Simulating COVID-19 Personal Protective Equipment Use in Acute Care Hospitals

Abstract

America faced crippling shortages of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020-2021. In response to these recent shortages, policy makers, emergency responders, public health agencies and private healthcare facilities are investing significant time and money to ensure America is better equipped to meet the need for PPE in the next pandemic. As America pours money into larger stockpiles and increased domestic manufacturing, it is crucial that decision makers understand PPE demand during COVID-19-type pandemics so they can allocate resources appropriately. This thesis aims to answer two central questions: 1) How can planners forecast PPE use in acute care hospitals for future COVID-19- type pandemics? 2) How can the model used to develop these forecasts contribute to a robust PPE preparedness plan?

This thesis presents a simulation that can be used by planners to forecast PPE use in acute care hospitals. The simulation is then applied in a case study to demonstrate potential applications and identify opportunities to shape PPE demand through hospital policy. By implementing conservation policies, policy makers can decrease N95 facepiece respirator use by 47%, and gown and glove use by over 50% in acute care hospitals during a COVID-19-type pandemic. In an environment where significant attention is being paid to increasing supply capacity, a focus on shaping demand at the source is an often neglected, but critical, aspect of enabling supply capacity to meet pandemic demand.