Future transit service for a broader user base : demand analysis of hypothetical autonomous vehicle mobility services using a stated preference approach

Abstract

Mobility services and autonomous vehicles (AVs) are predicted to be key revolutionary forces in the future of transportation. In particular, certain forms of the amalgamations of the two technologies not only are expected to offer cost reduction to service providers, but are thought to be available in the fairly near future. However, the introduction of such services, if not properly handled or responded to, could place stress on present-day public transportation and lead to adverse impact on the urban landscape. At a minimum, an AV-based service could be deployed as a standalone mode, such as AV ride-hailing, or integrated with other modes. We postulate that it could be both socially beneficial and appealing to consumers to combine the advantages of AV ride-hailing and public transportation in an integrated transit-oriented mobility service with AV feeders (referred to as AV+PT mode in this thesis).

Given the potential significance of AV ride-hailing services, the understanding of consumer preference for such services, or ride-hailing in general, is far from sufficient. Therefore, in this thesis, using data collected from about 3,000 respondents in Cook County, Illinois during November and December of 2018 through an online questionnaire developed in this thesis, we analyse revealed and stated travel behaviours as they relate to standalone and integrated AV services. In particular, the contributions of the thesis are organised around three objectives. Firstly, we deepen the understanding of the present-day ride-hailing service usage behaviour, and find significant behavioural overlap between ride-hailing users and transit users. Secondly, we develop insights into characteristics of individuals more likely to adopt hypothetical AV ride-hailing and AV+PT services.

Finally, we find that by combining transit with AV, AV+PT services potentially benefit transit operations in three ways: it could increase the combined transit and AV+PT market share, it could appeal to a broader user base, including individuals living farther away from transit stations and individuals currently using transit, driving and ride-hailing, and it could increase the resilience of transit-based services' mode shares even when travellers become more attuned to ride-hailing.