Scenario Planning Framework & Sensitivity Analysis for New Orthopedic Sets in the Spine Platform

Abstract

Spinal surgeries are a critical part of providing patients relief from spinal degenerative diseases or deformities. Johnson & Johnson is developing a new spinal product in the Thoracolumbar space that builds on features of their legacy products in order to provide patients with high-quality pain relief.

The goals of this project are twofold within the Thoracolumbar spine family of products. The first goal is to understand how inventory can be modeled over a long-time horizon for a new product launch. Forecasting over a long time-horizon is difficult due to uncertainty and exacerbated for new products due to a lack of historical data. The second goal is to understand the implications of various product launch scenarios on the broader Spine product family.

To accomplish the first goal, a baseline model was created and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to analyze the impacts of changing prices and cost of goods sold on the profitability of the product family. The second goal was approached by developing a scenario model framework for product launches within the Spine business. The baseline model provided the team with an understanding of the most critical drivers of gross profitability for this product. The scenario framework provided a structured way for the team to identify and prioritize scenarios.