Impact of Japanese high-speed rail extension on aviation : a case study

Abstract

Since the 1964 introduction of high-speed rail in Japan, intercity transportation has largely been provided by high-speed rail and aviation. As new lines have been added to the high-speed rail network-further enhancing convenience and shortening travel times- more and more passengers prefer it. On the other hand, aviation has also increased in importance with the increase in airport capacity and the entrance of new, low-cost carriers. One major focus is the Tokyo-Sapporo route, which is one of the busiest domestic flight routes in the world. Intercity transportation in Japan may be about to change, however, since high-speed rail is expected to be extended in 2030 that directly links central Tokyo and Sapporo. To develop an optimal strategy for high-speed rail planning, predicting the effect of the high-speed rail extension is essential.

The objective of this thesis is to clarify the effect of high-speed rail extension on air transportation and predict the modal share for the Tokyo-Sapporo route. This thesis consists of two sections. In the first section, the relationship between high-speed rail and air transportation is analyzed through several case studies. The result shows that airlines reacted differently depending on the route, improving operational efficiency by changing aircraft size, flight frequency, and airfares. In the second section, discrete choice models are introduced for predicting the effect of the high-speed rail extension. To analyze the growing effect of low-cost carriers, a nested logit model is used. The results show that in-vehicle travel time is the most significant factor in passengers' mode choice, implying that high-speed rail will increase its modal share by reducing in-vehicle travel time. The modal share for high-speed rail between Tokyo and Sapporo is estimated through the simulation.

The results suggest that travel time and cost have different characteristics in terms of elasticity, indicating the importance of travel time in the increase of high-speed rail's modal share. Although accurately predicting the share is difficult due to uncertainty about emerging demand for low-cost carriers and high-speed rail travel times, the modal share of high-speed rail is estimated.