Dynamics of the illicit drug market in Italy

Abstract

Alongside street crime, a high prevalence of illicit drug consumption in the population represents a great source of funding for organized crime, and this is especially true in Italy, where the main criminal organizations control almost all the imports of cocaine and heroin: as a consequence, it is of the utmost importance that the policymakers take decisive and effective actions against the prevalence of illicit drugs in the country. However, the fact that the data about the prevalence of consumption is self-reported by substance users might represent an obstacle to an objective planning and evaluation of repressive policies: it is well documented how the reporting rate is lower than the actual prevalence in the population. This research attempt to address this issue by modeling a structure of the Italian market for the two main heavy drugs in the country (cocaine and heroin), using the tools provided by System Dynamics, specifically to analyze the effects of the introduction of the law n.49/2006. The results presented by the model - and consistent with the real data - show that the actual prevalence in the population is increasingly different from the reported one following the implementation of the law. This result implies the necessity for policy makers to adopt more accurate tools for the evaluation of past and proposed policies, in order to be able to estimate the dynamics involved in the complex and little known market of illicit substances.