Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?
Author(s)Emanuel, Kerry Andrew
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Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.
DepartmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
American Meteorological Society
Emanuel, Kerry. “Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98, 3 (March 2017): 495–501 © 2017 American Meteorological Society
Final published version