Techno-Economic Modeling and Optimization of Hydrogen Supply Chain for Aviation Demand

Abstract

The aviation industry is under increasing pressure to find solutions to decarbonize its operations by 2050. Few viable solutions exist for the sector to reach net zero emissions – the main ones under consideration are synthetic fuels (sustainable aviation fuels from biomass or power-to-liquid fuels from green hydrogen), and liquid hydrogen. This work considers the liquid hydrogen pathway and a flight network in Europe consisting of five countries and flights within 1000 nmi. The DOLPHYN energy systems capacity expansion and economic dispatch model considers existing and future technologies under a strict emissions cap for the year 2040, while optimizing the overall system for cost. This work highlights the importance of utilizing multiple technology options in order to achieve decarbonization targets: such as nuclear expansion, carbon capture and storage, and natural gas reforming with carbon capture for hydrogen production. The lowest cost system is achieved when nuclear power is allowed to expand, whereas the highest cost system arises when carbon capture and storage is not developed. Average system-wide levelized cost of hydrogen is projected at below €2/kg, demonstrating pathways for Europe to achieve cost-competitive domestic production, when hydrogen is deployed at large scale in coordination with power sector expansion.