An integrated model-based approach to improving project control in Department of Defense acquisition

Abstract

The United States no longer has the luxury of overspending on military weapon systems. Military programs have steadily cost more, taken longer, and delivered less. How can the Department of Defense reverse this trend? The Department of Defense prescribes the use of an Earned Value Management System (EVMS) to control large, complex engineering projects. According to academic literature, the earned value method can be an effective project control technique but also has significant flaws. Modern integrated project models allow for innovative new approaches to project control which may be superior to the earned value method. Department of Defense policy reveals that integrating cost, schedule, and scope; accurately forecasting project status to allow for proactive decision making; and effective risk mitigation are the most important features of a project control method. This thesis reviews earned value method research and Department of Defense EVMS policy. This thesis also evaluates four project control methods through an experiment that uses an integrated project model. Subject to the specific conditions represented in the model, a Multiple Risk Level model-based control method enabled more proactive decision making than a modified version of the earned value method in the experiment. However, the Multiple Risk Level model did not forecast or enable risk mitigation as well as the modified earned value method in the experiment. The results of this analysis suggest that the ideal project control technique depends on the goals, nature, and environment of the project. Therefore, the Department of Defense should use integrated project models to tailor project control strategies to best suit acquisition programs.