https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/88516 2026-04-03T17:47:47Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100541 The Impact of Climate Policy on Carbon Capture and Storage Deployment in China Zhang, Xiaohan; Qi, Tianyu; Zhang, Xiliang Carbon capture and storage (CCS) from coal combustion is widely viewed as an important approach for China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emission mitigation, but the pace of its development is still fairly slow. In addition to the technological and economic uncertainties of CCS, lack of strong policy incentive is another main reason for the wide gap between early expectations and the actual progress towards its demonstration and commercialization. China’s mitigation scenario and targets are crucial to long-term development of CCS. In this research, impacts of CCS on energy and CO2 emissions are evaluated under two mitigation scenarios reflecting different policy effort levels for China using the China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM). Results indicate that with CCS applications in the power sector China can achieve an added emissions reduction of 0.3 to 0.6 Gigatons CO2 (GtCO2) in 2050 at the same level of carbon taxes respectively in the two mitigation scenarios. Under the more ambitious mitigation scenario, approximately 56% of China’s fossil fuel fired power plants will have CCS installed, and CO2 emission amounting to 1.4 GtCO2 will be captured in 2050. A carbon price not lower than $35/tCO2 appears to be necessary for the large-scale application of CCS in the power sector, indicating the vital role of policy in the deployment of CCS in China’s power sector. 2015-12-28T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/99379 Capturing Natural Resource Dynamics in Top-Down Energy‑Economic Equilibrium Models Zhang, Da; Karplus, V.; Rausch, S. Top-down energy-economic modeling approaches often use deliberately simple techniques to represent heterogeneous resource inputs to production. We show that for some policies, such as feed-in tariffs (FIT) for renewable electricity, detailed representation of renewable resource grades is required to describe the technology more precisely and identify cost-effective policy designs. We extend a hybrid approach for modeling heterogeneity in the quality of natural resource inputs required for renewable energy production in a stylized computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. Importantly, this approach resolves nearflat or near-vertical sections of the resource supply curve that translate into key features of the marginal cost of wind resource supply, allowing for more realistic policy simulation. In a second step, we represent the shape of a resource supply curve based on more detailed data. We show that for the case of onshore wind development in China, a differentiated FIT design that can only be modeled with the hybrid approach requires less than half of the subsidy budget needed for a uniform FIT design and proves to be more cost-effective. 2015-10-20T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/98268 Natural Gas Pricing Reform in China: Getting Closer to a Market System? Paltsev, S.; Zhang, D. Recent policy in China targets an increase in the contribution of natural gas to the nation’s energy supply. Historically, China’s natural gas prices have been highly regulated with a goal to protect consumers. The old pricing regime failed to provide enough incentives for natural gas suppliers, which often resulted in natural gas shortages. A new gas pricing reform was tested in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces in 2011 and was introduced nationwide in 2013. The reform is aimed at creating a more market based pricing mechanism. We show that substantial progress toward better predictability and transparency of prices has been made. China’s prices are now more connected with international fuel oil and liquid petroleum gas prices. The government’s approach for temporary two tier pricing when some volumes are still traded at old prices reduced potential opposition during the new regime implementation. Some limitations created by the natural gas pricing remain: it created biased incentives for producers and favors large natural gas suppliers. The pricing reform at its current stage falls short of establishing a complete market mechanism driven by an interaction of supply and demand of natural gas in China. 2015-08-31T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/93252 Modeling regional transportation demand in China and the impacts of a national carbon constraint Kishimoto, Paul Climate and energy policy in China will have important and uneven impacts on the country’s regionally heterogeneous transport system. In order to simulate these impacts, transport sector detail is added to a multi-sector, static, global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which resolves China’s provinces as distinct regions. This framework is used to perform an analysis of national-level greenhouse gas (GHG) policies. Freight, commercial passenger and household (private vehicle) transport are separately represented, with the former two categories further disaggregated into road and non-road modes. The preparation of model inputs is described, including assembly of a provincial transport data set from publicly-available statistics. Two policies are analyzed: the first represents China’s target of a 17% reduction in GHG emissions intensity of GDP during the Twelfth Five Year Plan (12FYP), and the second China’s Copenhagen target of a 40–45% reduction in the same metric during the period 2005–2020. We find significant heterogeneity in regional transport impacts. We find that both freight and passenger transportation in some of the poorest provinces are most adversely affected, as their energy-intensive resource and industrial sectors offer many of the least-cost abatement opportunities, and the transformation of their energy systems strongly affects transport demand. At the national level, we find that road freight is the transport sector affected most by policy, likely due to its high energy intensity and limited low-cost opportunities for improving efficiency. The type and degree of regional disparity in impacts is relevant to central and provincial government decisions which set and allocate climate, energy and transport policy targets. We describe how this research establishes a basis for regional CGE analysis of the economic, energy and environmental impacts of transport-focused policies including vehicle ownership restrictions, taxation of driving activity or fuels, and the supply of public transit. 2015-01-30T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/91996 Interprovincial Migration and the Stringency of Energy Policy in China Luo, Xiaohu; Zhang, Da; Caron, Justin; Zhang, Xiliang; Karplus, Valerie Interprovincial migration flows involve substantial relocation of people and productive activity, with implications for regional energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. In China, these flows are not explicitly considered when setting energy and environmental targets for provinces, and their potential impact on the effectiveness of policy alternatives is ignored. We analyze how migration affects outcomes under energy intensity targets and energy caps. While both policies are part of the nation’s Twelfth Five Year Plan (2011–2015) and imposed at the provincial level, only the intensity targets are binding at present. We estimate a migration model, integrate it into a general equilibrium model that resolves each province in China, and simulate the effect of migration on energy use and economic activity. We find that although both types of policies are affected by uncertain migration flows, energy intensity targets (energy use indexed to economic output) are more robust than absolute caps. They are also more cost-effective, placing less burden on the relatively clean in-migration provinces. Our findings also underscore the value of moving from provincial targets to an integrated national emissions trading system, given that the choice of abatement strategies will adjust endogenously to labor relocation. 2014-12-02T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/90912 Carbon emissions in China: How far can new efforts bend the curve? Zhang, Xiliang; Karplus, Valerie J.; Qi, Tianyu; Zhang, Da; He, Jiankun While China is on track to meet its global climate commitments through 2020, China’s post-2020 CO2 emissions trajectory is highly uncertain, with projections varying widely across studies. Over the past year, the Chinese government has announced new policy directives to deepen economic reform, protect the environment, and limit fossil energy use in China. To evaluate how new policy directives could affect energy and climate change outcomes, we simulate two levels of policy effort—a Continued Effort scenario that extends current policies beyond 2020 and an Accelerated Effort scenario that reflects newly announced policies—on the evolution of China’s energy and economic system over the next several decades. Importantly, we find that both levels of policy effort would bend down the CO2 emissions trajectory before 2050 without undermining economic development, although coal use and CO2 emissions peak about 10 years earlier in the Accelerated Effort scenario. 2014-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/88606 The China-in-Global Energy Model Qi, T.; Winchester, N.; Zhang, D.; Zhang, X.; Karplus, V.J. The China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM) is a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model that captures the interaction of production, consumption and trade among multiple global regions and sectors – including five energy-intensive sectors – to analyze global energy demand, CO2 emissions, and economic activity. The C-GEM model supplies a research platform to analyze China’s climate policy and its global implications, and is one of the major output and analysis tools developed by the China Energy and Climate Project (CECP) – a cooperative project between the Tsinghua University Institute of Energy, Environment, and Economy and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. This report serves as technical documentation to describe the C-GEM model. We provide detailed information on the model structure, underlying database, key parameters and its calibration, and important assumptions about the model. We also provide model results for the reference scenario and a sensitivity analysis for two key parameters: autonomous energy efficiency improvements (AEEI) and the elasticity of substitution between energy and value added. 2014-05-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/88605 An Integrated Assessment of China’s Wind Energy Potential Zhang, D.; Davidson, M.; Gunturu, B.; Zhang, X.; Karplus, V.J. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models seeking to evaluate the impacts of electricity policy face difficulties incorporating detail on the variable nature of renewable energy resources. To improve the accuracy of modeling renewable energy and climate policies, detailed scientific and engineering data are used to inform the parameterization of wind electricity in a new regional CGE model of China. Wind power density (WPD) in China is constructed using boundary layer flux data from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset with a 0.5° latitude by 0.67° longitude spatial resolution. Wind resource data are used to generate production cost functions for wind at the provincial level for both onshore and offshore, incorporating technological parameters and geographical constraints. By using these updated wind production cost data to parameterize the wind electricity option in a CGE model, an illustrative policy analysis of the current feed-in tariff (FIT) for onshore wind electricity is performed. Assuming a generous penetration rate, no grid integration cost and no interprovincial interconnection, we find that the economic potential of wind exceeds China’s 2020 wind target by a large margin. Our analysis shows how wind electricity resource can be differentiated based on location and quality in a CGE model and then applied to analyze climate and energy policies. 2014-04-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/88604 Equity and Emissions Trading in China Zhang, D.; Springmann, M.; Karplus, V.J. China has embarked on an ambitious pathway for establishing a national carbon market in the next five to ten years. In this study, we analyze the distributional aspects of a Chinese emissions-trading scheme from ethical, economic, and stated-preference perspectives. We focus on the role of emissions permit allocation and first show how specific equity principles can be incorporated into the design of potential allocation schemes. We then assess the economic and distributional impacts of those allocation schemes using a computable general equilibrium model with regional detail for the Chinese economy. Finally, we conduct a survey among Chinese climate-policy experts on the basis of the simulated model impacts. The survey participants indicate a relative preference for allocation schemes that put less emissions-reduction burden on the western provinces, a medium burden on the central provinces, and a high burden on the eastern provinces. Most participants show strong support for allocating emissions permits based on consumption-based emissions responsibilities. 2014-02-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/81991 Synergy between Pollution and Carbon Emissions Control: Comparing China and the U.S. Nam, Kyung-Min; Waugh, Caleb J.; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John M.; Karplus, V.J. We estimate the potential synergy between pollution and climate control in the U.S. and China, summarizing the results as emissions cross-elasticities of control. We set a range of NOx and SO2 targets, and record the ancillary reduction in CO2 to calculate the percentage change in CO2 divided by the percentage change in NOx (SO2) denoted as ECO2,NOx (ECO2,SO2). Then we conduct the opposite experiment, setting targets for CO2 and recording the ancillary reduction in NOx and SO2 to compute ENOx,CO2 and ESO2,CO2. For ECO2,NOx and ECO2,SO2 we find low values (0.06‒0.23) in both countries with small (10%) reduction targets that rise to 0.40‒0.67 in the U.S. and 0.83‒1.03 in China when targets are more stringent (75% reduction). This pattern reflects the availability of pollution control to target individual pollutants for smaller reductions but the need for wholesale change toward non-fossil technologies when large reductions are required. We trace the especially high cross elasticities in China to its higher dependence on coal. These results are promising in that China may have more incentive to greatly reduce SO2 and NOx with readily apparent pollution benefits in China, that at the same time would significantly reduce CO2 emissions. The majority of existing studies have focused on the effect of CO2 abatement on other pollutants, typically finding strong cross effects. We find similar strong effects but with less dependence on the stringency of control, and stronger effects in the U.S. than in China. 2013-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79920 The Energy and Economic Impacts of Expanding International Emissions Trading Qi, Tianyu; Winchester, Niven; Karplus, Valerie; Zhang, Xiliang Emissions trading systems are recognized as a cost-effective way to facilitate emissions abatement and are expected to play an important role in international cooperation for global climate mitigation. Starting from the planned linkage of the European Union’s Emissions Trading System with a new system in Australia in 2015, this paper simulates the impacts of expanding this international emissions market to include China and the US, which are respectively the largest and second largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters in the world. We find that including China and the US significantly impacts the price and the quantity of permits traded internationally. China exports emissions rights while other regions import permits. When China joins the EU-Australia/New Zealand (EU-ANZ) linked market, we find that the prevailing global carbon market price falls significantly, from $33 per ton of carbon dioxide (tCO2) to $11.2/tCO2. By contrast, adding the US to the EU-ANZ market increases the price to $46.1/tCO2. If both China and the US join the linked market, the market price of an emissions permit is $17.5/tCO2 and 608 million metric tons (mmt) are traded, compared to 93 mmt in the EU-ANZ scenario. The US and Australia would transfer, respectively, 55% and 78% of their domestic reduction burden to China (and a small amount to the EU) in return for a total transfer payment of $10.6 billion. International trading of emissions permits also leads to a redistribution of renewable energy production. When permit trading between all regions is considered, relative to when all carbon markets operate in isolation, renewable energy in China expands by more than 20% and shrinks by 48% and 90% in, respectively, the US and Australia-New Zealand. In all scenarios, global emissions are reduced by around 5% relative to a case without climate policies. 2013-08-21T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/79919 Limited Sectoral Trading between the EU ETS and China Gavard, Claire; Winchester, Niven; Paltsev, Sergey In the negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), new market mechanisms are proposed to involve Non-Annex I countries in the carbon markets developed by Annex I countries, beyond their current involvement through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Sectoral trading is one such mechanism. It would consist of coupling one economic sector of a Non-Annex I country, e.g., the Chinese electricity sector, with the carbon market of some Annex I countries, e.g., the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Previous research analyzed the potential impacts of such a mechanism and concluded that a limit would likely be set on the amount of carbon permits that could be imported from the non-Annex I country to the Annex I carbon market, should such a mechanism come into effect. This paper analyzes the impact of limited trading in carbon permits between the EU ETS and Chinese electricity sector when the latter is constrained by a 10% emissions reduction target below business as usual by 2030. The limit on the amount of Chinese carbon permits that could be sold into the European carbon market is modeled through the introduction of a trade certificate system. The analysis employs the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model and takes into account the banking–borrowing of allowances and the inclusion of aviation emissions in the EU ETS. We find that if the amount of permits that can be imported from China to Europe is 10% of the total amount of European allowances, the European carbon price decreases by 34%, while it decreases by 74 % when sectoral trading is not limited. As a consequence, limited sectoral trading does not reverse the changes initiated in the European electricity sector as much as unlimited sectoral trading would. We also observe that international leakage and leakage to non-electricity sectors in China are lower under limited sectoral trading, thus achieving more emissions reductions at the aggregate level. Finally, we find that, if China can capture the rents due to the limit on sectoral trading, it is possible to find a limit that makes both regions better off relative to when there is no international trade in carbon permits. 2013-08-21T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/78302 The Energy and CO2 Emissions Impact of Renewable Energy Development in China Zhang, X.; Qi, T.; Karplus, V.J. China’s recently-adopted targets for developing renewable electricity—wind, solar, and biomass—would require expansion on an unprecedented scale in China and relative to existing global installations. An important question is how far this deployment will go toward achieving China’s low carbon development goals, which include a carbon intensity reduction target of 40–45% relative to 2005 and a non-fossil primary energy target of 15% by 2020. During the period from 2010 to 2020, we find that current renewable electricity targets result in significant additional renewable energy installation and a reduction in cumulative CO2 emissions of 1.2% relative to a no policy baseline. After 2020, the role of renewables is sensitive to both economic growth and technology cost assumptions. Importantly, we find that CO2 emissions reductions due to increased renewables are offset in each year by emissions increases in non-covered sectors through 2050. By increasing reliance on renewable energy sources in the electricity sector, fossil fuel demand in the power sector falls, resulting in lower fossil fuel prices, which in turn leads to greater demand for these fuels in unconstrained sectors. We consider sensitivity to renewable electricity cost after 2020 and find that if cost falls due to policy or other reasons, renewable electricity share increases and results in slightly higher economic growth through 2050. However, regardless of the cost assumption, projected CO2 emissions reductions are very modest under a policy that only targets the supply side in the electricity sector. A policy approach that covers all sectors and allows flexibility to reduce CO2 at lowest cost—such as an emissions trading system—will prevent this emissions leakage and ensure targeted reductions in CO2 emissions are achieved over the long term. 2013-04-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/78301 Consumption-Based Adjustment of China's Emissions-Intensity Targets: An Analysis of its Potential Economic Effects Springmann, M.; Zhang, D.; Karplus, V.J. China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) aims to achieve a national carbon intensity reduction of 17% through differentiated targets at the provincial level. Allocating the national target among China’s provinces is complicated by the fact that more than half of China’s national carbon emissions are embodied in interprovincial trade, with the relatively developed eastern provinces relying on the central and western provinces for energy-intensive imports. This study develops a consistent methodology to adjust regional emissions-intensity targets for trade-related emissions transfers and assesses its economic effects on China's provinces using a regional computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. This study finds that in 2007 China's eastern provinces outsource 14% of their territorial emissions to the central and western provinces. Adjusting the provincial targets for those emissions transfers increases the reduction burden for the eastern provinces by 60%, while alleviating the burden for the central and western provinces by 50% each. The CGE analysis indicates that this adjustment could double China's national welfare loss compared to the homogenous and politics-based distribution of reduction targets. A shared-responsibility approach that balances production-based and consumption-based emissions responsibilities is found to alleviate those unbalancing effects and lead to a more equal distribution of economic burden among China's provinces. 2013-03-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/75829 Analyzing the Regional Impact of a Fossil Energy Cap in China Zhang, D.; Karplus, V.; Rausch, S.; Zhang, X. Decoupling fossil energy demand from economic growth is crucial to China’s sustainable development. In addition to energy and carbon intensity targets enacted under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), a coal or fossil energy cap is under discussion as a way to constrain the absolute quantity of energy used. Importantly, implementation of such a cap may be compatible with existing policies and institutions. We evaluate the efficiency and distributional implications of alternative energy cap designs using a numerical general equilibrium model of China’s economy, built on the 2007 regional input-output tables for China and the Global Trade Analysis Project global data set. We find that a national cap on fossil energy implemented through a tax on final energy products and an energy saving allowance trading market is the most costeffective design, while a regional coal-only cap is the least cost-effective design. We further find that a regional coal cap results in large welfare losses in some provinces. Capping fossil energy use at the national level is found to be nearly as cost effective as a national CO2 emissions target that penalizes energy use based on carbon content. 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/74560 Climate Co-benefits of Tighter SO2 and NOx Regulations in China Nam, Kyung-Min; Waugh, Caleb J.; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John M.; Karplus, Valerie J. Air pollution has been recognized as a significant problem in China. In its Twelfth Five Year Plan (FYP), China proposes to reduce SO2 and NOx emissions significantly, and here we investigate the cost of achieving those reductions and the implications of doing so for CO2 emissions. We extend the analysis through 2050, and either hold emissions policy targets at the level specified in the Twelfth FYP, or continue to reduce them gradually. We apply a computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy that includes a representation of pollution abatement derived from detailed assessment of abatement technology and costs. We find that China’s SO2 and NOx emissions control targets would have substantial effects on CO2 emissions leading to emissions savings far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet its CO2 intensity targets. However, the cost of achieving and maintaining the pollution targets can be quite high given the growing economy. In fact, we find that the Twelfth FYP pollution targets can be met while still expanding the use of coal, but if they are, then there is a lock-in effect that makes it more costly to maintain or further reduce emissions. That is, if firms were to look ahead to tighter targets, they would make different technology choices in the near term, largely turning away from increased use of coal immediately. 2012-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/73903 Will Economic Restructuring in China Reduce Trade-Embodied CO2 Emissions? Qi, Tianyu; Winchester, Niven; Karplus, Valerie J.; Zhang, Xiliang We calculate CO2 emissions embodied in China’s net exports using a multi-regional input-output database. We find that the majority of China’s export-embodied CO2 is associated with production of machinery and equipment rather than energy-intensive products, such as steel and aluminum. In 2007, the largest net recipients of embodied CO2 emissions from China include the EU (360 million metric tons, mmt), the U.S. (337 mmt), and Japan (109 mmt). Overall, annual CO2 emissions embodied in China’s net exports totaled 1,177 mmt, equal to 22% of China’s total CO2 emissions. We also develop a global general equilibrium model with a detailed treatment of energy and CO2 emissions. We use the model to analyze the impact of a sectoral shift in the Chinese economy away from industry and towards services, both without and with a decrease in China’s trade surplus, and a tax on energy-intensive exports, which reflect policy objectives in China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015). We find that without a decrease in the trade surplus, both policies will have a limited impact on China’s net exports of embodied CO2 emissions. The policies have an even smaller effect on global emissions, as reduced production in China is partially offset by increased production elsewhere. 2012-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/73607 The Future Energy and GHG Emissions Impact of Alternative Personal Transportation Pathways in China Kishimoto, P.N.; Paltsev, S.; Karplus, V.J. A major uncertainty in future energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections for China is the evolution of demand for personal transportation modes. This paper explores the implications of divergent personal transportation scenarios, either favoring private vehicles, or emphasizing a sector including all purchased transport (including local public transit, rail and aviation) as substitute for vehicle travel. Motivated by a wide range of forecasts for transport indicators in the literature, we construct plausible scenarios with low-, medium- and high-transport demand growth, and implement them in a technology-rich model which represents opportunities for fuel economy improvement and switching to plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs). The analysis compares primary energy use and GHG emissions in China in the absence and presence of climate policies. We find that a policy that extends the current Chinese emissions-intensity goals through 2050 mostly affects other sectors with lower abatement costs, and so only lightly engages household transport, permitting nearly the same large increases in refined oil demand (by more than five times) and private vehicle stocks (to 430–500 million) as in the reference case. A stringent climate stabilization policy affects household transport, limiting vehicle ownership and petroleum demand, but drives up the share of household spending on transport, and carries high economy-wide costs. The large projected scale of vehicle fleets, refined oil use and transport purchases all suggest that the rate and type of travel demand growth deserves attention by policymakers, as China seeks to address its energy, environmental, and economic goals. 2012-10-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/73005 Quantifying Regional Economic Impacts of CO2 Intensity Targets in China Zhang, Da; Rausch, Sebastian; Karplus, Valerie; Zhang, Xiliang To address rising energy use and CO2 emissions, China’s leadership has enacted energy and CO2 intensity targets under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), which are defined at both the national and provincial levels. We develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with global coverage that disaggregates China’s 30 provinces and includes energy system detail, and apply it to assess the impact of provincial CO2 emissions intensity targets. We compare the impact of the provincial targets approach to a single national target for China that achieves the same reduction in CO2 emissions intensity at the national level. We find that at the national level, the national target results in 25% lower welfare loss relative to the provincial targets approach. Given that the regional distribution of impacts has been an important consideration in the target-setting process, we focus on the changes in provincial level CO2 emissions intensity, CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic welfare. We observe significant heterogeneity across provinces in terms of the energy system response as well as the magnitude and sometimes sign of welfare impacts. We further model the current policy of fixed end-use electricity prices in China and find that national welfare losses increase. Assumptions about capital mobility have a substantial impact on national welfare loss, while assumptions about natural gas resource potential does not have a large effect. 2012-09-01T00:00:00Z