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dc.contributor.advisorJacob Cohen and Kamal Youcef-Toumi.en_US
dc.contributor.authorQi, Ling, S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technologyen_US
dc.contributor.otherLeaders for Global Operations Program.en_US
dc.coverage.spatialn-us---en_US
dc.date.accessioned2018-09-17T15:51:43Z
dc.date.available2018-09-17T15:51:43Z
dc.date.copyright2018en_US
dc.date.issued2018en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117962
dc.descriptionThesis: M.B.A., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, in conjunction with the Leaders for Global Operations Program at MIT, 2018.en_US
dc.descriptionThesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, in conjunction with the Leaders for Global Operations Program at MIT, 2018.en_US
dc.descriptionCataloged from PDF version of thesis.en_US
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references (page 67).en_US
dc.description.abstractIn the last few years, US hospitals have faced severe challenges with bed capacity management that leads to capacity congestion. Delivering patients to the right bed at the right time is very important to patient care quality. However, the current process employs a self-reporting system to receive bed availability from each unit. This method does not provide consistent estimates nor does it provide a standardized, proactive bed capacity management perspective. In addition, the Department of Medicine (DOM) has a very complex patient population, both clinically and non-clinically. Various team structure and uneven distributed bed resources introduce additional challenge on patient discharges. The project aims to develop a predictive analytics tool that consistently and reliably identifies potential patient discharges in the next 24 hours. The prediction tool allows hospitals to incorporate a more proactive bed capacity management process. Every day, a ranked list with each patient's likelihood to be discharged will be the output. This list guides a more focused conversation within the care team to make patient discharge decisions. In addition, the prediction tool provides a comprehensive summary of barriers to discharge. In this work, we extended the model developed by Zanger [9] for predicting surgical patients' discharges to medicine inpatients' discharge prediction. By partitioning the training and validation set by the date on 12/31/2017, the current performance for the full model on January 2018 medicine inpatients has a prediction power of - 0.74 (Area Under Curve of a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve - AUC ROC there onwards). We further evaluated the model performance for specific patient populations. With patients' Length-Of-Stay (LOS) up to 3 days, the model's performance in terms of AUC ROC can reach ~ 0.8; 0.78 for model with patients' LOS up to 5 days, 0.77 for model with patients' LOS up to 7 days, and 0.72 for model with patients' performance up to 12 days. In addition, the model can capture 57.8% discharges in the next 48 hours, and 33.1% discharges in the next 24 hours.en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityby Ling Qi.en_US
dc.format.extent67 pagesen_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherMassachusetts Institute of Technologyen_US
dc.rightsMIT theses are protected by copyright. They may be viewed, downloaded, or printed from this source but further reproduction or distribution in any format is prohibited without written permission.en_US
dc.rights.urihttp://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/7582en_US
dc.subjectSloan School of Management.en_US
dc.subjectMechanical Engineering.en_US
dc.subjectLeaders for Global Operations Program.en_US
dc.titlePredicting department of medicine inpatients' discharges at US hospitalsen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.description.degreeM.B.A.en_US
dc.description.degreeS.M.en_US
dc.contributor.departmentLeaders for Global Operations Program at MITen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Mechanical Engineering
dc.contributor.departmentSloan School of Management
dc.identifier.oclc1051237607en_US


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