A systems perspective on the future of the automotive industry

Abstract

This thesis provides a systems perspective on the trends anticipated in the global automotive industry and their impact on the industry value chain. The global trends which are the emergent properties of the automotive industry, their effects, and the corresponding challenges that they bring to the automotive companies are analyzed in the thesis. These changes have also been used as a base to identify the constraints and the opportunities that are foreseen ahead for the automotive companies. The 3 global trends that have been analyzed in detail are - technology advancement which is leading to disruptive innovation, changing consumer behavior from 'owning to sharing cars' which is leading to business disruptions, and finally the emergence of the East which marks the entry of Chinese companies as global car makers. The analysis of each global trend has been supplemented with a case study to better understand their effects. For analyzing technology disruptions, autonomous vehicle technology has been studied. From improving traffic safety and increasing driving speed, to reducing travel times, traffic congestion, energy consumption- self-driving cars can be beneficial in many ways. However, the operating environment for autonomous vehicles is a large complex sociotechnical system that must integrate existing legacy and future transportation systems. Successful implementation will need to consider social aspects- both from an individual's personal preferences, and also from the perspective of various global laws and regulations. To better understand this part, a systems analysis on implementing autonomous vehicles is presented in case study 1. The business disruptions in the industry have been studied through the lens of Uber's business development and strategy which is highlighted in case study 2. To study the emergence of Chinese car makers in the global automotive market, Qoros Automotive Co. Ltd is analyzed through case study 3.This case describes the significant role of the East in the future. These mega trends present the big auto companies with constraints and opportunities in terms of redeveloping competencies, innovating, and redeveloping internal capabilities. Strategic analysis as to how the big auto OEMs will need to design their value chain in the future is supplemented at the end of the thesis.