Assessing the Impact of Typhoons on Rice Production in the Philippines

Abstract

This study quantifies the impact of typhoons on rice production in the Philippines. To this end, satellite-derived reflectance data are used to detect the location of rice fields at 500-m resolution. Utilizing typhoon-track data within a wind field model and satellite-derived precipitation measures, fragility curves are then employed to proxy the damage of storms on rice production within each rice field. The results from a panel spatial regression model show that typhoons substantially reduced local provincial production in the quarter of the strike, having caused losses of up to 12.5 million tons since 2001. Using extreme value theory to predict future losses, the results suggest that a typhoon like the recent Haiyan, which is estimated to have caused losses of around 260 000 tons, has a return period of 13 years. This methodology can provide a relatively timely tool for rice damage assessments after tropical cyclones in the region.