The depth of the river : student matriculation decisions and the black-white college completion gap

Abstract

In the United States, black college students are less likely to graduate than white students, which has lead many to argue that the "climate" at colleges and universities is not conducive to black students' success. However, another factor may also be important: an insufficient pipeline of college-ready black high school graduates. The process through which students select colleges can lead this insufficient pipeline to be reflected as a black-white completion gap within a given college even if all black and white admitted students are equally likely to complete college. Highly college ready black high school graduates are likely to receive more offers of admission than white peers and are less likely to attend any given college, leading black matriculents at a given college to be less college ready on average than white classmates. With data on the full set of admits and matriculants at a US college, we observe a black-white completion gap with matriculants but estimate that no such gap would occur if every admitted student chose to matriculate. This implies that a completion gap could be generated solely through black and white students' matriculation decisions and ensuing differences in college readiness.