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A Methodology for Robust Comparative Life Cycle Assessments Incorporating Uncertainty

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Show simple item record Gregory, Jeremy Noshadravan, Arash Olivetti, Elsa A. Kirchain Jr, Randolph E 2017-12-07T20:08:36Z 2017-12-07T20:08:36Z 2016-05 2015-10
dc.identifier.issn 0013-936X
dc.identifier.issn 1520-5851
dc.description.abstract We propose a methodology for conducting robust comparative life cycle assessments (LCA) by leveraging uncertainty. The method evaluates a broad range of the possible scenario space in a probabilistic fashion while simultaneously considering uncertainty in input data. The method is intended to ascertain which scenarios have a definitive environmentally preferable choice among the alternatives being compared and the significance of the differences given uncertainty in the parameters, which parameters have the most influence on this difference, and how we can identify the resolvable scenarios (where one alternative in the comparison has a clearly lower environmental impact). This is accomplished via an aggregated probabilistic scenario-aware analysis, followed by an assessment of which scenarios have resolvable alternatives. Decision-tree partitioning algorithms are used to isolate meaningful scenario groups. In instances where the alternatives cannot be resolved for scenarios of interest, influential parameters are identified using sensitivity analysis. If those parameters can be refined, the process can be iterated using the refined parameters. We also present definitions of uncertainty quantities that have not been applied in the field of LCA and approaches for characterizing uncertainty in those quantities. We then demonstrate the methodology through a case study of pavements. en_US
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher American Chemical Society (ACS) en_US
dc.relation.isversionof en_US
dc.rights Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. en_US
dc.source Prof. Olivetti via Erja Kajosalo en_US
dc.title A Methodology for Robust Comparative Life Cycle Assessments Incorporating Uncertainty en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.identifier.citation Gregory, Jeremy R. et al. “A Methodology for Robust Comparative Life Cycle Assessments Incorporating Uncertainty.” Environmental Science & Technology 50, 12 (June 2016): 6397–6405 © 2016 American Chemical Society en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and Engineering en_US
dc.contributor.department Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society en_US
dc.contributor.approver Kirchain, Randolf E. en_US
dc.contributor.mitauthor Gregory, Jeremy
dc.contributor.mitauthor Noshadravan, Arash
dc.contributor.mitauthor Olivetti, Elsa A.
dc.contributor.mitauthor Kirchain Jr, Randolph E
dc.relation.journal Environmental Science & Technology en_US
dc.identifier.mitlicense PUBLISHER_POLICY en_US
dc.eprint.version Author's final manuscript en_US
dc.type.uri en_US
eprint.status en_US
dspace.orderedauthors Gregory, Jeremy R.; Noshadravan, Arash; Olivetti, Elsa A.; Kirchain, Randolph E. en_US
dspace.embargo.terms N en_US

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