Direct Air Capture as a Carbon Removal Solution: Analyzing Scale-Up, Cost Reduction, and Pathways for Acceleration
Author(s)
DiMartino, Brooke B.
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Advisor
Cameron, Bruce G.
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In addition to drastic reductions in global carbon dioxide emissions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has stated with high confidence that carbon dioxide removal will be needed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. Direct air capture is a novel carbon removal technique that is gaining attention for its potential contribution to the portfolio of carbon removal solutions. As its primary barrier to deployment is high costs, there is a focus on understanding how this technology could reach lower costs by mid-century.
This thesis uses technological change theory to investigate potential scale-up and cost reduction forecasts for existing direct air capture methods. The literature review provides context for carbon dioxide removal, direct air capture, and technological change theory. Analogous technologies are reviewed for cost-reduction drivers and compared to the common direct air capture methods. This comparison is used for learning and improvement rate analysis to estimate cost reduction forecasts for mature direct air capture methods, then used to identify levers that direct air capture stakeholders can deploy to accelerate scale-up and cost reductions.
The results suggest solid sorbent direct air capture (S-DAC) could achieve costs of $100-$400/tonCO2 by 2050, while liquid solvent direct air capture (L-DAC) may reach $100-$220/tonCO2 in the same period. For the base assumptions investigated, S-DAC reaches the 45Q U.S. tax credit threshold in 2041 using a single-factor improvement rate analysis and in 2040 using component-based. L-DAC reaches the threshold in 2034 for single-factor and in 2037 for component-based improvement rates. Neither method reaches the threshold using a single-factor or component-based learning rate analysis under base assumptions.
The analog analysis emphasizes the importance of a variety of direct air capture stakeholders in accelerating the technology’s scale-up and cost reductions. Policymakers can develop standards for measurement, reporting, and verification of carbon dioxide removal. The private sector can set clear requirements for carbon removal purchases focusing on proven, durable, measurable methods with clear paths for cost reductions. Direct air capture providers can focus on early design choices that enable cost reductions and work to build economies of scale in manufacturing. The findings indicate that the technology may reach cost-competitive thresholds by mid-century and that stakeholders across the direct air capture ecosystem have opportunities to accelerate this transition.
Date issued
2023-09Department
System Design and Management Program.Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology