Evaluating Accident Models Using Recent Aerospace Accidents, Part 1: Event-Based Models

Abstract

This report was inspired by a graduate reading group that was held at MIT during the fall semester, 2000. Each week, 20-25 graduate students and 3-4 faculty examined a different aerospace accident report (about evenly divided between aeronautics and astronautics). Our goal was to look at recent accidents (all but one of the accidents involved software) and determine how well traditional accident models fit these accidents in modern complex systems and whether there are common systemic factors that can be identified. The accident reports examined involved the Ariane 5; the Space Shuttle Challenger; the Mars Climate Orbiter; the Mars Polar Lander; the Titan IV/Milstar; an American Airlines B-757 near Cali, Colombia; A Lufthansa A320 at Warsaw; and a China Airlines A320 at Nagoya, Japan.