pressure oscillations were observed continuously. As the CHF condition was approached, a periodic downward expansion of vapor from the heated section was observed at the bottom sight flow indicator and the flow regime appeared to be annular at the top sight flow indicator. CHF was observed at the top of the heated section when the heat flux reached 6.4 x 104 BTU/hr ft2, but rewetting occurred after a few seconds. As the heat flux was increased further, the maximum surface temperature reached before rewetting increased; until, at a heat flux of 7.15 x 104 BTU/hr ft2, the maximum temperature exceeded 9000 F and rewetting no longer occurred. A transient test was conducted for a post CHF condition. The heat flux was 7.3 x 104 BTU/hr ft2. The oscillations observed under steady state conditions developed within a few seconds after the power was turned on. The equilibrium tube wall temperature upstream of the CHF location was reached in 10 seconds. The equilibrium tube wall temperature at the CHF location was reached in about 135 seconds. A similarity analysis was done in order to scale the test results to LMFBR LOPI conditions. The results of this analysis indicate that the CHF for the LMFBR (FTR) would be at least 6 x 104 BTU/hr ft2. This corresponds to a critical average linear power for the hot assembly of 1.06 kw/ft compared to an estimated 2.55 to 5.1 kw/ft being transferred to the coolant at the time boiling begins during a LOPI accident. On the basis of this analysis, the results of the water tests indicate that CHF would occur. But, this conclusion is conservative for a number of reasons and further experimental work on a more prototypical system is suggested.

An application of a generalized management information system to energy policy and decision making : the user's view

2019-04-12T07:20:53Z

An application of a generalized management information system to energy policy and decision making : the user's view Donovan, John J. This paper presents an approach to the development and use of management information systems that is particularly applicable to systems with the following characteristics: - several classes of users, each of which has a different degree of sophistication - complex and changing security requirements - data exhibits complex and changing inter-relationships - changing needs to be met by information system - must be built quickly nd inexpensively - complex data validation requirements The approach is hierarchical from the user's view in that he may access the system at distinct levels, corresponding to his degree of computer sophistication. A casual user has high level primitives to work with, while an experienced user has more flexible but more detailed low- level primitives. We also have advocated that such systems be implemented in a hierarchical fashion, because this technique provides for ease of debugging, independence of hardware, and a basis for investigating properties of completeness, integrity, correctness, and performance.

NEEMIS overview : New England Energy Management Information System

2019-04-11T02:45:34Z

NEEMIS overview : New England Energy Management Information System MIT Energy Lab Prepared in association with the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

Investment and returns in exploration and the impact on oil and natural gas supply

2019-04-09T15:33:31Z

Investment and returns in exploration and the impact on oil and natural gas supply Challa, Krishna An econometric model is developed to explain the investment in exploratory activity and the resulting accumulation of proved reserves of oil and natural gas in the continental United States. The model explicitly takes into account therole of geological uncertainty as well as the effect of depletion in the context of a finite resource base. The model for reserve additions describes the process of generating new discoveries of oil and natural gas in two stages. The first stage describes investment in exploration under conditions of geological uncertainty and a continuing process of depletion of the hydrocarbon resource base. Exploratory companies are assumed to choose a level of investment that maximizes the firm's value after balancing expected returns against the risks involved in exploration and the corresponding costs. Combined with a characterization of costs of exploration and development, this analysis leads to an expression for the total amount of exploratory drilling in each production district in terms of estimates of anticipated returns and anticipated risk. In the second stage, the model predicts the parameters of the size distribution of alternative drilling prospects, and updates them from period to period to reflect the continuing process of depletion of prospects as well as new information on geological and economic variables. The amount of drilling activity can then be translated into actual discoveries of oil and natural gas through the estimates of success fractions and sizes of discovery (conditional on a success), which depend on these parameters. Structuring the model in this way enables us to take account of possible shifts in the relative proportions of extensive and intensive drilling as a result of changes in economic variables. Additions to proved reserves can also occur as a result of extensions and revisions of existing fields and pools. Extensions and revisions are modelled as functions of previous discoveries, exploratory wells drilled, existing levels of accumulated reserves and production, and an index of geological depletion. An important aspect of the model is that it gives explicit consideration to the process of long term geological depletion as well as the role of risk in determining the amount of exploratory activity. It also accounts for the fact that on the level of new discoveries oil and natural gas are in fact joint products, and must be treated symmetrically. Finally, the model allows for shifts in the relative proportions of intensive and extensive drilling in response to changes in economic incentives. The model is estimated and simulated to verify its pre- dictive validity over a historic period. It is then used to examine the influence of alternative regulatory policies on the oil and natural gas reserves and production. Combined with an existing model of demand for oil and natural gas (the MacAvoy-Pindyck Model), this provides a basis for estimating future shortages and increases in economic incentives needed to ameliorate them. Originally presented as the author's thesis (Ph.D.), M.I.T. Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

Energy demand in the ERDA national R,D&D plan

2019-04-10T20:36:56Z

Energy demand in the ERDA national R,D&D plan Wood, David O.; Hausman, Jerry A.

Electric utility fuel choice behavior in the United States

2019-04-12T08:39:40Z

Electric utility fuel choice behavior in the United States Joskow, Paul L.; Mishkin, Frederic Stanley

Use of virtual machines in information systems

2019-04-10T20:23:19Z

Use of virtual machines in information systems Donovan, John J. This paper presents a scheme using the virtual machine concept for-creating: 1) An environment for increasing the effectiveness of researchers who use analytical, modeling systems and have complex data management needs. 2) A mechanism for multi-user coordination of access and update to a central data base. 3) A mechanism for creating an environment where several different modeling facilities can access the same data base. 4) A mechanism for creating an environment where several different and potentially incompatible data management systems can all be accessed by the same user models or facilities'. 5) A mechanism for reducing the transport cost of integrating existing analytical packages and applications programs under a single unified system.. 6) A mechanism for enhancing the data management capabilities of existing modeling and anlaytical languages. Also presented is a theoretical analysis of the performance implications of this scheme specifically directed at the question of response time degradation as a function of number of virtual machines, of locked time of the data base machine, and of query rate of the modeling machine. A discussion of the practical implications of this analysis is given. Prepared in association with the Sloan School of Management

Stability and mixing of a vertical round buoyant jet in shallow water

2019-04-12T08:39:37Z

Stability and mixing of a vertical round buoyant jet in shallow water Lee, Joseph Hun-Wei; Jirka, Gerhard Hermann; Harleman, Donald R. F. Discharging heated water through submerged vertical round ports located at the bottom of a receiving water body is a currently used method of waste heat disposal. The prediction of the temperature reduction in the near field of the buoyant jet is a problem of environmental concern. The mechanics of a vertical axisymmetric buoyant jet in shallow water is theoretically and experimentally investigated. Four flow regimes with distinct hydrodynamic properties are discerned in the vicinity of the jet: the buoyant jet region, the surface impingement region, the internal hydraulic jump, and the stratified counterflow region. An analytical framework is formulated for each region. The coupling of the solutions of the four regions yields a prediction of the near field stability as well as the temperature reduction of the buoyant discharge. It is found that the near field of the buoyant jet is stable only for a range of jet densimetric Froude numbers and submergences. A theoretical solution is given for the stability criterion and the dilution of an unstable buoyant jet. A series of experiments were conducted to verify the theory. The experimental results are compared to the theoretical predictions. Good agreement is obtained. Also issued as a M.S. thesis in the Department of Civil Engineering at Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Interfuel substitution in the consumption of energy in the United States

2019-04-12T07:20:55Z

Interfuel substitution in the consumption of energy in the United States Baughman, Martin Lynn; Joskow, Paul L.; Zerhoot, Frederick S.

The role for Federal R & D on alternative automotive power systems

2019-04-11T02:45:27Z

The role for Federal R & D on alternative automotive power systems Heywood, John Benjamin; Jacoby, Henry D.; Linden, Lawrence Howard Report submitted to the Office of Energy R & D Policy, National Science Foundation

Advanced dry cooling tower concept

2019-04-12T08:39:49Z

Advanced dry cooling tower concept Curcio, John Lorenzo The purpose of this year's work has been to develop a new dry cooling tower surface. The new surface utilizes a modification of film type packing in wet cooling towers. It is a concept which may eliminate excessive water loss. Cost of fabrication, and effectiveness of heat transfer surface were among the major design considerations. Based on preliminary water wetting investigations over simple geometric surfaces, a conductive plate was shaped to form a series of V-troughs. It provided open chennelled water flow separated by fin-like dry surfaces, and simultaneously self distributed random spraying water. The design not only channels the water flow, but also provides a convenient means to vary the air-water interfacial area to the water-plate and dry plate contact area. Varying these ratios will become necessary as optimization studies are completed. To investigate the effectiveness of this design and of future advanced wet-dry concepts, a model heat transfer test apparatus was constructed. It provided operating conditions (water temperature, water flow rates and air flow rates) similar to those of existing wet cooling tower packing sections. All of the design requirements have been satisfied: hot water flow recirculation and counter flow air stream. A computer simulation of the proposed surface was made. The simulation modeled heat and mass transfer from the air-water interface as well as heat transfer from the dry surface area. Initial parametric runs were made using the program. They indicate that when the ratio of wet surface area to total surface area is five percent, approximately seventy-five percent of the energy transfer takes place as sensible heat transfer; whereas, for a wet tower at similar conditions approximately eighty-five percent of the total energy transfer takes place by evaporation. Prepared in association with Heat Transfer Laboratory, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

High grade uranium resources in the United States : an overview

2019-04-11T02:45:26Z

High grade uranium resources in the United States : an overview Graves, Richard E. A time analysis of uranium exploration, production and known reserves in the United States is employed to reveal industry trends. The basis for this analysis is the data collected, processed and published by the A.E.C.'s Grand Junction Office. This analysis reveals that exploration, thus the quantity of known uranium, has been governed by demand. Factors affecting the prospects for future discoveries are discussed. The author concludes that the resource base may be substantially greater than is presently known, and calls for a national research effort to better quantify the extent of our uranium resources.

International issues in energy R & D policy

2019-04-12T08:40:23Z

International issues in energy R & D policy Greenwood, Ted Ronald Ivan; Jacoby, Henry D.

NEEMIS : text of governors presentation of October 6, 1975

2019-04-12T08:39:45Z

NEEMIS : text of governors presentation of October 6, 1975 Donovan, John J.; Keating, W. Robert This is the text of a presentation given to the six New England governors on November 7, 1975. The presentation focused on explaining how the New England Energy Management Information System (NEEMIS) has helped the region, what it is, how it will continue to help the region, what unique technology made it possible, what shall be done in the future, and a demonstration of one application. Prepared in association with the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management

The economics of the natural gas shortage (1960-1980)

2019-04-12T08:39:42Z

The economics of the natural gas shortage (1960-1980) MacAvoy, Paul Webster; Pindyck, Robert S.

Feasibility of fuel switching in Boston

2019-04-12T08:40:37Z

Feasibility of fuel switching in Boston Hoult, David P.; Kranz, William T. This report develops a simple physical model that predicts that the nighttime dispersion of S2 from the largest sources in Boston is different than the dispersion of S2 from small, low level sources. Diurnal variations in S02 levels measured in Boston over the last seven years are analyzed in the light of this theory. The comparison between theory and observation is favorable. A simple, unambiguous, criteria for defining a large source is developed. The results are used to predict the fraction of the time large sources could burn high sulfur fuels while still meeting the state standards for sulfur dioxide.

Factors affecting residential heating energy consumption

2019-04-12T08:39:23Z

Factors affecting residential heating energy consumption Donovan, John J.; Fischer, Walter P. Twenty per cent of all energy consumed in New England and ten per cent of all energy consumed in the United States is consumed in home heating. This paper reports on an effort to ascertain the major factors affecting the consumption of home heating oil. Three general classes of factors are analyzed: (1) physical and occupant characteristics (number of rooms, number of occupants, number of stories, amount of insulation, income level, etc.); (2) external (price, shortage awareness, weather); and (3) behavioral and physical changes (change in temperature settings, change in insulation, change in oil burner, etc.). The study is based on four data series: (1) actual monthly home heating oil consumption data on 8000 suburban homeowners in suburban Boston; (2) questionnaire responses from 2000 homeowners on their homes' physical and occupant characteristics, as well as changes in physical and occu- pant behavioral characteristics between 1972 and 1975; (3) monthly weather data; and (4) heating oil price data. The data is associated with the years from 1972 through 1975, a period in which marked price changes, shortages, and behavioral changes occurred, hence providing an opportunity to study the effects of these various events. Three models are central to the study: Model I. A cross-sectional model that depicts consumption per degree-day as a function of physical and occupant characteristics of a home. Model II. A time series regression model that establishes consumption per degree-day as a function of price and consumer awareness of an energy shortage. Model III. A cross-sectional regression model that attempts to explain change in consumption per degree-day from one year to the next as a function of specific conservation actions such as temperature resetting, addition of storm windows, etc. The major findings of each model are as follows: Model I: House size, age of home, family income, and the presence of storm doors and windows are all significant factors in predicting the amount of home oil consumption. Model II: Estimated values of price elasticity with respect to demand for residential heating oil and a measure of 'mnpact of shortage awareness on consumption are determined. This model also demonstrates that there were substantial savings in consumption corresponding to increases in price and shortage awareness from 1972-1975. Model III: he data from the questionnaire indicate that only a few consumers made physical home improvements; however, the data from the oil company indicate that a substantial savings (over 12%) in consumption occurred between the heating seasons 1972/73 and 1973/74. The conclusion from this data indicates that behavioral changes were the major conservation actions taken. Model III indicates that the behavioral change of temperature resetting is significant and the physical change of additional weather stripping and change of burner are significant. Further study is needed, however, to determine those behavioral changes that accounted for the major change in consumption. In addition, this model indicates that different groups within the sample (e.g., by income level, house characteristics) display similar conservation efficiency. In addition to the findings of the models, the paper includes (in Appendix B) a detailed discussion of biases associated with the data. Major conclusions from that discussion are: (1) our sample is representative of suburban homes in the Northern United States; (2) the consumers who responded to the questionnaire were slightly more energy- conscious and responded slightly more dramatically to price increases than the general populace; (3) our residential heating oil prices are representative of those that prevailed in the region; and (4) the heating seasons 1972 through 1975 were warmer than usual. Trends in the data indicate that new homes in the sample have a considerable amount of insulation and the typical single-family house in the sample has storm windows and doors.

The future of the U.S. nuclear energy industry

2019-04-12T08:40:23Z

The future of the U.S. nuclear energy industry Joskow, Paul L.; Baughman, Martin Lynn

Energy conservation: a case study for a large manufacturing plant

2019-04-12T08:39:41Z

Energy conservation: a case study for a large manufacturing plant Felton, Lewis Allen; Glicksman, Leon R. The methods of formulating, implementing, and evaluating a conservation program in a commercial building or light industrial plant are examined in this paper. The results of one case study are also presented. In commercial and light industrial applications, most energy is consumed to maintain proper environmental conditions; light levels, heat levels, and fresh air levels. Most buildings today expend too much energy on these services. A co-ordinated program to maintain environmental conditions at levels pointed out in this report could save as mu h as 20% each year in energy consumption. This report presents a method that can be used by many commercial and light industrial concerns to establish a conservation program. Guidelines are presented that can be used to examine environmental conditions and determine how they must be changed. A system of program analysis is also presented. Results of this study show that saving 20% is possible, but motivation of the company and workforce will be a problem. The report also concludes that new buildings can be made more energy efficient if energy conservation is kept in mind during building design.

The economics of reliability for electric generation systems

2019-04-10T21:48:45Z

The economics of reliability for electric generation systems Telson, Michael Lawrence Providing excess generation capability for reliability purposes costs a utility money. It is also true, that providing higher reliability adds value to electric service. After some point, however, the additional benefits do not warrant the additional cost. This work deals with the questions of how reliable should generation capability be for meeting system loads, what models should be used to measure this reliability and what bases should be used for answering the above two questions. We critique the measures that have been used and suggest that an energy shortage related measure in probably the best one to use. In addition, we specify what load and what benefit measurement models should be used. The resulting procedures are then used to develop techniques for 1) creating long term expansions of electric utility systems at various reliability levels and for 2) analyzing the costs and benefits of plant additions to arbitrary system expansions. From representative data, we conclude that present generation reliability levels for operation are probably too high. We discuss the magnitude of possible savings and we find that although only a few % of total system costs, they may have substantial profit impact. Based on a Ph. D. thesis in the Dept. of Civil Engineering

World oil : availability and price the next ten years

2019-04-12T07:21:08Z

World oil : availability and price the next ten years Adelman, Morris Albert This report was prepared as a background paper for presentation and discussion at the Asian Development Bank's Regional Meeting on Energy Policy held on December 11-12, 1986 in Manila

Light-water reactor physics parameters for transient analysis

2019-04-11T02:45:44Z

Light-water reactor physics parameters for transient analysis Olmos, Jaime; Hansen, Kent Forrest The nature and characteristics of nuclear reactor transients induced by control rod motions are important to light-water reactor safety analyses. Rod motion influences both local neutron absorption rates and the local neutron spectra. Studies on specific systems suggest that accurate prediction of transients requires that both the absorption rate change and the spectral change are necessary to represent control rod motion.

Modeling of electric power demand growth

2019-04-12T08:40:37Z

Modeling of electric power demand growth Woodard, James B.; Baughman, Martin L.; Schweppe, Fred C. Paper given at MIT conference entitled Energy: Demand, Conservation and Institutional Problems, February 12-15, 1973

The agency cost of corporate control : the petroleum industry

2019-04-12T08:40:41Z

The agency cost of corporate control : the petroleum industry Jacobs, Emmett Allen

The design and implementation of a demonstration supplementary control system, February 1, 1974-July 31, 1976 : interim final report

2019-04-12T08:39:40Z

The design and implementation of a demonstration supplementary control system, February 1, 1974-July 31, 1976 : interim final report Ruane, M. This report documents the progress made during the six-month Phase I portion of a project to design and implement a Supplementary Control System on four coal-burning power plants in western Pennsylvania. Preliminary data collection and analysis, air quality modeling, meteorological forecasting, control strategy development and program definition are discussed. Coordination of Phases I and II is explained. Appendices include data on meteorology, the AIRMAP air quality monitoring system and plant and system parameters affecting control strategy design.

Local economic impact of nuclear power plants

2019-04-12T07:21:01Z

Local economic impact of nuclear power plants Shurcliff, Alice W.

The hidden world trade in energy

2019-04-11T03:55:16Z

The hidden world trade in energy Strout, Alan Mayne The energy embodied in internationally traded commodities is estimated for the year 1967 by employing United States input-output energy coefficients expressed in physical units. In this year and under the assumption of USA technology and industrial structure, this "hidden" world trade in energy probably exceeded 40 per cent of the directly observed world trade in energy. As a ratio to aggregate energy consumption, the importance of embodied energy flows is smaller, but net embodied energy imports are positively correlated with per capita GDP, and their inclusion in aggregate energy consumption would increase measured income (per capita GDP) elasticities. A country's imports of embodied energy are approximately proportional to the imports of all commodities. Exports of embodied energy, on the other hand, especially those associated with more energy-intensive materials (which are largely products of what is commonly called heavy industry and which account for most of the country net imports of embodied energy) have a much higher elasticity than do imports with respect to per capita GDP. These energy-intensive exports are also significantly affected by a country's relative production of primary energy, total agricultural crops, and other natural resources.

Federal support for the development of alternative automotive power systems : the General Issue and the Stirling, Diesel and Electric cases

2019-04-11T02:45:37Z

Federal support for the development of alternative automotive power systems : the General Issue and the Stirling, Diesel and Electric cases Linden, Lawrence Howard Submitted to the Office and Energy R & D Policy, National Science Foundation

The mechanics of submerged multiport diffusers for bouyant discharges in shallow water

2019-04-10T21:48:44Z

The mechanics of submerged multiport diffusers for bouyant discharges in shallow water Jirka, Gerhard H.; Harleman, Donald R. F. A submerged multiport diffuser is an effective device for disposal of water containing heat or other degradable wastes into a natural body of water. A high degree of dilution can be obtained and the environmental impact of concentrated waste can be constrained to a small area. An analytical and experimental investigation is conducted for the purpose of developing predictive methods for buoyant discharges from submerged multiport diffusers. The following physical situation is considered: A multiport diffuser with given length, nozzle spacing and vertical angle of nozzles is located on the bottom of a large body of water of uniform depth. The ambient water is unstratified and may be stagnant or have a uniform current which runs at an arbitrary angle to the axis of the diffuser. The general case of a diffuser in arbitrary depth of water and arbitrary buoyancy is treated. However, emphasis is put on the diffuser in shallow receiving water with low buoyancy, the type used for discharge of condenser cooling water from thermal power plants. A multiport diffuser will produce a general three-dimensional flow field. Yet the predominantly two-dimensional flow which is postulated to exist in the center portion of the three-dimensional diffuser cart be analyzed as a two-dimensional "channel model", that is a diffuser section bounded by walls of finite length and openings at both ends into a large reservoir. Matching of the solutions for the four distinct flow regions which can be discerned in the channel model, namely, a buoyant jet region, a surface impingement region, an internal hydraulic jump region and a stratified counterflow region, yields these results: The near-field zone is stable only for a limited range of jet densimetric Froude numbers and relative depths. The stability is also dependent on the jet discharge angle. It is only in this limited range that previous buoyant jet models assuming an unbounded receiving water are applicable to predict dilutions. Outside of the parameter range which yields stable near-field conditions, the diffuser-induced dilutions are essentially determined by the interplay of two factors: frictional effects in the far-field and the horizontal momentum input of the jet discharge. Three far-field flow configurations are possible, a counter flow system, a stagnant wedge system and a vertically fully mixed flow, which is the extreme case of surface and bottom interaction. A three-dimensional model for the diffuser-induced flow field is developed. Based on equivalency of far-field effects, the predictions of the two-dimensional channel model can be linked to the three-dimensional diffuser characteristics. Diffusers with an unstable near-field produce three-dimensional circulations which lead to recirculation at the diffuser line: effective control of these circulations is possible through horizontal nozzle orientation. The diffuser in an ambient cross-current is studied experimentally. Different extreme regimes of diffuser behaviour can be described. Performance is dependent on the arrangement of the diffuser axis with respect to the crossflow direction. Experiments are performed in two set-ups, investigating both two- dimensional slots and three-dimensional diffusers. Good agreement between theoretical predictions and experimental results is found. The results of this study are presented in form of dilution graphs which can be used for three-dimensional diffuser design or preliminary design if proper schematization of the ambient geometry is possible. Design considerations are discussed and examples are given. For more complicated ambient conditions, hydraulic scale models are necessary. The results of this study indicate that only undistorted scale models simulate the correct areal extent of the temperature field and the interaction with currents, but are always somewhat conservative in dilution prediction. The degree of conservatism can be estimated. Distorted models are less conservative in predicting near-field dilutions, but exaggerate the extent of the near-field mixing zone. Prepared by the Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Water Resources and Hydrodynamics in association with the Energy Laboratory

Estimating energy consumption from cross-country relationships

2019-04-10T21:48:51Z

Estimating energy consumption from cross-country relationships Strout, Alan Mayne

The periodic cooling tower - flow visualization, surface roughening, and full scale model

2019-04-10T20:09:04Z

The periodic cooling tower - flow visualization, surface roughening, and full scale model Hon, Pou Cheong The concept of periodic towers is to have sheet metal discs partially submerged in hot, power plant condenser effluent. As the discs rotate, local sections of the discs alternately absorb heat from the effluent and discharge heat to the air. The means of heat transfer on the air side can be either evaporative and/or convective, depending upon the amount of effluent carried into the air side on the surface of the plates. An oil layer, floated on the water's surface, has been shown to be effective in eliminating water carry-over to the air side. The advantages of the periodic tower lie in the low cost of the discs and the ability to operate dry. A periodic tower is significantly less expensive than a conventional dry tower fabricated with finned tubes. Further, with the capacity of being operated wet, the high capacity losses incurred during warm months by finned tube towers can be eliminated. The effort to evaluate periodic cooling towers has been a three-pronged thrust: 1) A full scale model of a periodic heat exchanger was designed and is being built to optimize the overall performance and determine the economic competitiveness of this new form of heat exchanger. In the periodic exchanger cooling air is forced over the top portion of a long horizontal row of circular discs slowly rotating in a hot water bath. This large model, over twenty-five feet long and ten feet high with a two and one half by one foot test section, will provide actual test data to verify previous performance optimization calculations and allow for research and development to continue on many design details for this new concept. 2) Disc Ribbing - Roughened Surfaces An existing computer design routine for optimizing periodic cooling towers has been modified by increasing the number of variables from 5 to 8. This was done to account for the effects of roughened surfaces on heat exchanger performance. The modified optimum computer design program yields a periodic tower configuration having the lowest incremental cost for power operation, but it is impractical because the optimized rib heights are smaller than the oil film clinging to the discs. Taking into account the effect of the coating oil thickness on the surfaces, sensitivity studies on the influences of the roughened surfaces on the incremental cost have been made. A specific 5 ft. diameter roughened surface heat exchanger yields a 15 to 20% savings of capital and incremental cost over a smooth heat exchanger of the same diameter. This economically warrants the use of roughened rather than smooth surfaces for periodic heat exchangers. 3) Flow visualization tests indicate that the mixing of water in the periodic exchanger trough is strongly dependent upon both the water's inlet and outlet points, and the rotational direction of the plates. Various mixing currents in the trough for different geometries have been observed by use of dye injection. Silicone oils, because of their lower vapor pressure and subsequent low rate of evaporation, appear to be superior to petroleum based oils. Improvement of the environmental and economic characteristics of cooling towers, pt.2

Exploration in competitive nonrenewable resource markets : an extension of Pindyck's perfect foresight model

2019-04-10T16:47:29Z

Exploration in competitive nonrenewable resource markets : an extension of Pindyck's perfect foresight model Laughton, David G. Pindyck's model of exploration for, and production of, a non-renewable resource (Pindyck 1978) is extended so that the production cost function may depend separately on concurrently available reserves and on the total amount of past production. A method for obtaining the optimal trajectory of parameterised specifications of the model is tested on elaborations of a corrected version of the parameterised specification used by Pindyck in his paper. The initial price for each simulation is tabulated.

A regionalized electricity model

2019-04-12T08:40:25Z

A regionalized electricity model Baughman, Martin Lynn; Joskow, Paul L.

Thermal pollution abatement evaluation model for power plant siting

2019-04-10T21:48:48Z

Thermal pollution abatement evaluation model for power plant siting Shiers, Paul Francis; Marks, David H. A thermal pollution abatement model for power plant siting is formulated to evaluate the economic costs, resource requirements, and physical characteristics of a particular thermal pollution abatement technology at a given site type for a plant alternative. The model also provides a screening capability to determine which sites are feasible alternatives for development by the calculation of the resource requirements and a check of the applicable thermal standards, and determining whether the plant alternative could be built on the available site in compliance with the thermal standards. The thermal pollution evaluation model analyzes the abatement technologies of surface discharge, diffuser, cooling pond, spray canal, and wet mechanical draft cooling towers. The typical site types evaluated are a river, small lake, great lake, coastal, estuary, offshore ocean, and water poor site. The model will be used in conjunction with a Plant Evaluation Model, which analyzes the effects of fuel costs and air pollution abatement, a Plant Expansion Model, and a Generation Expansion Model to determine the optimal operating and generating plan for an electric utility. The model may also be used in conjunction with the Plant Evaluation Model to evaluate the trade offs between the dollar cost of electric power generation, reliability, and air and thermal pollution. The model may also be used to determine, for a single plant site alternative, which abatement technologies would be feasible, and to make an economic and resource requirement comparison between these alternatives. Finally, the model could be used to examine the economic and locational aspects of the implementation of a plan limiting the waste heat discharge to natural bodies to zero discharge. Essentially constitutes the M.S. thesis by P.F. Shiers in the Dept. of Civil Engineering

Quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system

2019-04-09T17:52:59Z

Quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system Oyama, Tatsuo In order to measure Japan's energy system's stability under an uncertain future availability of energy resources, we built a mathematical programming / economic equilibrium model based upon linear programming techniques. Future uncertainty is expressed as random variables with a given probability distribution, and the economic equilibrium point is obtained by iterative convergent computation. Numerical experiments show an optimal energy supply-demand structure with equilibrium prices of primary energy resources at the future target year, then we obtain supply stability and instability probabilities of our energy system. From shadow price analysis of an optimal solution our energy policy is quantitatively evaluated.

Heat rejection from horizontal tubes to shallow fluidized beds

2019-04-12T08:40:26Z

Heat rejection from horizontal tubes to shallow fluidized beds Andeen, Bruce Robert; Glicksman, Leon R.; Rohsenow, Warren Max As fluidized beds can result in an order of magnitude increase in the heat transfer coefficinet for a surface, they can potentially be coupled with dry cooling towers for power plant heat rejection. On such a large scale, economic considerations necessitate the use of an inexpensive particle and shallow bed depths. Existing heat transfer mechanism models for fluidized beds are discussed, and a new model presented. Heat transfer coefficients from a horizontal tube in a row of dummy tubes to a shallow fluidized bed were experimentally measured. Coefficients from banks of horizontal tubes are lower than coefficients from vertical walls primarily because of particle stagnation on the tube tops and particle recirculation problems. Experimentally, different tube and distributer geometries were tried in order to reduce stagnations and enhance particle recirculation. Experimental data for these different geometries is compared to exising horizontal tube correlations and the new model. The RMS deviation of data from the model is less than 17%. The best correlation was obtained by modifying the Vreedenberg correlation to include a dependency on the particle fraction of the bed. The RMS deviation of data from the modified Vreedenberg correlation was 13.8%. Using both experimental data and the modified Vreedenberg correlation, economic optimizations were performed to compare fluidized bed dry cooling towers to a finned tube tower. For a 1000 mw plant, heat exchanger costs are 13% lower for fluidized beds, but the fluidized bed is severely penalized by the cost for the power needed to keep the bed fluidized. The incremental cost of the fluidized bed is 16% higher than that for a finned surface, but rapidly approaches the finned tube incremental cost as the particle size and bed depth are reduced. Improvement of the environmental and economic characteristics of cooling towers, pt. 1

The supply of coal in the long run : the case of eastern deep coal

2019-04-11T02:45:43Z

The supply of coal in the long run : the case of eastern deep coal Zimmerman, Martin B.

A mathematical programming/economic equilibrium model for the quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system

2019-04-12T11:21:49Z

A mathematical programming/economic equilibrium model for the quantitative analysis of the stability of Japan's energy system Oyama, Tatsuo Japan's energy supply-demand system is fully dependent on the import of primary energy resources from foreign countries. So the availability of primary energy, including crude oil and coal, is a very important factor for the stability of our energy system. In order to measure our energy system's stability under an uncertain future availability of energy resources, we built a mathematical programming / economic equilibrium model based upon linear programming techniques. In the model analysis uncertain future availability of primary energy resources is expressed as random variables with a given probability distribution, and the economic equilibrium point is obtained by iterative convergent computation. From our numerical results we know an optimal energy supply-demand structure with equilibrium prices of primary energy resources at the future target year, and obtain supply stability and instability probabilities of our energy system. Furthermore, applicability of decomposition techniques to our energy model analysis and necessary and sufficient conditions for the stability of our energy system are discussed.

Cost evaluation of air pollution control standards

2019-04-09T18:58:58Z

Cost evaluation of air pollution control standards Ruane, Michael Frederick A modAl is developed to describe the sulfur dioxide and particulate air pollution characteristics of a fossil fueled steam electric power plant. The model contains three stages. The first considers boiler emissions and the application of one of four parameterized abatement methods: wet limestone scrubbing, catalytic oxidation, magnesium oxide scrubbing, and the use of tall stacks. The second stage tests stack emissions and uses meteorological dispersion models, particularly the double gaussian model, to determine and test three hour, twenty-four hour and annual worst case ground level concentrations. The third stage calculates the performance of the abatement method used in terms of economics and resource costs. The model can be used to determine feasible combinations of plant types, site types and abatement methods as support for a separate generation expansion model. It can also be used independently to study environmental and economic sensitivities to changes in air pollution standards. General descriptions of the operation of the abatement methods and explanations of meteorological modeling are included. Examples of the use of the model as an evaluative planning tool and as a sensitivity analysis tool, examining sulfur dioxide standards, are given. A computer listing of the model is included. Prepared in association with Electric Power Systems Engineering Laboratory and Dept. of Civil Engineering

Oil producing countries' discount rates

2019-04-12T11:21:49Z

Oil producing countries' discount rates Adelman, Morris Albert The small LDCs which own the great bulk of oil resour- ces are rational agents and calculate with short horizons and high discount rates. They have pre-commitments to spend much (or even more than all) of their incomes, hence behave like highly leveraged corporations. They are also undiversified, hence the risk factors are set not by covariance with a diversified portfolio or sources of income, but rather by the variance of the oil income stream itself. Political risk is additional. High discount rates act both to raise and lower the depletion rate, so the net effect is indeterminate without knowledge of costs, not considered here. High discount rates sharply lower the effective elasticity of demand, and lead to a cartel policy of "take the money and run."

Analysis of pumping systems for the cooling of underground transmission lines

2019-04-12T07:21:02Z

Analysis of pumping systems for the cooling of underground transmission lines KoÄ í, Paul FrantiÅ¡ek; Glicksman, Leon R.; Rohsenow, Warren Max Various pumping arrangements and their pressure profile control for forced cooling of long pipe type transmission lines were investigated. In order to overcome the extensive friction head losses and provide ample cable cooling, a number of pump stations has to be used. Since the inner line segments cannot be provided with pressure control head tanks, line blockages, flow resistance changes, flow rate changes, pump shutdowns, or other imbalances in one segment can alter the pressure profile along the entire line, and, when two head tanks are used, create transverse flow. Using experimental and analytical methods, it was determined that the pump - relief valve combination operating as a constant flow source is superior to the pump - relief valve combination operating as a constant pressure source, and that the configuration consisting of an even number of loops, each loop having the opposite flow direction from its neighbor's, is the best solution when operated with only one pressure control head tank. The simplest, and yet effective, line pressure profile control appears to be the pump bypass, which could be easily implemented on existing installations. The head tank pressure adjustment, however, is the most effective line pressure profile control scheme, and should be considered when a new system is being designed. From the analysis performed on an electric analogy model it was found, that the head tank pressure adjustment or the pump bypass would be sufficient to mainain the line pressure profile within its working limits for all practical imbalance sizes, and that, to extend the range of either of these line pressure profile controls, the emergency pump shutdown and the pump bypass itself should be based on the pump discharge, rather than the pump inlet pressure. Forced cooling of underground electric power transmission lines, pt.4

Estimation of aggregate miles of EHV transmission line needs

2019-04-10T21:48:43Z

Estimation of aggregate miles of EHV transmission line needs Markel, Lawrence Craig Regression analysis is used to develop models for the total number of miles of EHV line needed in a power system. These models are not meant to be used to design a transmission system but to examine existing EHV systems to see if general patterns or relationships exist on a system- wide basis. The U.S. was divided into regions and data on regional load and generation characteristics was obtained for the years 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990. Regressions were performed on this combination cross-sectional and time-series data to develop equations for circuit miles of EHV line and for gigawatt-miles (miles of line X power-carrying capability) of EHV line. t- and F-tests were used to determine the statistical significance of the model parameters. The independent variables (system characteristics) found to be most significant in determining the miles of EHV line include the generating capacity of the system, the area (square miles) of the region, the percent of area that is metropolitan, the number of generating plants in the system, the percent of energy used for industrial purposes, the percent of generating capacity which is hydro- electric, and the average distance between plants and load centers. -The equations developed are multiplicative, of the form miles of line = K7Xf i4' where the Xi's are system characteristics. "Expansion" models attempting to determine the additions to the existing grid in a 10 year period were also postulated. However, they are not as statistically significant as the "static" models. Methods of using the models to investigate new plant siting strategies, such as power parks or offshore nuclear plants, are discussed. Analysis of the effect of trends in plant siting and construction, such as the growing scarcity of potential plant sites near load centers, is also mentioned. The limitations, uses, and possible extensions of this type of model are also described. Essentially constitutes a M.S. thesis in the Dept. of Electrical Engineering

The value of flexibility

2019-04-12T08:40:44Z

The value of flexibility Kulatilaka, Nalin This paper develops a framework to evaluate the economic value derived from a firm's ability to switch between different modes of production in the face of uncertain prices. The model, cast as a set of simulataneous stochastic dynamic programs, is solved for the ex-ante value of flexibility, the optimal technology choice, and critical prices at which switching is optimal. This general model of flexibility is used to synthesize several recent studies of real options encountered in capital budgeting. For example, the model yields as special cases (a) the value of waiting to invest, (b) the option to abandon, (c) the value of having an option to shut down, (d) the replacement timing and technology choice, and (e) the "time to build" option for irreversible projects that require sequential outlays. We use an illustrative example with two modes to show that the value of flexibility is monotonically increasing with price variability and switching frequency. The value of flexibility can contribute about a 15 percent improvement over the better fixed technology. Early in the life of the project it is optimal to switch modes when the difference between values under one mode (for the current period and optimal switching thereafter) and the other mode exceeds the switching cost. Towards the end of the economic life, the above difference must be significantly larger for swithcing to occur.

Information systems to provide leading indicators of energy sufficiency : a report to the Federal Energy Administration

2019-04-12T07:21:01Z

Information systems to provide leading indicators of energy sufficiency : a report to the Federal Energy Administration MIT Energy Lab Final working paper, submitted to Office of Data Policy, Federal Energy Administration in connection with A Study of information systems to provide leading indicators of energy sufficiency, (FEA Contract no. 14-01-001-2040).

Improving heat pump performance via compressor capacity control : analysis and test

2019-04-11T02:45:36Z

Improving heat pump performance via compressor capacity control : analysis and test Hiller, Carl Clifford; Glicksman, Leon R. The heat pump has long been of interest as a heating device because of its ability to deliver more heat energy than it consumes. The present work outlines past, present, and future developments in heat pump technology and indicates key areas of improvement. One method of improvement, the capacity controlled heat pump, has been studied in detail. An analysis of conventional and capacity controlled air-to-air heat pumps has been performed, using detailed computer simulations. New system sizing guidelines are outlined for capacity controlled units, resulting in as much as a 30% per year energy savings over conventional heat pumps in two of the six locations studied. Economic studies, comparing conventional and capacity controlled heat pumps to gas and electrical resistance heat, with and without air conditioning, indicate that capacity controlled heat pumps could soon be superior to gas heating in some locations, depending on energy prices. All of the economic studies have been done for a range of gas and electricity prices, and include amortization of capital costs as well as operating costs. Finally, preliminary development work on a new, potentially efficient and inexpensive, continuously variable compressor capacity control device is described. Test results on components of the early suction-valve cut-off control mechanism indicate that it is possible to design a controllable device to function in high speed (3600 RPM) compressors. However, more development work is needed. Prepared in association with Heat Transfer Laboratory, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Computer-aided analysis of critical technologies for hydrogen manufacture

2019-04-12T08:40:42Z

Computer-aided analysis of critical technologies for hydrogen manufacture Evans, Lawrance B. The development of new hampered by exhaustive researc several alternative production need for a tool which can prov guide the selection of the mos identify the critical areas of process most efficient. This hydrogen manufacture, consider future of synfuels technology, flowsheet simulation can fill chemical processes is often h into many variations in methods. There is a real ide early information to help t promising routes and research to make the final study uses the example of ed very important for the to demonstrate how computer this need. Three different hydrogen production processes were modeled with the ASPEN flowsheet simulation system. Steam reforming and partial oxidation of methane were studied separately and then compared. For each model the process efficiency, defined in terms of product purity, yield, and cost, was analyzed as a function of the operating conditions. Trends in behavior were plotted and methodologies for process optimization found. On comparing the processes, steam reforming was identified as the more cost effective process. Partial oxidation, although resulting in lower initial capital investment for the same size plant, has higher operating costs associated with the need for a pure oxygen feed. This process is competitive with steam reforming only if a very low cost source of oxygen is available. The third process simulated was electrolysis of water. This demonstrated the method by which flowsheet simulation can be used to compare processes based on very different technologies. It was found that because of the cost of the large amount of electricity needed, electrolysis produces hydrogen at several times the cost as that of the steam reforming process. In addition, the capital expenditure for a large scale electrolysis plant is much higher than the same size steam reforming facility because of the high cost of the necessary electrolysis equipment. This suggests that electrolysis is not a viable alternative for hydrogen manufacture on the scale needed for future synfuels processes.

A model for the determination of optimal electric generating system expansion patterns

2019-04-12T08:40:40Z

A model for the determination of optimal electric generating system expansion patterns Farrar, Dennis Lloyd; Woodruff, Frederick Long range electric generating capacity expansion planning requires consideration of a diverse range of issues including economic and financial evaluations, environmental protection, and overall system reliability. To determine the optimum system expansion plan, it is necessary to create a synthesis of combinations of possible technical alternatives, observe the intertemporal effects of the system along the dimensions of the problem, and choose the set of alternatives which best meets the objectives while satisfying all constraints. A system of integrated techniques and computer codes (called the Generation Expansion Model) has been formulated to evaluate the economic, environmental, and reliability aspects of regional generation expansion strategies. The computer codes comprising the model are used serially and in an iterative manner to find the set of plant and site alternatives and the corresponding plant operating histories which will minimize the total present worth of all capital, operating, and fuel costs while satisfying the demand for electricity, fuel availability, site availability, pollution limits, and reliability constraints. Prototypical versions of the three major submodels of the Generation Expansion Model exist; initial testing of the capabilities and sensitivities of the first two submodels and their interface is currently being performed Essentially constitutes a M.S. thesis in the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Civil Engineering

The prediction of friction factors in turbulent flow for an under ground forced cooled pipe-type electrical transmission cable system

2019-04-12T08:40:26Z

The prediction of friction factors in turbulent flow for an under ground forced cooled pipe-type electrical transmission cable system Beckenbach, Joseph William; Glicksman, Leon R.; Rohsenow, Warren Max Forced cooled systems for underground, oil filled, pipe-type electrical transmission cable systems are becoming increasingly common in large urban centers. In systems of this type there exist a number of electrical transmission cables in an oil filled conduit. These cables are wrapped with a semi-circular, protective skid wire, which increases the turbulence in the flow and up until now has prevented any accurate or realistic prediction of the pressure drop. An equation has been used which correlates the friction factor of the rough surface which has been developed which combines the effects of the rough and smooth surface on the flow to obtain a friction factor vs. Reynolds Number plot for the entire pipe-type cable system. This theory has been written in the form of a FORTRAN IV computer program which accepts as input the geometrical dimensions of a system and yields as output the friction factor and corresponding Reynolds Number for the entire pipe-type cable geometry. The results predicted from the theory are consistently 15-30% above the experimentally determined values. Forced cooling of underground electric power transmission lines, pt. 3

The competitive floor to world oil prices

2019-04-12T08:40:44Z

The competitive floor to world oil prices Adelman, Morris Albert In this OPEC crisis or the next, oil prices may fall to the competitive floor. At the high-cost end of the spectrum, it would take a price as low as $4 to produce an immediate shutdown of nearly half of capacity in the United States, and as low as $2 to do the same in the North Sea. A price of $10 would stop development investment for the bulk of U.S. oil and over a third of North Sea oil. Capacity would therefore decline by roughly 6 percent per year. At the low-cost end, assuming continued competition and completely independent decision-making, a price of $5 would make it profitable for the OPEC nations to expand output to about 60 million barrels daily. This price would be sustainable past 1995. This projection is not a forecast, however.

Finite element nonlinear transient response analysis of simple 2-d structures subjected to impulse or impact loads

2019-04-09T17:46:38Z

Finite element nonlinear transient response analysis of simple 2-d structures subjected to impulse or impact loads Rodal, José J. A.; Witmer, Emmett A. This study was intended to contribute to the development of more rational practical methods for predicting the transient responses of structures which are subjected to transient and impact loads. Attention is restricted to the global structural response; local (or stress-wave- induced) response is not included. The use of higher-order assumed- displacement finite elements (FE) is investigated to seek more efficient and accurate strain predictions; these studies were carried out for 2-d structural deformations typical of beams and curved rings to minimize cost and labor. These studies were done in conjunction with the use of various approximations to the nonlinear strain-displacement relations since large deflections and rotations need to be taken into account. Transient large-deflection elastic-plastic structural response predictions are made for these various FE models for impulsively-loaded beams and a free initially-circular ring, for which high quality experimental measurements of strains and deflections are available. From comparisons of (a) predictions with each other for the various FE models investigated and (b) predictions vs. experimental data, it appears to be more efficient for the same number of degree-of-freedom (DOF) unknowns to use the simple 4 DOF/node elements rather than fewer of the more sophisticated 8 DOF/node elements although the latter provide a physically superior and more realistic distribution of strain along the structural span at any given time instant compared with the use of the 4 DOF/N elements. Comparisons of measured with predicted transient strain and final deformation of a thin aluminum beam with both ends clamped and impacted at midspan by a 1-inch diameter steel sphere show very good agreement. Extensions to the present analysis to accommodate more general types of fragments and fragment-impacted structures are discussed briefly. Originally presented as the first author's thesis, (M.S.) in the M.I.T. Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Approximate transmission network models for use in analysis and design

2019-04-12T07:21:07Z

Approximate transmission network models for use in analysis and design Crevier, Joseph Francois Daniel Prepared in association with Electric Power Systems Engineering Laboratory and Dept. of Civil Engineering, M.I.T

Western Europe natural gas trade : final report

2019-04-12T08:40:43Z

Western Europe natural gas trade : final report International Natural Gas Trade Project

The economics of Iranian oil

2019-04-12T08:40:24Z

The economics of Iranian oil Crandall, Maureen S.

Heat conduction in the cable insulation of force-cooled underground electrical power transmission systems

2019-04-12T08:40:25Z

Heat conduction in the cable insulation of force-cooled underground electrical power transmission systems Sanders, Joel Vincent; Glicksman, Leon R.; Rohsenow, Warren Max Forced-cooled systems for oil-filled pipe-type cable circuits have recently been considered. In such systems the conduction resistance through the paper insulation of the cables is the limiting thermal resistance. Assuming bilateral symmetry, steady-state conditions, and two-dimensional heat transfer, a FORTRAN IV computer program was written to solve the heat conduction problem in the cable insulation for arbitrary configurations of a three-cable system. For a steel pipe, a cable system is most susceptible to overheating in the equilateral configuration with the three cables touching. Proximity effects are very significant in forced cooling, especially when cables are not provided with a copper tape under the insulation moisture seal assembly, accounting for as much as 21% of the total oil temperature rise between refrigeration stations. This figure, however, is reduced to 8% when 0.005 inch thick copper tape is present. Forced cooling of underground electric power transmission lines, pt.2

Feasibility and cost of converting oil- and coal-fired utility boilers to intermittent use of natural gas

2019-04-12T08:40:46Z

Feasibility and cost of converting oil- and coal-fired utility boilers to intermittent use of natural gas Fay, James A.; Golomb, Dan S.; Zachariades, Savvakis C. The continuous or intermittent use of natural gas in place of oil or coal in existing utility boilers would reduce emissions of sulfur and thereby the concentration of sulfate ions in precipitation. This report examines the technological feasibility and capital cost of retrofitting oil and coal fired utility boilers to burn intermittently natural gas and the parent fuel. Using extensive studies of the retrofitting of such boilers to burn synthetic gas of low to moderate heating value (LBG), it is found that natural gas closely simulates the combustion properties of LBG of medium heating value. Based upon this comparison, it is concluded that little or no modifications to the boiler are required to achieve the same boiler rating as when burning the original fuel, and that only a small efficiency penalty must be paid. Examination of the history of four eastern utility boiler conversions from oil to natural gas confirms these performance estimates, and shows that conversion costs for in-plant equipment are very small, less than 19 $(1985)/KW in all instances, while conversion times are less than one year (with little down time beyond that required for annual maintenance). Pipelining costs will vary with the local conditions.

Electric power unit commitment scheduling using a dynamically evolving mixed integer program

2019-04-12T08:40:39Z

Electric power unit commitment scheduling using a dynamically evolving mixed integer program Gruhl, Jim A quasi-optimal technique ('quasi' in that the technique discards unreasonable optimums), realized by a dynamically evolving mixed integer program, is used to develop regional electric power unit commitment schedules for a one week time span. This sophisticated, yet computationally feasible, method is used to develop the hourly bulk dispatch schedules required to meet electric power demands at a given reliability level while controlling the associated dollar costs and environmental impacts. The electric power system considered is a power exchange pool of closely coupled generation facilities supplying a region approximately the size of New England. Associated with a tradeoff between a given cost of production and the relevant ecological factors, an optimum generation schedule is formulated which considers fossil, nuclear, hydroelectric, gas turbine and pumped storage generation facilities; power demands, reliabilities, operating constraints, startup and shutdown factors, geographic considerations, as well as various contracts such as interregional power exchanges, interruptible loads, gas contracts and nuclear fuel optimum batch utilization. A prerequisite of the model was that it be flexible enough for use in the evaluation of the optimum system performance associated with hypothesized expansion patterns. Another requirement was that the effects of changed scheduling factors could be predicted, and if necessary corrected with a minimal computational effort. A discussion of other existing and potential solution techniques is included, with an example of the proposed solution technique used as a scheduler. Although the inputs are precisely defined, this paper does not deal with the explicit fabrication of inputs to the model, such as e.g. river flow prediction or load forecasting. Rather, it is meant as a method of incorporating those inputs into the optimum operation scheduling process. Prepared in association with Electric Power Systems Engineering Laboratory and Dept. of Civil Engineering, M.I.T.

The effects of regulation on the performance of nuclear power in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany

2019-04-12T08:40:43Z

The effects of regulation on the performance of nuclear power in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany Hulkower, Seth David The nuclear power industry of the Federal Republic of Germany has achieved consistently better reactor operating performance than has the U.S. industry. Earlier work has suggested that a major source of the difference is in capacity factor losses caused by regulatory practices. An investigation of the problems attributed to regulation in the United States, which caused losses from 1975 to 1984, was performed. Fifteen major issues were identified, which comprised 85 percent of all regulatory losses. The performance of the German industry then was analyzed to discover differences in regulatory practices. Most of the U.S. regulatory losses were found to be associated with steam generators, reactor coolant systems, and containment systems. The regulatory losses in the Federal Republic of Germany included the retraining of a plant staff after an accident, a long-term derating of a plant because of inadequate backup safety systems, and several smaller problems. The German industry applies inspection and repair standards for steam generators that equal or exceed U.S regulations, and it treats these losses as part of normal plant maintenance. However, the German industry also assigned the largest single cause of capacity loss in BWRs--recirculation pipe replacement--to the voluntary maintenance category because they weren't strictly ordered to shut down, only pressured with the threat of stringent inspection standards. When the BWR pipe replacement outages were added to the Federal Republic of Germany's total regulatory loss, and the steam generator losses were subtracted from the U.S. total, the Federal Republic of Germany was found to have greater regulatory losses. It can therefore be concluded that the sources of poor U.S. performance relative to the Federal Republic of Germany come from areas other than regulation. Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technology and Policy Program, 1986

Energy consumption and fuel choice by residential and commercial consumers in the United States

2019-04-11T02:45:33Z

Energy consumption and fuel choice by residential and commercial consumers in the United States Baughman, Martin Lynn; Joskow, Paul L.

Economic-environmental-security transform curves of electric power system production schedules and simulations

2019-04-12T08:40:39Z

Economic-environmental-security transform curves of electric power system production schedules and simulations Gruhl, Jim A quasi-optimal technique ('quasi' in that the technique discards unreaonable optimums), realized by a dynamially evolving mixed integer program, is used to develop regional electric power maintenanee and production sample schedules, as well as unit commitment sample schedules. This sophisticated, yet omputationally feasible, method is used to develop the bulk dispatch schedules required to meet electric power demands at various preset reliability levels while oentrolling the associated dollar and environmental impact consequences. This report considers a hypothetical system of about twelve power plants situated close to one another on the same river system. The maintenance and unit commitment scheduling mechanisms are used to display the tradeoffs which exist between the economic costs, environmental consequences and reliability levels of all possible optimum schedules. These tradeoff, or transform, surfaces are generated from acoul schedules for system opertio. Also generated is a sample system imulation. Three possible generation expansion plans are compared and their potential operating performances are displayed. These specifically hypothesized expansion plans were tested os two different possible future load demand curves. The results show that there is great value in the use of an accurate dollar and environmental impact simulator. Hypothetical data has been used, but effort has been made to make this data as representl&tve as possible. The results of this project show that a great amount of flexibility is available to both the operations scheduler and the system expansion planner, and that the dollar costs, water and air pollution impacts cover a wide range of consequences. These results also show that S.'i.opkebably very wasteful to operate or plan a system using any simple, single- minded measure of desirability as a decision making strategy. Prepared in association with Electric Power Systems Engineering Laboratory and Dept. of Civil Engineering, M.I.T

A numerical comparison of international light water reactor performance, 1975-1984

2019-04-12T08:40:45Z

A numerical comparison of international light water reactor performance, 1975-1984 Wilson, Christopher T. A numerical comparison of international light water reactor operating performance from 1975 to 1984 was carried out in an attempt to identify trends and discrepancies in PWR and BWR performance. The countries examined were: France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States. Reactor performance losses for each country were broken down into many categories for examination and comparison including: Fuel, Reactor Coolant System, Steam Generators, Refueling, Turbines, Generators, Condensers, Circulatory/Service/Component Cooling Water Systems, Economic, Husan, Regulatory, and Unknown. Additionally, losses were also distinguished as forced or scheduled. All loss categories were plotted as functions of both time and reactor age. It was found that from 1975 to 1984 the Swiss PWR and BWR performance was the highest averaging 85.8X and 88.0X respectively. The lowest PWR performance was in Sweden averaging 54.4X. Germany was found to have the lowest BWR performance averaging 51.1X. For the PWR's, differences in regulatory, steam generator, and economic losses were found to be the common contributors to low performance. For BWR's, differences in regulatory, reactor coolant system, and fuel losses were found to be the common contributors to low performance. Time and age dependent trends were observed for losses in many of the loss categories. Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1986

Cooling of underground transmission lines : heat transfer measurements

2019-04-12T08:40:27Z

Cooling of underground transmission lines : heat transfer measurements Slutz, Robert Atwater The heat dissipated in the conductor of a forced cooled pipe type cable must pass through two thermal resistances in series: the conduction resistance of the cable insulation and the convection resistance due to forced and natural convection from the cable surface to the oil. The upper limit to the convection resistance was determined by natural convection heat transfer tests on a full scale model of a pipe type cable system. It was found that conduction resistance is more than four times larger than convection resistance for cables designed for 138 kv and higher voltages. Therefore, to accurately predict the temperature inside the cable for a given oil temperature and current, a precise prediction of convection heat transfer is necessary. The solution for conduction within the cable must include effects due to cable splices and the proximity of one cable to another. Forced cooling of underground electric power transmission lines, pt.1

Engineering estimates of transmission and distribution equipment costs

2019-04-12T08:40:24Z

Engineering estimates of transmission and distribution equipment costs Sequeira, Sergio Guimarães de; Baughman, Martin Lynn

Fighting the last war : preparations for the next oil crisis

2019-04-12T11:21:51Z

Fighting the last war : preparations for the next oil crisis Lynch, Michael C. This is a revised version of a paper presented to the 1986 Midwest Political Science Association Meeting, April 10, 1986

Quantification of aquatic environmental impact of electric power generation

2019-04-10T21:48:47Z

Quantification of aquatic environmental impact of electric power generation Gruhl, Jim This project proposes a method for creating, to the extent of their predictability, the proper and timely forecasts of the aquatic ecosystem consequences of electric power system operation. A procedure is developed and intended for use in quantifying the ecological sacrifices associated with a number of desirable regional dispatch schedules. With the use of this technique, associated with a given reliability level, optimum scheduling schemes can be used to evaluate optimum dollar cost - environmental impact pairings. A prerequisite of the model was that it be flexible enough for use in the evaluation of aquasystem impacts from either existing or hypothesized systems, that is, that it could be used either as an operational tool or as a simulation tool. Specifically demonstrated is the feasibility of the quantification of various ecological impacts and its usefulness in effecting compatibility between the power generating facilities and the aquatic ecosystem into which they have been incorporated. The method of quantification involves a probabilistic systems approach which includes a due regard for the vagaries of nature. Essentially calculated is the change in desirability to man of the ecosystem as influenced by the losses of organisms, such losses being computed from the probabilistic curves of affected populations convolved with the probability of impact curves. Predictive techniques are developed for the avoidance of mortalities due to thermotoxic synergisms. A discussion of an atmospheric model counterpart is presented to demonstrate the existence of compatible and consistent atmospheric quantification procedures. This project is primarily intended as a state-of-the-art survey of the research areas contributing to this area with particular attention paid to the precise input modeling techniques available. However, a new method is presented for combining these inputs in a thorough and consistent manner to obtain a meaningful environmental impact measure. Prepared in association with Electric Power Systems Engineering Laboratory and Dept. of Civil Engineering, M.I.T

East Asia/Pacific natural gas trade : final report

2019-04-12T11:21:50Z

East Asia/Pacific natural gas trade : final report International Natural Gas Trade Project

Interfuel substitution in the consumption of energy in the United States

2019-04-12T07:21:02Z

Interfuel substitution in the consumption of energy in the United States Baughman, Martin Lynn; Joskow, Paul L.; Zerhoot, Frederick S. The effects of alternative public policies on the consumption and prices of various forms of energy in the United States depends critically on the nature of consumer demands for fuels and the supply characteristics of these fuels. Previous work on energy demand has tended to concentrate on the demand for a particular fuel as determined by standard economic variables such as the price of the fuel, income levels, sometimes the price of alternative fuels, and other demographic characteristics of the consuming population. In this work the consumer decision making process is viewed as being composed of two steps. First, the consumer decides that he wants a particular service and, secondly, seeks to find the fuel that will provide this service most cheaply. This view leads us to concentrate on substitution possibilities among fuels for particular services rather than own-price elasticities for a particular fuel. This paper presents results for the determinants of energy consumption in the residential and commercial sector in the United States. First, a discussion of the conceptual model used for fuel choice decisions is presented. Then, empirical results are given for appliance choices in the residential sector for four selected appliances and for the "fuel-split" of aggregate energy consumption among the three fuels used in the residential and commercial sector. The own-price and cross-price elasticities are estimated and discussed. Next, the paper discusses the determinants of total energy demand in the residential and commercial sector and presents empirical results for a simple flow adjustment model. The long run price elasticity of total demand in this sector is estimated to be about -0.5 while the short run (one year) value is -0.15. Finally, the estimated relationships are used to make projections to 1980 for alternative price scenarios. These results show that significant consumption responses to changing fuel prices can be expected and, further, that some states are much more dramatically impacted than others.

Electric generation production scheduling using a quasi-optimal sequential technique

2019-04-09T16:03:09Z

Electric generation production scheduling using a quasi-optimal sequential technique Gruhl, Jim A quasi-optimal technique ('quasi' in that the technique discards unreasonable optimums), realized by a dynamically evolving mixed integer program, is used to develop regional electric power maintenance and production schedules for a two to five year planning horizon. This sophisticated, yet computationally feasible, method is used to develop the bulk dispatch schedules required to meet electric power demands at a given reliability level while controlling the associated dollar costs and environmental impacts. The electric power system considered is a power exchange pool of closely coupled generation facilities supplying a region approximately the size of New England. Associated with a tradeoff between a given cost of production and the relevant ecological factors, an optimum production schedule is formulated which considers fossil, nuclear, hydroelectric, gas turbine and pumped storage generation facilities; power demands, reliabilities, maintenance and nuclear refueling requisites; labor coordination, geographic considerations, as well as various contracts such as interregional power exchanges, interruptible loads, gas contracts and nuclear refueling contracts. A prerequisite of the model was that it be flexible enough for use in the evaluation of the optimum system performance associated with hypothesized expansion patterns. Another requirement was that the effects of changed scheduling factors could be predicted, and if necessary corrected with a minimum computational effort. A discussion of other possible optimization techniques is included, however, this study was primarily intended as a development of a static procedure; a dynamic technique counterpart with a more probabilistic. approach is being undertaken as a Part II of this study and at its conclusion the two techniques will be compared. Although the inputs are precisely defined, this paper does not deal explicitly with any of the fabrications of the required inputs to the model. Rather, it is meant as a method of incorporating those inputs into the optimum operation schedule process. Prepared in association with Electric Power Systems Engineering Laboratory and Dept. of Civil Engineering, M.I.T

Controlling acid deposition by seasonal gas substitution in coal- and oil-fired power plants

2019-04-12T08:40:50Z

Controlling acid deposition by seasonal gas substitution in coal- and oil-fired power plants Galeucia, Gary B. Acid deposition, primarily the result of sulfur emissions due to fossil fuel combustion, is a serious environmental problem. Resolving the problem will impose costs measuring in the billions of dollars. Based on evidence that the rate of vet sulfate deposition in eastern North America is higher in the summer half of the year than in the vinter half of the year, seasonal control of emissions is proposed as a means of minimizing acid deposition control costs. This paper evaluates the proposal that natural gas be substituted for coal and oil in electric pover plants during April through September. A model is presented that simulates the substitution of natural gs for coal and oil in pover plants in the eastern 31 state region so as to minimize total costs with respect to deposition reductions at an Adirondack receptor. The results of the model show: 1) changes in fuel coansumption as a result of substitution, 2) the increased effectiveness of seasonal versus year-round controls. and 3) the costs of achieving various levels of deposition reductioan at an Adirondack receptor. The costs of seasonal gas substitution. in terms of emission and deposition reductions, are compared to cost estimates for other proposed control methods and strategies. An example is given that calculates the cost with respect to deposition of a source-oriented control strategy, so that the cost of seasonal gas substitution can be fairly compared with it. The conclusion of these cost comparisons is that seasonal gas substitution is cost-competitive vith some other control methods. at least in some states. Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1986

Extending the life of nuclear power plants : technical and institutional issues

2019-04-10T21:48:52Z

Extending the life of nuclear power plants : technical and institutional issues Golay, Michael W.; Moinzadeh, John H. Managing nuclear power plant aging is one of the important technical issues which needs to be addressed by utilities in order to extend the operating life of some of the early LWR power stations. Plant managers must understand complex aging phenomena, identify aging effects, anticipate failure, and mitigate the aging process. Typically, the age-related design limits of crucial components are not known, and this information usually does not appear to be easily available from the equipment vendor. Electrical cables, insulation and instrumentation are most susceptible to age-related degradation. material degradation due to corrosion is the main costly problem affecting a small but important portion of piping and major equipment. Upgrading the plant, replacing aging equipment, and implementing good maintenance, surveillance and spare parts inventory control programs are actions a utility can take to extend the life of operating nuclear plants. Considerable institutional uncertainties are associated with nuclear plant life extension. These spring mainly from the absence of clearly defined policies by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission stating the technical and procedural requirements for plant life extension. From precedents established to-date, it is reasonable to expect plant operation to be permitted for most plants for a total of 40 years after start of commerical operation. As a large share of the net discounted benefits of extended life operation may be derived from the first decade of additional life, the basis for utility investments for life extension is thus assured.

Impacts of new energy technology using generalized input-output analysis

2019-04-10T21:48:46Z

Impacts of new energy technology using generalized input-output analysis Just, James Edward Traditional input-output analysis was modified to include air pollution emissions, employment, and other accessory variables. Engineering studies of high and low DTU coal gasification and the gas turbine topping cycle were then utilized to incorporate these new technologies into the 1980 input-output table that was projected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These two techniques are shown to be able to correct many previous objections to input-output analysis and to have applicability to a wide variety of practical problems. A series of 1985 projections featuring high, medium and low growth of energy consumption (both with and without the new technologies) were also made. Economic and environmental impacts were then calculated for these alternative futures. The major conclusions are: 1. Total investment in general and capital good industries in particular (primarily turbogenerator manufacturers, boiler makers, and construction equipment manufacturers) are quite sensitive to energy use growth rates (especially electricity). 2. Introduction of high tu coal gasification will aggravate the demand for investment funds and introduction of the second generation gas turbine topping cycle (with or without low Btu coal qasification) will decrease the demand. These technologies will have their major impacts on the industries listed above. 3. Sliaht changes in the overall growth rates of total personal consumption expenditures and government spending result in large fluctuations in total investment. 4. If high energy qrowth continues and if investment is to remain within its historical limits as a per centage of GNP, energy investment will become a laraer and larqer part of total investment. 5. While interest rates are assumed to be the balancino mechanism between supply of and demand for investment funds, the very act of saving more money (which is induced by hiqher interest rates) means that less can be spend on consumption goods. This in turn lessens the demand for investment funds because the qrowth rates of consumption sectors are lovwer. This indirect effect of interest rates on investment has been little studied but may be quite important. The policy implications of these results are also discussed. Also issued as a Ph.D. thesis in the Dept. of Electrical Engineering, 1973

Estimation of transmission and distribution equipment needs

2019-04-10T19:27:28Z

Estimation of transmission and distribution equipment needs Bottaro, Drew; Baughman, Martin Lynn

Continued development of nodal methods for nuclear reactor analysis

2019-04-12T08:40:50Z

Continued development of nodal methods for nuclear reactor analysis Henry, Allan F.

Dynamic energy system modeling - interfuel competition

2019-04-09T18:10:24Z

Dynamic energy system modeling - interfuel competition Baughman, Martin L. This work reports the formulation, development, validation, and applications of a medium to long range dynamic model for interfuel competition in the aggregated U. S. The economic cost structure, investment decisions, and physical constraints are included specifically in the supply models for coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear fuels, as well as in the consuming sectors residential and commercial, industrial processing, transportation and electricity. The model simulates the development of supply, the fuel selection process in the consuming sectors, the depletion of the resources, and resolves these into fuels consumed cost-price trends in the energy markets of the U. S. The validation issue is addressed at length through a number of considerations, including comparing the model performance to past reported behavior of the energy system. it is applied to a series of scenarios or case studies to assess the impact of a variety of technologies, policy considerations, and postulated occurrences on the future energy outlook. Here it is seen the model can be a useful tool, forcing a consistent assessment of possible future trends. The model is useful for depicting the effects of policy or hypothesized changes in our energy economy in a complete system framework. Also issued as a Ph.D. thesis in the Dept. of Electrical Engineering, 1972

A review of the state-level advanced utility simulation model

2019-04-12T08:40:49Z

A review of the state-level advanced utility simulation model Baughman, Martin L.

Predicting circulation and dispersion near coastal power plants : applications using models TEA and ELA

2019-04-11T09:10:26Z

Predicting circulation and dispersion near coastal power plants : applications using models TEA and ELA Adams, E. Eric; Colser, Douglas J. This report describes how a pair of two-dimensional numerical models (TEA and ELA) have been coupled to simulate thermal plume dispersion in the vicinity of coastal power plants. The work follows previous study by Kaufman and Adams (1981), but differs from most previous studies in that near field mixing is represented explicitly by specifying entrainment and mixed discharge fluxes as model boundary conditions. The models have been applied to two power plants-Brayton Point Generating Station and Millstone Nuclear Power Plant. Comparison against field data shows generally good agreement in both cases, and computational costs are reasonable. Several areas for additional research have been identified.

A methodology for the assessment of the proliferation resistance of nuclear power systems: topical report

2019-04-12T08:40:48Z

A methodology for the assessment of the proliferation resistance of nuclear power systems: topical report Papazoglou, Ioannis Agamennon A methodology for the assessment of the differ- ential resistance of various nuclear power systems to misuse for the production of nuclear weapons is developed. In the context of this study, a nuclear system comprises a particular fuel cycle and the political/institutional framework in which it oper- ates. The latter may be country-specific. The methodology is based on the principles of Multiattribute Decision Analysis, wherein a set of in- dices or attributes which characterize the prolifera- tion resistance of nuclear systems is defined and evaluated for particular systems. Emphasis has been placed on delineating the logical structure of the problem, rather than on rank ordering the various systems of interest via techniques which aggregate the attribute values in a consistent manner. However, examples of the application of decision analysis in the latter situation have also been given to illustrate the potential of this approach to the proliferation problem.

Transformation of coal mineral matter during pulverized coal combustion

2019-04-11T02:44:51Z

Transformation of coal mineral matter during pulverized coal combustion Beer, Janos M.; Sarofim, Adel F. The theoretical development of a sequence of mathematical sub-models capable of calculating the fouling tendency of a coal based on microscopic analysis of the coal mineral matter is described. The sub-models interpret computer controlled-scanning electron microscope analysis data in terms of mineral size and chemical composition distributions; follow the transformation of these mineral property distributions during the combustion of the coal; determine the probability of the resultant fly ash particles impacting on boiler-tube surfaces and of their sticking upon impaction. The sub-models are probabilistic, and take account of the particle-to-particle variation of coal mineral matter and fly ash properties by providing mean values and variances for particle size, chemical composition and viscosity. The various sub- models are combined into a Coal Fouling Tendency (CFT) computer code. Comparison of CFT modeling results obtained for any coal or coal blend with those obtained for a coal whose behavior in a given boiler plant is known, can give useful information on their relative fouling tendencies. The report also includes data on the deposition characteristics of five coals or coal blends, obtained from combustion experiments in the 1-2 MW flame tunnel at MIT. The measurement data were used for validation of the CFT calculations, and for ranking the five fuels with respect to their fouling behavior. Similar ranking of other coals, without combustion testing, can be based solely on results from the CFT model, and examples are given in the report.

Evaluation of thermogalvanic cells for the conversion of heat to electricity

2019-04-09T16:29:45Z

Evaluation of thermogalvanic cells for the conversion of heat to electricity Tester, Jefferson W.

Utilization of geopressured resources in the oxidation organic waste in supercritical water phase I final report

2019-04-11T09:10:30Z

Utilization of geopressured resources in the oxidation organic waste in supercritical water phase I final report Diaz, Alexander F.

Fundamental studies of oxidation kinetics and salt precipitation in supercritical water: final NASA project report, volume 1: research summary

2019-04-11T09:10:29Z

Fundamental studies of oxidation kinetics and salt precipitation in supercritical water: final NASA project report, volume 1: research summary Tester, Jefferson W.

High-flux solar photon processes: opportunities for applications

2019-04-11T09:10:35Z

High-flux solar photon processes: opportunities for applications Steinfeld, Jeffrey I.

Externality valuation versus systemwide analysis : identifying cost and emissions reduction strategies for electric service

2019-04-12T08:38:44Z

Externality valuation versus systemwide analysis : identifying cost and emissions reduction strategies for electric service Connors, Stephen R. In an effort to require electric utilities to assess the environmental impacts of their activities, public utilities commissions nationwide have been turning to the use of environmental externality valuation as a tool in integrated resource planning. To date, policy discussions have focused predominantly upon the correct value and calculation of externality adders, rather than their use and applicability as a planning tool. This paper discusses the use and utility of externality valuation for identifying low-cost, low-emissions electric service strategies. Using data obtained from a broad based examination of New England's electric service options, this paper compares the externality valuation concepts with the information generally obtained from electric power system simulation and production-costing analyses. While a valid economic concept, the application of externality values is of little use in identifying which strategies are both low-cost and low-emissions, or the specific policy options required to ensure their implementation. Externality valuation should therefore be used only as a last step, to select from among low-cost, low- emissions strategies once the aggregate cost and emissions impacts of those strategies have been identified.

Molecular simulation of gas hydrates : final report to Norsk Hydro

2019-04-09T18:21:51Z

Molecular simulation of gas hydrates : final report to Norsk Hydro Sparks, Kevin A.; Tester, Jefferson W.

Numerical methods for contingent claims analysis of investment decisions

2019-04-11T02:44:49Z

Numerical methods for contingent claims analysis of investment decisions Meehan, James Carl In this thesis I examine the numerical methods used in option valuation with analysis focusing on the more complex options associated with investment decisions. Two options implicit in many projects are identified and analyzed: i) the option to halt construction of a project, and ii) the option to shut down the production lines once the project is complete. The partial differential equations governing the values of these two options are derived, discretized, and solved using numerical techniques. Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1988

Secondary atomization of coal-water fuels for gas turbine applications

2019-04-09T17:03:37Z

Secondary atomization of coal-water fuels for gas turbine applications Yu, T. U.; Beer, J.M. The main research objective is to determine the effect of coal-water fuel (CWF) treatment on atomization quality when applied to an ultrafine coal water fuel (solids loading - 50%) and at elevated pressures. The fuel treatment techniques are expected to produce secondary atomization, i.e., disruptive shattering of CWF droplets subsequent to their leaving the atomizing nozzle. Upon combustion, the finer fuel droplets would then yield better burnout and finer fly ash size distribution, which in turn could reduce problems of turbine blade erosion. The parallel objective was to present quantitative information on the spray characteristics of CWF (average droplet size and spray shape and angle) with and without fuel treatment for purposes of application to the design of CWF-burning gas turbine combustors. The experiments include laser diffraction droplet size measurements and high speed photographic studies of CWF sprays in the MIT Spray Test Facility to determine mean droplet size (mass median diameter), droplet size distribution, and spray shape and angle. For the spray tests at elevated pressures, pressure vessels were constructed and installed in the spray test rig. For support of data analyses, a capillary tube viscometer was used to measure the CWF viscosity at the high shear rate that occurs in an atomizer (> 104 sec' ). A semi-empirical relationship was developed giving the CWF spray droplet size as a function of the characteristic dimensionless parameters of twin-fluid atomization, including the Weber number, the Reynolds number, and the air-to-fuel mass flow ratio. The correlation was tested experimentally and good agreement was found between calculated and measured drop sizes when the high shear viscosity of the CWF was used in the semi-empirical equation. Water and CWF spray tests at elevated pressure were made. Average droplet sizes measured as a function of atomizing air-to-fuel ratios (AFRs) at various chamber pressures show that the droplet mass median diameter (MMD) decreases with increasing AFR at a given chamber pressure and increases with increasing chamber pressure at a given AFR. In particular, the results show that droplet sizes of CWF sprays decrease with increasing chamber pressure if the atomizing air velocity is held constant. Of the fuel treatment techniques investigated, the heating of CWF (flash-atomization) was found to be very effective in reducing droplet size, not only at atmospheric pressure but also at elevated pressure. Secondary atomization by C02 absorption (used in a previous study) had given favorable results on CWF combustion, but in this present case this fuel treatment did not seem to have any observable effect on the drop size distribution of the CWF spray at room temperature. The spray angle was observed to reduce with increasing chamber pressure for given atomizing conditions (AFR, fuel flow rate, fuel temperature). The decreasing entrainment rate per unit length of spray with increasing chamber pressure was mainly responsible for the reduction of the spray angle. The heating of the CWF increased the spray angle, both at atmospheric and elevated pressures. A model was developed to predict spray angle change for the effects of the flash-atomization as a function of AFR, fuel flow rate, and the superheat of the water.

Price discrimination and patent policy

2019-04-11T09:10:35Z

Price discrimination and patent policy Hausman, Jerry A.; MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K. Patent and antitrust policy are often presumed to be in conflict. As an important example, there is ongoing controversy about whether price discrimination by a patent holder is an illegal or socially undesirable exploitation of monopoly power. In this article. we show that no conflict exists in many price discrimination cases. Even ignoring the (dynamic) effects on incentives for innovation, third-degree price discrimination by patent holders can raise (static) social welfare. In fact, Pareto improvements may well occur. Welfare gains occur because price discrimination allows patent holders: (a) to open new markets and (b) to achieve economies of scale or learning. Further, even in cases where discrimination incurs static welfare losses, it may be efficient relative to other mechanisms, such as length of patent life, for rewarding innovators with profits.

Valuing the flexibility of flexible manufacturing systems

2019-04-10T20:48:04Z

Valuing the flexibility of flexible manufacturing systems Kulatilaka, Nalin This paper studies a topical issue: Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS) justification. We contend that current evaluation methods fall short of capturing a key advantage of an FMS: the value of flexibility. We identify various benefits of FMS that arise from the ability to switch between modes of production, and in particular, we model the value derived from the ability to better cope with uncertainty. A model to capture this value must solve for the value of flexibility together with the dynamic operating schedule of the production process. We present a stochastic dynamic programming model that captures the essential elements of this problem. A numerical example further demonstrates the optimal mode switching decision rules. This research has several important managerial implications. It emphasizes the importance of ex ante economic justification of flexible manufacturing systems and proposes a way to modify existing capital budgeting techniques to incorporate the special features of flexibility. As the value of flexibility depends inherently on the design of the manufacturing system, the design and justification stages must be conducted simultaneously. We also show how to include other operating decisions in the valuation model. These can include the investment timing or the decision to temporarily shut down or to abandon the project entirely.

Interdependencies between operating options

2019-04-12T08:38:44Z

Interdependencies between operating options Kulatilaka, Nalin This paper presents a computationally feasible technique to value operating flexibilities in making capital budgeting decisions. We investigate how the value of a project is affected by the simultaneous introduction of several operating options. Previous studies have focused on operating options one at a time. A numerical example demonstrates the options to wait to invest, to abandon, and to temporarily shut down -- first, one at a time and then more than one at a time. -- As expected, the project value increases with the introduction of additional options. Adding new options, however, reduces the value of the previously available options. We also study the impact of adding new options on the critical boundaries at which existing options are exercised. These results help sharpen our intuition about the effects of and interactions between operating options. Easiliy implemented on a Personal Computer, the model is sufficiently general to handle various types of production flexibilities and assumptions regarding the economic environment. Hence, for the first time, we have available a quantitative technique that accounts for operating flexibilities that can be incorporated practically in the capital budgeting process.

Mobilization of colloids in groundwater due to infiltration of water at a coal ash disposal site

2019-04-11T09:10:25Z

Mobilization of colloids in groundwater due to infiltration of water at a coal ash disposal site Gschwend, Phillip M.; Backhus, Debera A.; MacFarlane, John K.; Page, A. L. We investigated groundwaters in the vicinity of a coal ash site near an electric generating station in the western U.S.A. The purpose of the study was to ascertain why fine particles or colloids appear in some subsurface water samples there. If such fine particles are merely introduced during bailing or pumping operations which suspend otherwise immobile soil colloids, we should exclude these particulate materials from the water samples before analysis intended to quantify what is moving through the aquifer. However, if the colloids were truly suspended and moving with the groundwater flow in situ, then we should include their contribution to our assessment of the mobile loads. Application of very careful sampling techniques (slow pumping rates, no atmospheric exposure) did not cause the large quantities of colloids observed previously to disappear from well water in which they occurred. Additionally, the same sampling procedures did not cause similar abun- dances of colloids to appear in waters collected from neighboring wells installed and' developed in the same manner and in the same geologic strata. Thus we believe sampling artifacts do not explain the colloids' presence in the groundwater samples. On the other hand, the groundwater chemistry and the nature of the suspended colloids (size, composition) strongly suggest these fine particles were suspended and therefore moving with the groundwater flow. At wells exhibiting large amounts of suspended colloids (- 10-100mg L-), the water was enriched in CO2 and depleted in 02 relative to nearby locations. The colloids were typically between 0.1 and 2 gm in size and were primarily silicates. These results suggest to us that, where infiltrating water is percolating through a site that has been mixed with coal ash, the secondary carbonate minerals in the soils are being dissolved; removal of this cementing carbonate phase may consequently release soil silicate colloids to be carried in the flowing water. Such processes may enhance contaminant transport in groundwater by augmenting the pollutant load moving in the groundwater, and increasing the permeability of the porous medium to pollutant infiltration with waste water and/or rainwater.

Finding and developing costs in the USA 1945-1985

2019-04-11T09:10:32Z

Finding and developing costs in the USA 1945-1985 Adelman, Morris Albert Development cost is defined as the ratio of development expenditures in a given year to reserves added in that year. Changes in development cost are a good proxy for changes in finding cost and in user cost, because discovery, development, and postponement or holding of hydrocarbons in place, are three competing forms of investment. Popular definitions of "finding" cost are an illogical and useless mixture of discovery and development. Although the discovery of large oil fields peaked before 1930, oil reserves added by development increased then stabilized around 1960. Costs tended if anything to decrease through 1972, but the decrease was mostly a one-time gain through the retreat from a costly regulatory scheme. The first price explosion in 1974 saw a strong decline in oil reserves added. The second price explosion was followed by an increase, but the best performance since 1949-51 came in 1983- 85, when oil prices were declining by nearly one fourth in real terms. High oil and gas prices promoted a drilling boom, which raised factor prices and lowered efficiency. Old-field development was therefore inhibited, but then helped as the boom deflated. Therefore the effect of the steeper price decline of 1986-87 has been mitigated by the decline in cost.

Mineral depletion, with special reference to petroleum

2019-04-11T09:10:31Z

Mineral depletion, with special reference to petroleum Adelman, Morris Albert Two implications of received theory are (1) mineral net prices rise at the riskless interest rate, and (2) in-ground value is equal to the current net price. Both propositions are false. A correct theory has been joined to mistaken premises. Mineral resources are inexhaustible. The economic problem is not the intertemporal allocation of a stock but coping with the cost of a flow of reserve accretions. Mineral scarcity and price are the uncertain fluctuating result of a tug-of-war between diminishing returns versus increasing knowledge. Hence minerals are risky assets. Development cost, finding cost, and user cost (the penalty for development/production today instead of tomorrow) are all substitutes. Hence change in any one is a proxy for change in any other. Development cost is observable, and has been stable in many countries for pro- longed periods. User cost was also stable in the USA. There is no sign of any pattern of gradual depletion and rising cost. A simple model of an individual reservoir explains observed relations of value and price. The rate of interest has both a positive and negative effect upon the rate of reservoir depletion. The net effect of a change is therefore weak. Expropriation of low-cost oil fields, had they been operated independently to maximize value, would have led to drastic increases in depletion rates. The fact of decrease proves collusive restriction of output to maintain prices.

Sinterable ceramic powders from laser-heated gases

2019-04-11T09:10:24Z

Sinterable ceramic powders from laser-heated gases Haggerty, John S. Extremely high quality ceramic powders have been synthesized from SiH4, NH3 and CH4 reactant gasses that are heated by absorbing energy emitted from a CO2 laser. Resulting Si, Si3N4 and SiC powders have been characterized in terms of parameters which are important for densification processes. The powders are virtually ideal. The fully dispersible powders have mean diameters ranging from 0.1-0.3 pm with a standard deviation that is typically 25-45%. As-synthesized powders are extremely high purity because the synthesis equipment is hermetic and cold-walled. The synthesis process has been modeled on a macro scale with respect to heat- transfer, fluid-flow and stability criteria. These results have permitted the process to be scaled safely to production rates up to 8-40 tons/year/nozzle. The particle formation and growth processes have also been analyzed experimentally and analytically in terms of a collision-coalescence model. Application of these models permitted particle sizes to be increased to useful dimensions while retaining complete dispersibility. Compound particles form by a 2-step reaction sequence between molten silicon particles and a reactive atmosphere only after the Si particles have grown to desired dimensions. The process is extremely efficient; >95% of the SiH 4 is reacted in a single pass through the laser beam and approximately 2 kwhr of energy are required per kilo of powder. Manufacturing costs are projected to be $1.50-5.00/kg plus the cost of the reactants. Resulting powders have been dispersed and shaped into flaw-free, maximum density green parts; colloidal pressing and centrifugal sedimentation techniques have been used successfully. Reaction bonded silicon nitride (RBSN) forms from the Si powders in unusually rapid, low temperature (e.g. 1150C, 1 hr and 1250°C, 10 min) exposures. The SiC powders sinter to virtually full density in 1 hr at 2050 0C. The properties of both RBSN and sintered SiC (SSC) parts made from the lasersynthesized powders are excellent. RBSN strengths (up to 690 MPa) are 3-5 times values normally observed at the same densities and are in the range normally associated with fully dense alpha-Si3N4. The strengths of the SSC parts are also much higher than are normally observed (up to 714 MPa). The oxidation resistance of the RBSN is approximately 10 times better than conventional RBSN and 5-10 times better than commercial hot pressed Si3N4 (HPSN) for 1000 and 14000C air exposures. The superior properties and consolidation kinetics result directly from the high quality of the green parts and the purity levels maintained in the powders through the firing stage, As a separate topic, the surface tensions and densities of A1203 melts with MgO, TiO2 and ZrO2 additions were measured in air, He and He-H2 atmospheres using the pendant-drop technique. Melts on the bottom ends of sintered rods were formed by CO2 laser heating. A curve fitting technique was developed that improved the experimental accuracy of analyzing the short pendant drops that are characteristic of these materials.

Government intervention in production and incentives theory : a review of recent contributions

2019-04-12T08:38:41Z

Government intervention in production and incentives theory : a review of recent contributions Caillaud, Bernard This paper reviews the recent literature on regulation under asymmetric information. If first develops the conceptual framework and offers a reminder of the techniques used in the field. It then applies the framework and techniques to a variety of situations, with or without the use of accounting data. Next, the analysis is extended to dynamics with or without commitment. The paper concludes with desirable directions for research.

Managerial switching and myopia

2019-04-09T16:53:35Z

Managerial switching and myopia Laffont, Jean-Jacques; Tirole, Jean

Repeated auctions of incentive contracts, investment and bidding parity : with an application to takeovers

2019-04-12T08:38:41Z

Repeated auctions of incentive contracts, investment and bidding parity : with an application to takeovers Laffont, Jean-Jacques; Tirole, Jean This paper considers a two-period model of repeated franchise bidding or second sourcing. A regulator contracts with a single firm in each period, presumably because of increasing returns to scale. The incumbent firm invests in the first period. The investment may be transferable to a second source or not; and may be monetary or in human capital. Each firm has private information about its intrinsic efficiency, and, if it is selected to produce. about the cost-reducing effort it exerts and the investment it makes. The regulator, however, observes the firm's realized cost at the end of the period (the cost includes monetary investments and may be random). In the second period the incumbent firm can be replaced by an entrant. The regulator commits to an optimal breakout rule. The paper generalizes an earlier result that the optimal policy is to regulate through contracts linear in cost overruns. It also derives conclusions concerning the intertemporal evolution of incentive schemes. Mainly, it puts emphasis on the issue of bidding parity. It shows that three basic effects guide the optimal bias in the second-period auctioning process and determines whether the incumbent should be favored depending on the nature of investments. The outcome of the analysis is a relatively pessimistic assessment of the desirability of second sourcing when sizeable investments are at stake. Last we reinterpret the second source as a raider, and the breakout as a takeover. We discuss the desirability of defensive tactics, and obtain some relationships between the size of managerial stock options, the amount of defensive tactics, the firm's performance and the probability of a takeover.

The excess co-movement of commodity prices

2019-04-12T08:38:40Z

The excess co-movement of commodity prices Pindyck, Robert S.; Rotemberg, Julio

Price control in long term contracts : the case of coal

2019-04-12T08:38:42Z

Price control in long term contracts : the case of coal Joskow, Paul L. A sample of coal contracts between electric utilities and coal suppliers is used to analyze mechanisms for determining prices in long term coal contracts. Alternative methods for determining prices in long term contracts are discussed and the actual adjustment mechanisms specified in a set of actual coal contracts presented. The vast majority of long term coal contracts use a base price plus escalation or cost-plus adjustment formula. Base price equations and subsequent transactions price equations are estimated. The analysis shows that on average long term contracts are flexible in the sense that prices adjust to major changes in the costs of supplying coal. However, some pricing rigidities are found which appear to reflect the economic conditions prevailing at the time the contracts were executed. Furthermore, some contracts track changes in market values very poorly.

The economic organization of nuclear plant projects : some cross-national comparisons

2019-04-12T23:37:55Z

The economic organization of nuclear plant projects : some cross-national comparisons Lester, Richard K. (Richard Keith), 1954-; Crocker, Margarita B. This paper examines the relationship between the economic organization of the nuclear power industry and its perfornmance in designing and building nuclear power plants. The institutional relationships that link French, West German and Japanese utilities with their nuclear plant suppliers are described and compared. The focus is on three interrelated aspects of these relationships: (1) the extent of utility involvement in the supply process; (2) the extent to which the various supply functions are "horizontally" integrated; and (3) the nature of the contracts linking the utilities and their suppliers. The transaction cost approach provides the framework for the analysis. The central idea underlying this approach is that important efficiency consequences flow from decisions concerning whether to organize transactions contractually between firms or administratively within them, and that for any given transaction an optimal governance structure exists which depends in a predictable way on certain attributes of the transaction. There are substantial differences in nuclear power plant project organization among the three countries. The transaction cost approach cannot explain why these differences have arisen, since they are much less the outcome of the formal economic optimization process assumed in the theory than of state-specific factors, including industrial traditions, legal restrictions, political initiatives and administrative planning. Nevertheless, the approach provides qualitative insights into the economic implications of these differences. It also provides insights into why an organizational approach that is effective in one structural and/or national cultural context may be more or less effective in another.

Economics of seasonal gas substitution in coal- and oil-fired power plants

2019-04-11T09:10:27Z

Economics of seasonal gas substitution in coal- and oil-fired power plants Fay, James A.; Golomb, Dan S.

Field analysis of groundwater for volatile organic contaminants using on-column aqueous injection capillary gas chromatography

2019-04-11T09:10:27Z

Field analysis of groundwater for volatile organic contaminants using on-column aqueous injection capillary gas chromatography MacFarlane, John K.; Gschwend, Philip M.

Use of source apportionment model for designing acid deposition mitigating strategies in Massachusetts

2019-04-09T17:28:11Z

Use of source apportionment model for designing acid deposition mitigating strategies in Massachusetts Fay, James A.; Golomb, D.; Zemba, Stephen G. The Commonwealth of Massachusetts promulgated an Act limiting S2 emissions from large sources that burn fuel at a rate greater than or equal to 100 million Btu (MBtu) of fuel input per hour. The Act requires that by 1995 the average emission rate at such facilities be less than or equal to 1.2 lb SO2 per MBtu fuel input. Because of their size, almost all power plants in Massachusetts could be subject to emission reductions. Since the average 1980-1982 annual emission rate of Massachusetts power plants was 1.84 lb S02/MBtu ("base case"), the Act requires the annual average emission rate of power plants to diminish by 35%. We use a source apportionment model to estimate the wet sulfate deposition to typical sensitive Massachusetts receptors from Massachusetts power plants, separately for the summer (April-September) and winter (October-March) half-years. We find that the summer wet deposition is about twice the winter deposition, although summer and winter SO2 emissions are approximately equal. Therefore, to reduce sulfate deposition, t is more effective to reduce emissions in the summer months rather than in winter. Using the seasonal source apportionment model we find that an annual wet deposition reduction equal to that resulting from the Act could be accomplished if only summer emission rates were reduced to 0.86 lb SO /MBtu, with winter emission rates remaining at 1.84 lb S02/MBtu. The resulging annual average emission rate is 1.35 lb SO /MBtu, 27% less than the base value. As 1980-1982 average annual emissions rom power plants amounted to 270,000 tons of SO annually, a summer emission control program would save about 21,000 tons of S emission reduction without sacrificing wet deposition protection. Te summer emission reduction could be acomplished by substituting lower sulfur content fuels, including natural gas, for higher sulfur content fuels.

Discounting rules for risky assets

2019-04-11T09:10:23Z

Discounting rules for risky assets Myers, Stewart C.; Ruback, Richard S. This paper develops a rule for calculating a discount rate to value risky projects. The rule assumes that the asset risk can be measured by a single index (e.g., beta), but makes no other assumptions about specific form of the asset pricing model. The rule works for all equilibrium theories of debt and taxes. The rule works because it treats all projects as combinations of two assets: Treasury bills and the market portfolio. We know how to value each of these assets under any theory of debt and taxes and under any assumption about the slope and intercept of the market line for equity securities. Given the corporate tax rate, the interest rate on Treasury bills, and the expected rate of return on the market, we can calculate the cost of capital for a feasible financing strategy. The firm finances the project with equity and debt in the proportions beta and (1- beta). Value increasing projects could be completely financed using this strategy. The weighted average cost of financing this project provides a discount rate that values the project correctly.