Examining the Economic Impact of Anti-Warehouse Development Policies in California: A Case Study of the San Diego Market

Abstract

This thesis conducts a detailed examination of the implications of anti-warehouse development policies in San Diego, focusing on their impacts on key economic indicators from 2024 to 2034. The research provides an overview of the U.S. industrial market, addressing crucial topics such as logistics market size, job creation, and the growth of e-commerce, while also exploring the NIMBY phenomenon and its influence on community opposition to developments, including a discussion of Bill 98 and its legislative implications. A specific focus on the industrial market in Southern California reveals important insights into job growth, rental rates, and market dynamics in San Diego. Through a comprehensive analytical approach, the study addresses the effects of development policies by presenting ten distinct scenarios that project delivery volumes, uncovering potential reductions ranging from 10% to 90% compared to a baseline scenario without restrictions. The analysis anticipates vacancy rates and job losses across various years, utilizing the LINEST function for forecasting key market indicators, including asking rents and asset valuations. Additionally, the research highlights the critical importance of logistics categories and decarbonization strategies to meet net-zero goals, as well as contemporary warehouse design trends and transportation innovations. The conclusions drawn from this research emphasize the complexities of balancing community interests with economic growth and sustainability in the region, as well as the broader economic implications of restrictive development policies on San Diego's warehouse industry, which could adversely affect the economic vitality of the warehouse sector.