Global sustainable aviation fuel production potential from current agricultural production: a holistic data analytics and systems analysis approach

Abstract

Aviation contributes significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions, driven primarily by its dependency on fossil-based jet fuel. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) offers a short-term option to mitigate these emissions. However, its current scalability remains limited, constrained by access to sustainable biomass. Realizing SAF’s potential in the near term, using the agricultural and industrial systems already in place requires a detailed understanding of biomass availability, resource competition, and the scalability of SAF production. This thesis presents a comprehensive system analysis framework and a data-driven methodology for evaluating SAF production potential based on current agricultural output, without assuming land expansion or major yield improvements and preserving food utilization. It evaluates the SAF production potential from increasing biomass availability by redirecting biomass currently used for some non-food purposes, and by utilizing processing and agricultural residue. In-depth analysis of four high-potential case studies, one for each main biomass family (starchy, sugary, oily, and fats and greases), was used to construct a detailed model of the supply chain. This structure was then applied globally across all countries and relevant feedstocks to estimate SAF production potential and associated system requirements.

Findings from the case studies show that these four high-potential opportunities could collectively meet only up to 13.1% of global jet fuel demand in 2023, assuming 100% neat SAF. The global analysis estimates that the SAF production potential from the considered streams of increased biomass availability could meet up to about two-thirds of global jet fuel demand, with 28.7% derived from agricultural residues, 25.9% from redirected main products, and 12.5% from processing residues. These contributions hence remain insufficient to fully displace fossil jet fuel. This work provides an estimate of what could be achieved using the existing agricultural and industrial systems, what resource would be required, and how it compares to global resource availability.