Evaluating the Infrastructure Requirements of a Low-Carbon Hydrogen Supply Chain in Germany and theGulf Coast

Abstract

The increasing political momentum advocating for decarbonization efforts, in Europe and elsewhere, has led many governments to unveil national hydrogen strategies. Hydrogen is viewed as a potential enabler of deep decarbonization, notably in hard-to-abate sectors such as the industry. A novel optimal low-carbon hydrogen network algorithm was developed to assess the supply chain requirements of systems with increasing electrolytic hydrogen production levels. This model was used to investigate the low-carbon hydrogen procurement strategies of Germany and the Gulf Coast, with a focus on industrial demand.

An initial case explored a self-sufficiency scenario in which the studied region would domestically procure hydrogen with electrolytic production. Results show important synergies between electrolytic production powered by a mix of renewables, large-scale hydrogen storage in the form of salt caverns, and hydrogen pipelines. The optimal power mix in the Gulf Coast consists of a majority of wind turbines, while Germany deploys a larger share of solar panels. The levelized cost of hydrogen, which includes storage and transport, totals ~$5.5-6.2kgH₂ in the Gulf Coast (2025), and 4.9-6.1 €/kgH₂ in Germany (2025). Replacing salt caverns with compressed and liquid tank storage drastically changes the system, which deploys more renewable capacity to avoid storage needs but ultimately increases curtailment, driving costs up by ~$1/kgH₂ in the Gulf Coast and 1.0-2.2 €/kgH₂ in Germany. This calls for a centralized approach to building out the supply chain, requiring extensive stakeholder collaboration. Furthermore, optimal electrolytic production requires low capacity factors (40-70%) to truly achieve low-carbon status with renewable electricity at all times, which impacts the levelized cost of hydrogen and keeps it high (>$4 (and €)/kgH₂) even in 2050. It was found that electricity storage is not economical to increase electrolytic capacity factors at times of low renewable production.

Natural gas-derived production was found to be significantly impacted by upstream supply chain emissions of electricity and natural gas. Maintaining such production will require important reductions of the methane leakage rate and electricity carbon footprint, alongside a high carbon capture rate at the process level. Finally, in the case of Germany, pipeline imports from neighboring countries were found to have important systemic benefits and provide a viable pathway to decarbonization, but the local large-scale storage of these potentially variable imports should not be overlooked.