Dynamic modelling of Japan's transition to offshore energies

Abstract

The feasibility of utilizing the offshore environment and its resources to address the energy challenges identified by the Japanese Government is presented in this thesis. The thesis will be framed by the key energy challenges which include: (1) energy security, (2) environmental impact, (3) economy efficiency and (4) safety. The unique energy situation that Japan is in due to its geography, historic energy policies and energy economy will be considered as well. Subsequently, possible offshore energies to address the challenges Japan faces such as its lack of land space, societal acceptance of nuclear energy, lack of energy resources and its high frequencies of seismic activities will be examined. Finally, using system dynamics modelling, an abstracted model of Japan's energy industry will be used to study the feasibilities and the potential impacts of the proposed offshore solutions. Specifically, the model examines the impacts on Japan's energy self-sufficiency, electricity pricing and CO₂ emissions. The model will show that based on Japan's Business As Usual (BAU) approach, it would likely not meet its intended energy security, economic and, environmental targets. Two key conclusions are drawn from the study on Japan's energy policy and modelling results. First, Japan's decision to meet the diverse range of demands on their energy solution leads them to set inconsistent energy goals. This in turn overly restricts their energy solutioning. Second, that greater energy diversity through offshore energies will improve the prospects of helping Japan reduce projected electricity prices, enhance Japan's energy security through greater self-sufficiency and help reduce CO₂ emissions significantly.