Decarbonization of Gas Heating in Massachusetts: An Evaluation of Current Trends and Opportunities

Abstract

The commonwealth of Massachusetts has ambitious decarbonization goals enshrined in law and has been establishing the regulations to achieve them. Through its Department of Public Utilities regulatory rulings, the state has required local gas and electric utilities to pursue decarbonization not only by reducing the emissions of their electric supply but also by actively supporting gas load reduction. The residential heating sector dominates this effort, with programs like MassSave incentivizing customer adoption and now MA DPU 20-80-B requiring gas utilities to demonstrate that they have sufficiently evaluated the possibility of non-pipeline alternatives, including but not limited to electrifying customers instead of reinvesting in the gas system for all future gas investments.

This paper looks at a single Massachusetts utility, National Grid, and evaluates where its customers are switching to electric heat and which mechanisms are driving current adoption. It further evaluates where geographically National Grid could invest in electrification instead of replacing gas investments under the new 20-80-B order. In doing so it establishes a model for cost benefit calculations related to prospective NPA projects. This paper then examines the degree to which ongoing electrification efforts are aligned with one another. Finally, this paper explores concerns that the process of electrification might be regressive, leaving behind those who cannot afford to electrify their systems and leaving them to pay ever-increasing prices as the full gas system is paid for through rates from a decreasing population of consumers. In evaluation of such concerns, it determines the geographic correlation between ongoing decarbonization efforts and communities already facing housing burden.