Think global, act local when estimating a sparse precision matrix

Abstract

Substantial progress has been made in the estimation of sparse high dimensional precision matrices from scant datasets. This is important because precision matrices underpin common tasks such as regression, discriminant analysis, and portfolio optimization. However, few good algorithms for this task exist outside the space of L1 penalized optimization approaches like GLASSO. This thesis introduces LGM, a new algorithm for the estimation of sparse high dimensional precision matrices. Using the framework of probabilistic graphical models, the algorithm performs robust covariance estimation to generate potentials for small cliques and fuses the local structures to form a sparse yet globally robust model of the entire distribution. Identification of appropriate local structures is done through stochastic discrete optimization. The algorithm is implemented in Matlab and benchmarked against competitor algorithms for an array of synthetic datasets. Simulation results suggest that LGM may outperform GLASSO when model sparsity is especially important and when variables in the dataset belong to a number of closely related (if unknown) groups.