Housing in European Metropolises: supply dynamics and planning frameworks in large Urban Areas of the EU

Abstract

Europe’s housing affordability crisis presents significant territorial challenges, particularly as housing demand increasingly spills over from inner cities to surrounding municipalities at the metropolitan scale. This study addresses key policy questions regarding the coordination of housing supply and planning instruments in large urban areas of the European Union. Focusing on 23 large Functional Urban Areas (FUAs), the research follows a three part approach: a quantitative analysis of municipal-level housing production and demographic growth between 2011 and 2021 based on Census data; an analysis of the effects of housing supply on housing prices; and an AI-powered quantitative examination of urban plans, at municipal, metropolitan, and regional scales to observe whether they establish housing supply goals. This methodology generates evidence on the spatial dynamics of housing development, by creating an EU-wide database at municipal granularity, while providing a novel focus and analytical approach to institutional urban plans as drivers of housing supply. Findings prove mixed alignments between housing supply and demographic growth, with Southern and coastal urban areas falling short on housing supply. In most cases, there is a pronounced metropolitan effect, where peripheral municipalities experience larger housing and population growth. When analyzing the plans, more frequent planning relates to larger housing provision. In addition, the research highlights that housing goals are usually determined at local plans, showing a mismatch between planning efforts and housing dynamics, which tend to be metropolitan or regional. Therefore, the research deepens the understanding of European housing provision and the planning of urban territories, highlighting the need for stronger housing policy mechanisms at the metropolitan level.