CO₂ and public health impacts of US residential heating electrification

Abstract

US Residential combustion heating is currently estimated to lead to ~10,000 premature mortalities annually due to degraded air quality. Replacement of this combustion heating with electric heating is expected to reduce these impacts by shifting emissions away from population centers to electric generators. However, these benefits have not been assessed. This thesis quantifies the health impacts of replacing residential combustion heating with electric heating in the US due to changes in air quality. In addition, we calculate how such a change would affect fossil CO₂ emissions. We find 99% of the premature mortalities currently attributable to US residential fuel combustion can be prevented through the replacement of combustion with electric air-source heat pumps, with net benefits in every US county. Wood-burning systems alone account for 84% of this benefit, particularly in densely populated areas. However, the reduction in air pollution does not necessarily translate into CO₂ reductions, as the study highlights variations in emissions based on location and electricity grid carbon intensity. Future research will explore different assumptions regarding CO₂ emissions. The thesis concludes that electrification of residential heating offers substantial air quality benefits and potential CO₂ reductions in warmer coastal regions and areas with low grid carbon intensity. However, investment in high-efficiency solutions and further grid decarbonization may be necessary for climate benefits nationwide.