Evolution of low-cost airlines in different global regions

Abstract

Low-cost air carriers have been growing aggressively in many regions around the world and today offer a significant proportion of the available flight and seat capacity in the markets where they operate. This thesis studies the airline capacity evolution of low-cost carriers (LCCs) between 2009 and 2018 in several different types of market regions, both long and short-haul as well as mature versus emerging air travel markets. Between 2009 and 2018, domestic India and domestic China had the fastest growth in total airline capacity, growing at a CAGR of 12.0% and 11.1% respectively. The more mature markets saw much slower growth - the intra-Europe region grew at a 5.6% CAGR while both the domestic US and domestic Australia regions grew at a CAGR less than 3% during the 10-year period. The domestic India region had the highest gain in low-cost carrier share of capacity, which grew by 26 points - from 43% of domestic capacity in 2009 to 69% in 2018. The growth of low-cost carrier capacity share was much smaller or even negative in other regions: 10 points in intra-Europe (from 40% to 50%), 9 points in domestic China (from 3% to 12%), 9 points in domestic US (31% to 40%), 7 points in the transatlantic region (2% to 9%) and -22 points in domestic Australia (50% to 28%). In the mature markets analyzed (except Australia), much of the growth in the low-cost carrier sector has come from ultra-low-cost carriers adding capacity as traditional LCCs are now moving upmarket due to increasing costs. While total capacities in the emerging markets grew rapidly, the growth has come from different sources. LCCs in India have grown significantly, primarily due to the very large demand for low-fare air travel in the country. On the other hand, much of the growth in China has come from legacy carriers; the slower growth in the Chinese LCC sector is explained by unsupportive government regulations and a lack of low-cost airport infrastructure. LCCs operating in the transatlantic region have also seen slow growth due to the various difficulties of operating low-cost in long haul sectors, with many LCCs going bankrupt and ceasing operations.