Alternative Fuels and Powertrains to Decarbonize Heavy Duty Trucking

Abstract

Amid mounting urgency to rapidly decarbonize the global economy in the coming decades, the trucking industry sits on the cusp of a dramatic transition to low-carbon alternative fuels and powertrains. Technological trends suggest that multiple solutions will emerge in the near term to fill different niches of the trucking market. Faced with a diverse and continually evolving space of alternatives, each with its own set of up-front costs and risks, industry stakeholders report decision paralysis when it comes to navigating the transition. In the coming years, a valley of death period is anticipated during which up-front costs of purchasing alternative vehicles and installing refueling infrastructure will be high, and availability of public infrastructure will be limited. Governments have a crucial role to play in providing the regulation and incentives needed to ensure that companies and customers are able and willing to pay higher costs and take on financial risk to bridge the valley of death. In addition, owing to their geographical flexibility and capacity to take on up-front costs and risk, there is an opportunity for large fleets to leverage first mover advantages in the space and take the lead in piloting and adopting alternative fuels and powertrains. Informed by perspectives from industry members of the MIT Climate & Sustainability Consortium (MCSC), and insights shared by invited experts from academia and industry during a study panel hosted by the MCSC, we identify near-term priorities to support industry stakeholders in overcoming decision paralysis, navigating the valley of death, and positioning trucking fleets to thrive as the industry transitions to alternative fuels and powertrains.