Protest without repression : protest policing and nonviolent resistance in the US

Abstract

Activists often identify violent repression, and ensuing backlash, as a key mechanism through which peaceful protests can successfully achieve political change. This view has been affirmed by a body of research showing that the violent repression of protest can raise awareness of and build support for the protesters. And US history has many examples of these repression backlash benefiting protesters, from the Birmingham bus boycotts to the "Bonus Army" March on Washington, to the Kent State shootings. However, in the United States, and in other western democracies, the probability of violent police repression of protests has varied significantly over time, as a result of a multitude of institutional factors. While the impacts of repressed protest have been documented, how peaceful protests fare in the absence of repression is less well-understood.

This dissertation explores whether the absence of repression impacts protests' ability to capture attention and persuade the public, and whether the absence of repression impacts the types of protests that are successful. To answer these two questions, I draw on a wide array of data sources, including a novel dataset of local protests coded from protest permit applications, geo-referenced Google search data, Wikipedia page-view data, New York Times coverage data, historical archives of an activist group's internal communications. I show that, while repression makes it easier for protests to garner news coverage, command public attention, and persuade the public, it is not a necessary condition. Peaceful protests can achieve these outcomes without repression if they can become newsworthy in other ways, such as by increasing the scale of the protest.

I also show that in the absence of repression, the types of protests that achieve success are similar in background to the protests that achieve success in the presence of repression. Unlike some other forms of political participation, the resources needed to succeed without repression do not appear to be skewed towards individuals or groups with higher socio-economic status. Although the probability of violent repression changes over time, protests continue to serve as an effective tactic for a relatively small group to capture attention and build broader support.