System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis of Continuous Production Agility: Policies and Enablers for Resilient Satellite Constellations

Abstract

As space becomes more proliferated with satellite constellations from commercial and government actors, the ability to deploy and sustain these critical assets on-orbit grows in importance. The traditional risk-adverse approach for space systems trended towards longer development cycles and highly optimized payload and bus designs, leading to high program costs. However, with the advent of small satellite megaconstellations by commercial companies such as SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s project Kuiper, the paradigm has started to shift towards an agile, rapid approach to satellite production and engineering. In 2020, the Aerospace Corporation proposed an approach dubbed Continuous Production Agility (CPA), which features include streamlined satellite manufacturing lines, a schedule-certain basis for launch, and standards and mindsets that contribute to industry learning curves. In this paper, a CPA system dynamics model was constructed utilizing industry feedback loops to examine the viability of a CPA approach in terms of on-orbit constellation resilience and total program costs. The results demonstrate how a CPA approach can lead to faster reconstitution of satellite constellations when subject to harsh space environments. Total program cost performance of the CPA approach varied when compared to the traditional, launch-on-demand approach depending on the raw number of satellites and launch vehicles utilized for this superior performance; however, per-unit costs and industry learning captured in the long term benefitted from the CPA approach. Risk-tolerant approaches also proved to be effective in driving down costs for mass-producing satellites. It is anticipated that space actors will work with companies around the globe to shift to these competitive CPA-oriented strategies as space strategies become more oriented towards agility and flexibility. These approaches could benefit not only from technology enablers but from various domestic and international policy developments to foster proper regulation and innovation in this era of new, proliferated space.