System thinking to analyze the Market penetration of Two-Wheeled vs Four-Wheeled EVs in India

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the disparate market penetration rates of electric two-wheelers (E2Ws) and electric four-wheelers (E4Ws) in India, using systems thinking approaches to understand the underlying dynamics and propose strategic interventions. In 2024, while E2Ws have achieved 4.43% market penetration, E4Ws lag significantly at 1.91%, despite similar policy support. Through force field analysis and stakeholder value mapping, this research identifies key factors driving this disparity and evaluates their temporal evolution over three time horizons. The analysis reveals that E2Ws benefit from stronger driving forces, including urban suitability, favorable total cost of ownership, and simpler charging solutions, with 91% of users relying on home charging. In contrast, E4Ws face more substantial barriers, particularly in upfront costs, charging infrastructure requirements, and range anxiety. Technical modeling of key Figures of Merit (FOMs) demonstrates how different optimization challenges affect each segment's market acceptance. The research culminates in recommendations for accelerating E4W adoption, emphasizing the need for India-specific models priced similar to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, localized manufacturing ecosystems, robust charging infrastructure, and innovative financing solutions. The findings suggest that while E2W adoption will continue to grow naturally, E4W penetration requires coordinated interventions across manufacturing, technology, infrastructure, policy, and consumer awareness dimensions. This research contributes to understanding how systems thinking can inform strategic planning for electric vehicle adoption in emerging markets, with specific implications for India's goal of 30% EV penetration by 2030.