A Technical and Policy Needs Analysis for Space Traffic Management of Low Lunar Orbit

Abstract

The number of artificial objects in space has grown exponentially in the last decade, encouraging a greater focus on space safety and sustainability. Much of this focus is on the detection, tracking, cataloguing, and coordination of objects in space, also known as Space Traffic Management, which serves to prevent collisions in orbit. The cost of a collision in space is often very high--loss of mission, loss of societal support, or even loss of life. Beyond geosynchronous orbit, the Artemis mission brings a renewed excitement for lunar operations, and many countries plan to send missions to the moon in the coming decades. As this topic is quite future-looking, there are many gaps in research related to lunar Space Traffic Management. This thesis serves to begin filling these gaps by answering if Space Traffic Management will be necessary for low-altitude selenocentric orbits. This thesis analyzes the likelihood of collisions in Low Lunar Orbit using NASA's General Mission Analysis Tool and a GRAIL-based gravity model with 70 x 70 degree and order to propagate selenocentric orbits. These propagations are run using high performance computing through the MIT SuperCloud. Methods of preventing collisions are discussed with propagation analysis conducted. A discussion on recommendations on which satellites should maneuver if both have the capability is provided. Analysis found that impulsive burns are viable solutions to avoiding collisions. This thesis also serves to promote proactive development of a Space Traffic Management system for Low Lunar Orbit by discussing five main policy questions focused on the sustainability of Low Lunar Orbit. For each of these questions, the current solution used around Earth is given, followed by a discussion of the possible solutions that could be implemented in Low Lunar Orbit.