Environmental Impact of Space Launches and Societal Response

Abstract

Space-based technologies can be valuable assets for environmental protection and for supporting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on Earth. However, these activities have their own share of environmental impacts. Throughout their life cycle, launch vehicles affect their local and global environments both on Earth and in space. In particular, they generate direct emissions of combustion products into every layer of the atmosphere, inducing ozone depletion and radiative forcing. Recent literature indicates that these consequences of space launches are understudied, especially considering the space industry's projected growth. This thesis aims at assessing the situation in terms of current and future environmental impact, as well as society’s response to the issue.

A historical analysis of space launch vehicle designs is conducted, based on a comprehensive record of 6,502 orbital launches for the period 1957-2021, to inform on technological evolution and implications in terms of emissions. This study suggests that, as part of today's unprecedented diversity in rocket designs, key decisions regarding engines and propellants are being made which will decide the future atmospheric impact of the industry. Trends in the space sector are analyzed and scenarios are generated to assess the future situation.

For the first time, societal response to this issue is analyzed quantitatively and compared with three case studies in the automotive industry, the satellite industry, and aviation. A total of 463,630,586 news articles, 771,604 legal documents, 10,836,398 academic publications over 30 years were examined.

Alternative paths forward are proposed to foster a more sustainable future for the space launch industry, in terms of actionable design choices, impact assessment methodologies, regulatory options, and market-based incentivization mechanisms based on a sustainability index for launch vehicles.