Evidence of absence : the progressives and strategic non-voting in the house, 1907-1925

Abstract

The Progressive movement presents a puzzle for analysts of Congress: a deeply divided Republican party that appears in roll calls as extremely unified and homogenous. Historical records and theories of Congress suggest that part of the answer lies in missing votes - legislators abstaining in order to reduce cross-pressure between their party and constituents, and the Speaker using quorum calls to exclude disloyal Republicans. Using imputation to "fill in" the missing vote data from the 60th House reveals that missing votes had the effect of concealing Republican heterogeneity. This preceded the revolt against Cannon in the 61st House, and was more common for the non-Insurgents who faced the strongest cross-pressure. This pattern continued under Democratic rule in the 62nd House, fading out after the GOP revolt in the Speakership elections of the 68th. This evidence of non-random missingness can help resolve the puzzle of the Progressives, and inform historical study of Congress.