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Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?

Author(s)
Emanuel, Kerry Andrew
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.

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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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Abstract
Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.
Date issued
2017-03
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/112097
Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Journal
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Emanuel, Kerry. “Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98, 3 (March 2017): 495–501 © 2017 American Meteorological Society
Version: Final published version
ISSN
0003-0007
1520-0477

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