An Evaluation of Hurricane Superintensity in Axisymmetric Numerical Models

Abstract

Potential intensity (PI) is an analytical bound on steady, inviscid, axisymmetric hurricane wind speed. Studies have shown that simulated hurricane azimuthal wind speed can greatly exceed a PI bound on the maximum gradient wind. This disparity is called superintensity (SI) and has been attributed to the contribution of the unbalanced flow to the azimuthal wind. The goals of this study are 1) to introduce a new surface wind PI (PIs), based on a differential Carnot cycle and bounding the magnitude of the surface winds; 2) to evaluate SI in numerical simulations with respect to diagnostic PI bounds on gradient wind (PIg), azimuthal wind (PIa), and surface wind (PIs); and 3) to evaluate the validity of each PI bound based on the SI computations. Here, we define superintensity as the normalized amount by which each version of PI is exceeded by the quantity it bounds. Axisymmetric tropical cyclone simulations are performed while varying the parameterized turbulent mixing as a way of estimating SI in the inviscid limit. As the mixing length decreases, all three bounded wind speeds increase similarly from a sub-PI state to a marginally superintense state. This shows that all three forms of PI evaluated here are good approximations to their respective metrics in numerical simulations. Keywords: Frontogenesis/frontolysis; Tropical cyclones; Mesoscale models