Housing demand, regional house prices and consumption

Abstract

This paper provides a new explanation for regional variation in the 2000-2012 housing and consumption boom and bust. Cities with a greater share of growing industries experienced larger housing demand shocks, larger house price increases from 2001-2006 and greater price declines from 2006-2011. Consistent with theory, price effects were stronger in housing-supply inelastic cities. City-level differences in housing demand are also correlated with supply elasticity. Controlling for industry, I estimate a durables consumption-house price elasticity of 0.08 from 2001-2006, 60% smaller than estimates without the controls. Post- 2006, the estimated elasticity is 0.19 and housing prices rather than local conditions explain consumption changes.