Data processing and inference methods for zero knowledge nuclear disarmament

Abstract

It is hoped that future nuclear arms control treaties will call for the dismantlement of stored nuclear warheads. To make the authenticated decommissioning of nuclear weapons agreeable, methods must be developed to validate the structure and composition of nuclear warheads without it being possible to gain knowledge about these attributes. Nuclear resonance fluorescence (NRF) imaging potentially enables the physically-encrypted verification of nuclear weapons in a manner that would meet treaty requirements. This thesis examines the physics behind NRF, develops tools for processing resonance data, establishes methodologies for simulating information gain during warhead verification, and tests potential inference processes. The influence of several inference parameters are characterized, and success is shown in predicting the properties of an encrypting foil and the thickness of a warhead in a one-dimensional verification scenario.