Energy transition in Singapore : a system dynamics analysis on policy choices for a sustainable future

Abstract

95% of Singapore's electricity is generated from imported natural gas, which poses fundamental economic and security risks. Solar power is the only local renewable energy resource available but it is insufficient to meet all electricity demand. There is value to consider what Singapore can do to maintain competitive advantage as a country while diversifying its electricity generation landscape and lowering its greenhouse gas emissions. A system dynamics model was built and different key policy scenarios were simulated to observe potential outcomes of Singapore's electricity landscape by 2100. Model findings suggest that the current Business-As-Usual (BAU) path of focusing on energy efficiency initiatives, maximizing local solar resources, and continual usage of natural gas fired plants is a good short-term to mid-term strategy but a poor long-term strategy. The recommended strategy of adding nuclear into the energy mix through offshore floating nuclear plants has the lowest long-run socioeconomic costs. Adding both nuclear and importing renewable based electricity as part of the ASEAN Power Grid as a strategy requires the highest total infrastructure investments. Both alternatives provide reliable outcomes in lowering greenhouse gas emissions and have the potential to promote greater multilateral relationships and economic co-development between Singapore and its neighbors.