Machine learning for time series anomaly detection

Abstract

In this thesis, I explored machine learning and other statistical techniques for anomaly detection on time series data obtained from Internet-of-Things sensors. The data, obtained from satellite telemetry signals, were used to train models to forecast a signal based on its historic patterns. When the prediction passed a dynamic error threshold, then that point was flagged as anomalous. I used multiple models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), autoregression, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Encoder-Decoder LSTM. I used the "Detecting Spacecraft Anomalies Using LSTMs and Nonparametric Dynamic Thresholding" paper as a basis for my analysis, and was able to beat their performance on anomaly detection by obtaining an F0.5 score of 76%, an improvement over their 69% score.