A comprehensive computer-aided planning approach for universal energy access : case study of Kilifi, Kenya

Abstract

In 2009, it was estimated that 1.4 billion people in the world lack access to electricity, and approximately 2.7 billion people rely on biomass as their primary cooking fuel. Access to reliable electricity and modem forms of energy for cooking can contribute to improvements in sectors beyond the energy industry such as health, education, commerce, and agriculture, and has been shown to correspond with poverty alleviation and economic growth. A successful strategy towards universal access requires a careful assessment of the diverse energy services needs from the perspective of the beneficiaries, the impact on their economic and social development, and the environmental consequences. This thesis proposes a comprehensive methodology for the assessment of the appropriate modes of electrification and heating and cooking for specific countries or regions. The software tools used for this analysis are incorporated in the proposed technology toolkit consisting of: the Reference Electrification Model (REM)-used to determine the appropriate modes of electrification (grid extension, micro or isolated systems) given the current base scenario; the Reference Cooking Model (RCM)-used to determine technology choices for the provision of modem heat for cooking; and the MASTER4all Model-used to evaluate the future macro level impact of different energy access strategies in a specific region or a country as a whole, taking into account various business scenarios and regulatory policies. While the analytical strategy presented here is intended to be generalizable for other regions, it is based on a case study of Kilifi County in Kenya. The larger goal of this project, through the case study approach, is to provide a proof of concept for the decision support tools being developed that could be used in energy access expansion planning.