Cyber warfare conflict analysis and case studies

Abstract

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." - Sun Tsu from "The Art of War" Believed to have lived between 770 and 476 B.C In the age of code wars, have our lives changed for the better? Are we any safer than the bloody wars or the cold wars from the past? Is there any more guarantee now in a cyber age than in a kinetic age involving human forces? These are the types of questions that have little answers due to the secret nature of the operation. State-sponsored activities are commonplace. Whenever there is involvement by a state, the stakes are higher, and loss of life can never be ruled out. The objective of this thesis was to research historical cyber-warfare incidents from the past to current and map the relevant cyber-warfare data in a well-known framework called CASCON, which is a history-based conflict analysis and decision-support system. The CASCON-based analysis for cyber incidents revealed a larger picture of the world we live in and how easily that world could change. The information contained in this thesis is not meant to be conclusive, but a study of state-sponsored cyber cases using MIT's CASCON to map and categorize information for future learning about conflicts involving states. It is the purpose of this thesis to (a) research historical cyber-warfare incidents and (b) map cyber-warfare incidents into a framework.