Potential Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Urban Sprawl: A Comparison of Chinese and US Car-Oriented Adults

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) may significantly impact people’s choice of residential locations and spatial structures. The impact may vary across different countries, but few studies have focused on it. This study drew on China and the United States (US) as two cases to study car drivers’ knowledge of AVs and willingness to move farther if AVs were available by estimating ordered logistic regression models. The results showed that 42.3% of Chinese and 29.8% of US respondents were likely to consider moving farther away from the nearest city or the destination for the most frequent trip if they had an AV. The Chinese sample had less knowledge of AVs than the US sample, but they were more likely to consider a move. AVs may lead to a new round of urban sprawl, but the challenge may be greater for China. We captured the socio-economic and transport factors that affected this result.