The Boston Seaport : an economic analysis of large scale urban redevelopment on adjacent residential real estate values

Abstract

This paper develops a Repeat-Sales Price Index on an unbalanced panel of residential real estate properties. Facilitated by price index creation, this study analyzes the change in housing price levels in South Boston, Massachusetts over the period of time of a major adjacent redevelopment, The Seaport. The main purpose is to determine the effect of large scale urban redevelopment projects on adjacent housing prices over time. Using comprehensive residential sales data from The Warren Group, this paper offers an analytical tool that can be utilized by stakeholders such as policy makers, investors, developers and homeowners. It informs a deeper understanding of the potential effects of large scale redevelopment on affordable housing and gentrification, investment returns, urban land theory and homeowner equity. During the study period from 1996 - 2017, results show that South Boston housing in the "Closest to the Seaport Redevelopment" distance quartile range earned an additional 6.21% in annual price growth than South Boston housing in the "Furthest from the Seaport Redevelopment" distance quartile range. This result is compared with a composite Boston housing benchmark of 15 zip codes (excluding South Boston and The Seaport). Results demonstrate that South Boston residential real estate located closer to the Seaport grew a total of 130% more than South Boston residential real estate located further away from 1996 - 2017, statistically significant with 95% confidence.