Quantifying the Impact of COVID19 on US State GDPs

Abstract

We have developed a system dynamics model of the economic impact of COVID-19 in the USA. Our model calculates the net impact of covid on a given states GDP and subtracts it from the non-pandemic counterfactual (continued growth at the same right as in the immediate pre-pandemic years). The model’s results show a $1.7 t loss in GDP attributable to covid and spread out over the 2 years since the initial shock in Q1 of 2022.