National Space Power Analysis Through Organizational and Market Evolution

Abstract

The space domain is undergoing fundamental changes and unprecedented growth. Once dominated by state-led missions, the space sector is now home to commercial competition, rapid innovation, and evolving models of public-private collaboration. These changes call to question how space power is built and maintained, especially during the raising geopolitical climate and power competition in space. The rise of agile commercial industry has driven down launch costs, accelerated technology development and opened new markets and business cases forcing legacy institutions to re-evaluate their strategies and business models.

This thesis is motivated by the need to understand how organizations are responding to these changes, and how their choices collectively shape the United States as a national space power. Through the application of a theoretical space power model based on war strategy and Schumpeterian innovation theory, the different elements of space power will be explored in today’s context. It seeks to identify the organizational drivers of change, tensions and synergies between legacy enterprises and new entrants, and the implications of the dynamic space ecosystem.

This thesis includes a mixed-methods analysis starting with a historical understanding of the evolution of the sector. By identifying current market trends, government policies and initiatives, the applied theoretical model is presented. The model is supported by market data, a force field analysis of organizational shifts, and qualitative interview insights from industry leaders. The research aims to contribute insights for government strategists and industry leaders concerned with America’s future as a space power and their organization’s role within it.