ORAKLE: Optimal Risk prediction for mAke30 in patients with sepsis associated AKI using deep LEarning

Abstract

Background Major Adverse Kidney Events within 30 days (MAKE30) is an important patient-centered outcome for assessing the impact of acute kidney injury (AKI). Existing prediction models for MAKE30 are static and overlook dynamic changes in clinical status. We introduce ORAKLE, a novel deep-learning model that utilizes evolving time-series data to predict MAKE30, enabling personalized, patient-centered approaches to AKI management and outcome improvement. Methods We conducted a retrospective study using three publicly available critical care databases: MIMIC-IV as the development cohort, and SiCdb and eICU-CRD as external validation cohorts. Patients with sepsis-3 criteria who developed AKI within 48 h of intensive care unit admission were identified. Our primary outcome was MAKE30, defined as a composite of death, new dialysis or persistent kidney dysfunction within 30 days of ICU admission. We developed ORAKLE using Dynamic DeepHit framework for time-series survival analysis and its performance against Cox and XGBoost models. We further assessed model calibration using Brier score. Results We analyzed 16,671 patients from MIMIC-IV, 2665 from SICdb, and 11,447 from eICU-CRD. ORAKLE outperformed the XGBoost and Cox models in predicting MAKE30, achieving AUROCs of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.83–0.86) vs. 0.81 (95% CI: 0.79–0.83) vs. 0.80 (95% CI: 0.78–0.82) in MIMIC-IV internal test set, 0.83 (95% CI: 0.81–0.85) vs. 0.80 (95% CI: 0.78–0.83) vs. 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77–0.81) in SICdb, and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.84–0.85) vs. 0.83 (95% CI: 0.83–0.84) vs. 0.81 (95% CI: 0.80–0.82) in eICU-CRD. The AUPRC values for ORAKLE were also significantly better than that of XGBoost and Cox models. The Brier score for ORAKLE was 0.21 across the internal test set, SICdb, and eICU-CRD, suggesting good calibration. Conclusions ORAKLE is a robust deep-learning model for predicting MAKE30 in critically ill patients with AKI that utilizes evolving time series data. By incorporating dynamically changing time series features, the model captures the evolving nature of kidney injury, treatment effects, and patient trajectories more accurately. This innovation facilitates tailored risk assessments and identifies varying treatment responses, laying the groundwork for more personalized and effective management approaches.