On Power: How Colombia’s National Oil Company Can Support the Country’s Energy Transition

Abstract

This thesis is organized in two parts. Part I argues that national oil companies, which now own and produce most of the world’s oil, will be protagonists in the transition to low-carbon energy sources. The pathways that these companies take will be distinct from country to country and will define how the transition plays out globally. Part II sites my analysis in Colombia. It is an exercise in memory, reflection, and imagination based on a series of conversations with current and former decisionmakers in the country’s energy sector. I show how the power supply crisis of 1992 revealed inseparable links between climate, energy, capital, and policy. I argue that growing and greening the power sector will require stronger central planning and favoring power purchase agreements over spot transactions. And I envision a country in which Colombia’s state-owned Ecopetrol is no longer an oil company. It contributes to a sovereign wealth fund for the country’s transition, leads R&D efforts, and has become an important player in power transmission and generation. Ecopetrol sells green hydrogen — instead of fossil fuels — to Europe and Asia. It has shifted from geology to geography, from offshore drilling to offshore wind. Is this country inherently different from twenty-first century Colombia?