Optimal reservoir operation using stochastic model predictive control

Abstract

Dynamical systems are subjected to various random external forcings that complicate theie control. In order to achieve optimal performance, these systems need to continually adapt to external disturbances in real time. This capability is provided by feedback based control strategies that derive an optimal control from the current state of the system. Model Predictive Control(MPC) is one such feedback-based technique. This thesis explores the application of a stochastic version of MPC to a reservoir system. The reservoir system is designed to maximize the revenue generated from the hydroelectricity while simultaneously obeying several exogenous constraints. An ensemble based version of the stochastic MPC technique is studied and applied to the reservoir to determine the optimal water release strategies. Further analysis is performed to understand the sensitivity of different parameters in the MPC technique.