Applying tradespace exploration methods to remote sensing system of systems for wildfire detection and management

Abstract

In recent years the world has seen wildfires cause an increasing amount of damage and take more human lives. Studies have shown that this is a result of climate change, which is only going to get worse as time goes on. Currently, firefighting teams have limited access to technologies that could help them reduce the damage of wildfires. Both the firefighting and fire science community have shown interest in using drones and satellites to help with the fire detection and fire management efforts. Both drones and satellite have various tradeoffs when being used for remote sensing applications. To determine what combinations of sensors would best suit the needs of the firefighting and fire science communities, this project conducts a trade study where the relative utilities and cost of the combined systems can be compared. Four phases of the candidate systems operation were identified, fire prediction, fire detection, fire monitoring, and fire damage assessment. Each of these operational phases were used to determine the overall utility of the candidate system. Additionally, the Camp fire (California, 2018) was used as a reference fire to evaluate the utility during each of these phases. It was found that a system of systems comprised of multiple geosynchronous satellites and aircraft would be the optimal system at a cost of 518 million USD. This system would use the geosynchronous orbiting satellites primarily for prediction, detection and damage assessment. The aircraft would primarily be used for monitoring active fires. While this study was focused on the support of one large fire in the western U.S., to support additional areas additional satellites or aircraft could be added as needed.