The power-gas demand impacts and regulatory implications for the future of gas systems under the electrification of space heating in cold climates

Abstract

The call for action to mitigate GHG emissions necessitates the decarbonization of the building sector. The electrification of heating, especially via efficient air-source heat pumps coupled with a low-carbon electricity grid, is considered an attractive option for displacing emissions from fossil-fueled heating systems. While the opportunity for decarbonization is high in emission-intensive housing stocks such as that of the U.S. New England region, the high demand for heating in cold climates elicits concerns about energy demand impacts. Furthermore, there is concern about what electrification and the broader call for decarbonization might imply for gas distribution systems, which will face declining usage and most likely infrastructural retirement.

First, this thesis develops a bottom-up building energy modeling framework to quantify the hourly power and gas demand impacts of the electrification of residential heating in New England under a range of electrification and weather scenarios for 2050. We find that deep electrification greatly diminishes gas demand and increases electricity demand, with a potentially drastic increase in peak electricity demand given current technologies. Furthermore, the weather-induced variation in peak demand becomes more drastic. These adverse demand impacts can be mitigated by envelope improvements and motivate the implementation of demand-side flexibility, but the effectiveness of these measures may be limited by long peak demand durations. However, the adverse demand impacts of deep electrification must be weighed against the downsides of less-aggressive electrification, which might actually result in worse demand impacts in the long term. Second, we compare the current future gas system planning frameworks of Massachusetts regulators against other states, finding that policymakers in Massachusetts must address several issues in order to prepare for the transformative effect that electrification will have on gas distribution systems. Resulting recommendations highlight the need for continuous long-term gas planning procedures, legal reform of the consumer right to gas service, a cautious approach towards considering alternative fuels as a mechanism for gas system decarbonization, and prioritization of equity in allocation of the costs of gas system retirement.