Investigating the Hydrogen Supply Chain for Low-Carbon Power Generation Under Future Uncertainties: A Tradespace Exploration Approach

Abstract

The decarbonization of the power sector, which has been heavily dependent on fossil fuels, has been one of the critical global issues following the Paris climate agreement. Renewable energy is seen as the clean and sustainable solution, but the lack of these resources due to non-uniform distribution in certain highly industrialized countries, especially those that rely on energy imports to meet demand, presents significant challenges to the energy transition plans. Hydrogen is a potential carrier for the export of surplus energy from regions with abundant renewable resources, as it can be stored and transported in bulk over long distances in various forms such as liquid hydrogen, ammonia, and organic hydrides.

In this thesis, a systems engineering approach is taken to evaluate the entire value chain of hydrogen from its production to the end-use application in electricity generation. The multi-attribute tradespace exploration (MATE) technique is applied to study the cost and emissions impact of power generation using various hydrogen pathways compared to fossil fuels. The external and internal uncertainties are then analyzed using epoch-era analysis (EEA) and Monte Carlo simulation, respectively. The application of these methods is demonstrated through a case study on Japan, where the government has set an ambitious goal of halving the nation’s carbon emissions in a decade. The results suggest that the combustion of imported liquefied natural gas fuel in combined cycle gas turbine with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology is a value robust solution in the immediate future, considering economic, technological, and policy uncertainties. While low- or zero-carbon hydrogen offers incremental utility, it is found to be not yet cost- competitive for large-scale adoption.